Second Tier Trainees

Last Post, Tier #1:
Mr. Hot Stuff
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private

the very best training, each show exceptionally planned and executed speed events in their PPs. Their trainers produced, maintained, and in case of the first three improved them. Each probably coming on at the 8th pole.

Second Tier are a group of decently instead of exceptionally trained horses that show deficiencies:

Papa Clem
I Want Revenge
Friesan fire
Advice

1. Papa Clem is tied for 1st in number of works for the year, a slight second to Chocolate Candy in total speed furlongs and #1 recent speed work. He has a trainer you gotta love! Yet, there are red flags. PC is one you can watch slow day galloping 3/4 a mile on the wrong lead. Never changed nor did the jock make any attempt. That's nit picky though injury threatening, but indicative of deeper problems of planning, training and care. 6 days before the Arkansas Derby PC did a :58.4. You'd think they'd repeat this sort of thing. Instead, we get two very slow works to the Derby with a slow footed animal (relatively), and a 35 and change 2 days before the Derby. Marking this horse down as I'm other than a fan of these close event speed works. Some horses recover, some specifically fail to recover. Question whether what was done was optimal planning. The horse may be awake mentally which was their goal, but physically he'll run his race trying to bounce back from today's work.

2. I Want Revenge: I'd opined maybe Mullins has done a superior job. Close exam reveals the training good instead of great. This is the only horse that did his last work the ideal 4 days out. Good. Otherwise since the Wood on 5/4 IWR primarily has been engaged in maintenance work that is a little too light for my taste. This has however been combined with some two mile work--the only one in this field to show that--and, some 2 minute galloping, again, only horse that shows that. We're ok here with 2 mile gallops and 2 min lick as being tougher training, but to be effective they need to be combined with targeted breezes seemingly lacking. Going 1.25 miles may be a lot to ask of one breeze that went 5f in a month.Possibly a little short running against the best!

3. Friesan Fire: Decent recent breezing, but below mid pack in training volume for the year and recent training volume. Without the :57.4 on 4/27 I'd toss him, and, so happy L. Jones and me on the same wave length (regards this). The 4/27 breeze served as a necessary tightener. Yet, we've seen these fast works go both ways. Old Trieste and a few others come to mind as horses who went backwards off final fast works. Reason: the horse probably unprepared for the speed by its prior training. There's a good possibility of tha there. And, although L. Jones avoids the 8 Belles error (200 lbs, 3 days after the speed work, in :14s), I'm other than a fan of Jones clomping around the track with this horse the rest of the week. There is something to be said for Jone's strategy with this horse. (if we ignore the injury aspects.) It will take something very good to beat FF.

4. Advice: is talking based on the video gallops. Advice shows in the upper 1/3 of speed event volume both for the year and recently. Decent although short of great training job. And, the recent win. Advice probably the more dangerous Plecher horse.

Well, that settles that. Closer looks necessary!

Optimizing Derby Performance

Performance variables:

Talent
Conditioning in several parameters--volume, spacing, speed, distance
Riders
Trainers
Husbandry
Misc. factors.

How do the variables affect this Derby? Let's get down it.

Kick this off by noting that (to me) Dunkirk looked anything but a happy camper out there track this morning, ...whereas in contrast may we need to heed Advice?

But, let's throw 'em out for real (as opposed to prelims here over the last weekend):

Horses below fail showing work tabs permitting them physically to compete with more trained horses regardless of talent. Any win from this group and RR transported to the alternate universe:

West Side Bernie
Atomic Rain
No Where to Hide
Hold Me Back
Summer Bird

Next, adequate, average trained part of the field where exceptional talent might overcome training deficiency:

First, throw out any with last pre-derby breeze before April 26 (4/25 or earlier) will suffer significant conditioning disadvantage against the top trained horses. An unreported two minute gallop or run down the lane since 4/25 would affect this. These last worked 4/25 or earlier and have had at least average training for the field(see last post):

Musket Man
Regal Ransom
Desert Party
General Quarters
Dunkirk

Note, Godolphin also trained Midshipman and Vineyard Haven. A nice couple of works for those two Godophins in a questionably conceived program, or so it appears. Musket =trainer with head on shoulders and stays in for now. Will they compete with Musket, or, just run?


Next, well or average trained horses with talent. How do we separate?

Advice
Friesan Fire
Papa Clem
Chocolate Candy
I Want Revenge
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private
Mr. Hot Stuff

Do any of the above show extremely (more than the rest) logical, beneficial work tabs that will produce conditioning and speed on Derby Day? Answer: yes, as follows:

1. Mr. Hot Stuff--6 breeze/races since 3/24 (39 days) or one speed event every 6.5 days. Each of these events is at near :12 sec/f speed. Ignore that one can quibble over the specific training. Comparatively this horse will go into the race as very strong and well conditioned.

2. Chocolate Candy--7 breeze races since 3/19 (44 days) or every 6.3 days with several Derby specific distances and at racing speed. Nice speed and distance work here. Last quick breeze 5 days out. Only 8 day gap in speed work between last race and next breeze--everything about CC indicates a horse that has been maintained in its strength, and aerobic and anaerobic work. Would be a shock if this horse was anything but very tough on Derby Day.

3. Pioneer Of The Nile: This horse has been doing Street Sense stuff in that the work tab only shows part of the distance worked. There is mile breeze work here that fails to show on the PPs. Different formula than CC. Should be fittest in here. Misc. concerns though, later.

4. Flying Private: Lukas, similar to the above, has maintained the fitness of this horse through the campaign. In contrast to the above there's little to suggest improving performance as they go. Lukas in this regard speaks of the pedigree. If FP is ok with his breathing--a question based on Lukas comments--expect a big race but out footed.

To Be Continued.

Derby Speed Work/Furlongs

Speed work since 12/29/09.

Number of works--Horse--Number of speed furlongs (breeze/races)

17 Chocolate Candy 107
17 Papa Clem 103
17 Flying Private 98
17 I Want Revenge 97
16 Mr. Hot Stuff 97
16 Pioneer Of The Nile 88
14 Dunkirk 82
14 Join In The Dance 75
13 Musket Man 75
13 Advice 71
13 Mine That Bird 71
12 No Where To Hide 64
11 Friesan Fire 68
11 Atomic Rain 63
11 Hold Me Back 61
10 General Quarters 62
10 Summer Bird 60
9 West Side Bernie 55
Regal Ransom unknown
Desert Party unknown

Speed work since 3/28:

5 Papa Clem 33
5 Chocolate Candy 31
5 Pioneer Of The Nile 27
5 I Want Revenge 27
5 Flying Private 27
5 Mr. Hot Stuff 25
4 Advice 26
4 Musket Man 25
4 Desert Party 23 (estimate)
4 Regal Ransom 23 (estimate)
4 Friesan Fire 23
4 Dunkirk 23
4 General Quarters 23
4 Join In The Dance 23
3 Summer Bird 20
3 Hold Me Back 19
3 Mine That Bird 19
3 Atomic Rain 17
2 No Where to Hide 13
2 West Side Bernie 12

Training:
Wed 4/29 1 inch rain today. Off.

