Always Better Too Slow--D.W. Lukas

That's all I got out of the Derby notes this morning--Lukas explaining the painful  looking breeze by Will Take Charge  in 1:01+--always better too slow than too fast.  This is after the horse did a mile in about :13s a week ago.   Can u be competitive in the KY Derby training in :13s?  Doubtful.  Will Take Charge gallops like  he's got a problem.  I noticed a slight stumble changing to left lead on Clubhouse Turn.  Scratch.

Otherwise Derby coverage seems even more miserable than last year--at least what  I've found, and, am other than scrounging for it.  Almost zero vids except a few at DRF, Barn notes mostly omit distances and descriptions of the gallops, although, reading them, you get the impression that we have a bunch of out to lunch trainers this year.  One horse--forgot  which--breezed slow Fri.,  Sat. and Sun off and galloped 6f Mon. Morn.  When I read the barn  notes and the most  impressive trainers are Plecher and McPeek--something has got to give.

Although---as had been noted by Bill Pressey--watching Plecher's horses breeze, indeed, and unllike  former years,  they now appear to be breezing 7 f at least with their gallop outs, and gone apparently are the Plecher days when the breezes went 1:01 and slower.  Light bulb turns on for Plecher,  possibly?  And so, when Plecher  walks Verrazano for two days after the Sat. breeze (instead of one as I would), we here at RR currently give Plecher benefit of doubt.

I am looking at Derby only peripherally.  Maybe there will be some actual coverage as the week goes.

Training:  On the home front we continue to work with #17 under tack.  Our  galloping terrain is difficult, though I think we'll  finally get steps of gallop by end of week.  Horse has suddenly shot up to 15-3.5".  This is big.  That extra half hand means so much in terms of size and scope and weight  carrying ability.

Gallops

What are we supposed to be looking at?  Link below: Verrazano/Palice Malice at Churchill likely good only till they kill the post.

Unknown to me what to look at.  I tend to go by the know it when u see it, although I can point to some things.  Coordination, reach with front legs, strength and more.  Most of these stakes horses have all this.  What separates them?  I saw little to date to separate any of them. Verrazano has major league hind end and looks good when he really gets going.  The standout galloper I've seen is Orb.  Classic big floats over track stride and looks to be light weight enough to keep it going.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-revolutionary-continues-impress

Training:  Record cold spring and hence, Mr. Nob weather strike, seems over.  #17 has been tacked last few days with a few riderless short speed. #148 hock coming along well.

Thurs. Misc.

One last time for the image of Storm Cat, grandpa to #148. Hopefully we'll get some vids of Derby horses galloping at Churchill.  In KC we had a freeze warning 4/23 and 29 degrees F morning of 4/24.  Warming up now. Winter behind us.  Nob's weather strike hopefully over. Nob was on #17 last eve. Horse has done enough riderless work through three weeks of weather so bad will avoid describing that he's still reasonably fit. Presumably with spring finally here we can get this show on the road.

Mon. Misc.

Albert Stall trained Departing impressively wins Illinois Derby off one 4f work in :47 since March 30.

And so, Departing shows once again that horses can(and sometimes do) perform well off of one fast 4f breeze in 20 days, although we need take note that the horse March 1 to April 19--50 days--had two races and three 4f works total or some speed work every 10 days.  Traditional east coast stuff. Significantly 4 of these 5 speed works were fairly fast.

Connections decision to skip the Derby seems puzzling except that's the way these people think.  They believe, possibly, horse needs a break, whereas I'd think this talented horse, with a little bit more logical work schedule, would be perfectly set up for a max effort in two weeks.  Different stropes, and surely they know a lot more about the horse than yours truly. Occasionally we need thank the good lord there is such a thing as an incompetent trainer.

Our good news--#148 hock swelling suddenly mostly disappears.  Blogger has been in weather rebellion in terms of training.  Finally turn corner on weather 4/21, and first training session in a week.  Previous two weeks were mud combined with record breaking cold in KC.

