Breeder's Cup, Iggy Puglisi And Indian Blessing

I spent 15 minutes handicapping the Classic and another 15 looking at the other races. Would someone in it as I've been and from all angles have any special handicapping insight? We'll see.

The best and most logical training job: Bob Baffert and Indian Blessing. Great minds think alike, and I'd have handled the filly in recent works much the same. Unsurprising that the experienced Baffert probably does the best training of the moment at the upper levels. Look for Indian Blessing to run away with this??? I'm expecting it, even on quick perusal.

There seem to be several other very nice races. This BC to me just has a better feel than in some years. And, with the pro-ride there's less to fear in terms of a breakdown, which provides some comfort to me as I watch.

I spent some specific time on the Classic attempting to sort out the training jobs. In general, let's note it, I've never seen a BC with most of the horses getting this much work. There are, of course, a few remaining East Coast trainers still thinking their horses will win on air instead of conditioning, but these types will as usual get their heads handed back to them. The Europeans will leave this BC--I predict--understanding that they are now actually running against trained horses. I'll be surprised if we see a lot of foreign success today even if that's a bold prediction based on very little solid info.

Now specifically to the Classic. I rated the training jobs based on
1. Number of breeze/races since 9/1, and
2. Total number of furlongs breezed/raced since 9/1.

It turns out the correlation between 1 and 2 above is almost equal, and so I'll just list them once in order of most work to least:

Number of Breezes/Number of Races since 9/1:

8/43f Curlin (some of his Sept. works fail to show so I had to guess.)

8/42f Colonel John (my form fails to show September works, but, we know this horse breezes every 6 days.

6/46 Smooth Air

6/42 Champs Elysees

6/38 Tiago--again, a little guess work as to early Sept.

5/30 Fairbanks

4/21 Student Council

3/18 Casino Drive--there's some evidence CD breezed 5f on Wednesday.

then the Europeans whose work is unknown:
1/8 Ravens Pass
1/10 Duke of Marmalade
2/16 HenryTheNavigator who is interestingly running on lasix.

Here's how I eliminated them:

Smooth Air--no talent, too chunky for the distance, Grade 2 horse, last work too far out (8 days) to maintain top condition.

Tiago--Shireffs problem, he puts the horse under wraps--no galloping--after last work. Assuming this is case, and you are unable to do that and compete at the top. Tiago will fade.
(Edit: Steve Haskins spotted Tiago galloping on track Thurs. and Friday. Still think he's done to little to get ready.)

Fairbanks--Plecher without steroids. More the Grade 2 animal and in lesser physical condition than my picks.

Student Council--lacks speed.

Go Between--need say little more than Mott without steroids. Insufficient work for this horse to compete, per the usual Mott.

The Europeans--I'm doubting their specific training and that Adain O'Brien dares show his face on this side of the Atlantic after what they did to George Washington last year. I sincerely hope his horses finish up the track, and believe they will. Ravens Pass is another matter. See below.

Casino Drive--the Japs will learn you have to do more than walk an hour a day under tack to win the BC Classic.

Bringing us to my Picks:

I'm fairly confident the horses that have done the most work will be there at the end. That would be:

Curlin
Colonel John
Champs Elysees
Ravens Pass is my European wild card.

How will these fare after the 1/8 pole?
Ravens Pass will fade at the end with interesting dynamics for remaining 3. Do it by process of elimination:

First I have to consider the interesting case of Colonel John both by breeding, connections, and talent. Those You Tube videos show a superb breezing job by Iggy Puglisi--here's Iggy:

But, good as Iggy is, do we ask why, going into the BC, Iggy breezes the animal instead of the jock? Sure we have Edgar Prado whose unavailable to them. But, were CJ mine and in particular with this animal and his monster of an efficient stride, think I'd want the race jock on board for those breezes to get in tune.

That's really all CJ has to do, which is to maintain that stride smoothly around the track. I'm doubting that Prado will pick up on this just jumping on the horse, and he'll be without a full appreciation of what he has and how to use it. CJ will fade in the stretch for that reason and that they simply have failed to train CJ for the distance. Eion Hardy, I guess, finally figured out the tongue but shows again himself smart but lacking.

In the end I believe the most conditioned animal will take it. Unsurprising it's Curlin, but look for Champs Elysees to pressure to the wire.

Training:
Thurs. 10/23: raining again. 6 days out of 9 and an unbelievable quagmire. Off.