Wednesday, May 30, 2012

O'Neill Pushing The Envelope Not


So much for the idea Doug O'Neill has learned anything.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70109/oneill-no-workouts-for-ill-have-another

My original thought--and this is the 8ball phenomenon--was that the success of I'll Have Another was tied to a series of nice breeze work prior to the KY Derby followed by consistent fast galloping in the :14 sec/f range for some distances into the Derby and Preakness.  I'd posted that u'r unable to continue that sort of work without injuring ur horse, and hence the 8ball question.

To clarify the 8ball, if you have a trainers license there are lines u r unable to cross and still hold that license.  Interesting comment on Pressey's blog today perfectly illustrates the point to the effect the lady said that if IHA breezed 3 times between Preakness and Derby like Seattle Slew O'Neill would be ruled off.

If you're a trainer the Q is always--where is the line?  If u're unable to do 3 breezes without calling yourself into Q, what about two breezes.  If you're galloping IHA 2 m licks everyday with :14sec. bursts down the line and the colt would go down in the Belmont with a catastrophic injury where are u?  The buzzards would be circling over you and your horse.

To think this very possibility is anywhere except in forefront of O'Neill's mind is to never yourself have been there.  This Q is in every trainer's mind.

However, for those who want to work/race their horses hard, as I have in the past, albeit at smaller venues out of the limelight, you are still being watched.  Fellow trainers with their snide remarks because they think, likely correctly, that u r showing them up with their owners, the Stewards, the State Vet.  That meddlesome Bryce Peckham, when he was king of Eureka Downs as "Kansas State Vet" knew exactly that my horses were training hard and was on me constantly.

And so, if your planning your works for a race with hard training, you are in fact behind the 8ball in your decision as to where the line is that you must avoid crossing.  With O'Neill, quite obviously--looking at the IHA galloping vids on Daily Racing Form--he has made the line go away by declining to continue to work his colt.

Comment on specific IHA prep next post.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Trainers Behind The Eight Ball

Those of us that bother with training and exercise physiology understand that you can safely race a horse once a week likely for about 3 weeks in a row.  This sort of protocol (I have done it) also produces progressively stronger performances given appropriate off day training.  Third start in a row is likely to produce a win or near win.  Take two weeks off from racing, repeat.

Monitor ur horse's health of course. One 5f  breeze in :13s sometime during the week.  Daily 20 minutes in the ice tub for the front legs after horse leaves the track.  Necessary to protect the horse's lungs or horse will never make it through.  This is were lasix comes in on race day.  Use Xantax (anti-bleeder herbal mix--works well) before breezing and a heavy dose of lasix as preventative on race day.  To the extent your horse bleeds u can generally tell by experience in monitoring the post race/post breeze/post gallop coughing--how heavy, frequent and how quickly it subsides.  This heavy style of training--Preston Burch--most horses will likely suffer light EIPH that will improve with conditioning but needs to be controlled, or ur down the tube.

Also protect the horse's stomach.  Going off feed is highly unhelpful.  I am proactive in that I give as much lactobicillus as I can afford--i.e. almost every day, and certainly after race/breeze.  And, when you come off the track u take the short route to the wash rack and cool ur horse down immediately.

Carrying on this schedule, one rather giant problem--your trainer's license.  The Steward and State Vet know what ur doing with ur horse.  Race a horse once a week and it's equivalent of seeing a suspicious looking vehicle parked outside your house.  People notice.  Guarantee Bryce Peckham raced his eyebrow a few times re I'll Have Another's daily work at Churchill.

They will never say anything until your horse breaks down during a race. Then they will close in like a pack of buzzards over a fresh kill.  Hence, the 8 ball.

Training--took another fall, this time feeding my horses. Two feet up the steep muddy slope, lose the legs and ram the hips into a concrete abutment.  Very sore and off till it heals..

Saturday, May 26, 2012

O'Neill Behind The Eight Ball (continued)

When u're there on the back stretch daily preparing a horse for a race, there are some worries (as I am recalling--and that's for preparing for the weekend race at Eureka Downs)  What  worries, and do they magnify with a TC candidate?

Confide that Doug O'Neill has a lot to worry given his history. 
There's old Doug O'Neill and (apparently) the new one.  O'Neill was closely looked at this blog October-November 2008.  Some excerpts with comments in bold type between the lines below:

___________________________________

O'Neill's 2008 Record:
793 starts 110 wins 123 place 117 show
2008 win percentage: 14%
2008 win,place, show percentage: 44%
2008 national ranking in terms of number of wins: 29th just ahead of William I. Mott

Pretty good you're thinking. Here's Thor's Echo winning the 2006 B.C. Sprint. "Thor's Echo Injured. Thor's Echo, the champion sprinter of 2006 will not start in this months (2007) BC sprint because of a splint bone injury, trainer Doug O'Neill said..."

