Derby Results And Recent Speed Events
Does speed work close to the event affect performance? It would seem so, but is there evidence?
This post contains the small sample of the last two Derbies. Unfortunately my charting was inconsistent year to year. For the 2008 Derby the only thing charted was "number" of speed events 45 days out. For the 2009 Derby I wanted to chart for the 30 days pre-derby (on the theory that the last 30 days training is crucial) but charted 35 days since much of the field breezed or raced on 3/28/09.
You will notice that the training for these time periods horse to horse is quite similar in terms of what these simple stats show. Yet, these charts, and also the year to date chart last post do show some general correlations:
1. Working your horse may or may not succeed, although the horses that worked the most were all competitive.
2. (The anomalies of Big Brown and Eight Belles aside) The horses that worked the least were guaranteed to finish up the track.
Both BB and 8 Belles' essentially made up what they missed earlier as their work was crammed primarily into the last 5 weeks pre derby as the charts below show.
Results ranked highest number of works to least:
C=Competitive in the race
NC=Non-competitive in the race.
2008 Derby
Number of speed events (breezes/races) in the 45 days pre-Derby:
C 8 Colonel John
C 7 Big Brown
C 7 Bob Black Jack
C 7 Pyro
C 6 Eight Belles
C 6 Dennis Of Cork
C 6 Tale of Ekati
C 6 Anak Nakal
C 6 Recapture The Glory
NC 6 Smooth Air
NC 6 Court Vision
NC 6 Cool Coal Man
NC 6 Adriano
NC 6 Momba
NC 6 Z Humor
NC 6 Z Fortune
C 5 Cowboy Cal
NC 5 Gayego
2009 Derby
Number--horse--furlongs
C 5 Papa Clem 33
C 5 Chocolate Candy 31
C 5 Pioneer Of The Nile 27
NC5Flying Private 27
NC 5 Mr. Hot Stuff 25
NC 4 Mr. Advice 26
C 4 Musket Man 25
NC 4 Desert Party 23
C 4 Regal Ransom 23
NC 4 Friesan Fire 23
NC 4 Dunkirk 23
NC 4 General Quarters
C 4 Join In The Dance 23
C 3 Mine That Bird 22 (counts 3f of gallop out with last Borel work.)
C 3 Summer Bird 20
NC 3 Hold Me Back 19
NC 3 Atomic Rain 17
NC 2 Nowhere To Hide
NC 2 West Side Bernie
This post contains the small sample of the last two Derbies. Unfortunately my charting was inconsistent year to year. For the 2008 Derby the only thing charted was "number" of speed events 45 days out. For the 2009 Derby I wanted to chart for the 30 days pre-derby (on the theory that the last 30 days training is crucial) but charted 35 days since much of the field breezed or raced on 3/28/09.
You will notice that the training for these time periods horse to horse is quite similar in terms of what these simple stats show. Yet, these charts, and also the year to date chart last post do show some general correlations:
1. Working your horse may or may not succeed, although the horses that worked the most were all competitive.
2. (The anomalies of Big Brown and Eight Belles aside) The horses that worked the least were guaranteed to finish up the track.
Both BB and 8 Belles' essentially made up what they missed earlier as their work was crammed primarily into the last 5 weeks pre derby as the charts below show.
Results ranked highest number of works to least:
C=Competitive in the race
NC=Non-competitive in the race.
2008 Derby
Number of speed events (breezes/races) in the 45 days pre-Derby:
C 8 Colonel John
C 7 Big Brown
C 7 Bob Black Jack
C 7 Pyro
C 6 Eight Belles
C 6 Dennis Of Cork
C 6 Tale of Ekati
C 6 Anak Nakal
C 6 Recapture The Glory
NC 6 Smooth Air
NC 6 Court Vision
NC 6 Cool Coal Man
NC 6 Adriano
NC 6 Momba
NC 6 Z Humor
NC 6 Z Fortune
C 5 Cowboy Cal
NC 5 Gayego
2009 Derby
Number--horse--furlongs
C 5 Papa Clem 33
C 5 Chocolate Candy 31
C 5 Pioneer Of The Nile 27
NC5Flying Private 27
NC 5 Mr. Hot Stuff 25
NC 4 Mr. Advice 26
C 4 Musket Man 25
NC 4 Desert Party 23
C 4 Regal Ransom 23
NC 4 Friesan Fire 23
NC 4 Dunkirk 23
NC 4 General Quarters
C 4 Join In The Dance 23
C 3 Mine That Bird 22 (counts 3f of gallop out with last Borel work.)
C 3 Summer Bird 20
NC 3 Hold Me Back 19
NC 3 Atomic Rain 17
NC 2 Nowhere To Hide
NC 2 West Side Bernie
posted by rather rapid at
7:12 PM
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2 Comments:
Hi RR! Hope you had a great weekend and your horses are happy and training well. Looking forward to your next blog and your thoughts on the Preakness. I was wanting your insight on MTB and his breeze today with Borel riding. Mainly, why wasn't Figueroa breezing him, if RA is in and Borel isn't MTB's jockey for the Preakness? I need my RR fix for the evening to calm my thoughts and know that one of these trainers know what they are doing. I don't like that RA could run...is she ready?? Please email me if the blog is not appropriate.
Sorry, email: lbarge@everestkc.net
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