Physiology Of Frequency: Intro

In 22 years of owing racing TBs I've seen lots of workout patterns. Here are a few.

1. Ivers, every 4 days.
2. Burch/Hirsch/Fitzimmons: every 3 days.
3. Pletcher: every 7 days with 2-3 weeks without speedwork after a race.
4. Nafzger with Street Sense: every 5 or 6 days.
5. QH Leading Trainer Ceasar Dominguez is quoted in Ross Staaden's book: how often do you breeze QHs--every 10 days. How often your TBs. Every 5 days--that's a QH trainer, lol.
6. Frankel used to religiously breeze 4f every 7 days. I notice these days a Frankel horse gets anywhere from 4--6F every 7 days.
7. D.W. (I never work horses) Lukas: 8-9 days.
8. Richard ("everybody knows what I do") Dutrow Jr.--every 6 days with 2 weeks off speed post race.
9. The trainer websites I looked at generally show breeze/races from 7 to 10 days or more. None of those trainers hardly every breezes more frequently than 7 days though you see an occasional 5 day out from the race.
10. And, there's your's truly, of course. I've never since the inception did speed work any less frequently than 3 or 4 days for months on end except for unusual reasons.

Through all this I've done a lot of reading, have developed a few theories, but must say that I've yet to see any study or any work including that of Tom Ivers explain what's going on here and what the ideal frequency or minimum frequency might be in terms of exercise physiology. Nor have I personally previously looked at this very closely as I've always been enmeshed in my little methods for the various reasons.

And so, on the blog I now propose to look at the physiology of frequency. Since we're without studies to my knowledge, there'll be lots of guess work, but there is in any scientific endeavor. My qualifications to write on this--I've taken a college exercise physiology course (U of Mo-Columbia Dept. of Physical Education 1975--Dr. John Roberts--the Mizzou sweat shirt in the photo above is pure coincidence!) I kept the text book for years and years. Believe I've read most of the training stuff available for horses. And the eyeballs, of course, direct experience.

So, I can speculate on the basics. Hopefully, if egregious errors appear on the planned posts, someone will correct them.

In starting on this, note that's I'm without preconceived notions. I think I understand what's desirable in terms of performance. But, considering frequency in terms of injury is a different animal. I've yet consider seriously finding that minimum point in terms of frequency that we must have for race appropriate fracture resistance. Initial questions, next post.

Training:
We were able to train in through the month of January. Who'd have thought. Only 4 days off due to weather for the whole month. That's big for us. We can still get wiped out by weather, but at this point we're in the ball game. Unless they change the forecast we'll be looking for a track to drive to by mid-Feb.
Thurs. 1/29: 1.25 miles walk-trot for each horse.
Fri. 1/30: Rod: 1.8 miles trot-gallop. 1/3 gallop. Art: .9 +.9 slow.
Sat: 1/31: Rod trot-galloped 2 miles. About 1/2 gallop. Best one to date says Nob. For the slow learner the light bulb switches to on. Art galloped 1 +1. The last one in 18s.

Friday Misc.

A few thoughts this Friday as I prepare my first post on the physiology of breeze/race frequency and fracture resistance.

Bill Pressey asked me to review an article he's written for North American Trainer Magazine that'll be published in May. Bill has made a few comments here. He's an exercise physiologist located in Louisville.

How'd he do? Google "The Frankeleyn" (Chaucer from the Franklin's Tale) and you get this, if I may borrow a few words from seven hundred years ago:

"In feith, Squier, thou has thee wel y-quit
And gentilly, I preise wel thy wit."

Bill's article concerns heart monitoring and it's benefits in equine exercise physiology. Equine heart rate monitoring goes back to early Ivers before Bill was even born. So it says a bit for me that Bill's article is the best I have read on this subject. Bill, possibly your piece will have some impact. It reminds us old fogies what is possible with exercise science. Sometimes we need to be reminded. Good work to the point I'm without any additional suggestions. Imo it's ready to go. Here's the NA Trainer Mag website:

http://www.trainermagazine.com/america/

The article comes out in May!

Day-Phillips, Mark Casse, and Bongo Racing Stable are now added to the 1/23 post.

Training:
Thurs. 1/29: Each horse walk-trotted 1.25 miles on hard ground.
Frid. 1/30: Rod trot-galloped 1.8 miles. About 1/3 gallop.
Art: Slow galloped .9 miles + .9 miles.

Breeze/Race Frequency: The Evidence

Pletcher and Linda Rice have been added to the 1/23 continuing post. After looking at the trainers I'm ready to get on with this, although I discovered Baffert's website today. He includes "entries/results" but omits the "workouts" which possibly are state secrets. Judging from Indian Blessing and Midnight Lute's published works going into the Breeder's Cup--we tossed them, unfortunately--Baffert definitely could be pegged as a conventional trainer, but one who has maybe a leg up on most of these in the sports I.Q. dept. I'm sorely tempted to add Baffert to the 1/23 list.

Again, for any new reader, the blog is attempting to determine what has to be done with a horse to achieve race appropriate fracture resistance. We've concluded we must do 4f at :12.5 speed minimally, and are now attempting to figure out how often this must be done in terms of minimums.

The circumstantial evidence we get from the trainer websites provides a significant indicator of those trainers' injury rate vis a vis what they are doing. After compilation (of the one's looked at) completes, some conclusions coming.

