Baker And McGlaughlin

A few more stats with your coffee. The blog looks at Kiaran McGlaughlin and Reade Baker.

Neither trainer shows "workouts" creating uncertainty as to training patterns. Yet, bet a large percent of your considerable estate that McGlaughlin trains "Lukas lite", with zero sum knowledge of athletics but great attention to detail. You will see, similar to Hennig, a lot of once a month racing on the website.

Reade Baker, who knows how he trains. For myself I refer to a photo of Baker's 2008 Derby prospect Bear Something Or Other which shows an underexercised, underfed stall baby of a horse, and also that everything I read concerning R. Baker is both unremarkable and a lot down right unimpressive. His stats confirm these notions.

The parameters: I skimmed all the Baker horses as only 117 are listed. McGlaughlin has untold hundreds. I looked at all McGlaughlin horses that raced in June and July 2008.

In looking at each horse I attempted from what shows to give every benefit of the doubt. E.g. if McGlaughlin has a horse that raced but twice last summer, won both and is foreign owned, I presumed it was pulled from McGlaughlin for overseas racing instead of injury. I gave several horses passes that quit racing in October which were probably/possibly rested, retired or moved.

Here they are:

Read Baker: Of the 117 only 22 had any significant number of races in 2008 although 15 of these show recent albeit brief careers. My calculation is that Baker had a 21.5% survival rate for the year from what showed, which I adjusted to 30-35% for the usual miscellaneous non-injury reasons.


McGlaughlin:

June 2008 horses: 26 raced which had a total of 70 races for 2008 which is 2.7 races per horse. There were only two apparent survivors (if you count Shakis after the BC) for 7% survival.

Peril of small sample. This is so god-awful unbelievable I decided to look at:

July: 37 raced 180 times in 2008 which is 4.86 races per horse(that's approaching an average of what we're seeing on all these websites). 11 survived or 30%.

Based on the greater number of horses in July, let's throw out June in looking at McGlaughlin. And, I'll give McGlaughlin more than the usual rope regarding miscellaneous reasons for horses quitting for the year due to his specific circumstances of training for a lot of foreign and persnickety owners. You have to also look at McGlaughlin's in the money percentage which appears to be superior in giving him some slack. The June stats haunt, but, I'd guess McGlaughlin gets a 40-45% survival rate for the year. I'm going to call it 45%.

Training:
Sat. 1/3 after layoff riderless 10 min. of play in the mud at speed
Sun. 1/4 5 x 2f pasture romping in :14s.
Mon: 1/5: Each horse trot-walks a mile.
Tues. 1/6: Each horse trot-galloped a mile ground still half frozen, then 1.5 miles continuous riderless gallop, snappy after warm up. 3 miles total.