Good Derby Training/Questionable DerbyTraining

Coaches/managers/trainers have various effects depending on who you talk to. Does the horse run in spite of or because of its trainer? Whatever your answer, can you evaluate a Derby horse, put down your greenbacks ,without an opinion on this interesting group of trainers?

In this regard, that small cyclone emanating from the KY State Vet Office would be the Square Eddie collective sigh of relief. Peckam, puffing on his pipe: "...saves us the trouble..." (txs to 'deep throat' for the quote.) But, kudos to Paul Reddam for "erring on the side of caution" in contrast with certain other connections a year ago!

Doug O'Neil seems like the sort of fellow you'd enjoy having coffee with. Smart, educated, experienced, bear of a nice fellow. Yet...(see blog Sept.-Oct. 08 posts).

To cliche it, we tread a fine line with horses--walking on egg shells and membranes. Zero mistakes. You'd like that last workout by Square Eddie at first blush. Seems well planned. A volume of work combined with speed at the end. If SE can survive the Lexington, surely he can that little bit of mild exercise. What went wrong?

Decline here a close look at SE's work tab. You can look it up at Doug Oneil Horse Trainer website. Notice if there's anything in there appropriately preparing SE for a two mile gallop with speed at the end. And then add to what you see doing this for the first time on dirt instead of poly with a 140+ lbs exercise rider, 10 lbs. saddle, 5 lbs. additional equipment on board, and we start to consider Rule #1: never do anything with a horse without being 100% certain you can do it without injuring the horse. I avoid being overly critical. Once they made the decision to run it was a fine fine line. Great horse. I wish the connections sincerely best of luck!

On the other hand, anyone considering maybe Jeff Mullins has done a very nice job? Recently committed the crime of helping a horse breathe. Of course the horse players and cynics jump all over squirting Air Power. Confers an advantage, they think. If I have a bitch with Mullins it is his failure to defend the product against a stupid rule. Get on a horse one time before you get all bent out of shape.

Today's video shows superior husbandry for I Want Revenge, and though I've yet to analyze the training line (coming soon), the recent training I've looked seems logical and well conceived. Small hints and cues here that all is well. One probable chink in the armour though to comment on before Saturday.

Bill--if you see this I'd be interested in your opinions on the Derby!

Training:
Tues. 4/28: Art exercises by escaping the farm again. Rod walked 10 minutes under tack. Terrible ground conditions.

Misc.

Some thoughts on today's news:

1. Seeing better Derby exercise riding than a year ago. Larry Jones himself looks as if he's dropped a pound or two.Friesan Fire looked comfortable under Jones, whereas Old Fashion had looked decidedly out of sorts.

2. Yet, there go Hold Me Back and Chocolate Candy slow galloping down the stretch on the wrong lead. Little stuff!

3. This one's a pisser. Did Quality Road have the same shoer as Big Brown? Realm of possibility. My cantankerous nature is well known, but criticize to learn, and I continue to question Ian McKinley as last year when he kept that equilox on Big Brown's hoof wall for months (drying out and hence weakening that wall resulting (probably) in the pre-Breeder's Cup explosion of the hoof.). Here, while I applaud MckInley's method of breaking down and micromanaging the injury there are serious questions about method. I've never had a quarter crack, but have treated plenty of trauma injuries to the quarter area. Do you lace the crack when the injury is still there, or do you cut away some lose wall and just let the thing be for 48 hours. It will keratinize and harden in that period, then you lace. Do you put antiseptic on injured tissue? Well known that antiseptic retards the healing process. Do you put in a drain while the horse gallops (an irritant) or after the gallop is finished. Lots of questions.

4. The crash at Churchill. Why would the riderless horse have failed to swerve and avoid the collision? I had a similar experience a few years back riding my Groovin' Wind at the Woodlands when Wind, for reasons unknown, suddenly bore out to the rail going full tilt and heading straight for a big fat Palomino pony heading the other way. As we approached the Palomino and I was unable to turn my horse, I thought that surely Wind on his own would swerve at the last moment and avoid the collision. He did not. Disaster was averted when the pony rider saw us at the last moment and sped up his horse We just brushed his butt which did cause a swerve.

Think I've figured out why they fail to swerve inward and avoid the collision. My Rodney will often drop out of our riderless speed work in our round paddock and head full tilt in the opposite direction heading for a collision with the other two. Inevitably the horses will avoid each other in a direction the opposite what a human would expect. I'm thinking "go right" and instead they go "left". Every time. I'm thinking it's vision. The horse at the track swerving toward the rail and on collision course with a horse at the rail sees the situation with its right eye. Probably--as you consider this--the horse sees this the collision is avoidable by bearing further to the right essentially going in front of the object instead of bearing left behind it. If the lead is wrong the horse may be unable to do what it is thinking, which probably is what happened this morning.

5. How'd they look today? Friesan Fire bounces so easily over the race track, and Pioneer of the Nile did about a mile work, shades of Nafzger with Street Sense in SS's last pre-derby work. Sort of a no-brainer that these two horses will be right there. Chocolate Candy continues to impress me. Dorf, maybe otherwise. Advice looked dangerous!

6. I Want Revenge: we had 2.25 meteorological inches overnight presumably heading towards Louisville. Do you have to watch the weather when you plan your final pre-derby breeze Jeff Mullins?

Training:
Mon. 4/27 Off.

KY Derby Contenders (Preliminary Look)

"...what we were summoned here to do, we knew but have forgotten."--Lemurs in chorus while digging Faust's grave.

Pretenders last post, and now the contenders!. Needing PPs to analyze training. And, will rain interfere with the Derby? They'll have our sympathy.

Workout videos and more suddenly appeared on KY Derby website. I'm already hedging on Godolphin based on the video, recalling though, this is the trainer of Discreet Cat

Blog readers, the one or two of you, know I've feared the Sheik and want to keep Mohammed away from the exercise physiology labs. But, 2008 Breeder's Cup results indicate possible change in thought process since the days of Discreet Cat and the World Cup. The Sheik wants things his way, and more power to him, but at some point Saeed Bin Suroor was summoned to the palace:

Sheik: Saeed, I'm going broke with your training.

Saeed: My apologies, your majesty. Unknown what is going wrong.

Sheik: Gosden says you should pay more attention to exercise physiology.

Saeed: Exercise physiology?

Sheik: Yes.

Saeed: Instead of genetics?

Sheik: Yup. comply or fall on your sword.

Regal Ransom and Desert Party breeze fast, as appears necessary against this field, but also looked good and very very strong. Maybe we have a Godolphin factor to consider!

Who remains in the preliminary look:

1. Friesan Fire: Blog readers understand my views on the trainer. But, this horse has ability! Can a talented horse beat best field ever off a layoff and a few recent quality works? Maybe boils down to last breeze going fast or slow. A Hard Spun type final breeze, imo FF right in there. Anything slow, up the track.


2. Chocolate Candy: Impressed me since day one despite dangerously long pasterns. Nice balance, ground eating stride, seemingly superior training but that CC raced only once since January naggs. Did what seems a new Dorf blow it right there? Need to look at PPs carefully later!