Preliminary Derby Musings

Re watched Florida Derby won by Orb vs. It's My Lucky Day whose trainer Edward Plesa apparently at last moment realized his horse training for Florida Derby insufficient --as well as his prior statement that horse is fit and all we have to do is keep him happy--today breezes 1 mile in 1:43+ at Calder with another breeze planned before Derby--bringing up Q of what's getting into these fellows?

Orb appears the bigger more athletic animal, although, unlike many who have Orb picked for Derby personally I'd avoid getting carried away with a victory over an insufficiently trained colt with first six f going at slower than :12 fractions.  Orb--if I'm recalling correctly--was doing all this off 4f breezes which, logically, u'd think if the horse were pressed a bit off that kind of work Orb would fade like a blade of grass in our last year's drought.

Most impressive performance I've seen was put in by the magnificent horse in the photo at risk due to his weight on his white legs and his trainer.  Purely on breeding, power, proportion and a great stride Will Take Charge deserves serious consideration, I'd think.  Q whether DW Lukas can still train, and also whether the horse already has some problems since they avoid racing him since last win at Oaklawn.   Blinkers to me indicate they were having trouble of some kind with the horse at some point.  Horse of this size will carry weight so easily he'll be a threat. Hopefully they'll be some vids of WTC working at Churchill to allow some additional analysis.

Meanwhile 32 degrees F + mud in KCMO on morning of April 19. 

Thurs. Misc.

KC for last two weeks at left.  After last year's serious drought this has been tree saving precip.

Horse training in our falicity and this weather.  NADA.  Blogger lacks the gumption these days to fight through this stuff.  Every day the temps are 10 to 15 degrees less than the forecast.  They say high of 40,it gets up to 30. High of 60, its 48 with wind and rain. etc.

We've managed decent riderless speed gallops last three days.  Nob declines to get on in knee deep mud.  Nothing, really to be gained.  KC exit being planned.  Will see.

Akansas Derby

I took a glance at the two races.  Blogger presently distracted with work overload, and less attention available for horse racing.

Blue Grass appeared a bunch of horses prepped for 6f as one might imagine with the winner having connections to the two trainers that blogger is without any trouble of bad mouthing publicly---which would be McPeek, trainer of the winner and Zito, trainer of sire of the winner.  How McPeek ever wins anything is beyond me, although in this case looked to be a combo of nice pedigree (War Pass was such a talented horse-and good to see some progeny), an entire field that managed to stop for the late closer, and possibly and probably by accident a racing strategy that Zenyatta showed so many times is effective--with lack of warm ups and bursting out of the gate exhausting most field--and one hangs back who basically does his warm up out of the gate before he starts running--that works lot's of times against these present trainers.

Arkansas Derby looked the much nicer race on the vid to me.  All those horses were really running, and then the Plecher horse bursts out front.  If--as Bill Pressy comment indicated--Plecher now warms up his horses while the rest of the field does the traditional pony warm up--would that type of warm up by itself possibly explain Plecher's sudden resurgence?

Txs to Pressey for the lengthy comment.  Will address this further later since it brings up interesting points..
Can u look at Ark. Derby and fail to be a little enthused to get to training ur horses?  Can we get ours to run like that for a mile+. 

#17 was ridden mostly at trot for about 15 min. yest.  1st steps of gallop today possibly.  Surface on new field very problematical and we're therefore seriously entertaining thought of exiting KC June 1.

Blue Grass Day

and, Arkansas Derby day.  Every owner of a two year old in these parts is right now aiming for one of these two races.  For us chances get slimmer by the day, although might be nice to at least race on one of those days at one of those meets.

In category of blog it while it's on one's mind:  Just got back from the YMCA gym--6'4" black athlete comes in and opens up with about 20 pull ups.  Perfectly proportioned obviously elite type dude.  "Where did you play in college?"--such and such university (basketball).  "Where did you play in the pros?"  Never made it in pro ball.

Raising the Q with this fellow with physique, proportion, balance, obvious quickness and reaction time of an elite athlete yet falling inexplicably far short of that standard--what makes them "elite"?  This guy makes Los Angeles Clipper all NBA point guard Chris Paul look like a chump physically.