In former days it was a small miracle when any O'Neill horses actually make it to the big race.  Casualty list:  Azul Leon etc.etc. etc. and, ooops, more 2008 O'Neill stats:

89 of the top 100 2008 trainers have a better win/place/show % than Doug O'Neill, i.e. there are only 11 rated worse than O'Neill's 44%. The little red flags start to wave.

332 O'Neill trainees for 2008. They have had 793 starts. 2.38 starts per horse. .331 wins per horse(yes, that's point 3).
___________________________________________

If u're a major trainer managing "2.38 starts per horse" before permanent injury retirement--good grief-- how do you ever get any clients?  For the average horse in their stable they got 1/3 of a win per horse for perspective as to how bad it was in O'Neill's 2008 barn.

Now this same trainer has his hands on a TC candidate.Given his 2008 injury rate of permanently injuring 50% of the the horses in his stable every 3 months (based on my 2008 exam with disclaimers) , what is going through this fellow's mind regarding I'll Have Another?  It's normally ok to send a horse out there for a 2m gallop with a couple furlongs in :14s.  When u've done that 4 days in a row with the horse--given ur injury record--what's going through your mind.  Interesting dynamic, hence the 8 ball analogy. More next post..

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Doug O'Neill Behind The Eight Ball

Can one fat ass beat the other in the Belmont?  That lady in the orange is Dale Romans wife btw.  It's been a little weird training wise, for who'd have guessed the coming training revolution in the sport would be spearheaded by these two lard buts?  It's a little like Nixon's visit to China.  The staunch anti-communist bad mouthing the evil empire and then his visit there to China in, what, 1971, starting the opening up of that closed Mao dictatorship to the West.  They said only an anti-communist like Nixon could have done it.

Belmont yesterday barn notes indicate Romans is preparing Dulahan with 2.5 mile gallops and "is aware" reportedly that it's necessary to train a horse to go 1.5 miles.  Michael Matz has obviously yet to get the message and we'll see whether Matz's talented horse can overcome his training.  Doubtful.

My point that O'Neill is behind the 8 ball has however nothing to do with Dale Romans.  Let's confide once again that Doug O'Neill has one of the most horrific injury rates I looked at on the blog 2 or 3 years ago.  The training in that stable is/was strictly a numbers game, if you want to call what they did training.

Now, suddenly, O'Neill has his little training epiphany with I'll Have Another, and who knows exactly how that happened.  However, anybody that's been on the race track quite a bit knows that O'Neill is pushing his horse. IHA has survived, so far.  The Q of the moment is how much longer can a horse do :14s for 2 miles every day (and, I have zero idea what they're really doing), and the horse lasts?  There are some ethical and, frankly, trainers license Qs involved in this. Expound next post.

Training:

15 min at 4.4 mph this morn.  Took it easy today.

Sunday, May 20, 2012



Great race! A few post race musings:

IHA 3 and 4 wide all the way around and nail biting finish!

Measured B from 4f. 4f surge.  Never bobbles. 

Which brings up subject of rook jock measuring race, and measuring Belmont with TC on the line. Any concerns?   Have to go with Gutierrez.  Otherwise bloom off TC. This is, however, the point at which O'Neill possibly qs his own jockey judgment.  Stick to!

Top 3 from West coast.  East coast best trainer finishes next.

Great athletes, well coached, give memorable performances. That IHA would win this race given training of the rest, there was little doubt.

On that subject--who besides me unable to bet on this race are crying in their cereal this morning over the lost opportunity to make a small fortune on this Preakness.  Exacta $18, IHA $8 to win.  Good grief!

Effect of Lava Man on IHA.  Anybody watch dynamic of these two just before starting gate?

IHA as only one at Pimlico for the duration?

Slower Bodemeister fractions at Pimlico vs. record fractions at Churchill, B had nothing left in either race after 1 and 1/8 miles.  Note to "experts":  Does it follow necessarily that if u slow down a horse running too fast early last race, that same  horse will necessarily have more left in late stretch? 

Query--Baffert trains IHA and ONeill B--who wins Preakness?

Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens--Neither that I heard commented on IHA training as a factor in the race.  A little baffling perhaps for two Hall of Fame jocks, or merely more normal human inability to connect the dots?

Things I noticed at the outset:  Did IHA raise his tail to start to dump just before they grabbed him into the starting gate?  I never thought this horse looked overly comfortable galloping at any point in the race, possibly for that reason.

Did IHA go down the stretch out of the gate on the wrong lead?  Sort of looks like it.  Three possibilities--jock failed to change (rookie), injury, jock took note, but with short distance left him there.
Note--did saving right lead early lead to stronger closing kick?  Happens.

