Thursday, December 30, 2010

Circumstantial Evidence, Frequency, Fracture Resistance

(Bit of a hurry today. On comment, last post--yes, I did look at Mike Marshall's(Dodger reliever some years back)baseball pitcher work about 5 years ago. It interested me because in baseball a Q similar to horse racing: pitchers do little for your team when they're on the disabled list, and M. Marshall recognizes unlike most of the conventionals in the sport. (changing a bit in some orgs as Tampa Bay and Boston!) Seemed me, my recollect, and why I never followed up, Marshall deals more in kinesiology than physiology. Interesting though! More Than A Reason who races a lot and keeps going. Snow ball rolling down the hill if you can keep them running imho!)
For some time I'd thought that 7 days may well be the minimum speed work frequency required to get and maintain fracture resistance (FR). The direct evidence provided by bone physiology points in that direction, though, yet to be finalized. Needed next to look at the circumstantial evidence provided by the trainer stats. Do the stats e.g. also point to 7 day frequency for FR?
Put same Q another way: do trainers averaging more than 4.3 speed works per month have better injury records than those averaging less?
In this sense take note--of the stats looked at--there's Bill O'Gorman, and there's the rest. Only O'Gorman averages more than 4.3 speed works per month, and, unsurprisingly, O'Gorman also has the superior injury record. Raises the interesting Q--why would a horse ever be trained differently than O'Gorman training? Try to answer that at some point.
Of the trainers analyzed they are all pegged as "conventional trainers" except two: Lukas and O'Gorman, who stand out due to signficant differences in their training, and because they fail in regards to the definition of the conventional trainer provided here:
So, now a brief look at Lukas and O'Gorman compared to the rest as exemplified by Catherine Day-Phillips who, though defined and pegged as a conventional trainer, provides a cookie cutter consistency (similar to e.g. Mark Hennig), that allows easy analysis. We've already seen that Day-Phillips gets consistent injury stats in the years 2008 and 2010, and that her training in 2010 remains the same as in 2008.
Day-Phillips per last post has a superior injury rate because for the early 5 month of her program she mostly sends the horse for speed work at least every 7 days. While her average rage of frequency for these early months is a little short at about 3.6 times per month, this is solely due to short periods of off time for the first 3 very spaced out races which skewers the stats. Omit those and the Day-Phillips frequency stats for the early months of training will be right on 4.3 per month. AND she achieves the near 33% permanent injury rate of O'Gorman who breezes and races much more frequently. The Q then: is the 4.3/month the frequency we may point to for our minimums??? Day Phillips training certainly provides evidence for this supposition!!!
Training:
Wed. 12/29: Off. Rain.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've been reading your posts, and
I trust your work,but I'm shocked
that D. Wain Lucus has a 38%, and can't wait for his breakdown of method. You stated that you had to
pull the info from him,I wonder what he didn't give up?
Rich

12/30/10, 2:18 PM  

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