My thought is that at some point in perfect physical development, raising one's game to the top level involves a mental element--the discipline perhaps to improve one's game, work on one's weaknesses, perfect the skill set instead of stubbornly doing the same thing every day.  It was Tom Ivers who commented on the conventional trainer--they have 1 year of experience repeated 20 times.

This is Todd Plecher and almost all the conventional trainers.  You hear one of them--kiss of death to the horse--a month out from the Derby pronounce--he's fit--all we gotta do now is keep him happy.  Result generally is a happy as a lark horse who is far short of optimal performance on Derby day and an injury--hopefully other than catastrophic, waiting to happen.

Mystery to me why smart guys like Plecher fail to get it.

How do you get that optimal performance.  Imo--many different ways to peel the apple.  Was considering this morning concerning Wise Dan and his off day gallops where trainer notes the horse slow gallops in :14s and :13s--is there something to be said for racing about every 10 days and off day galloping in :14s with an occasional burst.  Avoid exceeding fracture limits, of course with appropriate rest.  Yours truly off to today's training.  Winter clothes around here all the way to 4/12.

Thurs. Misc.

With my horses and our situation wearing me out--taking 4+ hrs. a day to ride a horse 10 min--blogging has been a little thin lately.  The idea of getting these horses to the race track 350 miles away is crystallizing and accelerating, as are the necessary funds.  Week of rain and more winter in KC.  #17 was trained 3 days and yest. off.  Back on today in winter temps.  Should get a stride or two of gallop this week.

KY Derby--I always like Arkansas Derby/Blue Grass week.  Scant attention this year.  What I'm seeing so far--I like Will Take Charge and Golden Cents presuming that Plecher will screw up his two nice horses as always, and that the Midnite Lute horses likely need to be watched.

Tues. Misc.

KY Derby thoughts.  Wood and Santa Anita Derby PPs--scanning them continues to show all these trainers breezing by and large every 7 days 4 to 6f.  Interestingly the horses most prominent go the longest and fastest--see Goldencents, and there's still an east coast bias of doing less work on that coast.

Thus, I thought that Verazano with the slow Wood fractions looked like the questionable trained horse. If Plecher trains as of old we know this training is insufficient for fracture resistance.  Whenever I see a Plecher Derby horse I worry that this may be the year of the inevitable catastrophic Derby break down.

And, there's Baffert and his Flashback.  Before news of the knee chip  I'd noted  essentially that horse did two 4fs and one 6f in about 1.5 months, and then was asked to do what he did in the race.  Rarely get away with that unscathed.  Baffert knows better, though who knows what he may have been dealing with with the horse.

Interesting Derby what little attention I've paid.  Some good horses involved.

Training:  We're back at it after a discouraging week.  In the new field on Sun. Nob reported he felt good in saddle for the first time.  Horse trotted well. Rain Mon. Recommence today.  #148 hock improving.

Sat. Misc.

We're still here.  Decision made temporarily to avoid Oklahoma for now due to price of gas--$200+ for round trip as blogger still has office business in KC.  June 1 is new target date to commence track work.

Past week training wise -- mini-disaster.  What little there was of Blogger energy spent converting horses to a new field as we were removed from the nice hay field on April 1.

The new field has 1200 yards of barbed wire and would have my horses on one side and the Mexicans mares on the other--i.e. disaster with horses pawing each other through the wire.  Instead of spending scarce funds for new fence we came up with solution of combining all horses into a single field--brilliant, or so it seemed.

All goes totally awry when 18 yr, old gelding Groovin'Wind, testing his status as favorite horse, commenced to play stallion with the Mexican mares.  If you've seen stallion behavior around a band of mares, this does have a humorous aspect and good to see the old boy still has it in him--though as far as training #17, separating the six horses for feeding, training, etc. good grief!

On Day #1 of this I arrived and #17 was nowhere to be seen.  A one hr. search turned #17 up in the woods chased over the fence by his former buddy Groovin' Wind.  We get lucky for once--only a scrape on a knee.
 The situation in the field is so unruly we are unable even to get the horses to come to the feed buckets.  One group is on one side of the field avoiding being chased and bitten by Groovin' Wind who has his mares on the other side. Hopefully today will solve how to proceed with this unexpected development of unruly horses and situation and numerous problems involved with the new field.