Preparation of IHA into the Belmont will be interesting. Training between Preakness and Belmont in last 1/3 century possibly explains lack of TC winner???

Are they making too little that IHA sold for $11,000.  Opportunity to promote horse ownership?--and, Tom Hammond it's "IHA sold as $11,000 as a yearling, instead of IHA sold for $35,000 and btw was an $11,000 yearling.  Why even mention the $35,000?  He is an $11,000 yearling, period.

W/o:
4.05 miles--max speed 4.2 mph, av. speed 4 mph. HR 105

Friday, May 18, 2012

Two Horse Race?

In the "picture worth a thousand words" category, I know it's the wash rack, does this horse look a tad worn?  And, yes, they better be icing those front legs.  Early on I decided to avoid predicting injury in races primarily to avoid becoming Dr. Doom,  since there's reason almost every time to pick one, and heaven forbid if it happens.
I make an exception here and there as I did with the obvious idiocy with 8Belles.  Those people had to be called out.  In this case the Q is whether you can do 1-2 miles (per Pressey comment last post) in :14s every day and survive.  My one rat experience with Groovin' Wind as an early three year old when my horse was flashing a little Derby talent was that you're unable, and yes, in those days Wind spent 20 min exactly in the ice tub after every one of his track runaways.  A hot spot developed on his shin, developing saucer fracture, and we stopped. I'll Have Another has a couple of hot spots.  Wild guess.

If IHA survives the trip, and let's pray he does for this high injury rate trainer, who wins the race? I lack any time to handicap,and so, this will be one of those walk into the pavilion, look at the TV monitor, check the odds,look at the available video and go on what shows on the spur of the moment..

What a no-brainer tri-fecta sort of race (disclaimer again--at a glance).  IHA,Bodemeister and Creative Cause.  There's Graham Motion again except that trainer wins only when he get's lucky, which means racing against inferior to these.

Successful instinct bets on the training.  Baffert, to my knowledge, has  declined any speed work.  Can a horse repeat Bode's Derby performance off of two weeks of slow gallops.  Easy answer:  No.  And, there's also the Q, if Bode goes slower does he necessarily have the conditioning to take off at the 3/8 and leave the others behind as the fastest horse in the race as all the experts seem to be assuming?

A couple of thoughts.  Bode is fast, but that hardly makes him the fastest.  IHA looks more like a Flower Alley than an Arch. However, take it from here.  Arches can fly.  I'd have to think Bode fades again off the training, and at the wire it will be Creative Cause (who in the one photo I saw) has a bloom,and IHA, if the latter has anything left.  Certainly the horse in the stretch that will still have his air will be my pick, possible jock experience q,  IHA.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Preakness Misc.

The blog is going on a short hiatus due to unexpected personal business.  Might be handicapping Preakness if can find the time.  The Preakness Barn notes have been disappointing (complete waste?) What, for out loud, is IHA doing on track, etc.  Guess Baffert passes on any speed work.  Interesting.. Who will come in 3rd?  Dutrow, maybe.  I thought he was banned.

Txs. for nice comment last post!    --16 yr. olds can still gallop, and much congrats for getting her in shape for what your'e asking!, Rare to see in the show barns.  Groovin' Wind was still going strong last yr. at 16..  Best of luck on the circuit with ur horse! post a photo sometime!

Monday, May 14, 2012

Preakness Training

Finally found the Pimilico barn notes such as they are.  As in human athletics the persons writing them are without any appreciation or understanding of the nuts and bolts of an athletic performance, and hence the "barn notes" say very little other than who went to the track.

The Preakness trainers, apparently, are taking Jack Van Berg's advice to avoid breezing en masse.  That is, for the one's that raced in the Derby, and, I guess, that's Creative Cause, Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, I'll Have Another.  It's to to bad that a potentially great colt such as Hansen is in traditional conventional trainer hands and therefore skipping this race where with any sort of intelligent training he'd be right in there.

So, if ur'e a Derby trainer with your horse running a tough race and you're looking at the Preakness two weeks down the road, what is the thought process? Graham Motion's obviously is, do nothing.  Ditto with Animal Kingdom a year ago. They never learn. Went the Day Well first hit the track after the Derby on Friday and apparently Fri and Sat. galloped only a mile.  We know it was about a :17 sec/f gallop from what Animal Kingdom did last year.  Went the Day Well likely will do other than that on Preakness Day.

Bodemeister has been galloping Baffert style, which is also about :17 sec./f for 1.5 miles every day since Wed. (I think).  Will be interesting if Baffert does any speed work going into the Preakness.  Surely he will.

