The Contenders

PPs show one horse with recent blow away performances--CA Chrome--who also has a couple of stinkers in there-- verses a bunch of Pletcher horses all giving lights out type appearances, and a couple of others.  I rewatched all the Chrome vid, and actually found a site--the Thoroughbred Daily News--that has superb vids of all the horses from throughout the week.  There link is at bottom  of this post. Meanwhile, Blood Horse, DRF, and Paulick report continue to seem unable to figure the Derby vid angle.

My closer views of CA Chrome reveal a few more pimples the most significant being, imo, although Chrome looks good galloping at Churchill, he's motoring through that surface with more effort than a lot of these.  Some horses have a stride that gets lost in a deeper surface.  Watch his vids and compare to how easily in comparison all of Plecher's are getting over and through the surface.

Combine this with Chrome's less than stellar work schedule--he shows only 4f works, and at least the second to last of these show purely a 4f work without lenghty gallop out--one begins to conceive that this horse might be short at 1.25 miles.  Chrome red flags.

Possibly if this is correct and Chrome is taken down a notch or two by surface and inferior training, we have the type of evenly matched field that promises-as in 2013--another Orb flying out of nowhere. Since identifying this year's Orb is well nigh impossible given how evenly these show, the RR review will stick out its ancient neck and predict that one of the Plecher horses will win this race.

So, yes, I'm likely picking against Chrome.  Will make a final selection in the morning after handicapping the PPs.

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The serious contenders:

Samraat--After watching the vids I removed S from my throw outs.  Despite my prejudice against works 8 days out (how often is this training method successful against better--really?)--that last work was at a mile and in a decent time.  This horse just has too much 1.25 mile type talent to be a throwout.  He looks terrific, his gallops are strong which somewhat makes up for the inferior spacing of the speed work.  I expect S to be right there.

Danza--vids show him skipping over this race track.  High energy colt at top of his game. D lacks the 1.25 mile type conformation, and yet the horse gives every appearance of sitting on a big big race.  Expert trainer with good pre-race warm up.

Dance With Fate--another giving off good vibes, and yet, do we pick a horse whose trainer is unable to figure out how to keep his tongue in mouth. Last Derby winner that went around there with his tongue handing out?  Good horse at top of game.  Might be right there with good trip.

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The Rest

Uncle Sigh--my personal sentimental favorite, being an Indian Charlie type as our #17.  Well put together horse, very decent training, and yet, gives feel--similar to #17--of being a good instead of great horse.  Add that Contessa and Violette have shown year after year that their horses tend to fade instead of advance, unable to see it, although must note that both these trainers as many others are experiencing a training renaissance likely from the pressure of competition.  Reluctantly must pass on Uncle S.

Candy Boy--dislike the handling this horse receives.  Appearance of horse seems other than KY Derby winner type. PPs show--stride for stride he's generally behind instead of ahead.  Developing horse that might be in there.  In this field, doubtful, imo.

Chitu--the good:  Baffert trained.  the bad:  too big and massive to compete at the distance.

Intense Holiday:  1.25 mile type conformation and stride.  IH stride also seems highly attuned to this type surface. Somewhat doubtful that this colt gives off aura of serious athlete.

Medal Count:  I've admired Dale Romans type training.  This horse, like Chitu, just too massive to carry his weight for the distance.

Closer look at PPs tomorrow.  Will CA Chrome get tag teamed into submission?

TDN (Thoroughbred Daily News) nice vids here:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9Pkkcii-bmKOhlobqJlug