What Happened To Colonel John?

The RR Derby pick Colonel John tanked which requires explanation, at least to myself since I'd rated this the best Derby training job. With some talent and superior training generally we'll see a good performance, and thus, in this Derby the Casner horse appeared a bit of an obvious choice.(In the photo Susan Casner holds the bridle.) But, CJ finished up the track, and so I've reviewed my thoughts and comments and replayed the Santa Anita Derby and the Derby multiple times focusing on CJ. A few musings on these races vis a vis the training follows.

My 5/1 post evaluated training jobs. Eion Harty received an "A" but relative to the field. I was grading on the curve. I had some quibbles with Harty and posted a few of them. I was foremost concerned with possible lack of attention to detail by a trainer who races a horse with a flapping tongue. Sorry to make such a big point of this one small/big issue. What this indicates to me is a trainer/coach/manager who for all his IQ in this particular endeavor possibly fails to think things through.

We are just now coming to fully understand there's very little room in that equine mouth. With a view to this in the last few years we've seen coming on more humane bits with flat as opposed to bumpy joints between the snaffles. Anybody who puts on a bridle on a daily basis understands you're unable to put too much in there or you will get that tongue flapping.

The flapping tongue may also be something as simple as tying the tongue tie too tight or positioning it improperly. In any event it's a bit hard for me to fathom a major trainer sending his horse to the track day after day (see Pyro) with a flapping tongue that is such an easy thing to remedy with different equipment.

That's me of course. I'd like to hear Harty's take on it. But, regards Colonel John's performance it's a red flag. When I move from the Intermediate Chess room to the Advanced the ducks need to be aligned or my head winds up on the platter.

I do believe that we see lack of attention to detail in CJ's performance. It begins with a curious choice of post position for a horse that fails to break well. For what possible reason would they choose post 10 where the slow breaker IS going to get accordioned from both sides? If Eion Harty failed to watch the exact same thing happen to Kudos in the 2002 Santa Anita Derby in "On The Muscle" you'd think Susan Casner had watched that video a few times and figured with a slow breaking horse you pick anything but the middle.

Choice of post positions was exacerbated because they also had on board a jock who seems a bit shy in getting position at this stage of his career. You see the lack of "getting position" both in the Santa Anita Derby where Nakatani allows CJ to be shuffled back around the final turn, and in the Derby where he needs to come out hard but completely fails and gets shuffled back an insurmountable distance right off the bat.

After being left in the dust the first time down the straightaway there was little Nakatani could do except what subsequently happened. But, before taking you around the Derby track with the horse (which explains the result), another question. In planning strategy for this particular Derby, is there any way to beat Big Brown except to stay close from the get go? Seems obvious from the Florida Derby on, and that you thus train your horse in that direction. Never happened, nor did these folks (apparently) plan the race that way. We'll see why next post, and will query whether CJ might have run the best race in this Derby.

Training:
Tues: 5/13: Both colts did riderless short spurts, maybe 1/2 F with gallop outs. Did 6 or 7 of these. They are fliers and looked good. 10 min tack work with Art who for the first time started to trot the training course as step one to commencing to gallop. More bellying with Rod.