Mon. Misc. Hos Epi To Polu

PREAKNESS:

Rachel Alexandra is certainly a nice horse. And yet, on this blog, RA was a pre-race throw out:

"...(s)he also has the weakest contender training Oaks to Preakness, basically runs :12s, has already undergone one operation, and has numerous obvious disadvantages going into the race. Borel will drive her, beyond her capability based on training imo. Out."

And so, the logic and observation by which this blob(blog) arrives at first principles requires some examination, at least with respect to Rachel Alexandra. What was going on here where a filly that "runs :12s" suddenly was running :11.8s on a "deep, heavy surface"?

There was a (mis)interpretation of RA PPs. I posted the horse appears capable of laying it down but has never been trained or raced to do so. The following video shows the error of this conclusion:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=36372

Rachel next meets the Pocahontas winner, the speedy Malibu Moon filly Sara Louise in the Goldenrod on 11/29/08, showing again the rough same fractions established in the Preakness, and also the Calvin Borel strategy in its development. Borel establishes a faster than the field cruising speed that cooks them by the quarter pole:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=36679

And, hence the RR error. By the time Rachel had reached age three and in the Fantasy at Oaklawn and in the Oaks, Rachel was so good it was unnecessary for her and Borel to "lay it down", "drive" "extend", however you refer, as she was achieving roughly the same fractions with a more upright bounding style. Instead of that she "was unable" due to training, the driving stride shown in the 2 year old races simply was unnecessary.

I was indeed aware that the above was a possibility given the fast fractions of the Pocahontas (which I'd discounted), but I conjectured that it had been so many months since those races that Rachel would be unable to instantaneously summon that same driving stride for any appreciable distance. I was incorrect in this, and will provide more explanation next post.

I'd also figured the colts in this race as capable of much faster than what showed in the race, and calculated that Rachel would wither in the face of a colt onslaught that never materialized at any point in the race. For this group of decently trained colts, none of them had the ability to quicken with Rachel past the quarter pole per the photo. What happened?

I notice three things:

1. The Borel ride from the get go that immediately got his filly into the race and competitive. You see this in Rachel's demeanor on the back stretch. She was racing, all the colts merely running. Personally I was shocked that none of the trainers chose to press this filly. I'm sort of gathering that Baffert did but the Pioneer failed to respond. Something happened injury wise to that horse.

2. The fractions, though just fast instead of suicidal, were at a cruising speed that took the colts out of their game. Rachel had been trained to do this by Borel, and it worked to a charm. The colts, most of them were done at the quarter pole. See Big Brown's Florida Derby to see the same phenomena. Credit the horse with the speed, but really its hardly all that overly fast. This is, again, Borel and what "racing" instead of running a horse along the backstretch at a steady speed will get you.

3. The unknown but important factor may have been the track surface. Another relevant RR excerpt:

"Rachel has ability and a weight advantage that becomes geometric on a heavy track."

The colts both intrinsically weigh more and also carried more lead, a combo that on the particular surface took its toll.

4. There's also logical explanation(and nice call) here for some of them:

http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com/2009/05/preakness-picks-based-on-synthetic-to.html

And so, congrats to all that picked the filly. The blog will be satisfied for its dismal handicapping with the hedge provided by Aristotle for ferreting out universal truths, given their difficulties and our limited abilities. We got it right Hos Epi To Polu "for the most part". More on Rachel Alexandra and the race, next post.