Correlations Between Training/Injury/Results

The 2008 Derby results showed little correlation with pre Derby training in terms of training volume(breeze/races) for the year or recent speed work. Distracted by 8 Belles I never returned to look at possible reasons for lack of correlation between training and results in last year's Derby.

There was in 2008 high correlation between inadequate training and injury. Several of the 2008 Derby horses perceived inadequately trained exited the Derby with injuries, and all of the adequately trained horses came out healthy. In 2009, thankfully, fewer horses have inadequate training, though we have some of the usual subjects. The same outfit that gave us Momba's slab fracture and the George Washington tragedy now pushes late developing and very vulnerable Dunkirk into a race for which he both has inadequate racing prep, but also shallow training. Add Zito, as always, and General Quarters. Add to these concerns over change of surface from polytrack to muddy dirt for several. I have other injury concerns. My policy is to avoid alarums except in cases of gross negligence by my own perceptions(see 8 Belles).

But, on to performance. This post completes the analysis of the "training variable", and with hope of fine tuning in the other performance variables Saturday morning.

Group them in five tiers them based on PPs, and video observations:

Tier #5 (inadequate training)

West Side Bernie
Atomic Rain
No Where To Hide
Hold Me Back
Summer Bird
General Quarters

Tier #4 (adequate, average training with last breeze 4/25 (perceived as) too far out to make the horse competitive--talent could/might/probably will fail to overcome)

Musket Man
Regal Ransom
Desert Party
Dunkirk

Tier #3(Average training, could run, but other deficiencies, talent e.g.)
Mine That Bird
Join In The Dance

Tier #2 (Well trained or average trained with last work tab after 4/25, but without the particularly well conceived work tabs of Tier #1--i.e. "some" problems that might crop up to bite.)
Papa Clem
I Want Revenge
Friesan Fire
Advice

Tier #1 (logical, well conceived recent work tabs designed for performance on Derby Day)

Mr. Hot Stuff
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private

On a normal Churchill surface this Derby could set up to into an all time cavalry charge quarter pole to wire due to the number of similarly well trained colts. There's frankly very little difference between the Tier #1 and #2 horses except in the nuances, and to that we add Musket Man from Tier #4.

Separating these 9 colts on training is difficult due to similarities, but there's a high degree of comfort that the winner comes from these 9 related solely to their superior training. Other factors-variables that might influence, next post.