KY Derby Handicapping

With sterling record of handicapping KY Derby (see blog)(see sarcasm font)--let's try it one more time with caveat that spending one hour on a 20 horse field leaves a little to be desired, and that's assuming this field can even be handicapped.  And, away we go:

1.  Up the track:

Kelly Breen--Black Onyx
Dallas Stewart--Golden Soul
Tom Amos--My Lute--of horses watched this is the one I might like to train.

Some trainers, like bad football coaches, never figure it out.
Query why K. McPeek is omitted from this group, see below.

2.  Will Take Charge--my perception--he's got an injury problem of some sort.  Body language to me indicating WTC wants to be anywhere except a racetrack.  Additionally, I'd doubt a horse can be competitive at this level off :13s works for a 1.5 months. Let's do observe WTC has had a nice set of works.
Finish:  Up the track.

3.  Horses obviously without a chance:

Giant Finish-three 4f works since 3/23. Nope.

4.  Horses probably without a chance:

Palace Malice--had 2 races and one 4f work 7 days out.  Or, one 4f work in 21 days pre-race + Plecher's moderate gallops.  I'd avoid putting a lot of change on PM, who, although this schedule sometimes works--against the more rigorously trained here, doubtful.

Charming Kitten--same deal. Insufficient work.

Lines of Battle--how smart (dumb) is it to have ur horse quarantined or traveling on Tues.,Wed,Thurs before the race?  + the killers of George Washington have race this horse one time since first of Nov.

8 gone/13 to go.

5.  Improbables (though, be wary):

Overanalyze--really like this horse and his sire Dixie Union--the good one's eventually if often belatedly show (others in this race--Boston Harbor, Cape Town, War Pass, Rainbow Quest.).  Unfortunately has same work tab as Palace Malice.  Insufficient to be competitive in this race off one 4f in 21 days pre-race unless racing against similar?

Falling Sky:  other than a pig and much better work though again one in 21 days.

6.  Contenders--eliminated only 10 horses.  Eleven contenders, good grief. Unable to separate these by the PPs. Training is primarily the same except Golden Cents.  I will look again at the vids and hopefully report Sat. Morning.

Training:  32 degrees and snow in KC this morning. Blowing Louisville way am fearing. WEATHER.  Thurs. Off.