3. Pioneer Of The Nile: very obvious favorite.

4. Papa Clem: Chinks in the armor start showing. Stute has done/did a great job, but possible Eion Harty disease operating. PC way too slow for this field and needed significant speed work. Never got it. He'll be unable to catch the cavalry charge.

5. Musket Man: trainer seemingly knows what he's doing, and a good horse. Hmmm...

6. Dunkirk: For 4 million dollars could they get the horse to Churchill a little sooner? Interesting lab rat here--can a very talented horse beat best field ever off Plecher powder puff 5f breezes? Common sense says negative. We'll see.

7. Advice: The significance of the recent big win keeps on showing!

The winner? Training shows similar this year, but look at nuances later. Given relative sameness of the track work, will talent(speed) out in 2009, and if so, which has the most talent?

Throw out Plechers as lacking bottom to run all the way to the wire. Possibly add Godolphin with Chocolate Candy, and FF as right in there all the way, and a Musket bearing down. Baffert is this year's Nafzger. I'm unable to see him losing.

Training:
Sat. 4/25 rain just holds off. Rod's foot was padded with cotton and he successfully performed a little riderless work--first in a week. Art galloped back and forth on the only usable part of the track--about 1 1/4 miles then did about 2 miles riderless in muddy :15s.
Sun: 4/26: Art: off. Rod walk trotted under tack for about 10 min as ground conditions limit again.

Narrowing The Derby

Almost that time! This post, who should be elsewhere besides the winners circle May 2, RR version.

(Edit note: videos now up on KY Derby website. The Dubai horses looking good!)Missing those TBTimes videos from a year ago, but the extensive workout notes help! With what's available so far can we begin to ferret out horses and trainers probably short of being up to snuff?

My early throw outs.

1. Quality Road. Man among boys. Size, speed, strength, ground eating efficient stride. What more in a Derby horse beyond maybe the absolutely perfect specimen as Big Brown before the weight gain? + Jimmie Jerkens, from black hole of NY training (see Mott) seems to have done a good job with a decent work tab!
The Reason For The Scratch: the several Jerkens videos serve as red flags with that deer in the headlights look and simplistic training blather. Non-athlete trainer. Question if J gets all this. Quarter cracks symptomatic of deeper problems. Qcs caused by 1. turn downs (branches of hind shoes turned down producing pressure at the quarters--see BB 2008.)--and possibly explain QR racing in Fl. instead of NY, or more likely: 2. questionable shoeing practice--nails driven incorrectly at an angle (instead of perpendicular) at the quarters results in nail pressure and shoe imbalance. We have qcs front and hind so unlikely it's turn downs and likely its negligent shoeing, and hence training. Do we get qc if we know (if we know what we are doing) right before the KY Derby?????? Trainer looking over his shoer's shoulders, controlling the variables, not. QR to hang in the stretch, a bold (scary) prediction.

2. I Want Revenge: decent looker beating pigs. Fast and he's been working. The comparative work tab among horses needs to be looked at, but Revenge a cut below the best here?
Reason for the scratch: Jeff Mullins.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff: those nice Susan Casner You Tubes once again as with the bro complete with music but showing Eion Harty, as a seeming slow learner. Like Colonel John, Mr. HS lacks speed and needs speed work, and yet videos show the exact Harty workouts that failed a year ago.

4. Flying Private: latest Wayne (I don't work horses) Lukas poster boy for1990s training. It's 2009 Wayne + how far the horse gallops does matter. (see latest ludicrous Lukas quote.)

5. Hold Me Back: Ditto as Flying Private. Mott was a great trainer, in the '90s. One breeze Blue Grass to Derby. Please. A shame!

6. General Quarters: egregious training negligence according to the PPs.

7. Desert Part/Regal Ransom: Sheik (alarmingly) catching onto things? These have been working fast, yet RR has questions about Saheed Bin S____, and the horses seem a cut below. Amazing what 2 million smackers buys these days.

8. Win Willy: Trainer out to lunch. Too bad!

9. Square Eddie: Hope he makes it around. See blog, fall 2008 on this trainer.

10. West Side Bernie: trainer rides the horse, under the radar work possibly. What shows though, an under worked under talented animal.

11. Summer Bird: I once owned a Jaraman horse. Dr. from Fl. The guy's been around. Tim Ice. Typical decent training job to first race (all down hill from there).

That's the scrap heap. Interesting who's left!

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling VII: Calculating Timing

The man again. Read on to see why this post belongs to Tom Ivers.

Lots of "ifs". If the event temporarily compacts the lattice slightly and increases bone glue pressure, if there is a resulting slight increase in strength, and if there is a bounce back effect in 3-5 days as I have supposed--- suspect that this is the process of "hard body" training as you may see it described on You Tube and also what allowed the old timey trainers to get away with their frequent, lengthy breeze work. With repeated poundings bone will compact and increase in density and strength up to a certain maximum point permitting the karate chop that will break the bricks. Such is aided and abetted over time by construction of new and presumably stronger bone by the osteo clast/blast process. All theory--but something has got to be going on in there even if there are some errors in exact conceptualization.

For our horses then the question becomes how soon we need to go again after the event to preserve this process. BUT, remember that there are really two questions to this proposed exercise protocol:

1. How soon can we go (after the speed event) where the limiting factor is accumulated (and diffuse) bone cell damage as laid out here in Aug/Sept. 2008 and concluded here:

(Edit--URL failing to work--these posts appear at 9/24 and 9/25/08)
http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2008/09/acceptable-bonecell-damage.html

To prevent excessive bone cell damage over a number of breezes/races we correctly calculate frequency, distance and speed in terms of amount bone cell damage acceptable subjectively. I posted that the old timers may have had a higher tolerance for accumulated damage than do I.

2. How soon must we go(to achieve and maintain race appropriate fracture resistance) is an altogether different question and the question of the moment which perhaps has already been answered by the surmise that within 3-5 days the rebounding effect of the lattice will have completed and thereafter you have the bone in substantially the same condition as pre-event.

Let's add one other hypothesis to this 3-5 day period. Possibly at the end of the 5 days with the completion of rebounding the "threads" of the lattice will remain for a while in such position that a subsequent event more easily pounds them back to where they were in the period of compaction, than e.g. if the next event is a longer period down the road. An example:

If the horse breezes on the 6th or 7th day perhaps the threads(of the lattice cell) recompact by more easily sliding back into their little conjunctive-connective spots, whereas if the horse next breezes in 2 weeks post event the conjunctive areas will have recalcified and the sliding back to original position by these threads would be impossible.

So, I'm thinking, if the horse breezes maybe within 8 days of the event there might still be some "saving" effect of the original event compacting!

This is probably enough to allow logical decision making with regard to the timing of the next speed event.

Consider the next speed event as within 3,4,5,6,7, 8 days. Based on the theory, the sooner within this period the next event occurs the greater the cumulative compactive effect. But, if we do have an 8 day window where we still get a benefit, then we may calculate the exact timing based on our concern over the limiting factor of "bone cell damage" caused by the event. If we have a greater fear of damage we might wait the whole 8 days. If our concern is less or non-existent--e.g. if the horse never ran a jump and had an easy race--we may decide to do something on day 3!

