Red Flags In Plecher Training?

Had Dunkirk been trained to the point of race appropriate FR (fracture resistance)? Can D's fracture be blamed on the training?

Dunkirk apparently suffered a non-displaced fracture in the trabecular(soft) bone at the condylar (end) aspect of a hind cannon requiring but one screw for repair. Guessing then that there is but a single small crack.

The relatively innocuous nature of this probably rules out the bad step/blunt trauma scenario where the bone is rolled or crushed. Surmise thus D's bone simply gave way either due to pre-existing condition or from the normal stress of the race.

D's training then, and the manner of it in terms of achieving FR becomes highly relevant. Let's take a look.

On June 6, 2009, Belmont Day, Dunkirk PPs show 18 speed events over 118 speed furlongs since 1/1/09. In this respect D ranked in the upper 1/3 on Derby day:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2009/04/17-chocolate-candy-107-17-papa-clem-103.html

And, for speed work done 60 days pre-Belmont Dunkirk ranked in mid-field:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2009/06/handicapping-belmont.html

These charts show that lesser trained horses than D survived both races, BUT please note the fine distinction between lack of FR and a horse fracturing in any one particular race! A lot of cars drove over the bridge before the Minnesota bridge collapse, and horses in huge numbers survive races without necessary bone structure. Physics of the fracture process in solid materials indicate that they hold pretty well until the final moment of collapse.

The question for D therefore is solely whether FR is present or otherwise from the training.

The above math works out that since 1/1/09 Dunkirk performed 3.5 speed events per month and 23 speed furlongs per month. This calculates to one work EVERY 8.6 DAYS with an average distance per work of 6.6 furlongs. This includes races, of course.

My prior on "frequency"--how often the horse must do a speed event to achieve FR speculated that the minimum frequency is 8 days, and further that an 8 days frequency just barely gets there. Dunkirk's frequency is less than this minimum and obviously is also below minimum on this training to enter a 1.5 mile race where the horse is "sent" to run the distance.

I began the Dunkirk post speculating that I was considering the Plecher style training is a cut below that needed for FR. Although Dunkirk due to the timing of the TC preps, was worked more often and harder than a typical Plecher horse, the math and my speculations (thus far) do support this conclusion. Closer looks in coming posts!

Take note also the possiblity of another factor involved in D's fracture that will have to be looked at down the road . Plecher breezes never exceed 5f with minimal gallop out. D close to the Belmont performed two 4fs and one 5f. On this shaky foundation the horse was then "sent" 1.5 miles. We get here to Tom Ivers's concept of never surprising a horse by forcing it faster or farther than its training. Ivers reaction to what has passed here might be other than pretty.

Training: the quagmire continues at the farm. Some rain almost daily. The good news-- the horses gallop much stronger now than in the intro galloping in May. Our week's work:
Mon: 2.7 miles gallop. Art strong and fast on second heat. One short too slow spurt for Rod.
Tues. Off rain.
Wed. fast riderless heats in the mud. tough workout.
Thurs. Off. Connections pussy out in working on horrible ground.
Fri. Inner track trot-gallop slow on extremely soft grass to accommodate to rider weight after 4 days off from that. 2.3 miles.
Sat. Attempted speed work with Art on the inner track, still very soft. Got it, sort of but with several stumbles through deep mud. enough of that. Rodney was trot-galloped slow for a mile and then did two riderless miles in the mud in about :15s.