Creative Cause has I think since Thurs. been trotting 1 mile galloping another.  This is fairly decent training in terms of volume though I have zero idea how this moves the horse up for the Preakness.

And there's I'll Have Another who trotted Wed. and since Wed., apparently has done his 2 min clip stuff and a little faster down the lane.  I take it the total distance is about 1.5 miles.  Obviously this colt is both getting his Derby bounce due to his training, is out speeding the rest of the trainers every single day and should, depending on what the others do, probably run away with the Preakness IF he holds together.  I've written that you're unable to get away with 2 min. clipping every day and will stand by that.  Of course it might be different if the distance is just 5f of this.  Nevertheless a horse will obviously thrive on this sort of work until the moment when you've bent the wire back and forth just one too many times.  Worry.

The other interesting aspect is the trainer comments on how "shocked" all of them are as to how well their horses bounced out of the Derby. I can never understand this.  Good grief.  If your horse is healthy and you've done a good job of training why would you expect anything other than that the horse would bounce back quickly.  The exception to this is horses that go off feed due to loss of gut bacteria.  If the horse has survived going off feed then I'd be amazed if the horse did anything but be fresh as a daisy two days after the race, and, that's what they're all reporting about their horses, or course, though "in amazement".  As noted, all these guys know how to throw horse feed.

Today's training:

1 hr. 3.59 miles  Av. speed 3.5mph, top speed 3.8 mph HR 95. Inj. still holding together, maybe strengthen slightly. had to resist bumping up speed today.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Preakness Thoughts

The above horse is by Sunday Break (Forty Niner)--Regal Classic.  Looks the part, eh?  Regal Classic one of my favorite horses, and Forty Niner certainly was game and has sired some stout one's.  This is Ponzi Scheme that just won a $150,000 stakes race at Monmouth and was bought as a yearling for $3500.00.  Let's recall that the Derby winner sold for $11,000 as a yearling, equivalent, likely to $5000.00 when I got into the game in the mid 1980s.  It is/was any easy game in terms of buying the horse.  Wondering how the reduced foal crops will affect, and also, of course, the baying hounds with the deep pockets trying to shrink the game for themselves (see Barry Irwin).

As to the Preakness, Gemologist--report was hoof problem.  Abscess, bruise, who knows.  It happens.  However, color myself (highly) skeptical.  When a horse does run the first 6f then backs up 6f this is sign of something other than a hoof.  And then we have Todd Plecher's (horrendous) injury record. Educated guess that Gemologist has more problems than a hoof.  I'm still trying to fathom Super Saver winning the Derby for Plecher, an e.g. possibly of horses outrunning their training.

And, they're declining to work I'll Have Another purportedly on the advice of Jack Van Berg.  That's it.  Read Preston Burch's book, kind of, sort of, adopt the training, and then forget all about it and take the advice of a pure conventional trainer such as Jack Van Berg.  Doug O'Neill is obviously a smart educated fellow.  He sounds like he has a higher IQ than yours truly.  Go figure.

At any rate, the way they gallop I'll Have Another one can understand the lack of a formal breeze.  Let's mark it down though.  These trainers that we have typically can prepare a performance.  It's in keeping it going after that first win that they always seem to back off from what got 'em there.  Will see about IHA.

Training the week into the race is very important to performance.  Preakness is putting out daily barn notes.  Intend to have a look and some conclusions, next week.

Sat training:
55 minutes  3.25 miles Av. speed 3.5 mph Top Speed 3.7 mph Heart Rate 92. Weather related soreness in injured area today.

Friday, May 11, 2012

More Home Front

Have given thought on whether to continue with this blog that originally was conceived to document our training.  Nothing here to train at the moment although am holding out hope to get a couple thousand by the fall sales for a new horse.  Had been discussing the subject of performance with the idea of doing what was done on this blog in 2007 in taking the horse through a series of breezes presumably to race day and see how it all works out.  Absent this a discussion of performance would still be interesting possibly, although theoretical.

One way to give this a shot would be to discuss training the young horse from the get go with the idea of eventually getting it there.  What is ideal in terms of what to do with the yearling sales grad?  Might give this a whirl. Still considering.

Back at the ranch there's my personal goal of getting six consecutive 7 min. miles before the end of the year.  This has taken a set back as I have once again discovered first hand that unless injury is avoided, u'll never get there.  I suffered a too fast too soon inj. in mid April and will take to June 1 now to get back to where I was, in mid April.  Am taking a tact of small incremental daily increases in volume and speed.  Maybe start posting at end of each post the day's results and see how it goes.  7 min/mile for 6 miles is 8.6 mph for 6 miles which is moving pretty good.  6.5 min. miles starts to get to competitive distance running speed, for perspective.

