In Memory Of A Great Man

Nob Injured

I have to seguay here, unfortunately, to the event of the weekend, when Nob was thrown from the horse and injured his leg. I've referred several times to our problems with our horse Rollin' Rodney in terms of spooking under tack. This has been fairly constant ranging from the innocuous where there horse warily espies some imagined danger ahead but that's the end of it--Nob calls that "looking"--to various antics and panic jumping about. A typical event was such as two weeks ago with Nob routinely galloping along our tree line and when he approached the barn area the horse suddenly without explanation jumped about three feet in the air. Nob jumped off and said that he'd been able to handle the relatively minor-- instead of cataclysmic-- events to date, but "it's coming".

Thereafter we'd kind of, sort of thought the horse was under control as evidenced by the video below showing Heat #1 of a gallop last week. Nob had been mentally rehearsing his bail out action for the expected "big event". In the video, with every front lead hoof strike, Nob would anticipated a possible duck out or worse. The plan is to stay in contact with the barrel of the horse from knee to calf so that the rider is carried with the horse in any change of direction.

The best laid plans of mice and men, as the say, gone agley. Saturday near the end of a very nice workout Nob was happily trotting the horse along albeit in the opposite direction--we we're lengthening volume and wanting to get the horse used to going that direction--when the predicted major incident happened.

The horse was, as is his wont, trotting with his head up in the air. I've noted the difficulty our horse has breathing at the trot. This alone makes him a problematic. You can see this "sky watching" at the trot at the end of the video. Just before the horse hits the trees the head goes up. He breathes normally at the gallop btw.

So, tell us what happened, Mr. Nob. Nob said this one occurred so suddenly that he's unable to break it down step by step. They were in a trot, rider in normal three point stance. Nob had been wary due to the change of direction of this trot, but had trotted about 100 yards and almost reached the turn around point. He had stopped worrying when the event occurred.

The horse in an instant--"instantaneously" as Nob described it--saw something out to the right, dropped his front end propping his front legs straight out in front of him and then exploded to his left at about 90 degrees. Nob lost his knee-calf contact when the horse dropped.

Nob said that all he knew was that one moment he had a horse under him and the next he was suspended in mid air without any horse there. Luckily apparently having lost his left stirrup, Nob bailed out twisting himself counter clock wise which would cause his right leg to exit the right stirrup. Due to the horse's "drop" the distance to the ground was short. Nob was unable to get his hands down to break his fall as he had mentally rehearsed.

Nevertheless Nob said it was a clean and harmless fall, and he was proud of the safe manner in which he'd executed it. Our faithful horse, after jumping out to the left immediately realized there was nothing there to get him, and just stood there 20 yards away from where our rider lay. Then the horse walked right over to Nob. Big Rod is a good fellow if we could get around the problem of spooking.

Nob injured the tendon on the inside of his left thigh. Apparently that leg was jerked sharply with the initial duck out. Nob said the injury will heal quickly. But Sunday he was unable to walk. By Mon. morning he was able to shuffle along, and thought he could get back on in a couple of days.

How far are we going with this horse? I'll avoid overreacting at this point because we have just gotten into our galloping due to weather. But, the incident Saturday was a serious incident. I have never seen a horse that just ducks out without any warning as sharply to the left as this horse has been doing. The maneuver is beyond rider control and thus concerning. We'll see how it goes.

Training: Sat: 2 miles mostly gallop with 4 x 1f spurts probably to about 14.5 sec/f.

Sun. Off. Rider injured.

On To Decisions About "Frequency"

In summary of last post, theoretically the following processes occur within the micro structure of bone during equine speed work:

compaction of mineral lattice at the atomic level

rearrangement of bone glue proteins

adherence of fibrils and fibril arrays with their neighbors

alignment of fibrils, fibril arrays, osteons, etc. in certain optimal directions

After the speed work presumably a "bounce back" effect operates that would in an unknown period of time restore the structures to the pre-work state of things, and also additional processes might operate such as:

production of additional bone glue proteins to fill in nano spaces caused by rearrangement

speed up of calcification/ossification/cell repair due to heat build up and dilation of circulatory structures

All of this has been extensively outline on this blog over too long a period of time in an effort to document the final conclusions yet to be made.

