The No Brainer Derby Pick?

Well, seems close to no brainer.

Eliminate some more:

Stately Victor: man among boys/and girls. who might be logical choice on a fast track. Michael Maker has come to the fore of late with decent training compared to these plus some big red flags also. Due regard to Haskin and his mudder theory based on pedigree, can we predict this late closer will hit the quarter pole with 30 lbs. of water and mud wrapped to him. And, big hoofs navigate poorly due to greater heaviness in mud. Love the horse but strictly other than a mudder to me..

Devil May Care: Plecher sans steroids. Nice build for off track. possibly sentimental owner type entry.

Dean's Kitten: I avoid in general being influenced much by pedigree, although it is sometimes a factor, but, Ide-El Prado for the
Derby seems stretching it to me. Beat horribly trained field inj Lane's End. Record fails to inspire.

Awesome Act: I am underwhelmed.

5 to go

Threats:

Looking at Lucky

Conveyance

Line of David

Sidney's Candy

Mission Impazible

Each should be tough,although Lookin at Lucky and Mission Impazible are near the middle (instead of at the top) of the speed work furlongs and numbers for the year. I'll decline to let Mission past this hurdle since it's Plecher. Lucky has Baffert and we know Baffert ratchet's up for the Derby. Lucky also is likely due to body build to be a very decent mudder. Throw out Mission due to insufficient work.

Line of David I really like despite what some others thought of that last breeze. He looked pretty good to me in a brief glimpse on Paulick. And he's near the top on works. Sydney's Candy has a heavier build that I fear will compromise on heavy going. I'd have expected a bit more energy from this horse in, again, a brief glimpse of vid. Thinking Lucky will pass these two somewhere if only on sheer class and experience.

BUT, it hardly matters because all of these are likely to be looking at the rear end of the no brainer pick. Whatever your own choice, consider. This horse is going to exceptionally tough to beat:

CONVEYANCE

1. he'll travel easily through the mud. 2. Best trainer. 3. Look at the record, good grief. 4. Near the top by margins in numbers of speed works and furlongs for the year. 5. Was it Holy Bull, the brood mare sire, that could run all day? 6. Look at those pre-derby breezes. This horse might win by daylight.

Final thought that I am always worried about synthetic track horses switching to dirt, but especially on the off track. We recall Pioneer of the Nile and thinking Sydney's Candy has had the least experience on dirt and is also a heavier bodied horse that will create more concussion.