Mine That Bird: A Debt To Carl Nafzger?
We've seen that Birdstone/Grindstone act before. There were two Birdstones in that 2007 Oct. Fasig Tipton catalogue, as I'm recollecting. I would know, since I bought a horse out of that sale by internet-telephone bidding (thanks again to my Fasig Tipton phone bidder, Max.). My best recollect is that I (unwisely) scratched out both as potentially too expensive for further consideration, and also, if recalling right, for unraced dams, both Birdstones. Undoubtedly had I taken the (enormous) bother and traveled to Lexington for the sale I'd have spotted Mine That Bird but would have failed in the purchase as I had only $9000.00. (Note to myself--serious about the Derby, go to the sale in person.).
Can any sense be made out of this performance? Those of us who believe horses run for a reason will be looking for "causes" missed by even the true experts. For myself it all started with that April 25 video at KY Derby.com, the only 4 minute galloping clip of any of the horses, showing some horrible exercise riding (in initial part of gallop), so bad that I just flipped to the next video. I declined to watch what I considered as, understandably for MTB and his New Mexico trainer, the worst exercise rider on the grounds butchering a ride on a horse with no chance.
But, oh my! Now that I look at the whole 4 minutes, horse and rider recovered to show Mine That Bird both with "some stuff", and that MTB, unlike most of the rest of the field, was getting something out of his slow day galloping. This was other than a horse that was being trained out of his stall (check out 4/29 post!).
The second (rather huge) hint comes on 4/27 with the Calvin Borel breeze. Very decent coming down the stretch showing a strong, coordinated smaller horse who distracts with a surprise lead change before the wire, causing thought process: typically badly trained. What happens thereafter probably is crucial. As I continued to watch I had at the time the (fleeting) thought: Shades of Street Sense. After the horse crossed the wire Borel maintained speed clear into the back stretch were the video ends, but obviously was still going fast by the 4.5f pole. Same exact thing Nafzger instructed Borel to do with Street Sense in the pre-derby breezes. Clocked at 5f the breezes were in fact mile breezes. Borel had retained this and was still doing Nafzger training with Rachel Alexandra (who's last breeze shows the same), and his Derby mount. Essentially it was at this point that Borel had taken over the training. We may imagine the probable intellectual quality of Borel's pre-breeze instructions, undoubtedly instantly forgotten by Borel.
The Derby ride then proved to "out Street Sense" Street Sense. And again, analysis shows, this is other than an accident. MTB was tremendously aided by Borel's unwitting taking back of the horse in the initial stages. Out of the gate, just subsequent to their inappropriate warm ups, the rest of the field immediately worked harder than normal due to ground conditions. Borel, however unwittingly, took MTB back and just floated along slowly for 4f allowing Mine That Bird to actually warm up for his run.
By the time Borel took off at the 5.5 pole on the backstretch lead change, exactly as he'd done with Street Sense as taught to him by Carl Nafzger, the horse was physiologically ready, and the rest of the field well on their way to being spent due to lack of appropriate warm up. MTB at this point in the race is already working with a big advantage from the skillful ride.
The Borel type run (and, forget for a moment the rail hugging aspect of it) is going to be looked at more and more. It's actually a Nafzger run--I feel sure it emanates from him--I've long wondered why conditioned horses declined to start a long steady run at the 6f pole from the rear using the initial stages of the race as a further warm up. A trained horse can make a long steady, faster than the field, run. BUT there's a big big additional advantage to this--the concept of "passing horses". Horses love to pass other horses. They get a charge out of it. Passing horses on the back stretch--instead of running with the field--makes the horse competitive. In this type of run the horse has the dual advantage of proper warm up and being very "into the race".
This all still provides incomplete explanation as MTB also showed extreme speed vis a vis the rest of the field. Borel said there was a rail bias on Derby day, which, if true, would be huge. The remaining factor is that we know that big horses struggle in mud. Their hoofs pick up more of the wet heavy surface with every single stride than a smaller hoofed horse. The smaller hoofed horse has the additional advantage that its lesser weight causes it to sink less deeply into the heavy surface. This was a field of big (and several heavy) horses, many of whom slogged bravely through this surface. Where decently trained, superbly ridden MTB carrying Bill Pressy's heart rate monitor my guess--it would show MTB had a 25% "work" advantage on every horse trained by other than Zito and Breen strictly due to hoof size, horse size, and horse weight. The horse has a little talent too. He's a Birdstone. Everybody keeps missing that. Be interesting also to know the style of shoe that allowed that performance.
