KY Derby Contenders (Preliminary Look)

"...what we were summoned here to do, we knew but have forgotten."--Lemurs in chorus while digging Faust's grave.

Pretenders last post, and now the contenders!. Needing PPs to analyze training. And, will rain interfere with the Derby? They'll have our sympathy.

Workout videos and more suddenly appeared on KY Derby website. I'm already hedging on Godolphin based on the video, recalling though, this is the trainer of Discreet Cat

Blog readers, the one or two of you, know I've feared the Sheik and want to keep Mohammed away from the exercise physiology labs. But, 2008 Breeder's Cup results indicate possible change in thought process since the days of Discreet Cat and the World Cup. The Sheik wants things his way, and more power to him, but at some point Saeed Bin Suroor was summoned to the palace:

Sheik: Saeed, I'm going broke with your training.

Saeed: My apologies, your majesty. Unknown what is going wrong.

Sheik: Gosden says you should pay more attention to exercise physiology.

Saeed: Exercise physiology?

Sheik: Yes.

Saeed: Instead of genetics?

Sheik: Yup. comply or fall on your sword.

Regal Ransom and Desert Party breeze fast, as appears necessary against this field, but also looked good and very very strong. Maybe we have a Godolphin factor to consider!

Who remains in the preliminary look:

1. Friesan Fire: Blog readers understand my views on the trainer. But, this horse has ability! Can a talented horse beat best field ever off a layoff and a few recent quality works? Maybe boils down to last breeze going fast or slow. A Hard Spun type final breeze, imo FF right in there. Anything slow, up the track.


2. Chocolate Candy: Impressed me since day one despite dangerously long pasterns. Nice balance, ground eating stride, seemingly superior training but that CC raced only once since January naggs. Did what seems a new Dorf blow it right there? Need to look at PPs carefully later!

3. Pioneer Of The Nile: very obvious favorite.

4. Papa Clem: Chinks in the armor start showing. Stute has done/did a great job, but possible Eion Harty disease operating. PC way too slow for this field and needed significant speed work. Never got it. He'll be unable to catch the cavalry charge.

5. Musket Man: trainer seemingly knows what he's doing, and a good horse. Hmmm...

6. Dunkirk: For 4 million dollars could they get the horse to Churchill a little sooner? Interesting lab rat here--can a very talented horse beat best field ever off Plecher powder puff 5f breezes? Common sense says negative. We'll see.

7. Advice: The significance of the recent big win keeps on showing!

The winner? Training shows similar this year, but look at nuances later. Given relative sameness of the track work, will talent(speed) out in 2009, and if so, which has the most talent?

Throw out Plechers as lacking bottom to run all the way to the wire. Possibly add Godolphin with Chocolate Candy, and FF as right in there all the way, and a Musket bearing down. Baffert is this year's Nafzger. I'm unable to see him losing.

Training:
Sat. 4/25 rain just holds off. Rod's foot was padded with cotton and he successfully performed a little riderless work--first in a week. Art galloped back and forth on the only usable part of the track--about 1 1/4 miles then did about 2 miles riderless in muddy :15s.
Sun: 4/26: Art: off. Rod walk trotted under tack for about 10 min as ground conditions limit again.