BCIV

BC Classic week! For the reason of looking at Plecher's seemingly sensical program focus on Quality Road, above in a Plecher bridle, as an older more heavily bodied horse launching considerable weight around the race track.

Is Plecher's program a sufficient conditioning job to allow this big horse to go all out 1.25 miles? A brief look tomorrow at the"no brainer" view of who will win the BC Classic!

For now Plecher's program in terms of fracture resistance (FR). Plecher gives 2-3 weeks off of speed work post race ostensibly to permit healing mini stress fractures before recommencing serious speed work, with the idea to keep the horse running. Logical exceptPlecher has one of the highest permanent injury rates going. What's the explanation?

The problem, it seems to me, with Plecher's training schematic is that, although the post race period off from speed work is logical in a general sense, when this is combined with Plecher'sbare minimum program (see last post--and the numbers will be expanded upon next week), many horses--especially in the early stages of training, see Dunkirk, are below the minimum level of volume and frequency needed for FR.

What about QR. Is he likely another Plecher victim?

Looking at QR's specific program, if you grade it in terms of FR--my guess--QR passes. Another look:

11 July: 5f 1:00

18 July 5f 58.3

26 July 5f 58.4 (after exceptional work, they wait 8 days.)

1 August 5f 1:00 Only 5 days. Un Plecher like. Due to race coming.

7 August: Whitney 1 1/8 mile. All this gets them a second to Blame.

22 August: 4f: 51.4 over slop: 15 days later! Note that this speed is insufficient for

FR by my calculation.

29 August: 5f 1:00

4 Sept. Woodward 1 1/8 miles: twice in a row Plecher breezes the horse 5 days out from the race! A win!

25 Sept. 4f: 49.2 This time they wait 3 weeks.

3 Oct. 5f: 1.01.1

10 Oct. 5f 1.01

17 Oct. 6f 1:13.2 Nice work by the jock. Without a doubt Plecher instructed slightly slower that :12s, and that is what they got!

24 Oct. 1.01.2 BC getting close. Do they rachet things up as they did for the Whitney. Negative.

They're breezing slower now!

31 Oct. 4f: 48.3

We need look at QR's entire program. And we recall that QR was in Jerken's more strenuous program before hitting Plecher's barn. My guess, there were fairly sound legs there beforePlecher ever got he horse. Once FR is achieved it is harder to lose, and Plecher's bare minimums might well have 1. maintained what was there, and 2. added to it over time provided Plecher was meeting bare minimums with the horse.

The recent works above indicates that this may be exactly what has occurred with QR. The nice series of works between July 11 and the Whitney--unusual for Plecher in terms of frequency and speed--were probably enormously beneficial to the legs of QR. Thereafter, there was a fairly decent FR maintenance program. My guess-and will avoid the exercise--if everything were calculated--i.e. QR's whole program from the beginning of the year--QR would be one of those horses just barely on the good side of the minimums for FR. Thus, probably, it would be unnecessary to worry about a serious fracture for QR at this point. I say "probably" because will decline here to do the actual calculations. There is some concern because, again, this trainer even with this horse, is riding on bare minimums for FR.

Tomorrow: Who will win the Classic.

Training: Rod, the last few sessions has basically checked himself out of the program. Riderless he refuses to start, and when we finally get him going he pulls himself up unless I am right there beside him hurling clods. You always fear this with a lazy horse. We're trying to figure out ways to get him motivated again. Luckily he enjoys tack work. Last evening we needed a fast work, and decided to try one furlong bursts with rest periods. The idea was to get the horse competitive. Though Rod now refuses to run with his older companion, late in the speed work sequence last night he did get into it a little.

Tues. 11/2: Rod shoeing takes longer than expected. We wind up trotting for 10 min. in the dark.

Wed. 11/3: riderless--9 x 1f as fast as we could make him go, see above. Some small part of this was full speed. Due to 7:00 p.m. meeting insufficient time for tack work this night.