I also support there is an "optimal" time, again considering possible event damage. It seems very obvious to me that the optimal is probably 4 days. If we wait longer than 5 days we get less and less improvement until we pass the 8th day and get none at all except bone rebuilding.

So, perhaps Tom Ivers got it right. Every 4 days is the ideal speed spacing, limited by what we perceive to be damage from the prior events. Certainly this analysis supports what Ivers intuitively believed.

Training:
Thurs. 4/24 Off after an inch of rain today. The two major engineering problems for the trailer are solved this week. Trailer is back in the paddock and we're trailer training.
Fri. 4/25: 30-40 mph wind gusts have dried things out but the horses are jumping out of their skins. Nob refuses to get on. Art goes riderless at speed: 5 x 2f in the mud. Rod has a nickel size wound in his sole completely exposing the laminae. A two-three day deal in dry weather. It is anything but that around here.

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling VI: Significance Of The Subsequent Event

Last post theorized speed work producing a compactive mineral lattice event within the cannon bone lasting 3-5 days and a bone glue effect lasting 2-3 weeks. For reasons laid out in these posts, the assumption is that the various "effects" or changes resulting from the speed work create a temporary increase in bone tissue strength. Consider simultaneously my speculation that each speed event (for the carefully trained horse) also creates 1% diffuse cell damage or destruction spread throughout the bone.

This brings me to the point of what is going to happen when we send our horse back out.

We know a little( instead of a lot) about what major trainers do these days from the event to the next speed work. Lukas in 1989 would wait 3-4 days to the next track "jog" or gallop and 8-10 days to the next speed work. In contrast, Plecher under ideal circumstances likes to wait 3 weeks to the next speed work. There is very little info on what sort of track work is done in the interim--speed work to speed work-- except in the case of Lukas (who was documented in the Ross Staaden book.). As a side note, I find it fascinating that in 2009 that we know so little.

Two questions to consider carefully post event. What may happen if we:

1. Conduct the next speed work within 3-5 days.
2. Fail to send our horse back out in this period.

First, what occurs if the horse post event 4 days later breezes a Preston Burch mile in 1:45 or something less all the way down to a conservative 3f in :39.

3f in :39 would be insufficient to cause additional remodeling (it takes a minimum of 4f in :50 for this.). HOWEVER, consider that the horse will be going into that :39 with (theoretically) a slightly compacted lattice and tighter bone glue! Would even a work as conservative as a :39 reinforce the residual effect of the last prior speed work?

I'd have to think in the affirmative, that a :39 is enough to extend compactive remodeling effects that are the residue of the prior speed work to the point there is reinforcement. The mineral lattice will cease its rebounding and be hit with new compaction, and the bone glue will remain tight.

Extrapolate from this, lesser effects for slower speeds down to a routine 1.5 mile gallop where, at some point in the speed/distance equation, the "effect" reaches zero in terms of keeping the lattice compacted and bone glue tight? Take a stab, based on what we understand about concussion at various speeds, that :15s or less will have little to insignificant impact in keeping bone material tamped down. As speed reduces, ground pounding and concussion gradually transform to ground flicking with very little concussion.

May we conclude that if we send the horse out for speed 4 days post event, the faster we go, and the longer we go, the more dramatic "reinforcing effect" we get in terms of what has gone on before!

Training:
Wed. 4/22 Art gallops back and forth over the dry part of the track 4 x 2.5f slow with some trot-walk between. Rod off due injury to sole right hind. With ground drying, Rod back in business tomorrow.

The Zenyatta Video

For this blog's post #900 how about a close look at the sensational Zenyatta video with a bird's eye view of the ride, and we see what a noted barn and jock do with a champion horse.

There's little in life more fun that being on a race horse at speed. You get a feel of this from the video. I'd add to what you see that when you're on board the ground going by will seem much clearer in real time than on the video. Unknown what Mike Smith does as he motors down the track, but I'm intent on the ground just ahead, steering my horses through the best part of the divots, calculating my exit strategy with every stride should something happen. Do I bail out right, left, how do I get the feet out of the stirrups, how do I land. You get a whiff in the video of the intense concentration involved as you notice the jabbering begins after the work.

In addition to what you get on the web cam, there's a 35 mph wind hitting you in the face, and possible negative pressure if the wind is already blowing hard. On dirt you hear the front lead leg smacking into the ground and get significant jarring with every stride. There is a strong forward propulsive feel from the bounding animal. My horses have to chug significantly harder to get their :12s than does Zenyatta here. She gives more the effect of :13s when she's lopping off :12s. It's difficult to notice lead changes and the reinsmanship in process to bring that about. Guarantee that is going on. And how about Mike Smith's enthusiasm after how many years and how many rides. Great stuff!

As to the handling of the horse, I might have been more impressed. Maybe a few years down the road we'll see significant changes in the protocol as it appears here, particularly with respect to the warm up where I'd guess the horse probably is ready for her best performance if she went another round. You'll notice here almost zero attempt to improve a performance and little idea in the purpose or concept of what is happening I was a little surprised at the lack of communication as I noticed it between rider and horse, and the ponyman dolt is one of the problems at our racetracks. What I see here as deficiencies in handling may best be explained by noting, where you to watch the same thing with one of my animals, you'd probably see the horse has a lot more say in what is going on, whereas in this one Z seems more like an irrelevant automaton. My guess, things are getting more sophisticated as we go. We're seeing that this year in the Derby training, if you read the daily notes.

Training:
Tues. 4/21. Rod's problem is a wound instead of right hind abscess. Looks as if he hit a rock at full tilt as there's smashing in about the size of a quarter in the sole and some exposed laminae. Hopefully a 2 or 3 day thing, if we can keep the thing from infecting. Art had been on quite a romp already as I arrived as he was red hot and sweaty. Following yesterday's speed stuff, easy today and reinto tack work 2 x 3f slow gallop with some trot-walk.

Lexington Postcript

"Advice". Good name! I'll take small solace that the horse was better than 15-1 on my 4/17 post, although obviously the categorical handicapping imperatives here need a little work when the field seems to finish inversely to their training. Save detailed discussion till the blog finally gets to the questions of performance, although for now we may note, per the 4/17 post that the horse that won was also the one rated highest in this field on recent training!

And, a word on my horse, Jeranimo where I got sucked in by watching the San Felipe video where J ran such a good race next to Pioneer of the Nile. That's where I went brain dead (this time).
I quit before analyzing jocks, trainers, connections, shipping, all the intangibles. If you're tempted to dismiss the importance of the ride take a look at this video and watch J. Jeeeeeez.

J has the dangerous inside post, and, sure enough Blanc, instead of getting himself in position, permits the horse to fall back and race all the way around eating polytrack kickback with the little horse's face plastered against the huge El Crespo butt. Small horses get intimidated by this sort of thing. Blanc fidgets back and forth but never makes a real move on the horse till the 1/8th when it's too late. If you're jock refuses to compete--and that's other than to "risk"--its tough to win in this sort of field. May we blame this on the trainer. Were was the strategy to "use" this well trained horse. They left about 50% of him out there on the track.
That's my J rant.