I want also look at "frequency" in terms of physiology. Unknown if any solid conclusions can be reached, but, willl give it a try. There also may be other evidence regarding frequency of which I've yet to consider.(Possibly Bill and his heart monitor!) Right now it's trainer stats then on to physiology, next post.

Training:
Mon: 1/26: 15 degrees. Riderless only. 4 miles snappy. Intermittent.
Tues: 1/27 Off
Wed. 1/28: 30 degrees at training time. We reversed the order doing our riderless work first as we wanted full energy on the powdery but now very nice surface. The horses were hepped so we decided on a fun workout. We let them play and fight for about 15 minutes with intermittent running. Got in several 1f, 2f and 3f full speed breezes. Rod was more into it today but toward the end he was flagging again. Shoed him later. There was some definite sole bruising showing which could explain the dropping out problem with Rod. Tack work consisted of 1 mile trot-walk for each horse. Ground too hard to gallop.

The Commute

For posterity--how much longer will we be in K.C.--the morning commute to the office.

1. Leaving the farm on Barry Road. Notice the snow. Last night Indy got 12 inches, we got a dusting. We've been lucky with the precip. of late.

2. Heading south toward the city.

3. There it is.

4. The Broadway Bridge spanning the Missouri River. Hope it holds.

5. The Missouri River with iceflows. Its been 1 degree to 20 degrees the last 4 days.

5. Heading into downtown. Notice the sun. We're a little behind schedule today.

Tues. Misc.

Today Hennig and Bruce Jackson added to the 1/23 summary, which I'll publish when completed. It's interesting. A few misc. observations for today:

1. Fairgrounds breakdowns: by the reports, guess it'll be a cold day in hell before anything other than the racing surface causes a breakdown.

2. Bill's comment. Bill took the trouble to type in an extensive comment on the 1/25 post. Txs!

4. Slow day galloping speed: Derby training videos show these trainers doing slow work in :18s to :20 even :22/f. Bill tacked a comment on to the 1/23 post that stakes horses get little out of :18s on slow days. While I'd disagree-- slightly--to me :18s are moving a bit(but then Bill with his heart monitor would be able to pin point it precisely, eh!)--the comment highlights my suspicions that in these large stables something is going on during slow days that's kept hidden. Reason: for myself, I am unable to explain these amazing performances--Lawyer Ron in the Woodward e.g. coming from 4-5f breezing once a week except by steroids.

5. Legends of Racing: Anxious to see how this turns out. Unwell, I'm thinking. Can Baffert make up for the other two.

6. Danger down the road: Ocean Downs Standardbred track in Maryland being closed by its own Casino.

7. RR just discovered North American Trainer magazine online!

8. NTRA: The Gathering The Wind blog nipping at the heels of Alex Waldrop. The natives are restless!

Training:
Mon: 1/26 in 15 degree weather we limit to riderless work on a powdery surface . I.e. we declined to take Nob up on his boast that he could ride down to 15 degrees, for today at leats. Powdery surface hard and bumpy underneath. The horses were driven an intermittent 4 miles snappy with some bursts. 3 year old drops out again. We're thinking: sore feet, airway passage problems, lazy. Yet to be determined.
Tues: 1/27: 15 degrees and wet. With good weather blowing in, we'll take this one off. Thus, being able to work yesterday--big. Difference between this year and last two--much less water!

Sunshine Millions Classic

Looking at this photo you can think 1967 Ky Derby and Proud Clarion, and also those two hard knocking, big, lanky, perfectly conformed Florida breds, Proud Birdie and Birdonthewire, as small breeders receive another heartwarming example of possibilities with the win of Edmund A. Gann's "It's A Bird" in yesterday's Sunshine Millions Classic. You'll notice the photo shows the horse with a resemblance to his immediate ancestors, and, yes, KY breeders, here it is--one more chance to preserve the line of Hail To Reason that you missed with the pop and grandpop.

The interesting pedigree of "It's A Bird":

http://www.bloodhorse.com/NOW/Pedigree/Default.aspx?referenceNumber=6880156

For a $3000 breeding to Birdonthewire, standing somewhere, we might have had the winner of the 2009 million dollar Sunshine Millions Classic. Unknown as to the accomplishment of the dam Faithful City.

And then, for you handicappers, who was the best trained horse in this race? Give the hint that the horse in the race who made highest number of breeze/races since 12/1/08 was also the winner of the race. "It's A Bird" had 8 breeze races since 12/1/08. The second largest number was 7 and several had that number. The winner also had a breeze in flat :12s five days out from race, and shows well spaced breeze/races since 12/1. How could they have overlooked this horse in the parimutuels? We'll take closer looks at this stuff when we get to performance. Sidenote: the horse is trained by Martin Wolfson instead of Plecher as Blood Horse wrongly indicates.

Here is the only photo I could find of Proud Clarion winning the '67 Derby.

With It's A Bird they've got yet one more chance at the Hail To Reason line. Any takers there in KY???

Training: Sun. 1/25 We're off for a 2nd planned day in a row in 19 degree weather.

Transportation

We're trying to get our horses to a track and this week some interesting transport issues.



