I'll Have Another Belmont Prep

And so,

What are they doing with IHA, and what think we Preston Burch devotees?

Journalistic coverage of the event, and, let us try to find the good in everything, no news is good news, am supposing.  There is one vid out there showing IHA almost all the way around the race track on the Steve Haskin's blog and a few snippets in DRF, and one, (I believe that's "one") galloping vid on the Blood Horse.

I've seen enough to identify what the horse is probably doing.  Best that can be told, IHA is exercising a total of 1.5 miles per day including his trot.  Haskins reports, quite incorrectly imo, that IHA on a daily basis is doing :12s down the lane and extending that speed in the gallop out.  With all due regard to Haskins and his stop watch--and, why do u need a stop watch when there's a clock right below the UTube vids?--I believe I know a :14 sec/f gallop when I see one.  The mile+ that IHA has been galloping is basically a half in :20s to :16s--speeds up as he goes, and :14s and maybe a tad faster here and there in the last 1/2 mile.

Will that sort of workout get u the Triple Crown?

Doubtful imo for reasons below.

Open the analysis concerning some thought in jest that Doug O'Neill has been reading some "blogs" and ratchet up IHA training in response, presumably in old time training style of such as Max Hirsch/Preston Burch/Sunny Jim Fitzimmons et. al. Assault and his rigorous workout schedule was mentioned.

Let's recall that into the Derby IHA did a series of nice breezes.And, indeed, there are UTube vids out there of IHA galloping into Derby and Preakness showing far more rigorous gallops than those at Belmont Park.  Add two long strenuous races in two weeks and you have a marvelous fit animal, comparatively speaking, coming out of the Preakness.  To seal the TC, you'd think the trainer would take advantage of the Preakness bounce, physiologically speaking, as the trainer reports zero drop in energy levels, cleaning up the feed, high energy horse, etc.

Given the 8ball situation, naturally u'd back off the week after Preakness with the rational thought to start back up in week #2 that just passed.

Decline to set out what IHA should be doing since there are many different ways to peel the apple to roughly the same result.  Focus on what the horse "is" doing and the probable outcome.

With my own horse Groovin' Wind I'm likely one of the national experts at the :14 sec gallop since Wind for year upon year, that is his speed.  In his runaway days early on that speed would be carried for a mile or two till we could get him stopped and eventually ended in a developing saucer fracture.  When Wind came back, same deal.

The problem as I discovered it is when the horse likes the :14s it's a little difficult to get him out of that.  And, while :14 sec/f is hardly slow, it's other than fast.  This specifically fails to be speed training.  Good for stamina/ highly questionable for speed.

In the case of IHA we're doing this for 3 weeks going into what promises to be a highly competitive race.  The horse will have 3 weeks of adoption of his stride to the :14 sec. speed and from what shows max for about 1/2 a mile.

Certainly IHA is losing race fitness instead of maintaining or improving.  How much can he lose in 3 weeks and how much can he lose and still beat this bunch will be the Q.  The additional Q is what O'Neill will do in the next week.  If the work crescendos faster and longer that might bring IHA back.

The conventional trainer will, of course, criticize the forgoing as they like to repeat ad nauseum that the horse is fit.  My reply is that fitness fluctuates with what the horse does on track and lots of it can be lost in 3 week.

Meanwhile, the horse pictured above looks like he's been doing some work (Union Rags taken a couple weeks ago), and I'd certainly believe Dulahan is poised.  Dale Romans.  Who'd have ever thought?