Sat. Misc.

Tried but failed to complete the next bone post that will appear soon.

Our training:

Wed. 5/26: KC gets .1 inch of rain. But, the farm gets a full inch. Normal off day.

Thurs. 5/27 15 min walk under tack. Muddy.

Fri. 5/28: 26f of riderless gallop primarily in :16s and fairly continuously. then, 10 min. walk-trot under tack. If weather holds we'll be galloping in a day or so.

Onward With Bones

Continuing where I'd left it around 4/17 after Preakness, Derby and getting way off track by wet weather.

First a small epiphany on the subject of fracture resistance(FR) had occurred: that speed related concussive pressure might at the cellular level squeeze bone fibrils together and thereby eliminate or reduce the nano spacing between the fibrils. OR possibly exactly the opposite effect, that the forces of speed work pull or force the fibrils apart. And also, that these two opposing processes might occur simultaneously in the same cannon bone depending on variables as location, state of the conditioning, etc.

In terms of bone remodeling or FR this idea fibrils being squeezed or pressed together and staying that way post race, glued or congealed, to form a denser bone might possibly be a key to understanding. I'd strayed onto this considering the role of calcification in FR--calcification is good, as established previously--and that pressure might increase the rate and quality of calcification.

There's more, but, leave it there this post to get back on track and hopefully to finally conclude here the topic of the minimum requirements of speed work for FR. A busy week at the RR ranch, and will try to get this going on Friday.

Training: 14 days of mud concluded last Friday. We trained commencing Saturday for 4 straight days riderless ending Tues. night, and it was progressively harder and faster about 3.5 miles/day in spurts. Very hard but short speed bursts Mon. and Tues, the horses looked good considering the amount of off time since 4/22. Off today after 4 hard days, and, weather willing, tack work resumes on 5/27. The predicted 3 days of rain this week have yet to materialize, knocking on wood.

Training Update

An update until the next bone post that will appear soon. And I have to comment on that nicely done article on training by Bill Pressey that appeared in Blood Horse. Good job, Bill!

Here in KCMO, by Monday 5/24, we'll be in our 14th straight day of mud. Our ground Friday morning is shown in the photo. There are horses in the middle upper right.

This weather equates with our April 2009 where weather wiped out the whole training month.

I have this year been able to do a little with the young horse here and there. But, as I think about the last nine months of weather the period since Sept. 2009 equates cumulatively to the worst stretch of wet the last 3 years. It gets worse, and then worse and worse. Essentially we've been unable to do any race prep on our ground dating to mid Sept. 2009 due to the weather.

In the last two weeks the horses have been off due to soupy muddy conditions except for one day of walking under tack, which I decided was primarily useless, and last Wed. when the mud was surprisingly packed down and we were able to do a few riderless spurts where the horses somehow kept their shoes. We might have trotted any other horse except our Rolling Rodney who just has trouble at this gait in these sorts of conditions.

Today we have dry with sun and wind. It starts again, I suppose. And, we go with what mother nature deals to us.

Tues. Misc.

Does this horse have pasterns slightly longer than ideal size? Might revisit this some time when the blog gets to performance.

Was speculating--is possibly the reason that Baffert has been lighter in training on Lucky than he was e.g. Silver Charm, those pasterns? I am a fan of Preston Burch training, but thinking Lucky would need a lesser schedule.

As for us here in KCMO, weeeee. 1.34 inches of rain. On the way. 5 inches last week. 15 of the last 23 days had rain, next 3 days rain, 18 rain days of 26. So much for my hope for a trainable May.

Soupy ground beneath standing water pastures. Horses have been off. We had one riding session on the one non-rain day last week.

Peak Handicapping

Ever a better handicapping job than this? My first listen to Andy Serling.

Dirt Road To Preakness

I had two bucks on Dublin. Refuses to run. Got one just like him. And, another questionable ride by Gomez. I thought this was a quality field. All big strong horses. But, conventionally trained, and so, it's good that the one trainer with his head above the crowd should win it. Although, how that get that sort of performance without a breeze falls in Bill O'Gorman's word of "inexplicable".