These "processes" I believe indicate that similar to muscle cells bone cells are subject to change and plasticity although in bone cells everything works at glacial pace whereas in muscle cells significant changes occur with each bout of exercise.

With respect to bone cells, thus, each of the processes described will be only marginally into their work with each day of exercise, and this is where the theory enters that in order to continue these processes to achieve stronger bone subsequent exercise is necessary.

This all raises the question as to the next speed work--how far, how fast, and how often is necessary.

How far and fast in minimum terms have been answered--4f at 12.5 sec./f, and now I will attempt to nail down, again in minimum terms of what is necessary, the question of "frequency".

Training: Happiness prevails at the farm with 5 straight days of "dry", which is almost unheard of these days. Breezing, or more accurately breeze prep begins this evening. Our first goal is to make the horse like his work. We believe he'll come to hand very quickly due to the riderless work we've been able to do through the rain.

Wed. 6/23: 1.5 M mostly gallop, fastest in about 20 sec/f.

Thurs. 6/24: 1.7 M mostly gallop. Nob indeed achieved several faster spurts than the prior video, probably in the :16-:17 range.

Fri. June 25: Off

Farm Vids

Neighbor drops by and takes some vids for us on 6/23. Sound can be heard clicking on speaker and increasing the volume.

Mr. Nob tried to get a little more speed for the final shot--1f at 20sec/f--but says he got only puzzlement from the horse, lol. We'll see were we are in 30 days. Nob has been trying to get our fellow under control, and, as the shot indicates, hopefully we're about there.

xxx

More Conclusions

What happens within the micro structure of bone during equine speed work, and after? Several logical possibilities:

1. Mineral lattices at the atomic level crunch together under pressure and thereafter, post race, "bounce back" inertia restores original shape of the lattice within a certain (unknown) period of time. It is surmised that if another speed work is done within a certain limited period that bounce back might eventually be over born and you have a denser, stronger lattice. This idea would apply particularly to mature mineralized structures.

2. During speed work bone glue proteins that fill up nano spaces between bone collagen fibrils "rearrange" their positions by being slung to one or the other end of the spaces. Post work these materials, because they have been compacted, leave empty spaces between fibrils that might subsequently be filled in by additional materials. Additional bone glue will provide stronger buttressing of the fibrils and stronger "sacrificial bonds" which hold the fibrils together under pressure. Again, timely subsequent speed work might reinforce this process.

3. The role of calcification/mineralization/ossification of the fibrils is unclear, but the possibility exists that during speed work mineral fibrils are pressed together--they "adhere" to adjoining fibrils. This is referred to as the "adherence and bounce back of fibrils and fibril arrays". Again, post race, there is a bounce back effect that might be overborn by subsequent timely speed work. Increased activity within the fibrils might also accelerate the process of calcification particularly of "adhered" fibrils!

4. Optimal alignment of fibrils within arrays, the arrays themselves and osteons. The idea is that the pressure of exercise will affect the orientation of the fibrils within the arrays in directions that increase overall strength of bone. The bounce back effect will be over born by timely subsequent speed work. As I consider the subject more and more, this "alignment" phenomenon might be the most important factor in bone strength/fracture resistance.

This is an "off the top of the head" summary of prior posts. The 64 thousand dollar question as to what needs to be done to get and maintain these effects, next.

Training:

Sun. 6/20: 1.5 miles mostly slow gallop.

Mon. 6/21: 7-8 min. riderless play with spurts + 1.5 miles gallop a little faster here and there.

Tues. 6/22: Light riderless speed work limited so we may go right on with galloping tomorrow--7-8 min of 85-90% 1f spurts, mostly play.

Tues. Misc.

Busy week. Training report: Sun 6/20: despite rain grass is thick enough to gallop. 1.5 mi. mostly gallop. Mon. 6/21: We get our running paddock back from the mud: Riderless play with spurts for 7-8 min + 1.5 mi. mostly gallop. Sped this up from very slow to a little faster as Nob gets more confidence in our runaway freight train of a horse.