Notice that the second place horse Conservative, is among the best trained horses for the year. The blog will continue to look at training vs. performance and what rules may be derived (if any) as we go. In the mean time, enjoy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative

Training:
Sun 4/19: Too much mud to do anything productive. Off.
Mon: 4/20. In come the winds and sun drying us out, and a forecast that constant rains may be over finally. We're ready, but, typical horses. First, Rodney refuses leaving the barn for riderless speed work. Is it his sprung shoe? negative, Rod has an abscess right hind + a sprung front shoe. That leaves Art who enthusiastically attacks the riderless speed stuff but seems unable to stay with the 14 year old. What's the deal there? As it turns out sprung shoe #2 at about 80 degrees. Scratched tack work and shoe'd instead.

More Lexington Stakes

After three weeks the Indiana Twin Spires account sits at $201.90 from an initial deposit of $200.00. Handicapping is hard work!

Some of this cash is on Jeranimo.

For what little it's worth, RR thought process follows.

First, the normal throw outs, anything trained by Zito, and (with my usual political incorrectness) the female trainer Katherine Ball. I'll be looking foward to the day I have to eat crow vis a vis the ladies, but thinking that will happen, as it surely will, on another day.

Next: anybody in here, regardless of training, outclassed or too slow? Two horses have yet to run above allowance: Omniscient and Conservative, who with good breeding and respected trainers run today against horses finishing up the track in Grade IIs and IIIs.

I like to look at fractions. Are they fast enough? Omniscient's basically runs 12s, Conservative slower yet. Despite the training advantages these two show, their lack of speed creates risks here, but, leave them in for now.

Take a look next at the training:

Last post indicates a significant gap in "speed work for the year" between the top 4:

16 Omniscient 84 Asmussen
14 Jeranimo 80 Michael Pender
14 Conversative 72 Mcgaughey
13 El Crespo 69 George Arnold.

and the next 4 that have similar work tabs:

12 Masala 65 Plecher
11 Parade Clown 62 Ball
11 Advice 68 Plecher
11 His Greatness 62

At the bottom we have Pitched Perfectly and Square Eddie, both injured horses coming back with comparative little bottom to the field. Since both horses are also at the bottom of the "recent" work tab since 2/26 (see last post), and neither--per my mistake last week with General Quarters--show brilliant last works (also SE's 1:12 gives slight pause), toss SE and PP.

So--4 out--7 to go. Do any of the 7 have particularly logical or illogical recent work/race tabs? I rate work/race spacing, on a scale of 1-10 with 10 as the best. I'm influenced by recent racing with appropriate breezing. Lack of appropriate breezing after a recent race severely downgrades the horse,

Omniscient 7
El Crespo 7
Jeranimo 6

Advice 5+
His Greatness 5
Conservative 5

Masala 4

Masala at the bottom of this is out. Imo Masala has done too little since his last race on 3/7 to be competitive with the top trainers in here and shows little else to recommend him. Plecher would have had to do a better training job to really get this horse to the Derby. What was he thinking? Would be interesting to know.

Do any of the remaining 6 have a recent race combined with a recent work? The one that qualifies here is Advice by Plecher. Advice training has been at least average and needs to be taken seriously here as he may have the best race fitness going in!

So, let's narrow it.

Hesitantly throw out McGaughey's Conservative by Unbridled's Song out of a Seeking the Gold mare who WON his last 2, as being too slow in his races and worked too slow by the trainer. He'll be out footed by somebody. His Greatness is another consistently slow animal finishing well behind in the IL Derby who has get to see any fast work in the last 14 days. Illogical that His Greatness would fail to hit the wall on this sort of training.

4 left--the top 3 trainees are consistent above--Omniscient, Jeranimo, El Crespo against Advice. These are the competitors. Unkown what sort of horses they are. I'd like to look at the film, but am without time. Handicap them against each other:

Advice vs. Omnisicent: I think Asmussen's horse outfoots Advice who I believe they are experimenting with and developing slowly.

Omnisicent vs Jeranimo: This is a tough call. BUT one trainer trains slow (Asmussen), the other fast. This gives the nodd to Jeranimo.

Jeranimo vs. El Crespo: Interestingly, each of my final 3 raced last on 3/14 more than 30 days ago, and each show a decent recent work tab with equivalently good spacing. I'm unable to separate these two by their training or their trainers. I'm going to look at the tape, on these two:

1. El Crespo, a big strong horse, beat a questionably trained field and in the Palm Beach, and had the gross advantage of leaving the gate on the left lead. He thus had a very strong right lead in the stretch that allowed him to power away from a spent field. Question training at Gulf Stream.
2. Jeranimo the obviously better, strong horse.

$2 to show on Jeranimo.

Training:
Fri 4/17 We're trying to get back after backing up due to March and April weather. With another deluge coming in--although looking today, far less than predicted--we opt for needed riderless speed work as we're unable to get speed under tack at this point. 4 x 3f at 85-90% speed.

Coolemore Lexington Stakes

(Blog condolences to the connections of Tin Cup Chalice. Having barely dodged a few headers myself on the race track, I can only imagine.)

Square Eddie(Smart Strike--El Gran Senor) will supposedly take the Lexington on "class". I did once own a classy filly closely related to El Gran Senor(by Northern Dancer), and acknowledge Smart Strike as a significant sire. Square Eddie seems to have class, if genetics can provide.

This post will deal strictly with performance instead of the George Washington type implications here based on this high injury rate outfit entering this horse off three breezes after a recent stress fracture. This is the sort of thing that entry rules need to prevent, and an interesting test for former Kansas State Vet, now KY State vet Bryce Peckam. Should SE make it to the Derby, I've seen Peckam scratch 'em for less.

Number of breeze/races since 12/31--horse--number of speed furlongs for the year--Trainer

16 Omniscient 84 Assmussen

14 Jeranimo 80 Michael Pender

14 Convervative 72 McGaughey

13 El Crespo 69 George Arnold

12 Masala 65 Plecher

11 Parade Clown 62 Katherine Ball

11 Advice 58 Plecher

11 His Greatness 62

12 Brave Victory 53 Zito

10 Hull 52 Dale Romans

9 Pitched Perfectly 49 Tagg (Contessa)

7 Square Eddie 38 O'Neil

Square Eddie has less than 1/2 the speed work for the year than the top horse and significantly less then all the field but Pitched Perfectly, who was injured during March.

since 2/26

7 Omniscient 37

6 El Crespo 33

6 Jeranimo 32

5 Parade Clown 30

5 Brave Victory 28

5 Masala 26

5 Conservative 26

4 Advice 32

4 His Greatness 31

4 Hull 20

4 Square Eddie 19

3 Pitched Perfectlyy 14 (hurt in early March)

SE shows half the work of the top horse and much less than all below His Greatness.

Can lesser horses beat this sort of SE training? RR guesses in the affirmative. Possibly more handicapping here before post time. Doug O'Neil training previously highlighted, starting here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2008/10/doug-oneil.html

(D. O'Neil posts appear 9/16/08 to 10/22/08.)

