Derby Pick

Vids give one thing, handicapping/ PPs often something else.   I tend to look for ability, attitude, appropriate strength and conformation, and also, handling in the vids.  E.g. Wicked Strong seems an unhappy camper to me, possibly due to lack of proper rest since he's right next to the track and listening to tractors working the track all night.  Wild speculation.  Who knows?

And from the PPs:   Danza and CA Chrome side by side with Samaraat in the #6 post position. The three legit contenders by their race records, then, come out of the gate side by side giving their jocks early opportunity for significant advantage.  Picture this going into first turn.  Surely Plecher and Violette horses will take back and let Chrome go, which we'd think he would do happily. 

The second handicapping angle is the speed in this race.  And also parts of PPs that may be being overlooked.  They go hand in hand here.  Who's the best current trainer?  Probably tie between Baffert and Plecher.  Who has the best PPs besides Chrome?  Take a look at Chitu!  4 races.  3 firsts and one second by 1/2 length all from the front.

Am unable to imagine Baffert doing anything with Chitu except going right to the front.  Baffert has been known for this in the Derby.  And, Chitu has that big body to intimidate those immediately behind.

Also out there should be Wild Cat Red.  Fairly obviously Chrome is going to behind those two and maintain a rational pace with Danza and Samaraat dogging his every stride.  Then there should be the rest of the pack each and everyone will be trying to close in the stretch.

Q in this Derby--will an "Orb" emerge out of the closer section to catch Chrome and Danza?  I'm thinking, no.  The three best horses, Samaraat, Danza and Chrome should be right there.  Danger to Chrome of course is that he's going to get tag teamed and wear himself out.  Surely the trainer and jock have figured how to handle.

Chitu fades late.  Samaraat and Danza right there, One of the other Plecher horses coming on.

Choice:  CA Chrome.