But, what's this.: The new RR 2008 Ford F350 Super Duty with Ford's gasoline engine, 6.8L 3 valve Triton V10 in our KCMO office parking lot. I seem to be the only one working on Saturday. (left click on photo for better view.)

$24,000 laying around last April that might have been spent on a horse and I spent it on this truck, and am now, for the record, flat broke. The Ford Internet Build was $25,500, and then, boom, the salesman gives a $2500 rebate, making purchase $23,000.00. Paying sales tax total cost was $25,000. Ford's profit on this sale unknown, but probably interesting. Same truck 2009 costs $30,000+, before rebates.

So, we're ready to select one of these from the surprisingly few models available.

This one from the Cody Hitch website looks sturdy.

A few years back I'd nearly lost my trailer driving out of State Fair Park in Lincoln with 3 horses. The trailer as we were driving began swaying and the gooseneck ball was lose. Careful driving at about 5 mph got us luckily back to Linoln. The ball, on inspection, was screwed into the connection instead of welded in and the threads were breaking.

Back at Lincoln racetrack I asked some old timers if they'd ever heard anything like this. There were at least 3 or 4 stories remembered about gooseneck balls coming off, trailers lost and horses injured.

I'll order the Cody lock down hitch but probably get it welded in there as that Lincoln experience has stayed with me making the trailer hitch is a concern as we motor with our horses.

Doug O'Neill is now added to the 1/23/09 Continuing post.

Training:
Sat. 1/24: Off after yesterday's speed work. It's cold!

Training

A continuing post on Trainer Summaries appears after this post.
Wed: 1/21 Rod 2.25 miles tack work, trot-gallop and Art 1.5 miles with about a mile of gallop. The horses then did a riderless continuous mile breeze with the last 6f at max speed. Rod (pictured 1/19) showed some stuff this date.
Thursday, 1/22: rest.
Fri. 1/23 36 hours after the last work and with weather blowing in we recommence this morning. This workout was understandably flat due to insufficient rest. + half frozen ground stung 'em here and there.
Rod: 2.25 mile with1/2 trot-1/2 gallop. Improvment again, says Mr. Nob, but in half whiskers.
Art 1 mile of gallop in :18s and 1/2 mile trot.
The riderless work was planned as 1 mile continuous in :14 with some spurts depending on how they went. Rod failed to repeat his brilliant w/o of 36 hours ago and kept falling behind. I was so involved in keeping Rod going that I lost track of the other two horses, but everybody probably would up without about 3 miles of riderless work between intermittent sprints and warm up and warm down. Weather will put us into off days, and this was decent for 1/23.

Trainer Summaries(A continuing post)

The present subject here involves minimum training parameters for achievement of race appropriate fracture resistance. The following have been discussed:

1. Ideal warm up--2.5f + 1f + 1.5f increasing speed as fast as conditions allow.
2. Minimum necessary speed of 12.5 sec/f.
3. Minimum necessary distance: 4f.
4. Minimum breeze/race frequency: yet to be determined.

The blog has posted on various trainers since the beginning. A stat summary follows below and is in a state of construction which will take several days. I'll eventually rank the stats and also put in dates where the blog came up with the figures. A lot of this is educated guess work and I'd appreciate any comments on mistakes or additional info. Below appears the first part of the compilation. I'll get my computer back soon and clean this up a bit. Unable on this Pentium 4.

1. MM AVERAGE AMERICAN TRAINER: Middle of the Bell Curve:
Injury rate per year: Estimated at 65%, career ending (2/4/07 post).
2. MM PERFECT TRAINER: this one is coming to a theater near you soon.

3. RICHARD MANDELLA: Middle of the road conventional.
Speed: Mandella likes :12.5 though will vary.
Distance: Varies from 3f to 7f.
Frequency: Once a week with a 5-7 days off after races.
Last breeze to race: unknown but suspect more than 7 days.
Race to next speed work: unknown
Slow gallops: 4 days/week 1-1.5 miles
Race frequency: unknown
Races/horse/year: unknown
Injury rate: 5 out of 8 horses (62%)on the DVD were severely injured (2/24/07 post)

4. D.WAYNE LUKAS of the late 1980s (Unknown to me what Lukas does now.): Conventional high volume. Note frequent track work.
Speed: :12.5 to :13s.
Distance: 3-6f (Lukas distance work tends to be appropriate)
Frequency: 8-10 days.
Last breeze to race: 3-5 days
Race to next speed work: 10 days
Slow gallops: Unique. Lukas horses see the track 18-22 times per month for Trot, gallop or breeze. Slow gallops average 1.5 miles in :18s.
Race frequency: Twice a month.
Races/horse/year average: unknwon
Injury rate per year: According to Ross Staaden "average". According to me about 43%/yr(post 12/28/06).

5. DOUG O'NEILL: Pletcher copycat without the results. Inconsistent w/o patterns.
Speed: 12.5s with occasional 12s.
Distance: 4-5f with rare 6f or 3f.
Frequency: 2.88/mo. average.
Last breeze to race: 7 days, sometimes longer.
Race to next speed work: 2 weeks.
Slow gallops: estimated: every other day 1.25 -1.5 miles.
Injury rate: 75%/year and 50% every 3 months. The permanent injury rate in this stable is high.

