Saturday, May 21, 2011

"Bring It On! He's Ready"

Kathy Rivo quote in TB Times

I like the way she talks. Although I worry about her colt. Had been Animal Kingdom done a 4f breeze Monday would anybody be even thinking about any other horse than AK for the Preakness?
Which raises the interesting, continuing, question. Is G. Motion and his trainer type correct to avoid Derby to Preakness breezing and instead "just galloping" because that's "all he needs". Will this produce a Preakness winning performance? Or, have Ritvo, Baffert and their sorts got it right to do a quick breeze, in Ritvo's case the ideal 4 days out from the race? Tom Ivers idea was that the point of super compensation--time of max bounce--from a breeze is 4 days out.
Animal Kingdom:
Sun. 5/8 off.
Mon. 5/9: off
Tues. 5/10 off
Wed. 5/11 went to track. presumably trotted.
Thurs.: 5/12 trot clockwise 1.5 miles
Fri. 5/13 1/2 m trot 1 m gallop.
Sat. 5/14 1/2 m trot 1 m gallop
Sun. 5/15 presumably 1.5 m g (no Paulick notes this day)
Mon. 5/16: 1.5 m g
Tues. 5/17 1.5 m g
Wed. 5/18: 1.75 m g.
Thurs. 5/19: 1/2 m trot 1.25 m g
Fri. 5/20 1.5 M g

The speeds are unknown but based on the DRF Wed. vid I'd guess none of those gallops reached a sustained 2 minute lick. If you're trying to win the Preakness with a very talented horse, does this work?

Give G. Motion credit for getting his horse out of his stall. That contrasts with Brother Derek a few years back barely making it to the track between Preakness and Derby. Maybe gone, by and large, are the days of completely idiot trainers, with a notable exception here and there.

Yet, suspecting history would show, if I'd done the research, that a horse winning the Preakness without working between Derby and Preakness is close to non-existent. I have forgotten if Rachel Alexandra breezed pre-Preakness. Mostly, I have observed, it just never happens.

The physiological reason for this should be fairly obvious. Can you avoid speed work for 14 days and expect your horse to go all out for the Preakness distance. To think so is absurd and thus the q: what are these trainers thinking?

However, hardly less than Bob Baffert himself was quoted a day or so ago: AK is in a zone, he's a great horse, he'll win the Preakness. Plenty of horses have put in inexplicable performances in terms of physiology.

This Preakness for me--without even checking the PPs--comes down to Mucho and AK. Will be interesting. Dialed In an automatic throw out. If he wins, will be interesting to look at Zito's handling. Shakelford--pretty much the AK story. That colt needs speed work that he'll never get in Roman's barn. Too bad. Great horse. Best guess is Ritvo, if her colt holds together, he is "ready".

Training:
After nice riderless speed work Fri. morn we're hoping for tack work despite rain this eve.

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