French philosopher Renee' Descartes, whose years were 1596 to 1650, coined the phrase "cogito ergo sum" (I think, therefore I am), and spent half of his life in bed.

Housekeeper: "Renee' what are you doing in bed until noon again?"

Descartes: "Thinking".

You see the relevance to this year's Derby. It would take almost a Cartesian thought process to sort out this field. Being somewhat short myself of that standard, nevertheless, a final stab to separate the nine left standing on this blog due to superior training.

9. Papa Clem: The stoutest trained horse in the field, and would have loved to see him run with the Thurs. breeze a day earlier. Believe they miscalculated and failed with rider control on the final breeze. As it is they're over the top both both for performance and injury. RR sentimental favorite

8. Flying Private--will pay the price for Lukas powder puff training.

7. Musket Man--a better horse than those behind him. The mud and the last work too far out will do him in.

6. Advice: (Big) Dark horse. I think he'll outrun Dunkirk.

5. Friesan Fire: fast turnover, ground flicking stride provides huge advantage in the ground conditions. Yet, unable to ignore the FF training substantially less deep for the year and recently than the competitive horses here. Other than a fan of 2 miles of Larry Jones clomp gallop since Monday. Horse unprepared for fast final breeze. Good run falls short.

4. Mr. Hot Stuff: You can tell by the handling that they're preparing for the Belmont. Had this monster been set out to win, he'd have arrived in Churchill sooner and we'd notice a more chilly Eion Harty demeanor. The one most likely to be compromised by the ground conditions and his trainer's self admitted lack of focus. Could also run away with the race, but avoiding this pick here.

3. I Want Revenge: Will in the final analysis pay for his trainer's late let up in speed training. (Edit after the scratch: and, apparently, two miles of work pre derby on a heavy track.)

1. Chocolate Candy: dead heat.

1. Pioneer Of The Nile: dead heat.

Pioneer gets the nod. Sophisticated, knowledgeable trainer with the mojo wins by photo. This should be a rider's race, and a "winner's race". The multiple winners will compete with very similar experiences. The money, in the end, should be on the two best conditioned horses with a healthy dose of respect for Mr. Hot Stuff.