2013 Derby Post Mortem

Another post derby crowfest here at RR as we once again suffer the slings and arrows of seeing my two picks--Verrazano and Golden Cents--  up the track, and also the humiliation of overlooking Orb, who was correctly identified by most of the known universe as the winner.

1.  Two things occurred to me from the TV broadcast:

a.  Palace Malice is a great looking horse.

b.  When Golden Cents was flashed in the post parade with the deer in the head lights totally intimidated look from Kevin Krigger it occurred to for the first time that, given the track conditions, number of talented horses, that this Derby may well turn into a jock's race instead of all this finesse concerning appropriate conditioning.

I'd figured Krigger could carry out simple instructions.  If something untoward happened I was having serious doubts during the post parade concerning Golden Cents and Krigger's abilities.

2.  The unexpected/expected happened right out of the gate with Palace Malice charging to the lead in Bodemeister type time and Golden Cents rocketing along seemingly out of control in the early stages.  4f in Krigger to his credit finally recognized the suicidal nature of the pace and reigned in his horse. What happened to GC after that who knows.  I'd highly expect injury, bleeding in the humidity.  Respectfully differ with O'Neal that GC failed to fire.  He fired right out of the gate.  What happened after that, doubtful we'll find out.

3. The second most certain thing to happen on Derby day after the sun coming up was the Golden Cents was going to get tag teamed by one of the Plecher horses.  Surprise that it was Cot Campbell's horse (what did they do? Draw straws to see which Plecher horse would do the dirty deed?)  Surprise that it happened right out of the gate.  Surprise it happened that strongly. Surprise that O'neal and Co. seemed so totally unprepared for the maneuver, or, maybe unsurprising, as I consider.

4.  Have a group of Derby horses ever shown less total energy?  That was my impression.  Wondering if it rained all night Friday night on the barn roofs and kept those horses from proper rest?

5.  As to Orb, he managed to get 1.5 minutes of pre derby video coverage here:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts

I refuse to believe that a horse can win the KY Derby in this day and time against this group of talented horses with 4f works..  How did this good performance happen?

First, I personally missed--if u watch Orb's 4/29 4f breeze (above) that Orb, like the Plecher horses also breezed past the wire.  The vid stops at the 7f pole but Orb is still essentially breezing at that point.  Thus, possible that Orb may well have been doing 6f works instead of 4f.  Wtf is happening here with these trainers being allowed to report 4f works and actually doing 6.  Against the rules, and certainly misleading in the PPs.  .

Finally--and obviously Orb is a very good horse, although I'll stick with my pre-Derby observation that he's comparatively slow and therefore eminently beatable by a smart trainer.  I'm fearing already what the soft Woody Stephens style East Coast training is going to do with Orb between races.  Congrats however to the connections for a great Derby!  Good once in awhile to see racing's leaders in the winners circle!