As for the rest, I'd noticed Yowanna Twist and his nice second in Illinois Derby, and though trained by Dutrow, probably the second quality (?) trainer here, as probably less than up to these in terms of talent. But, the conditioning showed in the race. First Dude I also noticed with the Blood Horse interview of Dale Romans. 17 hands + for the horse and training well. Must have a stride.

Super Saver--well, what can you say. Unknown to me, but can you keep a horse mostly in the barn and do a little 3f breeze and expect the horse to have much in the stretch? As an aside, I noticed pre-race the horse was trying to take a dump, but the handlers just refused to let him stop walking so he could relax and go. He tried to stop them but they failed to notice. Little stuff. When you're on the way over there, you've got to be aware of the horse trying to dump. Some just won't unless their stopped and have a chance to relax. He kept raising his tail, then stopping them and raising his head. I noticed it. They, otherwise.

Paddy O'Prado--same deal. Questionable training. Zero breezing since Derby by a trainer hardly known for rigorous galloping otherwise. Same trainer as First Dude. But, they were priming First Dude and relaxing with grey. Questionable. Schoolyard Dreams I'd identified as a fraud. They've done too little with the horse.

Training:

Here in KC it's raining again. I believe that's about 5 out of the last 7 days with a couple more days to go. I'm aiming for a race track, June 1 and losing my conditioning again. Walked him under tack in the mud yesterday. All we could do.

Preakness Thoughts

The Preakness is upon us. This year my interest is abnormally low as this group of trainers both fails to excite in any way with their methods, or generate any real interest for their horses. What I know about the race is from a glance. Coverage of the race, similar to the Derby, seems to have shrunk enormously, and we see almost zero video of the horses or their preparation, such as it is.

All I have observed is that the lesser horses in terms of accomplishment are somewhat being put through their paces--Jackson Bend, e.g., and so, if you like pre-race fast breezing, that sort of thing will catch the attention. And, the front runners are being subjected to powder puff training to the point they barely see the race track. Can Super Saver, e.g. possibly be up to his snuff off of a few 1 1/8 mile gentle gallops, one little 3f breeze which I applaud, and "jogging" for crying out loud, on Wed. before the race. Good looking horse, though, and the type talented enough to overcome this nonsense. The recently challenged Lucky under Baffert will go into the race with zero works and from the one photo looks the part of a horse who'se done very little this year. Injury possibly? This is very un-Baffert like. While you'd be tempted to put some coins on Lucky, can this be done rationally with the non-training?

Again, I've just glanced at this, but the one horse that catches my attention is Dublin. You know Lukas is motivated, and I agree with Lukas that he's a decent horse talent wise. And, Garrett Gomez on Dublin will be pumped. I'll probably take a little closer look in the morning.

Training:
Blow up this one at left you'll see the senior citizen mouse murderer resting by the latest water puddle contemplating, I guess, jumping in for a swim or possibly planning the next homicide. But, catch up on our training.

3 inches of rain so far this week + 3 or 4 more days coming. Essentially we've had another 10 days taken away by mud. The prior week was a very hard training week. We ran the horses fast riderless 3 out of 4 straight days at some volume, and were finally able to get in some galloping last Monday. Two days of galloping this year with our ground conditions. This week since Mon. has been so wet we've yet to do anything, and will start again tonight, Fri.

Training

It is raining cats and dogs at training time. Another week of rain in KC. This is dog poop. I am getting pissed. Will post more later.

Sun. Training

Testing the camera. Looks good at low resolution, perhaps.

Vid #1: rounding 'em up. They take off the wrong way!
#2 pregame meal #3 riderless fast looks slower at 26 frames/min.

Training

We're still here. Post the training; next post soon.

Tues. 5/4: Off

Wed. 5/5: 10 min. intermittent riderless slow + 10 min walk-trot.

Thurs: 5/6: 10 min of riderless 2m stuff + 10 min walk-trot.

Fri: 5/7: five min session of short fast riderless spurs about 1/2 F. getting older horse up to speed after abscesses-- both front feet. For once we got lucky and the racer managed to avoid these. then 10 min walk-trot tack work, less trot. the horse is uncomfortable trotting due to his breathing. We're working around a "spooky" part of the track and should be galloping in a day or so.

Tues. Misc.

Strange to wake up, click on the satellite images on Accuweather today and some other small part of the country except us under a yellow rain cloud. The normal around here is this from 4/23. I lost the nice red ones that were over the farm Sunday 5/2. It has been so bad we have

one day of galloping for 2010 so far, and about that many since late Oct.

