"I Can't Pick Against Square Eddie"

Jason Shandler and his famous last words regarding today's San Rafael Stakes from "That Handicapping Show" on Bloodhorse.com. Might we be so bold to declare, having examined the website of SE trainer Doug O'Neill as well as recalling the performance of other O'Neill Derby prospects as Azul Leon, and the Reddam owned 2007 triumvirate of Great Hunter, Notional, and Liquidity, that indeed we "can" pick against SE (appearing second in the photo to Midshipman), and that picking against an O'Neill/Reddam horse here seems logical.

The real drama of the San Rafael to me will be how long Paul Reddam will stick around in the Doug O'Neill barn. Based on past performance I've wondered whether Reddam has unbelievable patience or whether he's just dumb. I'll avoid taking a position on that and simply believe that, barring O'Neill significantly changing his training colors, a Reddam split with O'neill is on the horizon with the 2009 San Rafael intriguingly and possibly the proverbial final straw.

SE could of course run to his class and experience. Could happen. But, I'll stick out my neck a bit a forecast that another horse will run down SE. Our good handicappers might want to look closely at that Whittingham type trainer in here named Stute. Though Frankel's horses always are dangerous, seems to me that Papa Clem sits here as a very live long shot.

San Rafael free PPs are embedded in this post:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2009/01/16/analysis-of-the-san-rafael-stales.aspx

Training:

Tues 1/13 to Fri. 1/16 4 days off due to sub-zero weather. It snowed Friday. We decline to gallop them over the snow-hard ground combo.