Training (Weather) Report

Two storms through KC yesterday. MO river now up to edge of the banks. Since 4/22, radar image of that day at left, Accuweather shows 29 of 57 days of rain in KC. May was wiped out for training, and in June, so far, 9 days of 20 of rain and more than 8 inches at the farm.

Constant water and mud make serious training impossible, and also reduce our enjoyment of the farm itself. Should this continue, and next 30 days of weather will tell the story, to race in 2010, I'll need to go elsewhere or send the horse elsewhere. But, postpone that discussion till mid-July. We'll see how the weather goes. At that time I'll figure where we are.

The encouraging thing this year has been our four year old horse showing a little ability. I'll agree those Arch horses certainly are powerful individuals with very good bone. Rollin' Rodney has been a pleasure to work with despite bad weather. Bone posts conclude here soon, and then on to performance with hopes of documenting that with our horse.

Training:

Fri. June 19: 1.2 miles mostly slow gallop + 10 min. of short riderless spurts.

Sat. June 20: Off. Rain.

More Conclusions

What may occur in bone during speed work and afterward involves so many factors, I am thinking the best that can be done is to look at two adjoining fibrils or a fibril array. For this I go back to the Max Planck illustrations.
The image at left shows the outer surface of a single fibril. The black banding are the calcium blobs on the outer skin of a mature fibril. May we think when two are pressed together there will be some tendency to "adhere" merely base on physical layout. There's chemistry also and how these outer materials would react together in continual squeeze and release mode over the speed work, and then again how both structure and chemistry would resist inertial forces to return to normal post race.
A hypothetical fibril array is shown at left. The green fibrils in the "C" indicate the nano spacing between fibrils which is almost infinitely small. Yet, you can see theoretical spacing of the circular fibrils on the very left. If we take our hand and squeeze and release repeatedly we can consider what might occur.

However, looking at the "level 4" image above we also take note that "fibril array patters" can take many shapes, and therefore, quite obviously, squeezing is going to have different effects depending on the initial shape and constitution of the particular array.

Next post I will outline "all" of the processes that I believe are involved that result from speed work, and note here that I am concluding possibly the foremost of these is "rearrangement" of the micro structures into ad hoc formations that will increase bone strength. Correct training will "align" the micro structures in certain directions for optimal fracture resistance.

Training:

Wed. June 16: Off. Heavy rain.

Thurs. June 17: A day of wind and sun combine with thick grass allow us to take the horse around twice. The last heat was about 50% gallop on good behavior. With deer jumping all about in the high grass, good behavior is what it's all about at the moment with our freakball. Good to finally have a good enough surface to gallop on.

Some Conclusions

Bone fibrils at speed might be squeezed together, pulled apart, or stay put depending on a number of variables.

Skepticism may pose questions of whistling in the wind on "squeezing" of fibrils. How can we really know since we're without a jot of research? In answer and in terms of bone research I'd say that large animals present unique situations with regard to bone. Certainly there has been zero work done on this sort of thing, and all we have available is educated guess work with available info.

In this regard I think it logical and probable that bone fibrils, within the mechanics of their structure are squeezed together under pressure. Moreover, based on their chemical/physical qualities previously outlined, it is further probable that after repeated squeezes that bounce back inertia will gradually subside or be completely overcome and that at least some fibrils will remain in a state of "adherence"--sticking together--post race.

After the race we then follow these adhered fibrils thither. What happens thereafter e.g. 1 hr. post race, 2 hrs. 24 hrs. two days, 3 days, and so on?

The answer to this question involves quite a bit. We have the immediate consideration of the physics and chemistry of possible fibril adherence, but we also have the numerous other effects of speed work on bones previously covered on the blog, such as effects on bone glue and compaction of micro structures. Regardless of various processes going on, there probably is one common denominator post race--this is the tendency of everything to return back to normal.

The conclusion then is that excepting those structures and bone materials completely overborne during the race, everything else will revert back to it's pre-race state. But, how long does this take, and, what happens if "in process" we go out and do another breeze?