Today's (comeback) workout:

50 min.  2.87 miles. 3.4 mph average. 3.6 mph top speed. HR 92 av.  No pain at point of inj. which is a ligament attachment on inner thigh. Quite a way from 8.6 mph.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Local Scene

What's the KCMO half brother to the Deby winner up to these days?

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Derby Thoughts/How'd We Do?

How did the blog do prediction wise, and some more thoughts.

1.  Plecher shoeing both his horses on race day.  How many reasons r there to avoid this hardly the least of which is exhausting the horse on performance day.  Little stuff.

2.  Union Rags yearling managers said when he was at their farm Union Rags was lazy.

3.  Union Rags "bad ride", or was it.  Sometimes the horse just refuses.

4.  Rule out Hanson.  "Sand Rolling vid shows lack of appropriate tightness for Derby."  Hanson got cooked. Heck of a horse that might benefit from a trainer named O'Neill.

5.  "Trainer of Take Charge Indy" as  certifiable idiot."  Hospital records now to prove it.

6.  Bodemeister--"how can u bet against him?" (watching the Ark. Derby).  double for the Preakness, possibly?.  Any horse in the Derby get more out of it training wise than B, if he survive?.  If u're going to run that sort of race,  in terms of injury prevention, would be wise to train for such an effort.

7. Was field really that deep.  Hard to tell.  B basically cooked most of them.

8.Gemologist.  Ran 6f forward and 6f backward.  Bled possibly?

9.  No lasix on Derby Day, they're discussing.  How well would that have worked on a hot humid day such as last Sat?  Half that field would have bled fairly seriously at those speeds in that weather.

10.  "TTimes galloping vid (earlier in week) showed Alpha, Rousing Sermon, Optimizer, El Pradino, Liason non-competitive".  Indeed.  It's always fairly easy to spot those without any chance. 

11.  "Union Rags just fails to look as if he's about to run the race of his life, and so I'm eliminating him from my board".  And then on Sat.one good looking stride of gallop I pick him.  Sometimes, read ur own stuff.

Any difference in the workout schedules of the horses near the front compared to the back.  For anyone interested, some comparisons below.   You'd have to look in close detail to spot the differences.  Right now it's a 5f once a week world.

Creative Cause --note Santa Anita Derby on 4/7
http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09013643

Dullahan--note Blue Grass on 4/14

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09031094

Went The Day Well--

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09005624

Take Charge Indy--Florida Derby on 3/31

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09017086

Gemologist Wood on 4/7

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09000374

Daddy Nose Best Sunland Derby on 3/15. Messed this one up and DRF just removed it.  Typical 5 and 6f Asmussen once a weeks stuff with slow 4f work to my memory Mon. before the Derby.


http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09007391


Monday, May 07, 2012

Some Misc. Derby And IHA

"If training outs, I'll Have Another in a walk away if he holds together.  I always go with the training if it's superior, and here we have both a talented horse and the hardest trained horse."

May 4 RR post. Toot Toot, except I retracted it all Sat. morning after IHA did a Fri. 2 min gallop.  Wish there's have been vids of the track works race week.  On site we have Blood Horse, TT Times, DRF, and Paulick, and Jill Byrne and Co. and best they can manage  are 2 or 3 m. daily reports with 60 seconds of track vid. Pitiful coverage imo.  Lenny Schulman, just stay in bed.  And so, it is hard to judge what IHA actually did on Friday or the rest of the week as there were mere flashes of him rounding the quarter pole.

My concern based on my experience is that horses frequently poop out doing consecutive faster works.  Note Bill Pressey's comment on my Derby post on the differences in heart rate between stakes and claiming horses for the same work.  What does this mean?  Simply that IHA's 2 min. gallop Fri. likely was far less strenuous both in heart rate terms and in a general recovery sense than the effort and recovery abilities of my own lowly hides back in the day.

I'd say there are several theories on what to do the day before race day.  Avoid expounding all that here. It goes with the overall subject of "performance".   We saw IHA 2 min lick every day last week and a tough race on Sat. This is Max Hirsch training gone amuck to the point I'd want to avoid being a corpuscle in that horse's legs just now.  Arch legs.  Nevertheless.  As one with a training license, which gathers one's mind a little, does common sense dictate that u avoid going over the top with any particular horse.  Will be interesting how they train for the Preakness.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050512USA11.pdf

Saturday, May 05, 2012

I'll Have Another Yearling Sales Video

I'll Have Another, Right And Wrong

Sometimes u outsmart urself(see title, last post).  Ok, a horse can win the Derby off 4 straight 2m+ gallops.  I like Bill Pressey's take.  See post comments.  Bloggers take full credit for Derby win.  Doug O'Neill changed up his training after (like thousands of others) read our two blogs (See O'Neill interview link, bottom last post.)