6. BRUCE JACKSON: conventional, likely haphazard, ill conceived.
Speed: 12.25 type work.
Distance: 4-5f
Frequency: 3/mo. average.
Last breeze to race: 7 to 14 days. Highly inconsistent horse to horse and race to race.
Race to next speed work: 12-20 days.
Slow gallops: unknown. Results indicate light off day galloping.
Race frequency: unknown
Average No. of races/horse/year: 4.55
Injury rate: 50%/yr.


7. MARK HENNIG: Long term consistency, cookie cutter approach.
Speed: 12.25/f
Distance: 4f and occasional 5f.
Frequency: 2.98/breeze/race/month.
Last breeze to race: 9 to 12 days out. Occasionally less.
Race to next speed work: 12-14 days.
Slow gallops: probably every other day.
Race frequency: Religously once a month.
Injury rate: 57%/yr.

8. TODD PLETCHER: Conventional middle of the road. Consistent, intelligent patterns.
Speed: 12.25
Distance: 5f (estimate)
Frequency: 3 breeze/race/month
Last breeze to race: 7 days.
Race to next speed work: 3 weeks.
Slow gallops: unknown. Some claim daily 1.5 miles except rest days.
Race frequency: inconsistent. Targets races and adjusts breezes accordingly.
Races/horse/year average: 5
Injury rate: 50% per year, at least. Two large samples show Pletcher injures 50% every three months and possibly higher than that per year.

9. LINDA RICE: Middle of the road conventional, a bit inconsistent.
Speed: 12.25
Distance 4f
Frequency: 3.25/mo.
Last breeze to race--there's very little breezing after racing commences.
Slow day galloping: unknown. Her horses look decently conditioned in their photos.
Race frequency: Russian Prospector raced 4 times in August but 2 races/month appears average.
Race to next speed work: frequently, no speed work between races.
Races/horse/year average: undetermined.
Injury rate: 69%

10. BONGO RACING STABLE, A Syndicate: Very consistent, cookie cutter approach.
Speed: :12 to :12.5
Distance: 5-6f.
Frequency: 3.4/month.
Last breeze to race: 8-9 days.
Slow day gallops: estimated every other day 1-1.5 miles.
Race frequency: 1/month.
Race to next speed work: 2 weeks.
Races/horse/year average: 5.2
Injury rate: 50%/ yr.

11. MARK CASSE:
Injury rate: 55%

12. CATHERINE DAY PHILLIPS: Solid, unspectacular training. Overall very consistent Pletcher like trainer.
Speed: :12-12.25
Distance:4-5f
Frequency: 3.54
Last breeze to race: mostly 7 days. Sometimes 8.
Race to next speed work: 2 weeks.
Slow day gallops: unknown--fat horses. probably the usual 1-1.5 m every other day.
Race frequency: once a month
Races/horse/year average: 5.4
Injury rate: 35%

13. READE BAKER:
Training: unknown
Injury rate: 65%

14. KIARIN MCGLAUGHLIN:
Training: Unknown but probably Lukas light.
Injury rate: 55%

15. Joan Scott:

Injury rate: probably around 55%. Small sample.

3.25 breeze/race/month stable.

Trainers: A Group Evaluation

It appears I've run out of time again today. It's 10:28 p.m. and I've sworn a six mile run before bed. So, I'll leave this post unfinished, and hopefully continue tomorrow. Hint: the photo above was not taken at the latest meeting of our local HBPA (although it might have been.)

Training:
Tues. 1/20: Off.
Wed. 1/21: Wow and wow. More to leave us smiling. Interesting how these develop.

This one started routinely. Rod trot-galloping 2.25 miles, with Nob noting "improvement". Art in his gallop bolted from a deer herd a mile in and we almost lost our rider. Riderless work was planned as a continuous slow mile with warm up and warm down. Then the excitement started as the horses simply took off. Probably 2f in :14s, and the last 6f all out. We've been waiting a year for Rod, the 3 yr. old, to show us something, and tonight was the night. Instead of dropping out when challenged, he continued his thing that began 1/18 of merely speeding up and staying ahead of the horse. That was nice. But, what blew us away was that this (formerly) lazy youngster proceeded to sprint all out for the entire 6f, and flashed what looked to us some real sprinting speed that made our day.

More Training:

$6,100.00 worth of horseflesh at left. I'm short on time today and so, just post the training. Amart, the 4 yr. old is in the foreground with Rollin'Rodney facing the house. Cat lovers will notice the cat, age 19, sitting on the porch waiting to be fed.

Training:

Fri. 1/16 Rest.
Sat. 1/17: 3 miles intermittent riderless play + 1 mile walk-trot under tack.

Sun. 1/18 Tack: Rod 1.8 miles walk-trot-gallop. Art-.9 mile gallop. Both horses did 2 miles riderless continuous gallop in :17s-:18s.

Mon. 1/19: 30 degrees at training time. Every day of galloping in January is big in these parts. Rod: trot-gallop 2 miles, slight improve from yesterday. Art: 1.25 miles gallop(:19s). The riderless volume right now is 3 miles with warm up and warm down with 2 miles continuous in the middle. Second mile they began to pick up tempo and last 4f turned into all out breeze with Rod, age 3, significantly for the first time speeding up instead of dropping out when challenged. Art tried to catch him and was unable. Trainer left smiling over Rod's stuff today.