Training:

Wed. June 16: day starts out sunny with me thinking June 17, 2010 we'll begin our galloping at last. Not to be. At 6 pm I almost drown running from car to house. Its raining cats and dogs. 9of 16 days in June we've had rain according to Accuweather, 5 inches for half a month, though it's been at least 2 inches more than that at the farm. And, I'm starting to worry. Little changes in the forecasts. Constant rain around here.

Bone Post

So, do bone fibrils in the cannon bone at speed get pressed together, pulled apart, does any of this matter? I think so. I'd started a detailed consideration of this here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2010/04/theories.html

and in answer to the "theories" presented was thinking we might reach some conclusions on actual impact of speed work on bone fibrils by breaking down what actually occurs in the stride. I've done this somewhat in the two prior posts, but what conclusions?

If we did the science possibly we'd trace an individual impulse of force perhaps emanating from the original hoof strike, follow this on up the leg, stop at each point and measure the effect on structures as it goes, consider what occurs when this meets the other forces such as weight coming down from above and muscles pulling through the stride.

In such a process certainly we'd find that the forces generated during speed work affect structures based on what they are, where they are located, and their particular condition at the time of this particular work. Can we make any generalizations?

Initially we could identify those parts of the leg receiving max force compared to those relatively unaffected. E.g. I'd think one point of max force would be the outer parts of the cannon bones that we call the shins. This area possibly is most affected by the weight of the horse and the force of the stride, and in any horse is a significant area of concern.

Other such areas would be the carpal bones of the knees, and certainly the sesamoids. The long pastern bone is another area of concern particularly with regard to forces that twist. The lowercondylar aspect of the cannon bone is a problem merely because trabecular bone in that area is so much weaker by its construction than the hard cortical bone that makes up the rest of the cannon.

But we begin by considering merely two adjoining fibrils. Then two adjoining osteons. Can there be any doubt that the squeeze and release pressures will first push together followed by a bounce back effect on release? In answer--yes, there is "some" doubt because if those fibrils, and, if that structure, is stout enough, it might fail to move at all, and will only go into motion at time it is overborne. With this we may conclude that many of the fibrils, fibril arrays, osteons, and so on will never be affected at all or be minimally effected due to combos of their location and strength!!!

We may also suppose that other fibrils, etc. will be dramatically affect precisely due to their location and structure, and by this we may conclude that those fibrils unaffected or minimally affected are already strong enough, and those with greater affects might be the exact locations where fractures would develop. These vulnerable fibrils are the areas of concern.

Training:

Tues. 6/15: The one redeeming quality about our constant rain--very thick grass--through which we were able to motor this eve despite standing water from 4 days of rain. 90% trot with a few strides of gallop, and stopping to walk occasionally when the horse sank too far into the ground. We went twice around. 4 days of weather has stopped serious training once again, but, at least we were able to get on and do some work!

Bone Post

Arch colt wins Saturday's Stephen Foster, impressively. We are ok with this! Our boy, momma by Arch(at left), hopefully paying attention since we have a family resemblance!

How do concussive forces affect individual bone cells? I can think of three forces working during speed work: concussion from the ground, the weight of jock and horse from above, and the huge muscular forces operating with the animal pulling through its stride. May we imagine these forces coalescing and swirling withing the structures and possibly a Max Planck equation from the field of materials physics explaining various force vectors impacting individual cells?

For present purpose I was considering that under pressure of equine speed work nano spaces that separate individual bone fibrils, fibril arrays, and even the larger osteonal structures would be pressed together and/or pulled apart by these forces in the repeated squeeze and release pattern of the strides.

We know these bone fibrils have a certain chemical physical nature that under increases in pressure, temperature, fluid flow, etc. might tend to adherence with each other and thus reduction in nano spacing between them. Simultaneously we consider that if two fibrils are squeezed together in a single stride on conclusion of that stride there will be a bounce back effect to original position. We are supposing that the bounce back will begin to diminish after a certain number of strides, and that if we kept on striding to infinity, at some point the two fibrils would remain together instead of bouncing back.

