As The Crow Flies

How nice would it have been to be lined up there along the rail at Turfway Saturday watching the post parade for any last minute handicapping tips, and seeing walk by the most impressive specimen (if the photos are true) since Bellamy Road and Unbridled's Song in Hold Me Back, followed shortly thereafter by a second physical and breeding standout, Flying Private, who has the most speed furlongs for the year in this field. Was there anything more obvious in Saturday's race than to put an exacta on those two and then maybe another $10 on the same, and if you can make it back to the windows, $50 more? Handicapping heaven!

For this blog, of course, there's the question whether the close training look at the field accomplished anything. Well, possibly Flying Private at 24-1 might have aroused our interest a bit and we would hardly, with the Claire Novaks of the world have written that F.P. was an "even greater surprise" than Hold Me Back. Hold Me Back was a surprise for those with their nose stuck in the form, but Flying P was just an unexplainable oversight...Query whether a faster breezing would have allowed F.P. to hang on?

The training analysis otherwise seems upside down as all the horses truly trained finished in reverse order. My explanation below. But, for the period when the blog gets to performance is it an interesting question why horses such as Parade Clown, Orthodox, and Proceed B, who put up such a spirited performance around the final turn, fail to go on? We'll never know whether these horses would have run to the wire had they been a bit more stoutly trained. That is, of course, the question. Can we train lesser horses such as Orthodox to run with the likes of Hold Me Back trained presumably (and, hopefully) far softer?

A.P. Arrow and Bittel Road. I am without any explanation, althoughthe connections, you'd think, know what happened.

Avoid belaboring further for now except to note immodestly my "Conclude:..." final paragraph at the end of the last post proved spot on. More similar training analysis hopefully in the future. Methodology needs some tweaking perhaps. For now, the horse the analysis identified having the most speed furlongs for the year, Flying Private, was right there at the wire.

Training:
Fri. 3/20 Off
Sat. 3/21 Art: 60 days before the planned for first race Art accomplishes his first official breeze as about 1.5f in :13s. Went 3x2f with trot backs along the course in the 3/16 video as much of our track remains muddy from the foot of rain 2 weeks ago.
Rod: First gallop since Tues. goes 3 x 2f along same course fastest in about :17.
Sun: 3/21: Sticking our necks out a bit as the horses wind up doing more than planned, and probably a little more than they should, which violates every RR rule. I "think" they can do this workout, whereas the rules require 100% certainty that the horse can survive the workout.
Art: Trot, walk, slow gallop about 10 min. after yesterday's short speed work. He'd have an off day, but lots of rain coming in.
Rod: wanted to breeze, but this horse needs more practice before we call what he did today breezing. Rod has regressed again. 3 x 2f with trot backs fastest in about :15.
I was unhappy with the tack work and with rain coming in and the horses fat due to eating grass, I thought neither horse had done enough. Both horses then were driven riderless for a volume of about 3 miles in about 3f segments at 85-90% speed. I was redlining here, particularly with Art who has been off. Decidedly other than smart, and I was besmirching myself for this improvising on the fly idiocy the rest of the evening.
Mon. 3/22: We've now missed three days of predicted rain, and it's dry into evening with rain showing every day for the next 5. I drive to the farm and drive them riderless, just to get in some work, slow about 3 miles total volume with a bit of rest in between.