But, today is clear, merry month of May and sunshine ahead. With every rare clear day the mind set is, we can get started now?Indeed we probably have 30 or so days of undisturbed training ahead. If that could be done, we might be breezing the horse by early June. He's in fairly decent shape, considering. The photo was about 4/29. Mud over barn floor. They roam in there while we're shoeing.

Training:

Sat. 5/1: Derby day. 10 min riderless spurts and 10 walk under tack. Prior 10 days was mostly off due to constant rain.

Sun. 5/2: Off. Weather fakes us out. Accuweather shows torrential rain over farm at 2 pm. Get to farm and not a drop. Lucky for once.

Mon. 5/3: 10 min riderless spurts. The 15 yr. old is back after two months of fighting abscesses. This is good! 10 min walk-trot. Trot were we can. I'll do a video soon which shows the trouble with Rod and his trot.

Mon. Misc.

Did they know something when they used the word "Super" in Super Saver's name?

In disadvantageous conditions for big horses, Dublin and Stately Victor finished strong. Both would be tough in the Preakness, and so, fail to get waiting for the Belmont where distance would compromise them. Stately Victor--we like the horse, question the trainer, although Maker's training has been interesting.

Borel's ride: Textbook. Get's his horse in position out of the gate, has him galloping along all the way at a reasonable pace, never accelerates a hop until he hits the quarter pole, has enough horse left thus to finish, whips like crazy in the stretch knowing something will be coming, and was. Everything perfect!

Icebox and his ride: How many years has Zito ridiculously "sent" his undertrained horses off of 4f breezing? But the incompetent old dog learned a new trick and so, in 2010 we have Zito and a Mine That Bird Strategy with Icebox. Almost worked. But, was it as impressive as those final strides looked. Definitely otherwise, if you watch the race. How difficult is it for a perfectly built for the conditions horse to lope around there in 12.75s, and look like he's flying at the end against a stopped field? I'll be surprised to see this again, and, I almost used the word "amazed". But, we'll see.

Conveyance. Good lord. My Twin Spires account takes another hit. I'm trying to get in the mind of this jock pressing the horse gate to wire in these conditions. Baffert said pre-race, he'd just like to let Conveyance run, instead of trying to rate as in NM. Is there a difference between letting a horse run and urging him when he's 5 lengths ahead at the 6f on a sticky track? I'm thinking possibly Baffert is at the state of one too many highballs. Ok, I get the strategy of letting him run on a "fast" track. On this track, I might have to rethink. I am nearly convinced Conveyance was merely being used as a rabbit.

How did my "number of speed works/furlongs" thing work this year noting again I paid little attention to the Derby, and, if I had, videos were unavailable? Rankings here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2010/04/derby-rankings.html

they finished in inverse order, by and large. Will be something to consider when blog gets to "performance". Take note that those at the front, except for the winner, were small hoofed horses built for the conditions.

As to SS what my handicapping failed to take note of was that pre-Derby and since 4/10/10 day of the Arkansas Derby, this horse probably was trained by Calvin Borel instead of Plecher. By my guess, SS likely was the only horse in the field to gallop out to 1 mile after his breezes in his two pre-derby works. And, because the last race was 4/10, Plecher had zero time for the usual Plecher post race powder puff. And, very talented animal, by the photos.

Derby Thoughts

Congrats to Win Star farm. Need a dozen more like them.

Calvin Borel's thought process: I am on the best part of the track. Good. 3 lengths. I am saving ground all the way around. Good. 3 lengths. Riders to my outside. Fools.

Making Borel's day? same errors by the opposition vs. himself, race after race?

How does a jock ride this well? Sports IQ, Chess IQ, you can have one without the other as I have observed it on the basketball court at numerous downtown YMCAs. There you watch street boys cleverly passing, setting up the opposition, sorting their way through complex interaction. Nobody truly dumb could do this, and, you think that this sort of brilliance and artistry on display requires some sort of very high intelligence that positively must be unrelated to IQ as we normally consider. Unnecessary to understand Shakespeare to be adept at pattern recognition in fast moving sport, in fact, Shakespeare may be a hindrance.