The idea above would be that instead of two separate fibrils there would finally be just one glued together structure that would be denser/stronger than the original. We discovered in the Max Planck articles highlighted earlier in the year that for increased strength in bone density is good, increased mineralization is good!

The above is my own personal supposition after a logical look at what might be happening. I need now consider a little further to verify and also to make some conclusions about practical effect.

Training:

Fri. June 11: Normal off day on which we should have gone, given the coming weather.

Sat. June 12: Several hours of steady rain, then some sun. The horse was trot-walked two times around. Best we could do.

Sun: June 13: after another 1/2 inch of rain this morning the horse was tacked and walk-trotted for about 10 min on very wet pasture. Nob forgot his whip and finally gave up as he could never get the horse out of dodging and shaking flies. The weather is doing us in, again.

Mon. June 14: Off. More rain. Four rain days in a row. RR in F it mode.

Bone Post

Back to weighty questions, including bones, and then I stumble into this relevant gem, set up as usual by this author with numerous brilliant lines:

Hamlet: Might the noble dust of Alexander(the Great) be stopping a bung hole.

Horatio: "Twer to consider too curiously to consider so"

Blogging gone amuck possibly is considering a subject "too curiously" but regarding "fracture resistance, I'll try to soldier on.

A horse motoring down the track during a race focuses on the competition oblivious completely to the tremendous forces pinging into its legs with every audible hoof strike at great risk to itself. Perhaps you have stood by the 1/8th pole and listened to them, particularly on a day the track might have been fast. Even back in the day before I owned a horse and was there at Ak Sar Ben in mid summer trying to make a buck I wondered how the horses were standing up to what I was hearing as they galloped by. In my handicapping days I figured the trainers knew what they were doing. Ha.

So we consider what's happening in terms of physiology with the crackles of concussive force that occur as underside of each hoof at the heel just below the bulbs of the heel at the widest point of the frog strikes ground surface with all the force the horse can muster, and then in a millisecond the underside of the hoof twists slightly, rotates forward on its axis, and pushes off at the toe airborne into it's next stride.

The point of maximum impact likely occurs with the initial "hit" at the heel. This sends concussive shock waves straight up through the hoof, to pastern, fetlock, condylar process of the cannon, the length of the cannon itself, and on up to the knee. The hoof has hit, turned over, left ground, a moment of reprieve till the next hit, and all repeated 150-240 times during the course of the racing distance.

So, precisely how do these quick and repeated applications of considerable force, buffered as they go up the leg, affect the structure of the leg both at the macro and micro/nano structure level? This has been the focus of the blog for a couple of years--attempting to determine what happens for purpose of developing an exercise program that will develop fracture resistance (FR).

And so, next post, at risk of considering things too curiously, I can get back and focus on this subject.

Training:

Sat: June 12: got up this morning to get in the w/o before predicted rains. Walked out the door there it comes down the minute I get outside---at least another inch. Day is yet to be over and might get something in tonight.

Fri: June 11: off.

Thurs. June 10: 1.2m trot-gallop--50% fairly strong gallop + 5 x 4f riderless in mud at 85% speed with full recovery between heats.

Wed. June 9: 1.5m trot-slow gallop. 1/3 was gallop.

Fri. Misc.

Training:

Tues. 6/7 Off. Rain 1.5 inches.

Wed. 6/8 1.5 miles trot-gallop. More than 1/3 gallop. One "look" but no "spook" today. Progress!

Thurs. 6/9: 1.2 miles trot-gallop with about 1/2 of it strong gallop. No spook! Cutting high grass away back from the track seems to have helped the horse's demeanor. + 5 x 4f riderless in the mud at 85% speed, though last was slower. Strong workout over difficult ground conditions! More rain on the way.

Wed. Misc.

Training:

Sun. 6/6: 1.5 miles trot-canter--cantered about 1/3 of distance with horse ducking and jiving. Nob says "nothing serious yet". It's coming, though. We've realized the horse is spooking at high grass. Hope to solve that problem soon. I am a hesitant mower since this destroys habitat.

Mon. 6/7: 1.2 miles trot-gallop with about 1/3 of distance as gallop + 4 riderless 3f spurts in paddock at full speed. Could have done more but better too little than too much as this was a significant bump up. Actually felt like race training again. Hard w/o that horse performed enthusiastically.

