Preventing Eight Belles
Will we get any carefully thought out analysis of the extent to which horse racing screwed up this past weekend and what might be done to prevent? Will be interesting what we get from such as Dan Liebman, Steven Haskin, Tom Hammonds, Mike Battaglia. Alan at Left at the Gate who left a comment here last post is one of those with the ability to put this in perspective.
Interesting in my last post that we get a comment from a young exercise physiologist. I'd say Bill stated the general problem rather succinctly. For Alan, I feared that in the jumble of this blog my caveat on the trainer ratings would be lost. I should have repeated it in the final grades. In the 5/1/07 "Best Training Jobs" post I prefaced by noting "This post will evaluate performance potential instead of injury prevention". There's a (big) difference. Had I rated the training in terms of injury prevention, from what showed, Jones probably would have been last, though I've yet to look at that closely.
Preferring to avoid the blog becoming a siren to impending disaster except in situations of gross negligence (Rags, Eight Belles), I've declined to date to post my injury concerns before major races. I'll note simply my belief that had the entire Derby field been pressed to the extent of Eight Belles several others might possibly have gone down.
That's were horse racing is at right now. It's other than a Larry Jones-Rick Porter problem.
Consider:
1. War Pass in the Wood was a few strides from a similar disaster.
2. Ditto Rags to Riches in last year's Belmont where post race they reported a fracture in a hind.
3. George Washington was utterly unprepared for what he was asked to do in the Breeder's Cup.
4. Pine Island's pasterns were a disaster waiting to happen, and yet a top trainer and owner chose to go on with her.
5. Careful attention to the fact that Barbaro was failing to switch leads in all of his early races switched in the Florida Derby only when forced by circumstances should have alerted those connections to an impending problem.
6. Would you send any of these lightly trained colts to the Preakness without full diagnostic evaluation, nuclear scans, etc?
These disasters are other than a "deal with it situation". Horse racing despite it's lack of resources is able to structure itself institutionally to prevent 80-90% of these breakdowns, and it should never happen in a nationally televised race except to the extent that a breakdown would indeed be a freak accident.
Here are some random thoughts on what might be done:
1. Research begins on minimum training standards necessary to avoid injury.
2. Minimum standards established.
3. Transfer research from veterniarians to trained exercise physiologists.
4. Any trainer that has a horse break down in a race suffers immediate probation pending investigation of pre-race training, diagnostics, violation of established standards, and appropriate suspension where negligence is found.
5. Televised races would involve more stringent standards training. A George Washington should never get into the Breeder's Cup, nor an Eight Belles in the Derby.
7. State Vets need to be given additional pre-race diagnostic tools in major races beyond the use of their hands, including infra-red thermography, and certainly for such as the Derby or Breeder's Cup, nuclear scanning.
6. Horse protection needs to become the #1 priority: Stewards, Race Track Executives, State Vets, Racing Commissions, NTRA.
Training:
We've been at it. Nob reports break through tack work with Art last night.
Interesting in my last post that we get a comment from a young exercise physiologist. I'd say Bill stated the general problem rather succinctly. For Alan, I feared that in the jumble of this blog my caveat on the trainer ratings would be lost. I should have repeated it in the final grades. In the 5/1/07 "Best Training Jobs" post I prefaced by noting "This post will evaluate performance potential instead of injury prevention". There's a (big) difference. Had I rated the training in terms of injury prevention, from what showed, Jones probably would have been last, though I've yet to look at that closely.
Preferring to avoid the blog becoming a siren to impending disaster except in situations of gross negligence (Rags, Eight Belles), I've declined to date to post my injury concerns before major races. I'll note simply my belief that had the entire Derby field been pressed to the extent of Eight Belles several others might possibly have gone down.
That's were horse racing is at right now. It's other than a Larry Jones-Rick Porter problem.
Consider:
1. War Pass in the Wood was a few strides from a similar disaster.
2. Ditto Rags to Riches in last year's Belmont where post race they reported a fracture in a hind.
3. George Washington was utterly unprepared for what he was asked to do in the Breeder's Cup.
4. Pine Island's pasterns were a disaster waiting to happen, and yet a top trainer and owner chose to go on with her.
5. Careful attention to the fact that Barbaro was failing to switch leads in all of his early races switched in the Florida Derby only when forced by circumstances should have alerted those connections to an impending problem.
6. Would you send any of these lightly trained colts to the Preakness without full diagnostic evaluation, nuclear scans, etc?
These disasters are other than a "deal with it situation". Horse racing despite it's lack of resources is able to structure itself institutionally to prevent 80-90% of these breakdowns, and it should never happen in a nationally televised race except to the extent that a breakdown would indeed be a freak accident.
Here are some random thoughts on what might be done:
1. Research begins on minimum training standards necessary to avoid injury.
2. Minimum standards established.
3. Transfer research from veterniarians to trained exercise physiologists.
4. Any trainer that has a horse break down in a race suffers immediate probation pending investigation of pre-race training, diagnostics, violation of established standards, and appropriate suspension where negligence is found.
5. Televised races would involve more stringent standards training. A George Washington should never get into the Breeder's Cup, nor an Eight Belles in the Derby.
7. State Vets need to be given additional pre-race diagnostic tools in major races beyond the use of their hands, including infra-red thermography, and certainly for such as the Derby or Breeder's Cup, nuclear scanning.
6. Horse protection needs to become the #1 priority: Stewards, Race Track Executives, State Vets, Racing Commissions, NTRA.
Training:
We've been at it. Nob reports break through tack work with Art last night.
posted by rather rapid at
8:30 AM
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2 Comments:
Yup, I did miss that; thanks for pointing it out.
So my main question is this: Were your concerns for Eight Belles based on the fact that she was a filly? Or on her particular bone structure and the nature of her training regimen?
Thanks!
I have developed such a test for 'minimum training standards' - it's basically the equine version of a human ekg/treadmill stress test.
All 47sec half mile works are not the same. The horse's peak heart rate during the breeze, and recovery heart rate at 2, 5, and 10 min post exercise are the benchmarks I record and analyze.
If a horse cannot recover to an 80bpm heart rate within 10 mins, he/she is not fit for the half mile work, much less a 6F or longer race in the same week timeframe.
I've tested several horses to date, and had ZERO past this test. IMO, because the breezes are spaced too far apart to spur a training effect.
The test requires no equipment other than what I have, and takes less than 30sec to set up.
Also, if a horse has a resting heart rate 10% above normal for a few consecutive days, there is something wrong internally. This would require at least a 5 day benchmark reading initially, however. I promise all of these broken down horses would have failed both of these tests.
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