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling VI: Further Compression

Continuing on the path that something, as opposed to nothing, happens within the bone tissue post event beyond mere commencement of osteo clast/blast activity, and that what occurs possibly includes:

slight mineral lattice contraction
bone glue stimulation
collagen expansion

On additional consideration, I have added collagen expansion as another possible post event effect. It seems reasonable that the concussion of the event followed by the subsequent increase in temperature and fluid flow may at certain locations stimulate the living collagen cells in their mitochondrial production depending on location of the cell and state of mineralization. Non-mineralized, newly formed collagen cells at the outer surface e.g. may show more thickening or lengthening than their 100% mineralized cousins in the interior.

The jist of all this is that post event within the bone tissue we have a contractive, compactive effect in the lattice and an expansion effect in the collagen and bone glue that, in concert, would seem to make for tighter, stronger, denser bone, at least in the period until the materials return to pre-event normalcy. If e.g. our horse merely stands in its stall for the next two months, at some point these effects will recede to their former condition.

I speculated that the contractive effect of the lattice will last but 3-5 days as there would be an inertia stimulating rebounding to original shape. The expansive fluid effects in the collagen and bone glue--who knows--but it seems reasonable that the cells would relax and the bone glue material dissipate and contract within 2-3 weeks.

But, if our horse does track work instead of standing in the stall, these materials will experience further compression. We may consider the contrast where in a Preston Burch stable, the horse might be expected to conduct its next breeze 3 to 4 days post event and in a Todd Plecher stable the first breeze would be 3 weeks post event. What might be going on within the bone in these scenarios?

First, decline speculation as to the effect of a mere gallop instead of a breeze. Let's leave it that the act of slow galloping might have some effect but that the light nature of that concussion would be insignificant, for purposes of discussion.

What seems more interesting to me is what occurs if the horse returns to the track for a breeze 3 or 4 days post event. We may consider the effect:

1. The mineral lattice in a slightly contracted state suffers further contraction.
2. Bone glue production and filling in the micro spaces with bone glue--a process that would seem incomplete at the 3-4 day level--is stimulated further.
3. Collagen cells that have been puffing up receive more stimulation.

If true, the above will presumably further strengthen our bone for the next speed event thereafter. The relation of this to "hard body training" and what might be different in Todd Plecher's barn, next post.

Training:
Thurs. 4/17: With the track still primarily muddy, we're relegated--as we have been since 2/20-- to galloping back and forth in a 2.5f portion. The horses first did a snappy riderless mile followed by a mile of back and forth gallop with some walk and trot under tack. Art's galloped in :17s, Rod, who is a day or so behind, much slower.

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling V

Last post identified (speculated on) post event "effects" and determine how long they last. Several different effects have been noted:

girdening, tightening and then rebounding of the mineral lattice
reshaping and rearrangement particularly of bone glue proteins
inflammatory repair process
commencement of osteo blast/clast activity

Each of the above also results in heat build up that accelerates and expands.

First, (we theorize), the mineral lattice in response to force girds, tightens and then rebounds post event. BUT the rebounding is incomplete. Estimate 5% contraction during the event that stays "crushed" (fails to bound back 100%) to some extent for some period of time post event.

Contraction and failure to bounce back would be significant in terms of increasing density throughout the structure, while the post event build up of bone glue protein also adds density.

Noting again the danger of speculation upon speculation-- the above representing merely logic based on what is known instead of results from some specific research-- next question is how long these "effects" and their resulting increase in post event density last.

1. If the lattice at the molecular level remains slightly contracted immediately post breeze, how long before complete 100% rebounding, and
2. If the bone glue proteins are smashed against the mineralized collagen molecules creating micro spacing quickly (within 48 hrs.) filled by by additional proteins is this effect permanent or temporary.

Considering the nature of the material involved gives significant clues.

The solid mineral lattice molecule has been compressed slightly during the event, but the inertia and resultant energy of the compression create a bounce back effect. BUT if the compressive force was sufficient, the force itself will also create an intertia in the other direction. If the force is thus sufficient the inertia preventing the bounce back will be greater in some degree than the bounce back intertia. BUT the bounce back intertia will continue until at some point rebounding will have completed. (perfect clarity, for sure!)

Similarly, over time, the compressed bone glue and the new bone glue, will due to their nature (the "similarity" is that the material will react according to its specific nature.) "let up" its pressure as the material relaxes, separates, and cools, as we might expect in a tube of axle grease.

We (I) conclude that over a specific time rebounding will mostly complete and bone glue will return to its pre-event density, BUT in the interim we have somewhat denser stronger bone post event!!!

How long until return to pre-event normalcy take for these materials? The bone glue effect would seem to significantly outlast the mineral lattice rebounding effect due to differences in nature of the material. Does 3-5 days seems logical for the mineral lattice to mostly rebound, and 2-3 weeks for the bone glue density to start to recede, assuming we are without further compression. Aye, there's the rub, as Mr. S says. Further compression-- in the form of our horse's track work, next post.

Training:
Sun. 4/12 Off. Under water.
Mon. 4/13 Off. Deep mud.
Tues. 4/14: Very wet. Horses were trot-walked for 6f. All we could do.
Wed. 4/15: Riderless--wu + 1 mile in :16s. Tack: 6f intermittent gallop for each horse.

Wed. Misc.

This site will return after RR completes his 2008 tax returns. Doing our patriotic duty and our part to finance Obama nation.

Sun. Misc.

And so, dust settling after yesterday's Derby preps. Watching those highly entertaining races on streaming video, the thought came again how this sport is just made for the Internet, and maybe the most interesting bet is the over and under on the days/weeks/months/years before racing's business execs begin to fully appreciate. Some rumblings of this already at Twin Spires, but we're still waiting for those first horse racing video adds on ESPN or SI main page--a visually enthralling race with a list of today's pick six pots, perhaps, or a "Let's Go To The Races" game showing a post parade at Gulfstream with a challenge to Sport's Illustrated's jock wanna be's to "pick the winner" by judging the horses by their appearance and warm ups.

So many issues as the sport churns forward. And, way too many for one post.

KEENLAND.

Where the heck did General Quarters come from, and how would yours truly miscalculate so badly? Sticking with my excuse that I glossed over GQ and was careless in the handicapping process. I handicap each bottom feeder against the other and GQ lost to Cliffy in this process based on training. So, with his but 5 breezes for the year, out goes GQ.

But the perils of less than thorough work. Should have looked closer at recent GQ conditioning-- 4 speed works since 3/7, AND-- a :58.1 5f 7 days out. How many times have we seen a good horse ignited by that sort of work. Add to this the subconscious nagged a bit recalling GQ looked good in that Tampa. Should have gone back to watch his win-- pure oversight.

What to expect of GQ in the Derby. My thoughts--very little. Will depend, of course, on handling here out. The history indicates the horse will be lucky to get another work into the Derby. Good horse, great story, but, keeping my money in my wallet on this one.

