Final Thoughts...(Edited)

In general, this is the no brainer, see and believe your eyes Derby, that might be compromised by mud. This race contains zero dogs and 20 good horses with two exceptional standouts. If you're trying to distrust what you see and nitpick against Big Brown and Colonel John, cease, desist and do believe your eyes that these are two of the best colts that have been out there.

First, the final training grades. How'd the trainers do, relatively speaking?

A
Colonel John--parts of that last breeze were a 1:45 mile.

A- Bob Black Jack
Pyro

B+
Big Brown
Dennis of Cork (I will reduce this grade below.)(edit: track closed 5/3. DOC keeps his grade)

B Eight Belles (a lot is unknown, but you can judge by appearance here.)

B- Adriano
Big Truck
Tale of Ekati

C+ Court Vision--Mott's horses are downgraded due to weak training before April.
Z Humor
Z Fortune--too soft of late

C Visionaire
Monba
Cowboy Cal

C- Gayego
Recapturetheglory--I'm doubting the 2 mile work will rescue him.

D Cool Coal Man
Anak Nakal

No grade--Smooth Air.

How's RR see the race: Eliminate Zito's as graded too low. Smooth Air unfortuately is out. Dennis of Cork is eliminated and downgraded to C+ training due to that planned (ridiculous) 1 1/8 mile trot on Derby morning. Now we know why the horse was flat as a pancake in Illinois. Ditto Visionaire who's also trotting a mile Derby Morning. (Edit: Sat. morning the track closed due to weather.)

I expect effort out of Tagg's pair. I think they'll extend their gallops, but in the end believe they'll struggle like No Biz last year. Consistency. Adriano should be flying around the quarter pole before his training meets up with the stronger. By the 1/8 pole I'd expect anybody with a grade of C+ or worse above to have hit the wall in terms of lactic acid build up. The trained horses will go on--Pyro, Colonel John and Big Brown, (edit: Dennis of Cork), and quite possibly Bob Black Jack. BBJ will be physically out gamed, I fear, and Asmussen in the final strides might well finally pay for his powder puff stuff.

(Edit: Dennis of Cork? Kept off the track 5/3 he becomes dangerous. Only handicapping intution keeps me from putting this one right close at the wire. Enough talent and training to control the race but for the top two. This one should wilt under pressure from the top two.)

That leaves Colonel John and Big Brown. Dutrow has made some errors. Will BB pay for them in the end is the question. I believe so, and CJ will go on to win.

(As an aside: the crow is in the pot and will broil through the afternoon for possible consumption just in case any horse rated less than B- should win, including Dennis of Cork.)