As to the Derby in general, chalk one up for training.  Does anyone thing Patrick Byrne, the trainer of Take Charge Indy or Mike Matz were paying attention.  I'd doubt it.

 This Derby may actually be the beginning of the end of Woody Stephens type conventional training.  Bound to happen.  Q will be whether they'll carry things too far as, in terms of injury prevention, as they have with I'll Have Another.  Let's observe that IHA with those gallops is on the edge of reason.  They simply r unable to survive that sort of nonsense on a consistent basis. There is zero question about that fact.  Yes, obviously this sort of training gets performance--see human 800 meter training--but that's without the tremendous cumulative concussive forces for our horses.

And so, unlike my horse you can 2m+  again the day before the race. In terms of right and wrong however, let's hope those Arch legs will hold up and something rational in Doug O'Neill's head pops before they give out.

Suicidal fractions for Bodemeister. And, what beautiful camera work by NBC. Congrats to Paul Redam and the newly incarnated Doug O'Neill and also Claiborne Farm were Arch stands.  We Arch broodmare horse owners have had a happy day.

Throw Out I'll Have Another

(Edit--Bill Pressey Comment--Bill--here's the link--fairly revealing and intriguing Doug O'Neill Interview starts to memory around the 5 m. mark. Link at bottom of page.  O'Neill fairly obviously recently read Preston Burch's book, or, indeed perhaps he is reading our blogs and the unkind things we have written.  For reasons set out below, unfortunately doubtful he learned much.  Fairly obviously O'Neill is hardly the villain Paulick report tries to portray.  Smart educated guy who likely falls in that 75% having little intuitive sense about athletics.)

What % of the human race has any logical concept of the results of their actions.  Be assured, right now, in muggy hot Louisville half of these horses are stuck in the 20 mph convection of air coming from multiple fans pointed right at them, where they will sit unable to get away from the stream of air till they leave their stalls.

Little stuff.  Put the fans where the horse can use it, and point it so the horse can get away from it when it wants.  And for u blithering idiots still blaring radios outside your stalls at an animal that can hear a pin drop at half a mile may your eternal punishment be to have that same radio plastered against your ear for all time as a reminder of your kindness to your horses.  End of rant.

Point made however that many times things the public never sees affect performance. From Pressey's weather report we have both a tough day to perform and likely horses whose rest was disturbed and in particular those close to the track that had to listen to Butch Lear running his tractors all night.  Ever try sleeping next to an 18 wheeler with the diesel running?

I became intrigued last night and watched a lot of TC races.  Saw most of the horses, missed a few.  Some final observations?

1.  So, by the Blood Horse, John Asher of Churchill is a handicapper and claims wet track conditions will help Gemologist and Union Rags.  That would be contrary to my theory that you never bet large hoofed or heavy horses if the track is sticky in the slightest since the bigger hoofs carry twice as much mud per stride. We saw all the big good ones fade for that reason in the Mine That Bird Derby.  If the track is sticky put ur money on the Liason types, light small hoofs that will motor through the mud, and the light hoofs on the front without the mud on them (Hansen).

2. Other than Remington Park I have yet to see better surfaces for wet weather than in Ky.

3.  Hanson, pound for pound, might be the king of this field.  What a spit fire, watching his races.  Likely they've done too little with him. One of those that should benefit from wet track or deep going.

4.  I'll Have Another.  Had another 2 min. gallop yest. Obviously O'Neill learned nothing reading about Assault.  Last work 10 days out, and week of Derby the horse gallops 2 min. and faster every single day.  Be amazing if he'll have anything left today, and I just hope he makes it through instead of becoming another of that stable's casualties.

5.  Union Rags--Normal track, he's my last minute pick.  Watching the races, man among boys. Training job likely decent enough Zenyatta like build.

6.  Bodemeister--Watching Ark. Derby how could u bet against this horse.  Yet, sometimes things go too well. That was a weak field, never pressed, his day.  Lacks experience, looking a tad worn to me, but who knows.  Very Storm Cat like horse. He's going to be tough. Will benefit from off track.

7.  Field--ok, now I see it.  The depth is almost zero weak horses.

8.  Daddy Long Legs, nice horse. I was underwhelmed by the Dubai effort.  1 gallop in last 4 days. Behind the 8 ball.

9.  Daddy Nose Best--being overrated. Ok horses who won against inferior.

10.  Went The Day Well.  Tiznow brood mare very nice horse who in this stable would have to overcome his training. Failed to do enough to last, probably.

11.  On a normal track I'd expect Hansen, Bodemeister, Gemologist, and Union Rags to be duking at the end.  I'll Have Another will win in a run away if he has anything left.  Doubtful he does.