Horses that did perform to their training:

GQ--as I've revised it.
Hold Me Back-- #2 in most recent speed work. #2 in race. looked weak, as expected, in the stretch.
Massone
Loch Dub--right in the middle of recent speed work--right in the middle of the race.
Cliffy--at bottom,recent speedwork, and last in the race.

Horses that failed to perform to their training:

Theregosjojo--last post, Blue Grass, explains.
Terrain-- only 4 running at the end including him, small deal there.

OAKLAWN

As I'm watching the Blue Grass considering that polytrack seems by leaps and bounds a kinder surface, there's Old Fashioned fracturing a carpal in the Arkansas Derby. Trouble seems to develop around the 4f pole with a deepening head bob, then zero acceleration around the turn. The horse continued gamely and holds together just long enough to dodge the bullet (A-bomb).

In succeeding years:

Barbarao
Rags To Riches fracturing a hind as she crosses the line in the Belmont.
War Pass fracturing his sesamoids after he crosses the line in the Wood.
8 Belles.
Old Fashioned

and now Friesan Fire entered in the Derby off unprecedented 7 week layoff and zero breezing since his last race to 23 days before the Derby, oh my!

Common thread: questionable training in terms of injury prevention. The Oaklawn post here refers to the superior training of Old Fashion. Clarify this to note: the post was put together rapidly and should have distinguished performance training from injury prevention. Big difference!

My blog policy declines comment (except in cases of extreme negligence such as 8 Belles) on horses that might be injured due to their training. Read here and know who's on my list, and including Larry Jones . Nice guy-but there is no explanation of what he's doing with his stock. Is this the sort of "stuff" that needs to be institutionally reigned in?

Papa Clem was described on here 1/17/09 post as "live long shot".

Somebody made a comment, KH, possibly, about the training. Would Papa, suffering from a less than graceful stride and genetic slowness, have stayed ahead of a healthy Old Fashioned? Some evidence in Papa of what can be done with a less talented horse. Congratuations to Stute!

Horses that performed to training:

Papa Clem--#1 in training volume, finished #1.
Old Fashioned
Win Willy
Flying Private--finished same order as recent training--Lukas maybe unhappy with ride, but horse looks injured, weak compared to last race.

Horses that failed to perform to training:

Summer Bird--what can be done possibly when you run your own race separate from the field.
Danger To Society
Captain Cherokee-- bleeding or breathing problem?

Training:
Sat. 4/11 Mud all over the place with 5 of next 7 days scheduled as heavy rain. Great. BUT just enough grass now that on a 2f section we can gallop back and forth and the grass holds together.
Art: about 1 1/4 mile gallop with some short accelerations.
Rod: been awhile for tack work--about 3/4 mile trot-canter.

Arkansas Derby

(Edit: This post refers to the training of Old Fashion who suffered a knee fracture. The post will remain unchanged with a clarification regarding the training in the post that follows.)

1. Speed furlongs since 12/29

15 Papa Clem 86
14 Flying Private 83
14 Captain Cherokee 76
12 Ziegfeld 66
11 Danger To Society 64
10 Poltergeist 59
10 Old Fashion 55
9 Win Willy 45
7 Flat Out 45
7 Summer Bird 38

2. Speedwork/furlongs since 2/27 (last 45 days):

7 Papa Clem 42 (Whittingham training/Stute training--subtle difference?)
6 Captain Cherokee 33 (Asmussen!)
6 Danger To Society 31 (without races, though!)
5 Siegfeld 27
5 Flying Private 26 (DW-I don't work horses-Lukas gives his colt a :35.1 3 days out.)
5 Win Willy 24
4 Old Fashion 24
4 Poltergeist 23
3 Flat Out 19
3 Summer Bird 19

Where does work and training end and talent begin in terms of race performance? This race seems a good laboratory for the question. Unlike the Blue Grass, all these trainers have a reason to win the race.

The recent workers here are Papa Clem and Danger To Society, but move Flying Private in with that group based on his work for the year. Very decent job seemingly by Lukas to peak his horse for this race.

Thus, the horses with clearly superior training:

Papa Clem
Flying Private
Danger To Society

But, wait! One more horse deserves consideration for training. We know that Larry Jones gallops his almost every day under 200+ lbs. Jones is sparse on the public work tab, but inexplicably gets performances indicating work under the radar. + the talented Old Fashioned received logical timed works up to the race. Move him in with those with superior training. So:

Papa Clem
Flying Private
Danger To Society
Old Fashioned

Despite other some decent training efforts, particularly by Captain Cherokee, the Asmussen horse, (and he'll be against others with equal or better), there's probably a talent gap in the Arkansas Derby limiting the possibilities to the above 4 and Win Willy.

Win Willy looks like a terrific horse, but, look at his line closely and see some serious training deficiencies. Way to much gapping in those works for me + insufficient long work of late. They tuned him up with a :48.1 3 days out. But, best I can do is make Win Willy the hedge horse. There's plenty of evidence of questionable training. Probably he'll fade.

And, there's pedigree, of course. Why does Jeff Siegel think Old Fashion, an Unbridled Song horse, is without pedigree to get the distance? Puzzling.

Go with the talent here:

Old Fashioned
Flying Private
Papa Clem--conditioning instead of talent!
Win Willy

Easy superfecta box?

(Edit 4:44 pm: just mistimed betting on the Blue Grass. The sister put for me $10 on Papa Clem to show and a $2 superfecta: Old Fashion, Flying Private, Papa Clem, Win Willy.)

Blue Grass Picks

Below are speed works/furlongs since 2/28.

6 Massone--41
5 Hold Me Back--39 Funny how the cream rises to the top here.
? Mafaaz--? Are they seriously racing, or just running?
5 Theregosjojo--32 Note recent training on this one. Set up? Could be.
5 Join In The Dance--29
5 Loch Dubh 27--I handicapped Oaklawn race with Jeff Talley. Same inexplicable non-performance.
6 Charitable Man--28 Steadily working but few furlongs and zero racing. Demoted.
4 Patena--29
4 Terrain--24
4 General Quarters 23
3 Cliffy's Future--17 Believe we saw the Darrin Miller act at 17 lengths behind Street Sense in 2007 Derby. Pass.

There are questions for me whether Mafaaz and Hold Me Back are in this to win or to get in a good run with view to peaking in the Derby on the flawed view imo that the horse will have trouble recovering from a hard race, or, perhaps that they'll be unable to do the hard work they believe necessary right before Derby time. Thus, will either horse be pressed?

Others in the field imo have zero chance: Cliffy, G. Quarters, Terrain, Loch Dub, primarily due to comparitive deficiencies in their handling/training.

This leaves as interesting horses: Charitable Man, Theregosjojo, Join In The Dance, Patena, and Massone.

Is there any doubt that Charitable man will be hopped on steroids? I'm confident enough to publish that. Thus, the horse will be the dangerous unknown quantity. Given my low opinion of K. McGlaughlin training, I'm throwing him out, nevertheless.

Then there is the Patena-Join In The Dance thing where I give Patena the slight advantage due to polytrack experience. Both these trainers will be "trying", so this would be interesting.

