More Derby

2007-2009 analysis analysis indicated that although high number of speed works for the year/speed furlongs for the year type horses might finish behind the winner, by and large they're in the race gate to wire compared to their less exercised peers. For 2010: total number speed work (races/breezes) furlongs for the year:

90 American Lion

85 Awesome Act: estimated--they seem to breeze once a week.

74 Back Talk

102 Conveyance

85 Deans Kitten

75 Discreetly Mine

89 Dublin by D.W. (I don't work horses, Lukas). Close exam shows how competition these

days forces Lukas's hand, and how he literally outsmarts himself in trying to prepare his horse.

"Dublin is a little better than people think" by Lukas. May be. May be.

78 Homeboy Kris--query whether horses that have had problems should be running in the KY Derby.

68 Ice Box--consider whether a horse that has 4 speed works for the year in excess of 4f is a horse you'd want any $$$ on.

70 Jackson Bend. Easiest way to ruin a good one--politeness prevents an answer.

100 Line of David: are you surprised the highest worker won Arkansas Derby? Yet, i've seen horses looking as uncomfortable as this one in his last work there at Churchill. Probably something wrong. Hesitate to the windows on this one.

74 Lookin at Lucky: Baffert went light this year. Too light with Pioneer of the Nile, and even lighter this year. Baffert is getting old, or he knows something. Also possible a horse through a long campaign might respond. More on Lucky later.

88 Make Music For Me

73 Mission Impazible Typical Plecher undertraining

58 Noble's Promise Any surprise this great horse is hitting the wall? When you hire a trainer is it necessary to recognize the difference between a trainer and a used car salesman?

66 Paddy O'Prado (includes 12/31) Only 61 for the year. Romans is another of those on my "list".

84 Sydney's Candy

86 Stately Victor

62 Super Saver. Anybody think u can win Derby with nearly lowest # of speed F for the year?

There you have it. Rank 'em tomorrow.

Training:

Mon. 4/26. Off 6 days due to weather.

Tues. 4/27 10 min pasture romp as good as conditions allowed, which was very little, but a few slow spurts after the off time. 10 min tack walk.

Wed. 4/28 Paddock has blown dry in 30 mph winds. 10 min riderless play to bet back into it. Passed on tack work due to spook in wind.