This was our farm Friday 1/16, and below shows today at 50 degrees for which we're grateful. It's mid-January. The snow outlines our track quite well, and there are some horses in there. Summarizing these trainer stats is taking some time. I'll try to start Monday, and will also take further note of Square Eddie, The Pamplemousse, and also Bill's comments re those racing horses in Ky two posts ago.

Training:
Sat. 1/17: after 4 weather days off, riderless play three miles intermittent with rests and some fast stuff. Enthusiasm. Each horse then walk-trot a mile tack.
Sun. 1/18: Stretching out Rod under tack till he learns his stuff. 1.8 miles for him today trot-walk-gallop and he was all over the place. Art's gallop aborted after .9 miles as Nob reports the slightly sprung right rear shoe giving trouble. Both horses went riderless about 3 miles with 2 miles of it continuous snappy slow gallop.

"I Can't Pick Against Square Eddie"

Jason Shandler and his famous last words regarding today's San Rafael Stakes from "That Handicapping Show" on Bloodhorse.com. Might we be so bold to declare, having examined the website of SE trainer Doug O'Neill as well as recalling the performance of other O'Neill Derby prospects as Azul Leon, and the Reddam owned 2007 triumvirate of Great Hunter, Notional, and Liquidity, that indeed we "can" pick against SE (appearing second in the photo to Midshipman), and that picking against an O'Neill/Reddam horse here seems logical.

The real drama of the San Rafael to me will be how long Paul Reddam will stick around in the Doug O'Neill barn. Based on past performance I've wondered whether Reddam has unbelievable patience or whether he's just dumb. I'll avoid taking a position on that and simply believe that, barring O'Neill significantly changing his training colors, a Reddam split with O'neill is on the horizon with the 2009 San Rafael intriguingly and possibly the proverbial final straw.

SE could of course run to his class and experience. Could happen. But, I'll stick out my neck a bit a forecast that another horse will run down SE. Our good handicappers might want to look closely at that Whittingham type trainer in here named Stute. Though Frankel's horses always are dangerous, seems to me that Papa Clem sits here as a very live long shot.

San Rafael free PPs are embedded in this post:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2009/01/16/analysis-of-the-san-rafael-stales.aspx

Training:

Tues 1/13 to Fri. 1/16 4 days off due to sub-zero weather. It snowed Friday. We decline to gallop them over the snow-hard ground combo.

What Do Trainer Stats Tell Us?

Horses, at left in 11 degree weather without the foot of snow we had a year ago. The insurance after a long dispute finally replaced the SCH-u900 Samsung 3.2 megapixel camera phone lost in the pasture somewhere and then found. and inoperable. Failed to report my loss within 30 days as the fine print requires since I thought the phone would turn up somewhere. And so, after much haggling, they caved. Lol. Now if I can figure how to post the video we'll have some training clips on here soon.


Then, another great post at Not To The Swift, as John observes that it seems it would be nice were everyone in horse racing Jesus Christ. Maybe the blogs go too far in finding fault with almost everyone. Unless, as I consider, you have a horse go down, in which case you become eligible for awards.

But, I digress. Time to summarize my trainer stats. Looking at these websites I tried to ferret the following info:

1. How does the trainer train in terms of breeze/race/frequency?

2. What percentage of the trainer's horses suffer injuries during the year?

Such info would provide additional evidence for the present blog focus of determining frequency of fast works required to develop race appropriate fracture resistance. Time to summarize, collate and conclude.

Bill, txs for your comment last post. You're ahead of me on this. I'll come back to the question you posed, which is interesting.

Since before the election I've taken hopefully large enough horse samples from the following:

Bruce Johnson

Reade Baker

Kiaran McGlaughlin

Mark Hennig

Catherine Day Phillips

Gary Contessa

Mark Case

Bong Stables

Joan Scott

Linda Rice

Todd Pletcher

Doug O'Neil

Next post, a training summary for this group of breeze/race frequency per month and injury/year percentages for each. Then, hopefully some conclusions.

Training:

Thurs. 1/15 Temps around 11 degrees or 20 degrees hotter than Indy tonight. When you get out in it, it's less bad than you expect. We could have thrown Nob on today, but I was mentally into a day off getting there, due to the cold, and we did. Looks like great January training weather coming. So, 3 days off here, and Friday back at it.

Bruce Jackson Summary

The last RR post looking at trainers regarding injury prevention. A bit dry perhaps except when you consider, speaking for myself, that for 20 years I've watched race track trainers presuming and guessing as to what's going on. Now, with the internet and these websites, there's some support for the opinions, and hopefully some help for our own horses.

I'll try to pull all this together and then on to some physiology regards breezing frequency. But first, to conclude Bruce Jackson racing, the website lists 88 horses on his entries/results page, seemingly quite enough for one trainer, but more than 200 under workouts.

I checked alphabetically all horses, "a" through "e", on the workout page. Only 7 showed works supporting that Jackson deals with a lot of youngsters or he's just sloppy in keeping this up. I suspect he has a lot of youngsters.

But, this makes 10 or 11 Jackson horses that I looked at closely, and I can say that Jackson's program involves a lot of every 7 day breezing in preparation for racing with all sorts of inexplicable gaps. And during racing and especially as the year progresses they back off the breeze work dramatically. I saw Jackson horses during racing do as little as 2 breeze/race/month. 3.5 was about the max. Most of them were around 3/month.

