Appropriate Response
"The native hue of resolution is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
and enterprises of great pith and moment, in this regard, their currents gone awry,
do lose the name of action."
from Mr. S came to mind as I was sitting in traffic this morning providing me ample time to consider the implication of Eight Belles, the response, and what I have personally invested in the sport. With a lot on the line for us in racing, anger has commenced to be my emotion of the moment.
Great horses lately dropping like flies, it all began with Charismatic in 1999, to two on consecutive days over the weekend, is it time to call a halt? Fair warning that this post becomes rather opinionated about Eight Belles.
For those convinced this was a freak accident of the sort that "just happens" in horse racing, see if you've the same conclusion after putting this to the microscope.
I've already posted 4/26 that EB had 9 works/races for the year in 18 weeks, and traveled about 56 furlongs at speed. Yet, this inadequate workload, less than every other horse in the field and half as many as a lot of them, only scratches the surface of the problem. (and thanks to Bill documenting this in the comments to my last post as I type).
Consider that EB worked/raced only one time each in December and January and twice February, four times in 12 weeks or once every three weeks. This light a workload is dangerous for any horse much less one pointed to the Derby. EB's pre-March schedule was insufficient for bone development and actually would cause resorption of speed specific bone. Every trainer knows, or ought to know that.
Every trainer additionally ought to know that you always (100% of the time) avoid surprising a horse with a sudden increase in workload--Mandella e.g. in On The Muscle, "the works are progressive" Yet, EB commencing 3/10 suddenly increases her work/race workload from once every three weeks to almost once a week. At this point Jones is just begging for trouble. He knows it, I know it, and everybody that trains horses knows it.
EB's works were other than progressive, the total work load was also insufficient to prevent a fracture. For further clarification please note-- Readers of the blog will understand that race specific "fracture resistance" requires the horse to travel at least :12.5/f in their works. Slower even carrying 215 lbs will fail to get the job done. The blog is just now on"frequency" and how often we must do this for fracture resistance, but confide that it's way more frequently than once every two or three weeks.
The above means that the race ready appearance and strength of the filly, due in all likelihood to what Jones was doing with her under 215 lbs. on off days, is irrelevant to EB's bone development. Regardless of how fit, cardiovascularly, anaerobically, aerobically, EB had gotten from Jones slow day galloping schedule, the schedule for Derby horse bone development was grossly negligent. And, again, to clarify, you are unable to get this bone development by suddenly increasing the schedule 7 weeks out.
Now, Jones claims his filly was in perfect health going into the Derby. Unlikely. I will guarantee with my last breath that after that :58 work on 4/27 followed by the 2 minute lick under 215 lbs 3 days later that this filly showed significant heat in exactly the area where she fractured. How do I know this. Again most trainers will understand you're unable to get away with this sort of back to back work unscathed. Never happens, and in particular would never happen with a filly this young, this tall, and this lightly trained. The probability: Pre-Derby this horse was showing heat in her lower cannons, which will explain why Jones went very easy from 4/30 to the Derby.
By Derby day with the light work the heat would have disappeared and EB's legs somehow passed State Vet inspection. Too bad they never put infrared thermography on her. I feel sure that those fetlocks and lower cannons would have lit up that machine like a Christmas Tree.
How we ougtht respond in my world, tomorrow.
Training: Art off. Light riderless work with Rod.
and enterprises of great pith and moment, in this regard, their currents gone awry,
do lose the name of action."
from Mr. S came to mind as I was sitting in traffic this morning providing me ample time to consider the implication of Eight Belles, the response, and what I have personally invested in the sport. With a lot on the line for us in racing, anger has commenced to be my emotion of the moment.
Great horses lately dropping like flies, it all began with Charismatic in 1999, to two on consecutive days over the weekend, is it time to call a halt? Fair warning that this post becomes rather opinionated about Eight Belles.
For those convinced this was a freak accident of the sort that "just happens" in horse racing, see if you've the same conclusion after putting this to the microscope.
I've already posted 4/26 that EB had 9 works/races for the year in 18 weeks, and traveled about 56 furlongs at speed. Yet, this inadequate workload, less than every other horse in the field and half as many as a lot of them, only scratches the surface of the problem. (and thanks to Bill documenting this in the comments to my last post as I type).
Consider that EB worked/raced only one time each in December and January and twice February, four times in 12 weeks or once every three weeks. This light a workload is dangerous for any horse much less one pointed to the Derby. EB's pre-March schedule was insufficient for bone development and actually would cause resorption of speed specific bone. Every trainer knows, or ought to know that.
Every trainer additionally ought to know that you always (100% of the time) avoid surprising a horse with a sudden increase in workload--Mandella e.g. in On The Muscle, "the works are progressive" Yet, EB commencing 3/10 suddenly increases her work/race workload from once every three weeks to almost once a week. At this point Jones is just begging for trouble. He knows it, I know it, and everybody that trains horses knows it.
EB's works were other than progressive, the total work load was also insufficient to prevent a fracture. For further clarification please note-- Readers of the blog will understand that race specific "fracture resistance" requires the horse to travel at least :12.5/f in their works. Slower even carrying 215 lbs will fail to get the job done. The blog is just now on"frequency" and how often we must do this for fracture resistance, but confide that it's way more frequently than once every two or three weeks.
The above means that the race ready appearance and strength of the filly, due in all likelihood to what Jones was doing with her under 215 lbs. on off days, is irrelevant to EB's bone development. Regardless of how fit, cardiovascularly, anaerobically, aerobically, EB had gotten from Jones slow day galloping schedule, the schedule for Derby horse bone development was grossly negligent. And, again, to clarify, you are unable to get this bone development by suddenly increasing the schedule 7 weeks out.
Now, Jones claims his filly was in perfect health going into the Derby. Unlikely. I will guarantee with my last breath that after that :58 work on 4/27 followed by the 2 minute lick under 215 lbs 3 days later that this filly showed significant heat in exactly the area where she fractured. How do I know this. Again most trainers will understand you're unable to get away with this sort of back to back work unscathed. Never happens, and in particular would never happen with a filly this young, this tall, and this lightly trained. The probability: Pre-Derby this horse was showing heat in her lower cannons, which will explain why Jones went very easy from 4/30 to the Derby.
By Derby day with the light work the heat would have disappeared and EB's legs somehow passed State Vet inspection. Too bad they never put infrared thermography on her. I feel sure that those fetlocks and lower cannons would have lit up that machine like a Christmas Tree.
How we ougtht respond in my world, tomorrow.
Training: Art off. Light riderless work with Rod.
posted by rather rapid at
7:49 AM
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2 Comments:
This is one of my first stops every morning. This insight (and nice writing) is the reason why. Thank you.
Same here. Love this blog and always look forward to what you have to say RR. Keep up the good work.
kaunard
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