Links

Doug O'Neill at about 5 min mark.  Revealing interview.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/11331/and-theyre-off-ky-derby-edition?section=and-theyre-off 

And one of my favorites:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp5JCrSXkJY

Friday, May 04, 2012

Derby Choice

(Edit--Bill Pressey's comment.  Ya--never figure it.  Because a horse is quarantined why is he unable to go to a track.  Seems they need to provide a track somewhere where the quarantined horse can run.  they're catching up with Baffert training possibly?? )

Crossed off 7 yesterday.  Though this blog by memory has questionable success picking the actual winner, unable to recall a horse ever winning a race that I have eliminated.  Elimination is the easy part and picking the winner out of those left standing the hard.  Am have a bit of second thoughts about Liason who seems just the type of light long strider built for this sort of race.

They're raving about this field compared to past.  I fail to see it.  This actually looks to me a less than average field.  The fact that they race so seldom contributes to the difficulty in sorting them out and seeing whether anybody has unusual talent.  Steve Haskin is perplexed, and that's a new one on the eve of the Derby.

Some thoughts last 24 hrs.

Creative Cause (eliminated)--I think his trainer is a vet and so would be amazed if they're sending him out there injured, except do you have to wonder about a horse that's moving stiffly from the get go.  Lost to the inexperienced--of course u're unable to see the mild lameness when they're galloping.  You trot them to view lameness.  Otherwise the horse jogged a mile and galloped I believe a mile and 3/8 after walking the shedrow two straight days taking what was accomplished in the breeze right out of him. Too much volume of slow work.

Dulahan--fairly intelligent training it seems.

I'll Have Another--can u get away with 2 min licking and faster every day--unable, definitely.  I worry about soundness.  The horse likely is the best conditioned in the field.  Interesting interview with O'Neill yesterday. Mentioned old time training and Assault and how they've switched up their training.  Maybe trainers can change their stripes. O'Neill is inexperienced in this sort of training. Can u get away with 2 min lick and faster every day.  Take my word:  u can't.  Maybe he lasts for a race and he's got those nice legs from his grandpa.  But this is dangerous training.

Hansen--quite a spit fire.  Will he maintain that on race day.  I've seen them this way all week and on race morning they're wet rags.  He looks tighter than in his sand roll.  I fail to see it. More talented horses with similar training.

Bodemeister--looks completely unimpressive in gallops and relative appearance.  I think he'll get run down.

Union Rags--obviously the talent in the field. Watched a vid that he was lazy as a youngster, and he still looks lazy to me like my Rodney before I started sharpening him with daily competition.  I think UR will fail to try hard enough to win.

Let's see--who does that leave?

Asmussen's horses--have'nt seen them. know nothing about them.  The trainer is always a threat.

Barry Irwin's horse trained by Graham Motion. Reader here know what I think of this training and trainer. Unlikely.

I've paid attention only this week, and so this is highly unscientific:

The training is similar except for one and so talent should out.  That means Gemoligist and Untion Rags down the stretch and figure Hansen and a surprise horse will be right in there with them. If training outs, I'll Have Another in a walk away if he holds together.  I always go with the training if it's superior, and here we have both a talented horse and the hardest trained horse.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Gemologist

Looked better on the track than coming off the trailer.  Tiznow. Mr. Prospector mare.  Floats over the track, beautifully efficient stride.  And, surmise by the breeding that G can breathe and has speed.  I was fairly impressed with the Wood Memorial, unlike the "experts" at Daily Racing Form.  That was a nice effort coming off an allowance race, 2d race of the year , 4th lifetime start.  What more might they have been expecting?

Does the undefeated G have a shot?  I'd say the weight and size of this horse is a handicap for him in terms of cardiological and lactic acid cost factors.  G, similar to I'll Have Another, has the equipment to move it, but also shows lesser training--although, this seems a little better job this year by Plecher than what generally shows for that trainer.

G's work tab + there was an allowance race 3/16 and the Wood on 4/7.

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09000374

4 works per month since 2/1 which is what i have available at slightly faster than normal Plecher speeds, and then he does a 50 second 4f work the Sunday before the Derby presumably due to mud at Palm Meadows.  Likely needs to do something significantly more this week.  Will be interesting to see how this talented horse performs off of that light a final work.

Nice vids on T. Times yest. of most of the field galloping.  I compared the gallops.  Eliminate as non-competitive--Triniberg, Alpha, El Padrino, Liason, Rousing Sermon, Optimizer who appear to lack the goods in terms of natural talent, and Take Charge Indy due to the training.  This narrows the field to 13.  I am going to also eliminate the most talented horse with a strong caveat--talent can out in the Derby regardless.  I remember Barbaro.  Union Rags who I've watched on several occasions maybe--possibly--lacks natural competitiveness.  They have probably trained a little better than what shows.  Somehow--and I am unsure of this--UR just fails to look as if he's about to run the race off his life, and so I am eliminating Union Rags from my board also.  Even if he puts in a big run, I see UR getting nipped near the wire. Did they need to breeze and gallop this horse in company to make him competitive???

