Colonel John's Run

A word about the Preakness tomorrow, but now some more on the inexplicable Derby performance by Colonel John as well as the puzzling decision to take CJ off the TC trail.

One can see from the photo that CJ is the one horse (still alive) that has the size, strength, bearing to take on Big Brown, and a look at the PPs and those You Tube CJ videos shows a training regimen that should have clicked in big time had they chosen to go on, particularly with the post Derby near non-training job being accomplished by Dutrow.

I noted last post that they made a few mistakes with this horse, and that the training, though very good, was short of perfection. And so my reaction of incredulity when the horse basically froze up at the quarter pole. This was totally unexpected given the prep.
You can see from the stretch photo below (shortly before the 1/8) that CJ (white cap and shadow roll on the outside) is but three strides from Big Brown who then spurted away.
We're without any spurting here from CJ. Why?

Could have been anything, of course, bleeding, injury, anything but exhaustion unless you look at it very closely. As usual, there's an explanation.

First, a look at the trip, and then some of the niceties of CJ training compared to Street Sense.

CJ was trained "similar" (I put it in quotes for a reason) to Street Sense and most obviously had a trip planned in advance exactly like Nafzger's (and Tafel's) horse. Unlike SS however, CJ came out of the gate on the bridle, very eager(interpret: failed to train for the trip that resulted), received a bump or two and had to be restrained due to traffic. My guess that CJ expended himself down the lane the first time far more than SS a year ago. Simultaneously, due to the mistake in planning lady luck left Cory Nakatani almost hopelessly behind from the get go given his horse's training.

Like SS CJ began a (obviously planned) drive down the back stretch. Unlike SS I believe (he was out of the video) CJ started his run before the 5.5 pole, whereas the SS run basically began at the 5f. CJ was thus asked to run almost a whole furlong sooner than SS, which proved a fatal error.

Moreover SS was on the rail and CJ was strung out wide for his whole run creating at least a 1/4 furlong deficit in distance by the quarter pole. But, there's more. I timed the inside SS move from the 5f to the 2f at :37.5. The similar CJ outside move was 34.4 by my rough calculation.--at least a :35. CJ was flying whereas SS was merely galloping fast. SS was :23 between the 3f and the 1f because there was something left after the slower run. CJ due to his longer and faster run and greater early expenditure of effort was done.

CJ by his training had become a machine of a horse. We might have expected CJ to endure this move and go on. Believe he failed for a few reasons:

1. SS had been primed for such a move since early January by his trainer and jock. CJ was not. The Santa Anita Derby shows CJ midpack and the run in that race was 2f at the most instead of the 6f he was asked for in the Derby. CJ had never remotely done anything either in his training or racing that he was asked for in the Derby.
2. SS by his training was an extremely conditioned fit animal. The moxy to go on at speed had been trained into the horse (though Nafzger fell short on speed training which cost him the TC in the Preakness). CJ on the other hand basically did the same workout every day which was far superior to other Derby trainees, but in terms of creating strength and bottom for this long a race and the move asked proved insufficient.

In short, CJ was asked for a long sustained speedy run in the middle of the 1.25 mile race. We have it on video that the training for this fell short. Such you get imo with a trainer that runs horses with their tongue flapping.

I think it's ludicrous they failed to continue with this horse. They did all that work, the nice regular breezes. This is the one horse with enough bottom that with some intelligent work to the Preakness would have run down BB given what Dutrow is about. Disappointing, with the caveat that I am only guessing about this decision made by people that deserve respect.

(Postscript: please note zero words re synthetic surface. Probably takes different muscles. Migh have had an effect. Training failure to get on dirt sooner after Santa Anita Derby?)

Training:
Tues: 5/13: riderless 5 x 1f about 80% speed. Tack work.
Wed. 5/14: Off
Thurs. 5/15 riderless 5 x 1f about 90% speed. The ground is hard, so we're getting bone development without pushing them. Each run is basically 2f by the time they go in and out. So, about 10f of riderless work with speed in the middle. Art did 10 min. trotting with a few steps of gallop under tack afterwards.