Plecher? I have nothing against him. And, nothing particularly for him. How highly is it possible to consider the Derby winning trainer that also managed to screw up the Derby favorite?

Best mare, best sire, best trainer, best facilities best operation finally win the Derby on the same day that $4500.00 yearling purchase Atta Boy Roy and his State of Washington trainer Valorie Lund take the CD stakes. While cheap horses dominate major stakes of late, looking at the Derby field pedigrees, possibly when the rubber hits the road, quality of breeding does show.

Haskins: pedigree clearly make Stately Victor a mudder. The rider Alan Garcia: "My horse didn't seem to like the track". Lol. Haskin's Derby pick (and Lenny) was Lookin at Lucky. Stable Boy picked Super Saver without hesitation.

My Derby Pick: Conveyance, good lawdy. Congrats to those that had SS!

Today's major sports sites front pages--SI, ESPN, Sporting News, CBS Sports, barely a whiff of the Derby. NTRA marketing department that completely out to lunch?

Ice Box, the 2nd most ill-trained horse in this field misses by a rat's whisker. What's going on? To quote myself:

"McPeek: Noble's Promise: best construction for navigating muddy track, though. And, a very good horse.

Ditto, throw out due to trainer: Jackson Bend, Ice Box."

The horses prominent in the stretch seemed horses built to the conditions, although Super Saver seems a stoutly built individual.

Nice Derby. Looked to me a talented field.

Derby Images

Sticky track but less heavy than 2009. Does SS have small, average, large hoofs? On this photo, I'd say "average".
This shows how the hoofs take mud and water with each stride. Larger the hoof, the more there is to lift.
Borel outbreaking the rest to get position. Lookin At Lucky being taken back. Below, What does KY Derby winner look like?

Final Final Derby Thoughts

Lookin At Lucky: can you win from the #1 spot in the slop. Odds against Lucky seem insurmountable. He'll either be covered in mud from the get go or have to fight through deep slop along the rail to get into better position. Lucky is unlucky today and must throw him out.

Conveyance has the best workouts for the year and also recent pre-derby workouts. He's the only horse that breezed every 6 days (instead of 7) recently, and only that shows appropriate Derby type speed in his breezing. I see only 3 points of call where this horse has ever been headed. Is that impressive?

Horses with more than 7 days last breeze tend to finish up the track: Dean's Kitten, Paddy O Prado, Stately Victor

Homeboy Kris: Dutrow is at it again with a breeze on 4/28. Did he breeze the horse this morning (idiot). Take note. But, no racing since Feb, and looks a lesser talent.

Awesome Act breezed 4/27. Will amke him tougher. He's also a lighter horse that should get through the slip. There's little about this training that makes me think "truly European" in e.g. the Gosden style. I'd avoid.

Devil May Care: what a great story for John Greathouse and Glencrest Farm if she wins. Unlike 8Belles, she seems to have enough training to make it around there. And, she is perfectly built for slop!

Dublin will be compromised. Too heavy for slop. Even his blinkers will be wet in the stretch.

Ice Box is another with a nice build for conditions. He's a throw out. Zito. I'd truly despise this trainer being rewarded with any kind of good finish.

Line of David: superior race tab, nice work tab, look at the record. if he's healthy how can you keep him out of exotics?

Mission Impazible is a slightly hardened Plecher powderpuff.

Paddy O'Prado is trained by Dale Romans. Enough said. Throw out.

Super Saver: When your last two breezes before the Derby are powderpuff workouts, if you win Preston Burch would be rolling in his grave.

Good luck to all!

Final Derby Thoughts

We all know what dangers running in the slop poses. And, the magnification of that when it's over 1.25 miles that none of these horses either have run or have appropriately trained for. So, begin with that cheery thought, but how can this reality be ignored that horses such as the heavily build Sydney's Candy will experience geometrically more concussion than any of their training or prior running.

Yet, let's be optimistic in one aspect. I know Bryce Peckam personally. He's the KY State Vet, and Peckam will do everything in his power to prevent any prior injured horses from starting. Our sport has yet to resort to science in the pre-race checks. That will happen, hopefully sooner than later.

But, put these thoughts behind. Any late considerations with regard to the race? I'm checking the PPs again right now, and will post conclusions presumably before they come out of the gate.