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Wed. Derby

Plecher's horses off the van.  The usual stall bunnies.  One wonders how Plecher ever wins a race--until we look at the competition.  Cascading close to rant.  Stifle.

Closer look at I'll Have Another--here's the handicapping scoop:

http://www.drf.com/horse/ill-have-another

This horse looks to be a larger slightly longer backed Rolling Rod.  Strength and size (Arch broodmares) is identical.

The "experts" r going to pass. Lol.  Now, let's be clear, can u 2 min gallop a horse every day and do anything except create an injury or developing injury?  By my experience unable to get away with this, and we leave it to the likes of Doug O'Neil, who I'd guess has absolutely zero experience with this sort of worker.  I am other than into vilifying O'Neil as with regard to his normal methods he's in plentiful company.  We do have to observe this trainer has the highest injury rate of any trainer I looked at, and so, in the vid above, the injury concern is legit, although the flashes show a sound horse at this point.  We also factor this in with Arch broodmare horses, of which I have a little experience, if there are any legs to stand this sort of workout, the Arch would be it.  Comparing all my horses I'd say Rodney's legs are at least 30% more stout than my next stoutest horse, whoever that was.

If the horse goes sound into the race, I'd say watch out.  You pay attention to that thus far low Beyer except you see IHA win his races without being pushed.  That horse is capable of an explosion due to his build--take it on good word--he's likely highly competitive as Rodney developed, and he's likely the fittest horse in the race.  Interesting work and race tab for an O'Neill trainee here:

http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09012692

and so, in addition to likely being the fittest horse in the race (we'll see what O'Neil does Wed to Derby), IHA is the strongest, and inmo most likely (from what I have looked at so far) the one to run down the "perfectly handled" Bodemeister.

In other news--Union Rags today with a tongue tie for the first time.  Bled in his work possibly or showed another type of breathing problem that the tongue would be designed to correct. Only possible reason to intro that equipment at this time as horses initially fight the tie.

The Hollendorfer horse shows usual Hollendorfer training, that is/was (they're catching up) superior to most, and likely also the typical Hollendorfer obliviousness. Avoid.

We cross off the entire contingent from Florida for many reasons, and also note that their trainers chose to avoid training Fri. to Thurs., good grief.

Have yet to look at the Asmussen horses.  Better do that.  Lukas's Optimizer looks like a splendid horse at the glance.  Why is Lukas unable to compete these days?  I can only surmise that 1980s-90s training fails to cut it these days.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

More Derby

Yet to see any Derby vids. Almost zero work vids. Vids of U. Rags and Creative Cause bathing, however. Where's Lenny Schulman this morning?  Overslept, possibly? Nice review as usual by Haskins.

The blogger still avoiding any handicapping work.  Publish a few brief impressions.  The vid of Creative Cause shows both questionable husbandry and questionable training.  Fairly usual the last two decades to see the latter.  Questionable husbandry I rarely have seen in a Derby horse.  Creative Cause is off the board.  I have some fairly strong fear of those white legs on Union Rags.  Talent a lot of time trumps training in the Derby.  UR a definite contender on appearance and also that last work.

Anybody stand out?  Bodemeister, I am just getting this feeling that in addition to being a grossly over bet favorite that somebody is going to run that horse down.  Intuition mostly.  Listened to the Zyat vid this morn (the owner) and he related--fastest horse, best pedigree, best training, best trainer. All well and good.  My take was always--the best for the horse, rider, trainer, vet, farrier--then we can blame the performance on the horse.

Who will run him down?  As noted, I've paid little attention this year. However, when u've been training as long as I have there's some significant pattern recognition and generally I can spot a horse sitting on a big race a mile away on about a 5 second clip, which, given the great coverage this year, is about what we get.  Jill Byrne's April 30 summary has a flash of I'll Have Another Galloping.  One brief view and it comes together.  The horse runs away every gallop similar to my own Groovin' Wind as a youngster.  They get enormously fit that way the problem being it's also dangerous and can break the horse down.  Too bad as to who is the trainer.  However, there's hardly a law that a trainer is unable to change his stripes.  From what shows I'll Have Another has a very decent training job, looks the part, gallops the part, and hey, I know about those horses with the Arch broodmare sires.  Think such famous horses as and Rollin Rodney and Uncle Mo.  I have a little idea of what those sorts do eyeball to eyeball.  That's ur Bodemeister upset candidate from what I see to date.

check out 4/30 vid:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/videos