Jackson's pattern is what we've seen from the east coast Zito types--race, then two weeks off, then, maybe/maybe not commencement of 7 to 12 day breezing prior to the next race.

I get general impressions and feelings in looking at this data closely, which may be highly accurate or otherwise. As long as I've been around, little things provide significant clues. My impression of Jackson's training was that it is more hit and miss, and less soundly conceived than several of the other trainers I looked at. This feeling is more general impression than specifics caused partly in there seemed less rhyme and reason or logic in what Jackson does once racing commences. Thus, his advertised tailoring of programs bespeaks more to me of questionable inconsistency to the seeming detriment of several of his horses.

You could suppose, being at Fairhill, that Jackson does lots of beneficial slow galloping and non-recorded work, except that his record and results bely that he does anything of the sort. Rather, my (very unscientific) suspicion here is that Jackson never has been an athlete himself and lacks the feel that I'd prefer to see in a logical program. I hope this is other than unfair. I'd like to get Jackson's reaction to this as I'm convinced that he and his wife do a lot of work, and probably might explain what they do to my satisfication. But, absent that, I'm forced to rely on info that's available.

My real interest in Jackson, as the others, is what his program, so similar to several others looked at, does in terms of injury prevention. I'll try to put this together the next few posts.

Training:

1/14: I almost tested Nob's prior boast that he could gallop in 15 degrees, but, with the temps going down, 0ur 3 year old possibly needing a mental break, we opted for day off #2.

Training

Computer problems. We'll be back soon.



Training:
Sat. 1/10 Rest
Sun 1/11 Art galloped 1.25 miles at about :18 pace.
Rod did what passes for him at this point 1.25 mile gallop and did 2 miles of riderless tack work slow.
Mon: 1/12: Speed day. 1.25 mile more trouble gallop with Rod, and 1 mile gallop for Art some in:16s. Riderless speed work interrupted as for second day in a row the 3 year old pulls himself out of the proceedings repeatedly getting lapped. "Refuser" concerns with Rod. Speed work very unevent over about 2.5 miles but several full speed bursts over powdery ground.
Tues. 1/13: Cold coming. Rest.

Setonwinnen

Setonwinnen is another of Bruce Jackson's many 2008 maidens but distringuishes himself by managing to make it through the year, and finally winning, though that was mostly accomplished on turf. He should be a good e.g. of Bruce Jackson training in terms of scheduling speed work. Setonwinnen appears on the scene 2/23 and is last seen 12/31. He has 27 breezes and 7 races for 3.4 breeze/race per month. That's significant contrast to stakes performer Starvinsky from last post who avaraged 2.66 breeze/race/month, and possibly shows Jackson tailoring his program.



Setonwinnen

the first race will be 5/2. we start out with a nice breezing progression:

2/23 37.3

3/1 37.1 7 days

3/8 50.2 7 days

3/15 50 7 days

3/22 1:01 7 days

3/29 :49 7 days--back off in distance, for some reason.

4/5 1:02 7 days

4/19 :37 12 days--injury, swelling possibly. I'm unable to figure.

4/26 :50.1 7 days, but now 21 days since going 5f.

5/2 RACE the race is the first time the horse gets a 6 day gap between works. do they pay attention to these little details? But, seems a decent work tab. Would you guess this horse can go 5f in :12.25s. Let's see what he does:
4th in maiden claimer at Pimlico. no time given. Looks to me as if the horse ran to his training.
What now?

5/17 :49 they wait 15 days. Were have we seen this?
5/31 1:00.1 14 more days. We now have 2 breezes in 29 days. Did he retain his fitness through this?
6/17 RACE 17 days entered in 1 mile maiden claimer at Delaware where he finishes 3rd. What I notice is that Jackson has completely stopped on the nice progression he had with this horse a couple of months ago.
6/28 :52 11 days
7/4 :52 6 days
7/8 RACE 4 days later. Those breezes really set him up, eh? Finishes 6th in 1 1/16 maiden claimer at Delaware. RR is getting a little pissed here. I can imagine the owner.
7/26 1:00.4 18 days this time, and we go right into 5f in :12s. If he'd only race that fast.
8/4 :50.4 9 days later and he's back to slow 4fs. about 2 workouts in last month now.
8/9 1:03 5 days. owner must have called to complain.
8/23 :50 14 days later.
8/30 1:02 7 days
9/5 :50.1 6 days
9/20 1:02 they wait another 15 days, then
9/24 RACE 2nd in 1 1/16 maiden claimer at Delaware.
Now what? I'd be anxious to get him back in.
10/11 :50 17 days
10/18 1:01.2 6 days. every time i see one of these 5f works now I'm thinking they're ready to enter.Kudos on the 5f breezing. phewee on the spacing.
10/25 :50. 7 days. they back off.
11/8 1:02 13 days
11/12: RACE. aND 4 days later he wins. Oh my! 1 16th maiden claimer at Philly.
Connections excited. What do they do now?
12/4 :50 They wait 22 days, of course.
12/13 :52 9 days
12.31 51 18 days

There you have it. If you followed this progression closely you see why owners get gray hairs. Still going though. Kudos for that.