Theregosjojo is likely to be the most conditioned horse in the race but that he's trained by McPeek. I am 100% convinced that McPeek is without a clue, and something will trip this horse up. I may have to eat those words given the recent (and rare for McPeek) conditioning, but am glad to take the risk.

To bet on Massone you have to pick a horse that took 7 races to break his maiden. You also consider he finished 2d barely to Chocolate Candy in the El Camino, and, significantly, is trained by Ron McAnally, the superior trainer in this field.

There are some other concerns. Only Charitable Man and Join In The Dance have shown any speed on a speed favoring track. Hold Me Back as a specimen might overcome that typical Mott non-training, although unlike the last two years Mott seems to have figured out the concept of the 5f (instead of 4f) breeze.

Order of finish by groups, as they finish in clumps. I avoid anything but show betting on this toss up sort of race with Patena and Cliffy in any extended exotics.

Massone
Theregosjojo
Hold Me Back
Mafaaz

Patena
Join In The Dance
Charitable Man--steroids

Cliffy
Terrain
GQ
Loch Dub

Toyota Blue Grass

Works/furlongs analysis with comments. A year ago training analysis was useful to separate the men from the boys and girls. This year analysis shows a lot of similar training, and is less useful without considering other variables. Note some surprises below, though, that we might want to take note of.

1. Speed work since 12/30 to indicate "foundation".

Number of breeze/races--horse--number of speed furlongs:

14 Massone--90
? Mafaaz--? we know Gosden (from BC comments) works horses. Presume this one also.
12 Join In The Dance--63
11 Loch Dub--60
10 Patena--67
10 Theregosjojo--59
9 Terrain--46
9 Hold Me Back--38
9 Charitable Man--38
8 General Quarters--49
8 Cliffy's Future--46

2. Speed work since 2/28 (45 days pre-race) to indicate "race fitness". All else being equal we'd expect the horses near the top of the list to be competitive. In a close race, fitness and bottom for the year might come into play:

number of breeze/races--horse--number of speed furlongs

6 Massone--41
5 Hold Me Back--39 Funny how the cream rises to the top here.
? Mafaaz--? Are they seriously racing, or just running?
5 Theregosjojo--Note recent training on this one. Set up? Could be.
5 Join In The Dance--29
5 Loch Dubh 27--I handicapped Oaklawn race with Jeff Talley. Same inexplicable non-performance.
6 Charitable Man--28 Steadily working but few furlongs and zero racing. Demoted.
4 Patena--29
4 Terrain--24
4 General Quarters 23
3 Cliffy's Future--17 Believe we saw the Darrin Miller act at 17 lengths behind Street Sense in 2007 Derby. Pass.

Once again, the (seemingly) weaker horses have less works. How to handicap?

First, we throw out the RR least favorite trainers who habitually put in questionable training jobs--Anything by McPeek or McGlaughlin is out, although I expect Theregosjojo to show prominently based on unusual "recent" work.

Second: Plecher and Mott, and especially Mott will have to show me something before we plunk down another RR red cent on their horses. (Oh...wait--Mott has the most talented horse, ALTHOUGH, notice that Hold Me Back has but one work in the last 20 days. Ripe for an upset, possibly?

Third: Might we consider a wager on Massone???

Interesting race that I may handicap closely and post RR picks before post time.

Paragallo And Moral Philosophy

There are six survivors to the ship wreck but only room for five in the life boat. Who goes and who stays poses a classic question in moral philosophy. And, you know where this is going. Mother Theresa volunteers..."I'll jump in". Ernie Paragallo, on the other hand, is seen throwing someone overboard.

Is the correct solution to the problem of the life boat to be found in our "experience" in terms of seeking pleasure/avoiding pain--Parragalo, or are our decisions, as with Mother Theresa, to be guided by an intuitive conceptualization of right and wrong?

The same dilemma we see expressed in Goethe's Faust:

"Chorus: That ancient truth we will recite it. Give way to force, for might is right. For who would boldly offer strife than risk your house, estate and life?"

We might reword the inherent hypocrisy illustrated by Goethe's line for Paragallo and our equine moral philosphers, who are in plentiful supply these days: For who would boldly spend their fortune (on horses) than risk their own poverty and irrelevance?

And so, we ponder what is it in people that causes them to neglect animals? What sort of scum bag would fail to feed and water a horse? Or, is this really a question at all about a person's character?

I've confronted the question in my own family. A few years back I was visiting a cousin. This cousin is hardly the fool. She has a brother who is a medical doctor, she is married herself to a medical doctor, is a college graduate, and had two high achieving young boys ages 11 and 12. I noticed a rabbit cage in the back yard far away from the house. As I'm prone to do, I quickly size up neglect situations, in this case spurred by the distance of the cage from the house. I was trying to envision those boys at this age making that long trip from the house to the rabbit cage all that often or being possessed conceptually re appropriate care, given the distance. So, I walked out to the cage to check it. Sure enough, there was no water at all in the cage. Food but no water--the classic sign of something amiss, and a rabbit looking to my eye a little distressed. The rabbit is by itself in a cage, which in itself qualifies as abuse.

Here is what happened next. I mentioned to the oldest boy that the rabbit was without water. "I'll water it later." Me: "I think you should water it now." Does not water rabbit. I then mention the situation to the mother: "do you know that rabbit back there is without any water?" Surprised expression: "Oh, I'll talk to the boys about that" sort of brushing the subject off. Me: "I think we need to make them go out now and water the rabbit". "Oh, I'll talk to them later." When I left that night the rabbit was still without water, and I put some in the cage. To this day I hope they saw me.

Given mixture of education, brains, and integrity involved with my beautiful cousin's family, how is it that the rabbit fails to get water? Is there some moral failing or something else?

After much thought and observation over the years watching people at the track take care of their horses or failing to do so, etc. etc, I have come to think of animal abuse as a sort of madness that ought to be looked at more as a psychological problem than a moral failing. We deal with such as Paragello no doubt as in case of my cousin, at one time a boy who failed to feed and water his hamsters while still the apple of his parent's eye, but now the adult who let his horse situation get away from him as mentioned in Left At The Gate with far less money coming in from Unbridled's Song than most people think, and, in final analysis with a mental defect permitting him to overlook what others of us think crucial to our own sanity--that our helpless animals receive care.

We see this in all walks of animal care, from Paragallo to those that think it is somehow ok to perpetually keep their horses in a stall, to those mindless if well intentioned anti-slaughter folks now trying to ring their websites over Paragallo, who are unable to compute the abuse/neglect involved with most OTBs.

The only solution I've come up with is vigilance by the rest of us. You fight it. You take care of the animals, and you spur the authorities, wherever and however you can. (Credit to Professor Daniel Robinson, Oxford, for the life boat example taken from his lecture on Immanuel Kant and the Critique of Practical Reason.)

Training:
Wed. 4/8 Both horses did a slow riderless mile in the paddock. Both horses did 6f trot-gallop.
Thurs. 4/9 Both horses did 2 x 3f riderless at 90% speed in the paddock. Art tacked 6f trot gallop before his second heat was rained out. Rod's tack work was rained out.