Final Final Derby Thoughts

Lookin At Lucky: can you win from the #1 spot in the slop. Odds against Lucky seem insurmountable. He'll either be covered in mud from the get go or have to fight through deep slop along the rail to get into better position. Lucky is unlucky today and must throw him out.

Conveyance has the best workouts for the year and also recent pre-derby workouts. He's the only horse that breezed every 6 days (instead of 7) recently, and only that shows appropriate Derby type speed in his breezing. I see only 3 points of call where this horse has ever been headed. Is that impressive?

Horses with more than 7 days last breeze tend to finish up the track: Dean's Kitten, Paddy O Prado, Stately Victor

Homeboy Kris: Dutrow is at it again with a breeze on 4/28. Did he breeze the horse this morning (idiot). Take note. But, no racing since Feb, and looks a lesser talent.

Awesome Act breezed 4/27. Will amke him tougher. He's also a lighter horse that should get through the slip. There's little about this training that makes me think "truly European" in e.g. the Gosden style. I'd avoid.

Devil May Care: what a great story for John Greathouse and Glencrest Farm if she wins. Unlike 8Belles, she seems to have enough training to make it around there. And, she is perfectly built for slop!

Dublin will be compromised. Too heavy for slop. Even his blinkers will be wet in the stretch.

Ice Box is another with a nice build for conditions. He's a throw out. Zito. I'd truly despise this trainer being rewarded with any kind of good finish.

Line of David: superior race tab, nice work tab, look at the record. if he's healthy how can you keep him out of exotics?

Mission Impazible is a slightly hardened Plecher powderpuff.

Paddy O'Prado is trained by Dale Romans. Enough said. Throw out.

Super Saver: When your last two breezes before the Derby are powderpuff workouts, if you win Preston Burch would be rolling in his grave.

Good luck to all!