Preliminary Derby Musings

Re watched Florida Derby won by Orb vs. It's My Lucky Day whose trainer Edward Plesa apparently at last moment realized his horse training for Florida Derby insufficient --as well as his prior statement that horse is fit and all we have to do is keep him happy--today breezes 1 mile in 1:43+ at Calder with another breeze planned before Derby--bringing up Q of what's getting into these fellows?

Orb appears the bigger more athletic animal, although, unlike many who have Orb picked for Derby personally I'd avoid getting carried away with a victory over an insufficiently trained colt with first six f going at slower than :12 fractions.  Orb--if I'm recalling correctly--was doing all this off 4f breezes which, logically, u'd think if the horse were pressed a bit off that kind of work Orb would fade like a blade of grass in our last year's drought.

Most impressive performance I've seen was put in by the magnificent horse in the photo at risk due to his weight on his white legs and his trainer.  Purely on breeding, power, proportion and a great stride Will Take Charge deserves serious consideration, I'd think.  Q whether DW Lukas can still train, and also whether the horse already has some problems since they avoid racing him since last win at Oaklawn.   Blinkers to me indicate they were having trouble of some kind with the horse at some point.  Horse of this size will carry weight so easily he'll be a threat. Hopefully they'll be some vids of WTC working at Churchill to allow some additional analysis.

Meanwhile 32 degrees F + mud in KCMO on morning of April 19.