Handicapping The Belmont

With a little bit of extra time this Saturday morning, let's get to it. Galloping (speed event) for the last 60 days might be interesting here. Any of these particularly trained for 1.5 miles?

Last 60 days: # of events--horse--# of furlongs

8 Chocolate Candy 49
7 Mine That Bird 43
7 Flying Private 43
8 Mr. Hot Stuff 43
7 Luv Gov 40
7 Dunkirk 37
6 Brave Victory 28
5 Summer Bird 33
5 Charitable Man 25
5 Miners Escape 25

The usual suspects (trainers) at the bottom of the chart. Expect the usual result, and be shocked, surprised if these inexplicably win, horses overcoming their training: Throw out Zito and McGlaughlin. And, also Lukas, who has given his horse some work, but with the last of it 9 days out, how can the Lukas pair possibly compete against the rest? Lukas out.

Summer Bird? The training fails to make up a small talent deficit. There is an overall lack of bottom in training terms--lack of long term development--that will get this horse in the unlikely event he'll be competing in late stretch. Out.

This leaves Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy, Mine That Bird. That is a solid group of talented horses to consider in terms of intangibles such as pace, jockeys, work over the track, particular targeting of works that might make the horse dangerous, etc. To answer my own question--none is particularly trained for 1.5 miles, unless you consider MTB 2 mile galloping (which should have an effect), and so these four horses enter on fairly even terms.

First, we'd have to think that Charitable Man based on the nice Peter Pan will be part of the race. His trainer has already given him the "kiss of death". In all my time in racing I've yet to see a horse win whose trainer pre-race pronounces the horse as"fit". This generally provides reason for lack of work and a trainer that fails to understand the concept of improving an athlete to a race. Notably, Charitable Man was absent during the crucial Thurs. galloping. And, though talented, CM's talent fails to stand out particularly against the rest. A CM fade in early stretch, assuming he survives that long injury wise. Would shock me to see this horse go on.

But, CM will probably affect the race in that I'd suppose the other riders will need to be close enough to avoid a CM runaway. This effort to stay close to a fast pace is what probably will get Dunkirk. Can a horse giving little effort in the Derby, run 1.5 miles on two 4f breezes and one of 5f. Should D sustain his drive chasing a fast pace, this would be a slap in the face of we "trainers". Rags to Riches did it with steroids coming out of her ears. I'm looking forward to the puzzled look on Plecher's face. D out.

Mr. Hot Stuff provides the enigma. Quite obviously the horse has the genetic heritage, and combined with his work would seem as fit as the rest. Yet, he has a trainer who enjoys killing animals (fish) as a hobby and who seems unable to get past the concept of the 5f breeze. Hot Stuff should last 10f. Out.

So, can Chocolate Candy run down MTB??? Think Chip Woolley wishes he'd arrived a week sooner. Belmont requires extended lead work over longer turns which will negate for MTB some of that 2 mile galloping. Should be a factor that CC has trained on this track for a month.

Yet, per usual, Hollendorfer gets but part of the equation. CC fails to show any true speed work since the Derby. This imo would be a CC runaway with a significant 6/1 breeze. Never happened, and so CC will at best be on even conditioning terms with MTB, who had his last significant speed work 5/16. Per last post, there's little reason but to suppose that Borel will get MTB up at the wire. The biggest fear I have for MTB is that Woolley may have exhausted his horse. The Friday gallop in the mud may come back to haunt as I'd be unsurprised to see MTB run out of energy in the stretch. I'll have to reluctantly assume Woolley knows what he's doing in choosing MTB to win.

This is a tough race to handicap. Hopefully we'll get a good track and we'll see what we should have seen in the Derby--a heck of a race. Who fills the exotics. CC obviously. Who else is fit enough to be chugging at the end? A Lukas horse and Summer Bird might well sustain some sort of run. Best of handicapping luck to everyone!