Second Tier Trainees

Last Post, Tier #1:
Mr. Hot Stuff
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private

the very best training, each show exceptionally planned and executed speed events in their PPs. Their trainers produced, maintained, and in case of the first three improved them. Each probably coming on at the 8th pole.

Second Tier are a group of decently instead of exceptionally trained horses that show deficiencies:

Papa Clem
I Want Revenge
Friesan fire
Advice

1. Papa Clem is tied for 1st in number of works for the year, a slight second to Chocolate Candy in total speed furlongs and #1 recent speed work. He has a trainer you gotta love! Yet, there are red flags. PC is one you can watch slow day galloping 3/4 a mile on the wrong lead. Never changed nor did the jock make any attempt. That's nit picky though injury threatening, but indicative of deeper problems of planning, training and care. 6 days before the Arkansas Derby PC did a :58.4. You'd think they'd repeat this sort of thing. Instead, we get two very slow works to the Derby with a slow footed animal (relatively), and a 35 and change 2 days before the Derby. Marking this horse down as I'm other than a fan of these close event speed works. Some horses recover, some specifically fail to recover. Question whether what was done was optimal planning. The horse may be awake mentally which was their goal, but physically he'll run his race trying to bounce back from today's work.

2. I Want Revenge: I'd opined maybe Mullins has done a superior job. Close exam reveals the training good instead of great. This is the only horse that did his last work the ideal 4 days out. Good. Otherwise since the Wood on 5/4 IWR primarily has been engaged in maintenance work that is a little too light for my taste. This has however been combined with some two mile work--the only one in this field to show that--and, some 2 minute galloping, again, only horse that shows that. We're ok here with 2 mile gallops and 2 min lick as being tougher training, but to be effective they need to be combined with targeted breezes seemingly lacking. Going 1.25 miles may be a lot to ask of one breeze that went 5f in a month.Possibly a little short running against the best!

3. Friesan Fire: Decent recent breezing, but below mid pack in training volume for the year and recent training volume. Without the :57.4 on 4/27 I'd toss him, and, so happy L. Jones and me on the same wave length (regards this). The 4/27 breeze served as a necessary tightener. Yet, we've seen these fast works go both ways. Old Trieste and a few others come to mind as horses who went backwards off final fast works. Reason: the horse probably unprepared for the speed by its prior training. There's a good possibility of tha there. And, although L. Jones avoids the 8 Belles error (200 lbs, 3 days after the speed work, in :14s), I'm other than a fan of Jones clomping around the track with this horse the rest of the week. There is something to be said for Jone's strategy with this horse. (if we ignore the injury aspects.) It will take something very good to beat FF.

4. Advice: is talking based on the video gallops. Advice shows in the upper 1/3 of speed event volume both for the year and recently. Decent although short of great training job. And, the recent win. Advice probably the more dangerous Plecher horse.

Well, that settles that. Closer looks necessary!