Tues. 6/8: Off 1.5 inches rain.

Belmont Results

A seemingly decent fellow and mostly highly questionable trainer wins the Belmont. Congrats to Mott for a superior training job with Drosselmeyer, and also to Winstar in the fairly spectacular achievement of winning two legs of the TC with different horses. How often has that been done?

The struggling First Dude anchored things all the way around and made this interesting race visually. All others excepting Stay Put, who put in a brief spurt, merely maintained position on what looked to me like a deep and difficult racing surface. Mike Smith never extended his mount except in the exact moment when it counted and gets the credit for a very superior ride.

In a last flurried moment of video watching that I posted 10 MTP, I'd pegged First Dude as the talent in this race, but all the things you identify in that video and the PPs came to pass. You might ask where was the fireball First Dude from the Preakness. This weakly trained horse--and I'll differ respectfully with Tom Durkin's call on this--was galloping weakly from the get go his head bobbing too low with every stride. Unlike Big Brown, First Dude was never trained to carry the field along a little faster than its aerobic steady state, and so all the other horses were fairly easily able to keep pace.

First Dude suffered from one other problem that is visible in all his races. The horse changes leads into the stretch way too early--in this race it was 2-3 strides before the rest of the field. This becomes very telling in terms of right lead leg fatigue late in the stretch run. The jock, Dominguez seemed completely oblivious as obviously is the trainer. But I already dissed Dale Romans in my Friday post. This horse would be all world under Nafzger.

How did I do with my handicapping? I pulled this one out of my jock strap at the last minute by putting $2.00 on First Dude to show. The post on Friday identified Drosselmyer, Game One Dude and Make Music For Me as the best trained horses. Since MMFM lost a shoe--and what's with that? How does that happen? I'm unable to positively say this would never happen to me, but it would be highly unlikely--his performance is understandable. Otherwise, the conditioning handicapping played fairly true.

So, what of Fly Down? Very decent horse that overcomes Zito handling in this race. It'll never last, and that's guaranteed. A lightly hoofed talented horse is going to have an advantage on that deep track, and big hoofed horses such as Stately Victor and First Dude will struggle.

With Ice Box the hints for that performance were all over the place. Every video of Ice Box shows the horse in a hobby horse gallop, with an idiot exercise rider that never gives the horse his head and was constantly on the wrong lead. This occurs when you have a trainer who is more used car salesman than conditioner. How can you expect a horse to run when you hardly ever let the horse run in practice?

Uptown's Charlies' loss of saddle pad. Is this also a first? A video of McGlaughlin in the paddock would be interesting.

Bill Mott has gone into big race after big race with powder puff training. He ratchetted up with Drosselmeyer, and for once the best trained horse did win! Will watch Mott's future training with interest!

Training:

Thurs. lost the tack work due to applying lost shoe. Got in 30f riderless in the mud with frequent spurts.

Fri. June 4: 1.25 mile trot with a few strides of gallop. Much spooking. Better than Wed though! We then did 5 or 6 riderless 3f spurts. Very tough w/o!

Sat. June 5: Off

Belmont Day

(Edit selections at 10 MTP. I've just watched 30 min of video on my Twin Spires Account. What mostly sticks out is First Dude. 1. He's grown substantially since his early year races. 2. He's improved steadily almost with each and every race. 3. They shifted strategy in the Preakness from running back at 3rd or 4th to going to the lead and avoiding traffic where this great big horse was constantly compromised. 4. As you'd expect from the training, the horse's action freezes in the stretch. This horse has substantial talent and is stands out on the vids. Will I select him to win? Again, injury is a fear, but, this horse is on top of his game. He should take this crowd, possibly with ease--the other thing that shows on the vids is that Game on Dude probably is a Grade II horse. Based on intuition for what it's worth, have to put my $2.00 on First Dude to win. Going to the farm now, and watch later.)

Make Music For Me will be one of those running at the end. There's a NY Times piece this morning featuring Alexis Barba and her training roots that go back to Eddie Gregson and Charlie Whittingham.

