Optimizing Derby Performance

Performance variables:

Talent
Conditioning in several parameters--volume, spacing, speed, distance
Riders
Trainers
Husbandry
Misc. factors.

How do the variables affect this Derby? Let's get down it.

Kick this off by noting that (to me) Dunkirk looked anything but a happy camper out there track this morning, ...whereas in contrast may we need to heed Advice?

But, let's throw 'em out for real (as opposed to prelims here over the last weekend):

Horses below fail showing work tabs permitting them physically to compete with more trained horses regardless of talent. Any win from this group and RR transported to the alternate universe:

West Side Bernie
Atomic Rain
No Where to Hide
Hold Me Back
Summer Bird

Next, adequate, average trained part of the field where exceptional talent might overcome training deficiency:

First, throw out any with last pre-derby breeze before April 26 (4/25 or earlier) will suffer significant conditioning disadvantage against the top trained horses. An unreported two minute gallop or run down the lane since 4/25 would affect this. These last worked 4/25 or earlier and have had at least average training for the field(see last post):

Musket Man
Regal Ransom
Desert Party
General Quarters
Dunkirk

Note, Godolphin also trained Midshipman and Vineyard Haven. A nice couple of works for those two Godophins in a questionably conceived program, or so it appears. Musket =trainer with head on shoulders and stays in for now. Will they compete with Musket, or, just run?


Next, well or average trained horses with talent. How do we separate?

Advice
Friesan Fire
Papa Clem
Chocolate Candy
I Want Revenge
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private
Mr. Hot Stuff

Do any of the above show extremely (more than the rest) logical, beneficial work tabs that will produce conditioning and speed on Derby Day? Answer: yes, as follows:

1. Mr. Hot Stuff--6 breeze/races since 3/24 (39 days) or one speed event every 6.5 days. Each of these events is at near :12 sec/f speed. Ignore that one can quibble over the specific training. Comparatively this horse will go into the race as very strong and well conditioned.

2. Chocolate Candy--7 breeze races since 3/19 (44 days) or every 6.3 days with several Derby specific distances and at racing speed. Nice speed and distance work here. Last quick breeze 5 days out. Only 8 day gap in speed work between last race and next breeze--everything about CC indicates a horse that has been maintained in its strength, and aerobic and anaerobic work. Would be a shock if this horse was anything but very tough on Derby Day.

3. Pioneer Of The Nile: This horse has been doing Street Sense stuff in that the work tab only shows part of the distance worked. There is mile breeze work here that fails to show on the PPs. Different formula than CC. Should be fittest in here. Misc. concerns though, later.

4. Flying Private: Lukas, similar to the above, has maintained the fitness of this horse through the campaign. In contrast to the above there's little to suggest improving performance as they go. Lukas in this regard speaks of the pedigree. If FP is ok with his breathing--a question based on Lukas comments--expect a big race but out footed.

To Be Continued.