Training:
Sat. 1/10 Warmer than expected. We could have gone weather wise, but had to rest 'em after yesterday's elongated fast works.

Bruce Jackson Continued

Last posted I assigned Bruce Jackson, training at Fair Hills and racing at venues such as Philadelphia Park, Laurel and Delaware, a 50% survival rate for his raceable stock for 2008. As you look closer at the Bruce Jackson Racing website you see predominantly two year olds and maidens. Most of the few older horses quickly fall off the map for whatever reasons, and but a small number of horses get in any significant racing. Possibly a transition year for Jackson, stable turnover, or whatever.

I skimmed the training of several Jackson horses unable to see the tailoring bragged of on the website. Looks pretty cookbook consistent to me, horse to horse, but, I just skimmed. Additionally, who knows what Jackson does on slow days. They're at Fairhill and might do unrecorded speed work. But, you have to observe that their results are inconsistent with slow day speed work, and that we're probably seeing in terms of performance exactly what the website shows, which is "not much".

I looked closely at 3 Jackson racers and decided to leave it at that. If you look at the three you'll have a pretty good idea of the training in this stable.
'
Starvinsky:
A stakes performer. Can we assume S get's a lot of personal attention fromthe trainer? As the year progresses this horse goes downhill.
3/15 3f :36.4
3/22 4f :50 7 days since last
4/1 4f :48 10 days
4/8 5f 1:00 7 days
4/19 4f :49.4 11 days
Consistently inconsistent in their workouts while showing a nice progression up the time/distance ladder. Jackson's horses seem to do their breezes in near :12s, which I'd think would be a plus for performance and injury prevention.
4/26 RACE Stake 1 mile finishes 7th. Little in the prior training to prepare for this race.
5/10 5f 1:00 they wait 16 days and launch right into a fast 5f. Nonsense except again unknown what's they've done on slow days.
5/26 RACE Stake 1 mile 3rd. One workout in a month and he improves. Good for the horse!
and, its on turf.
6/7 5f 1:01 11 days this time.
6/14 4f :49.3 7 days
6/21 RACE Stake 1 1/16 mile 4th on turf. Holding his own so far with what I'd call highly questionable race specific training. But, open mind, as we proceed...
7/3 RACE Allowance 1 1/16 turf, finishes 6th. 12 days after the last race. He survives.
8/2 3f :35.4 they wait 30 days then 8 days to
8/10 RACE 5f Allowance on turf. Sprinter now, and he manages a 2nd.
8/26 3f :36 16 days
9/1 RACE Stake, 5f turf. Last breeze was 5 days out. finishes 4th.
9/20 3f :35 19 days.
10/4 RACE Stake 5.5f turf finishes 7th. ONE breeze in 33 days. But, S still with us.
10/24 RACE 7f Stake turf finishes 8th. 20 days since last, and now 4 fast works in 54 days.
11/1 RACE 5.5f claiming, turf, finishes 9th. The seven days since last race does nothing for this unfit animal.
The stable races to December 20, but this one is through.

Starvinsky Breeze/Races every 11.5 days for the year(2.66 breeze/race per month). You'd guess they're doing some speed work on the off days, except that the performance is right up to what we see on paper. S makes it through the year, but perhaps we start to see why he has very little such company in this stable.

Two more Jacksons next post followed by a summary of what has been learned from the trainer websites, and thereafter on to some physiology in term of breeze/race frequency.

Training:
Thurs. 1/8 Rest
Fri. 1/9 with cold north wind blowing in after a 60 degree day we decide on more speed work two days after last and then rest in the cold on Saturday. Art does another strong (:19s spurting to :17s) 1.25 gallop. Rod does 1.25 but screws around the whole way. This horse is difficult under tack so far--a head thrower and sky gazer, but inexperienced yet. Both horses then did riderless speed work, probably 1.25 miles continuous in full speed spurts. Nice workout for the 4 yr. old while the 3 yr. old also screws up his speed work. Decent looking forecast for deep winter. If we can avoid precip, we're in business.

Bruce Jackson

In search of a trainer for your $3000/month training bill? How about this from Bruce Jackson's Website at

http://www.brucejacksonracing.com/trainers/bjackson/


"...My wife Amy is my chief assistant and in addition, oversees the breaking and early handling of the yearlings and young horses. Together we decided to focus on a smaller operation where nutrition, exercise, health and racing programs could be tailored for each individual horse.
We would not just train one way, but would let each horse rise to its full potential on its own program."


Sounds good! Although, positive statements negatively stated as in "We would NOT just train one way..." run counter to casting things positively, but, I quibble. Does the Jackson operation deserve glowing description?



Jackson shows 88 horses. 18 of the 88 Jackson horses raced 6/1/08 to 10/7/08. That's 18 during 4 months of prime racing season or 20% of the stable. For 2008 these 18 racers had 82 races or 4.55 races per horse. Very little to brag about so far.

How many of the 18 survived the year without injury: 6 or 33%. This gets more dismal yet. For your $3000 you'd rather have more than a 20% chance your horse will race less than 5 times and if they race a 33% chance of surviving the year?

Does Jackson deserve any slack, or will we hold him to his stats. I'm tempted to grant Jackson more slack than most. He trains at Fairhill and has to ship. This is always a pain and we'd guess they might pass on races they would enter if they were located at a track.