Can any sense be made out of this performance? Those of us who believe horses run for a reason will be looking for "causes" missed by even the true experts. For myself it all started with that April 25 video at KY Derby.com, the only 4 minute galloping clip of any of the horses, showing some horrible exercise riding (in initial part of gallop), so bad that I just flipped to the next video. I declined to watch what I considered as, understandably for MTB and his New Mexico trainer, the worst exercise rider on the grounds butchering a ride on a horse with no chance.
But, oh my! Now that I look at the whole 4 minutes, horse and rider recovered to show Mine That Bird both with "some stuff", and that MTB, unlike most of the rest of the field, was getting something out of his slow day galloping. This was other than a horse that was being trained out of his stall (check out 4/29 post!).
The second (rather huge) hint comes on 4/27 with the Calvin Borel breeze. Very decent coming down the stretch showing a strong, coordinated smaller horse who distracts with a surprise lead change before the wire, causing thought process: typically badly trained. What happens thereafter probably is crucial. As I continued to watch I had at the time the (fleeting) thought: Shades of Street Sense. After the horse crossed the wire Borel maintained speed clear into the back stretch were the video ends, but obviously was still going fast by the 4.5f pole. Same exact thing Nafzger instructed Borel to do with Street Sense in the pre-derby breezes. Clocked at 5f the breezes were in fact mile breezes. Borel had retained this and was still doing Nafzger training with Rachel Alexandra (who's last breeze shows the same), and his Derby mount. Essentially it was at this point that Borel had taken over the training. We may imagine the probable intellectual quality of Borel's pre-breeze instructions, undoubtedly instantly forgotten by Borel.
The Derby ride then proved to "out Street Sense" Street Sense. And again, analysis shows, this is other than an accident. MTB was tremendously aided by Borel's unwitting taking back of the horse in the initial stages. Out of the gate, just subsequent to their inappropriate warm ups, the rest of the field immediately worked harder than normal due to ground conditions. Borel, however unwittingly, took MTB back and just floated along slowly for 4f allowing Mine That Bird to actually warm up for his run.
By the time Borel took off at the 5.5 pole on the backstretch lead change, exactly as he'd done with Street Sense as taught to him by Carl Nafzger, the horse was physiologically ready, and the rest of the field well on their way to being spent due to lack of appropriate warm up. MTB at this point in the race is already working with a big advantage from the skillful ride.
The Borel type run (and, forget for a moment the rail hugging aspect of it) is going to be looked at more and more. It's actually a Nafzger run--I feel sure it emanates from him--I've long wondered why conditioned horses declined to start a long steady run at the 6f pole from the rear using the initial stages of the race as a further warm up. A trained horse can make a long steady, faster than the field, run. BUT there's a big big additional advantage to this--the concept of "passing horses". Horses love to pass other horses. They get a charge out of it. Passing horses on the back stretch--instead of running with the field--makes the horse competitive. In this type of run the horse has the dual advantage of proper warm up and being very "into the race".
This all still provides incomplete explanation as MTB also showed extreme speed vis a vis the rest of the field. Borel said there was a rail bias on Derby day, which, if true, would be huge. The remaining factor is that we know that big horses struggle in mud. Their hoofs pick up more of the wet heavy surface with every single stride than a smaller hoofed horse. The smaller hoofed horse has the additional advantage that its lesser weight causes it to sink less deeply into the heavy surface. This was a field of big (and several heavy) horses, many of whom slogged bravely through this surface. Where decently trained, superbly ridden MTB carrying Bill Pressy's heart rate monitor my guess--it would show MTB had a 25% "work" advantage on every horse trained by other than Zito and Breen strictly due to hoof size, horse size, and horse weight. The horse has a little talent too. He's a Birdstone. Everybody keeps missing that. Be interesting also to know the style of shoe that allowed that performance.
posted by rather rapid at
11:47 AM
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