Handicapping The Preakness
PPs show strong potential Chrome/Bayern/RideOnCurlin Trifecta box with Q, which one will prevail. ROC insufficient as a horse imo and will have his tongue flapping all the way around.
Chrome has failed to breeze since the Derby although he's slow galloped two miles almost every day, and would suspect the exercise rider likely did a few zips here and there when the Shermans were looking elsewhere. The blog noted small read flags here and there with Chrome training and then a much bigger one yesterday when Chrome--one day before the race--is galloped two miles in the mud. Two training violations there--1. galloping any horse irregardless two miles on a heavy hard surface, and 2. galloping two miles day before a race particularly when one intends to take the horse to the track the morning of race day. Chances of Chrome completing this 2 mile mud gallop without straining or even pulling a check ligament? High!
(Edit: I see that Bayern galloped 1.5 miles in the rain Friday. I'd be doing that 1 mile max and likely would trot instead. As to mud caused injuries will just say--been there/done that. 1.5 miles would be the very edge of where I would dare to go on that type of surface.)
Pressey's blog raised the Q why the old time trainer fails to do old time training. The oldsters did a lot more breezing. The oldsters also never slow galloped their horses into the ground as has possibly been done with Chrome. Thus, as Doug O'neil did with I'll Have Another, the Q raises it's head whether they've traind Chrome appropriately and whether they've done too much, this time with the slow galloping both in the mud and too close to race day.
In contrast is the near perfect prep of Bayern, and we have a Baffert vs. Art Sherman matchup. Who wins that one? This is a tough tough call after Bayern's brave 1:36.1 mile in the Derby Trial stakes. The horse has got the stuff to press Chrome.
In the end, I'd think Chrome, despite lack of breeze work, with just two weeks between races and with an accumulating snow ball of success has enough bottom to prevail. We've seen this sort of conventional training succeed with other horses such as Wise Dan and Zenyatta. They get a certain momentum including the experience of winning and pressing themselves that Bayern, a weaker looking horse than Chrome, lacks.
My pick: CA Chrome, with some trepidation.
And, a strong strong Chrome/Bayern exacta. The other horses are without any chance imo.
Chrome has failed to breeze since the Derby although he's slow galloped two miles almost every day, and would suspect the exercise rider likely did a few zips here and there when the Shermans were looking elsewhere. The blog noted small read flags here and there with Chrome training and then a much bigger one yesterday when Chrome--one day before the race--is galloped two miles in the mud. Two training violations there--1. galloping any horse irregardless two miles on a heavy hard surface, and 2. galloping two miles day before a race particularly when one intends to take the horse to the track the morning of race day. Chances of Chrome completing this 2 mile mud gallop without straining or even pulling a check ligament? High!
(Edit: I see that Bayern galloped 1.5 miles in the rain Friday. I'd be doing that 1 mile max and likely would trot instead. As to mud caused injuries will just say--been there/done that. 1.5 miles would be the very edge of where I would dare to go on that type of surface.)
Pressey's blog raised the Q why the old time trainer fails to do old time training. The oldsters did a lot more breezing. The oldsters also never slow galloped their horses into the ground as has possibly been done with Chrome. Thus, as Doug O'neil did with I'll Have Another, the Q raises it's head whether they've traind Chrome appropriately and whether they've done too much, this time with the slow galloping both in the mud and too close to race day.
In contrast is the near perfect prep of Bayern, and we have a Baffert vs. Art Sherman matchup. Who wins that one? This is a tough tough call after Bayern's brave 1:36.1 mile in the Derby Trial stakes. The horse has got the stuff to press Chrome.
In the end, I'd think Chrome, despite lack of breeze work, with just two weeks between races and with an accumulating snow ball of success has enough bottom to prevail. We've seen this sort of conventional training succeed with other horses such as Wise Dan and Zenyatta. They get a certain momentum including the experience of winning and pressing themselves that Bayern, a weaker looking horse than Chrome, lacks.
My pick: CA Chrome, with some trepidation.
And, a strong strong Chrome/Bayern exacta. The other horses are without any chance imo.
posted by rather rapid at
1:34 AM
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