Moreover, as the above statement notes, there are a lot of developing youngsters in this stable, and several of the 18 racers were maidens or started out as such. We may imagine a careful trainer trying to tailor programs might hold some back some perfectly healthy horses for development purposes that a lesser trainer might enter in a race. In granting this stable slack we'll also say at any one time 10 to 15 horses will be out or have been moved for reasons other than injury.

If there are 30 yearlings and 2 yr. olds Jackson has 18 of 58 racing. We subtract about 15 more for non-injury reasons and that's 18 of 43. Count in all other factors and Jackson probably has 50% of his racing. Less than great, but, we've seen worse. I'll revise the survival rate after I look at the workouts. This and how Jackson trains, next post.

Training:

Tues. 1/6: Mile trot-gallop under tack for each + 1.5 miles continuous riderless snappy.
Wed. 1/7: A night when all goes well. Oh, if we only had 30 more days of this. 33 degrees, semi frozen ground, but we manage a nice 1.25 mile gallop for each horse and 3 x 3f riderless at near max speed with the 3yr. old (about whom we have some worries) extending himself a bit, finally.
Thurs. 1/8 Rest

Baker And McGlaughlin

A few more stats with your coffee. The blog looks at Kiaran McGlaughlin and Reade Baker.

Neither trainer shows "workouts" creating uncertainty as to training patterns. Yet, bet a large percent of your considerable estate that McGlaughlin trains "Lukas lite", with zero sum knowledge of athletics but great attention to detail. You will see, similar to Hennig, a lot of once a month racing on the website.

Reade Baker, who knows how he trains. For myself I refer to a photo of Baker's 2008 Derby prospect Bear Something Or Other which shows an underexercised, underfed stall baby of a horse, and also that everything I read concerning R. Baker is both unremarkable and a lot down right unimpressive. His stats confirm these notions.

The parameters: I skimmed all the Baker horses as only 117 are listed. McGlaughlin has untold hundreds. I looked at all McGlaughlin horses that raced in June and July 2008.

In looking at each horse I attempted from what shows to give every benefit of the doubt. E.g. if McGlaughlin has a horse that raced but twice last summer, won both and is foreign owned, I presumed it was pulled from McGlaughlin for overseas racing instead of injury. I gave several horses passes that quit racing in October which were probably/possibly rested, retired or moved.

Here they are:

Read Baker: Of the 117 only 22 had any significant number of races in 2008 although 15 of these show recent albeit brief careers. My calculation is that Baker had a 21.5% survival rate for the year from what showed, which I adjusted to 30-35% for the usual miscellaneous non-injury reasons.


McGlaughlin:

June 2008 horses: 26 raced which had a total of 70 races for 2008 which is 2.7 races per horse. There were only two apparent survivors (if you count Shakis after the BC) for 7% survival.

Peril of small sample. This is so god-awful unbelievable I decided to look at:

July: 37 raced 180 times in 2008 which is 4.86 races per horse(that's approaching an average of what we're seeing on all these websites). 11 survived or 30%.

Based on the greater number of horses in July, let's throw out June in looking at McGlaughlin. And, I'll give McGlaughlin more than the usual rope regarding miscellaneous reasons for horses quitting for the year due to his specific circumstances of training for a lot of foreign and persnickety owners. You have to also look at McGlaughlin's in the money percentage which appears to be superior in giving him some slack. The June stats haunt, but, I'd guess McGlaughlin gets a 40-45% survival rate for the year. I'm going to call it 45%.

Training:
Sat. 1/3 after layoff riderless 10 min. of play in the mud at speed
Sun. 1/4 5 x 2f pasture romping in :14s.
Mon: 1/5: Each horse trot-walks a mile.
Tues. 1/6: Each horse trot-galloped a mile ground still half frozen, then 1.5 miles continuous riderless gallop, snappy after warm up. 3 miles total.

Misc.

We're back. Indianapolis trip. And, just had two computers go down. Viruses. They assassinated my Norton 360 Security Suite and that was all she wrote. Bad feeling this is going to cost $$$. I'm on the laptop, fingers crossed.

Txs. for comments. I wrote my views on the slaughter issue about June 15th, 2008 posts. The only thing that's changed for me is seeing what everybody knew would happen, happen. For the specific commenters, if you're on here, you're required to analyze to the point that you care what happens to the unwanted horse. If you take that far enough, believe you'll figure out who the morons are.

Bill--txs for the info. Circular Quay and several other Pletchers never galloped out a lick in their Derby breezes-- keep an eye on for this year's derby though, assuming Todster has entries.

Training:
12/29 riderless fast in the mud.
12/30 slow pasture romping, ground crunchy.
12/31 Off. Trip.
1/1 Trip
1/2 Trip
1/3 60 degree weather--riderless fast play without being driven.
1/4 18 degrees. Decided -- riderless pasture work, and, to our approval, they decided to run hard--5 x 2f mostly in :14s. Two straight days of speed work and we're back to training. Weather improves for a couple of weeks. Can we get back to galloping?

2009

Given the accuracy of my forcast (or lack thereof) on the presidential election and other things on my 1/1/08 post, for 2009 I'll stick to wishing everyone a happy and prosperous New Year. The horses are a year older, hopefully faster, and all the stables will have a good year. Best to everyone from this blog!