How'd They Do II?

Here they are again:

Big Brown B+
Eight Belles B
Dennis of Cork B+
Tale of Ekati B-
Recapturetheglory C
Colonel John A
Anak Nakal D
Pyro A-
Cowboy Cal C
Z Fortune C+
Smooth Air no grade given
Visionaire C
Court Vision C+
Z Humor C+
Cool Coal Man D
Bob Black Jack A-
Gayego C-
Big Truck B-
Adriano B-
Monba C

The aim in the training grades (based strictly on appropriate training for performance instead of injury prevention) was to correlate performance with the training. Was there any such correlation? It seems so!

First, we throw out the last six horses from this analysis. We're unable to judge training effect unless the horse runs all the way around. These last six for whatever reason were not persevered with, and so we're unable to make any analysis. Probably the usual reasons, injury, breathing or lactic acid lock up, or merely the jock trying to protect the horse after a game effort as with Bob Black Jack.

But, for those finishing ahead of Cool Coal man, we see fairly consistent results with a couple of exceptions. The middle group from Cowboy Cal down all received grades of C+ or lower. And from Cowboy Cal up, all Bs or As except Recapturetheglory and Anak Nakal.

On these latter two, note:

RECAPTURETHEGLORY: On 5/2 I wrote that he "could be right there or he could fade out of sight". On 5/3 I wrote "I doubt the 2 mile work will rescue him". This proved incorrect. On 5/2 I'd written that Recapture is a fit horse, and probably had done more volume galloping wise than most of the field. Should have stuck to my guns and expected a big performance. But, do you wonder what Recapture might have done had Roussell thrown in a few more breezes and conducted that last one 4 days instead of 8 days out? The mind of the trainer perplex's a bit, and now, too bad for everybody, he's out of the Preakness. Given what Big Brown is up to these days, Recapture might have made that race very interesting.

ANAK NAKAL: I was wrong on this one. Should have believed my eyes. I was so down on Zito after War Pass that I might have ignored that Zito did a fairly solid job with this horse. When I did the final training grade for Anak and Cool Coal Man I lumped the two together in my mind. My Pavlov reaction to grading Zito would be an automatic "D" at this point. But, had I heeded my own notes of 4/26 and 27 I'd have recalled that in works/races for the year Anak Nakal ranked an impressive 6th, and in furlongs traveled 9th still solid. Most importantly in my final grade here I ignored the pre-derby video of Anak which shows a really nice horse reasonably fit and galloping well. Again, query, had Zito breezed this horse 5 days before the Derby instead of 9 days out...?

The mystery of Colonel John's performance, next post.

Training:
Monday 5/12: time's flying, but we're back in mode. They've worked 4 days now out of the last 6. Riderless with both colts for 10 minutes without stopping that went roughly 4f slow galloping without any urging, a little trot then back into the gallop. Tack work with both: Art walked 7 minutes for the first time into the pasture areas frequented by deer and other little wild interlopers and handled it well. Bellying work with Rod the two year old.