Derby Choice
(Edit--Bill Pressey's comment. Ya--never figure it. Because a horse is quarantined why is he unable to go to a track. Seems they need to provide a track somewhere where the quarantined horse can run. they're catching up with Baffert training possibly?? )
Crossed off 7 yesterday. Though this blog by memory has questionable success picking the actual winner, unable to recall a horse ever winning a race that I have eliminated. Elimination is the easy part and picking the winner out of those left standing the hard. Am have a bit of second thoughts about Liason who seems just the type of light long strider built for this sort of race.
They're raving about this field compared to past. I fail to see it. This actually looks to me a less than average field. The fact that they race so seldom contributes to the difficulty in sorting them out and seeing whether anybody has unusual talent. Steve Haskin is perplexed, and that's a new one on the eve of the Derby.
Some thoughts last 24 hrs.
Creative Cause (eliminated)--I think his trainer is a vet and so would be amazed if they're sending him out there injured, except do you have to wonder about a horse that's moving stiffly from the get go. Lost to the inexperienced--of course u're unable to see the mild lameness when they're galloping. You trot them to view lameness. Otherwise the horse jogged a mile and galloped I believe a mile and 3/8 after walking the shedrow two straight days taking what was accomplished in the breeze right out of him. Too much volume of slow work.
Dulahan--fairly intelligent training it seems.
I'll Have Another--can u get away with 2 min licking and faster every day--unable, definitely. I worry about soundness. The horse likely is the best conditioned in the field. Interesting interview with O'Neill yesterday. Mentioned old time training and Assault and how they've switched up their training. Maybe trainers can change their stripes. O'Neill is inexperienced in this sort of training. Can u get away with 2 min lick and faster every day. Take my word: u can't. Maybe he lasts for a race and he's got those nice legs from his grandpa. But this is dangerous training.
Hansen--quite a spit fire. Will he maintain that on race day. I've seen them this way all week and on race morning they're wet rags. He looks tighter than in his sand roll. I fail to see it. More talented horses with similar training.
Bodemeister--looks completely unimpressive in gallops and relative appearance. I think he'll get run down.
Union Rags--obviously the talent in the field. Watched a vid that he was lazy as a youngster, and he still looks lazy to me like my Rodney before I started sharpening him with daily competition. I think UR will fail to try hard enough to win.
Let's see--who does that leave?
Asmussen's horses--have'nt seen them. know nothing about them. The trainer is always a threat.
Barry Irwin's horse trained by Graham Motion. Reader here know what I think of this training and trainer. Unlikely.
I've paid attention only this week, and so this is highly unscientific:
The training is similar except for one and so talent should out. That means Gemoligist and Untion Rags down the stretch and figure Hansen and a surprise horse will be right in there with them. If training outs, I'll Have Another in a walk away if he holds together. I always go with the training if it's superior, and here we have both a talented horse and the hardest trained horse.
Crossed off 7 yesterday. Though this blog by memory has questionable success picking the actual winner, unable to recall a horse ever winning a race that I have eliminated. Elimination is the easy part and picking the winner out of those left standing the hard. Am have a bit of second thoughts about Liason who seems just the type of light long strider built for this sort of race.
They're raving about this field compared to past. I fail to see it. This actually looks to me a less than average field. The fact that they race so seldom contributes to the difficulty in sorting them out and seeing whether anybody has unusual talent. Steve Haskin is perplexed, and that's a new one on the eve of the Derby.
Some thoughts last 24 hrs.
Creative Cause (eliminated)--I think his trainer is a vet and so would be amazed if they're sending him out there injured, except do you have to wonder about a horse that's moving stiffly from the get go. Lost to the inexperienced--of course u're unable to see the mild lameness when they're galloping. You trot them to view lameness. Otherwise the horse jogged a mile and galloped I believe a mile and 3/8 after walking the shedrow two straight days taking what was accomplished in the breeze right out of him. Too much volume of slow work.
Dulahan--fairly intelligent training it seems.
I'll Have Another--can u get away with 2 min licking and faster every day--unable, definitely. I worry about soundness. The horse likely is the best conditioned in the field. Interesting interview with O'Neill yesterday. Mentioned old time training and Assault and how they've switched up their training. Maybe trainers can change their stripes. O'Neill is inexperienced in this sort of training. Can u get away with 2 min lick and faster every day. Take my word: u can't. Maybe he lasts for a race and he's got those nice legs from his grandpa. But this is dangerous training.
Hansen--quite a spit fire. Will he maintain that on race day. I've seen them this way all week and on race morning they're wet rags. He looks tighter than in his sand roll. I fail to see it. More talented horses with similar training.
Bodemeister--looks completely unimpressive in gallops and relative appearance. I think he'll get run down.
Union Rags--obviously the talent in the field. Watched a vid that he was lazy as a youngster, and he still looks lazy to me like my Rodney before I started sharpening him with daily competition. I think UR will fail to try hard enough to win.
Let's see--who does that leave?
Asmussen's horses--have'nt seen them. know nothing about them. The trainer is always a threat.
Barry Irwin's horse trained by Graham Motion. Reader here know what I think of this training and trainer. Unlikely.
I've paid attention only this week, and so this is highly unscientific:
The training is similar except for one and so talent should out. That means Gemoligist and Untion Rags down the stretch and figure Hansen and a surprise horse will be right in there with them. If training outs, I'll Have Another in a walk away if he holds together. I always go with the training if it's superior, and here we have both a talented horse and the hardest trained horse.
posted by rather rapid at
1:17 PM
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1 Comments:
Interesting about O'Neill and his reference to the conditioning of Assault, perhaps he has read our blogs?
Where did you read/hear this interview RR?
Talk about a showdown of west coast vs east coast conditioning!
I live here about 10min from CD and yesterday the track was SA-like and a few records were set, one by Baffert, which would have been ideal for O'Neill and the rest come Derby Day....then of course it rains 2in overnight!
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