Orb

This looks like a pretty nice horse to me.  What happened? Hindsight easy, as always.

One could see the Lukas karma working all week, and really, all year.  Good horses, confidence, the let's see what happens attitude, training decently by any measure.  And yet, there we have two horses from the same barn using exactly the same methods (documented that Lukas uses same approach without flinching)--Oxbow wins and Will Take Charge never runs a jump.  Inexplicable.

As to Orb, anybody that's had one come out of the gate quickly gains understanding -- it's other than they just give you this stuff.  Some RR thoughts:

1.  McGaughey as a nice though unsophisticated fellow reduced in his explanations to "I never would have thought...."?

2.  Was Orb injured, bled, temporary breathing obstruction?  Where was the horse that looked so up in the post parade and with the nice training?

3.  When Orb made his run up in there near the leaders on the back stretch--I'd swear on a stack of bibles that Rosario, the jock, took back on the reins for 3 or 4 strides And, in further support of this notion--when Orb backs out of it Rosario instead of urging his horse, sits chilly.  Was Rosario thinking there--we're up too close too soon" or did Rosario just fall asleep? I think the latter.

4.  Continuing with #3--my experience in competitive internet chess--you see it over tens of thousands of games, every competitor at all levels has moments of micro-sleep. Attention suddenly wanders followed by that "how could I have done that" moment..  Happened to Rosario possibly when Orb back up, got passed by half the field, and Rosario did nothing.  All in all Orb got a horrific ride in the Preakness. Pinheads.  Every trainer's nightmare.

6. Were Titletown and My Lute the designated tag team both to keep Orb bottled inside and to provide an obstruction up ahead? 

7. In defense of Rosario's actions--when a horse quickly backs up, the thought occurs--injury, self protection.

8.  Seems they lacked any plan to get the horse on the outside where he likes to run. ????

RR views of Preakness week and what got Orb beat--saw a vid of the track about Wednesday from the outside with hoof divets seeming to go half a foot down.  My thought then was "good grief that is a deep track".  As always the deepest is on the inside.  Let's say the connections of Orb handled that reality very questionably from what I saw.  All of the horses on the inside faded out of it though Titletown put up a little more of a fight.  If you've ridden on such a deep track it's like running on skates.  A big and big hoofed horse will have a tough time gaining ground on a speedy smaller hoofed one running on the outside.  The connections should have figured a strategy to cope.

I'd noted before the Derby that Orb lacks speed.  Doubtful Orb is as slow as what showed.  I think the problem was the deep inner track combined with questionable unresponsive race riding and possible injury. I'd have liked to seen the warm up. Orb looked dead as a door nail coming out of the gate.
Some thoughts on Oxbow and the field next post.