So, is she a Whittingham style trainer? Or, is she a typical woman trainer, more groomer than conditioner? The PPs indicate somewhere in between. MMFM has the most speed work in this field-- since March 1, 13 speed works. That's 13 in 97 days or 1 speed work every 7.5 days, which is decent.

But, ok, she does the speed work, does she also do the slow galloping? Or does she, as every other female trainer I've ever witnessed, give a breeze and then give 4 days off because she thinks the horse is tired? With Barba, after listening to her interviews, and guessing, it's probably somewhere in between with her. The red flag is that there's little to think this lady is a rigorous conditioning type trainer al la Whittingham based on the PPs, nor anything in her record to indicate such.

Thus, I'd think Ms. Barba has done a decent job with this horse, but, avoid getting overwhelmed by her training. Wild guess that the horse likely will be in there but odds are he'll be run down due specifically to lack of detail. The lady is 57 years old training horses. I wish her the best of luck!

So, who will run down MMFM? This is a head scratcher. You put together 12 conventional trainers one of 'em has got to win. The horse with the least number of works since March 1 is First Dude with 8. But, most of those have been squeezed in of late. This sort of work schedule bodes to recent conditioning and regrettably also to injury in such a big horse. I'm eliminating FD.

Given the similarities in training, probably we should look to talent here. Fly Down's record is an eye catcher. Drosselmeyer's is superior, as is Ice Box of late. Stately Victor is a man among boys. Can we trust Michael Maker to train? Probably not. Margolis's horse? Throw out because it's Margolis, and, pretty much the same with Interactif.

I also like to look at whose riding in terms of mount selection. Garrett Gomez on Spangled Star trained by Dutrow. Hmmm. Dutrow's Spangled Star has 9 works since April 1 when he arrived in that barn. Seems another that should be running at the end. I noticed Mike Smith on Drosselmeyer.

That's were I'll stop with this superficial look. I will make an intuitive selection. I think several inferior horses will be running at the end along with some of the talented horses. The talent:

Ice Box--track is made for a lightly built horse like this.

Fly Down

Stately Victor

First Dude, but I've eliminated him.

The runners at the end:

Spangled Star

MMFM

Drosselmeyer

Game On Dude

I am forced to look at video of the Dwyer (doing it). Weak race. Stopped horses and Fly Down. Drosselmeyer unimpressive. I am forced to look at the Lone Star Derby.

(doing it). Game On Dude is going to run today. Did Baffert get him to Belmont on time? Probably not.

Nevertheless, and taking a flyer on this. Order of finish: Game On Dude, Stately Victor, MMFM.

Belmont I

Belmont stacks up as an interesting race. A field of decent horses as noted in the many comments.

Having failed to follow these three year olds closely, I'll merely take a stab at some handicapping based on perceived physical condition, as surely, in a 1.5 mile race conditioning should be a significant factor. And, per usual, we need consider whether talented but lesser trained colts might overcome questionable handling as in the case of First Dude, Icebox, Fly Down, and Stately Victor.

My effort of the moment involves identifying the horses with superior conditioning as shown in the PPs. This year we're without Tim Ritcheys or Nafzgers or even S. Asmussens. These are all conventional trainers including several of the soft training east coast type!

Thus:

1. First eliminate horses whose last published work ocurred before May 30. The assumption here--for minimal conditioning the breeze needs to be 7 days on in. If the last speed work is more than 7 days out the horse should be fairly severely compromised in a race of this length, and a little speed work down the lane in its slow galloping will have little effect--or so the thinking goes!

Thus throw out: Dave In Dixie although you have to fear Sadler. This horse was entered as a lark probably at the instruction of the owner. Uptowncharleybrown. McGlaughlin is one of those east coast trainers referred to. I've noted in the past there's a little more to him than meets the eye in the PPs, but, very little more. Again, probably just an owner throw in. Ice Box--a talented colt with an idiot for a trainer, but, we shall see. I consider it an injustice to horse racing whenever Zito wins a major race for I know him and his deficiencies and stupidity by personal close up observation. Hopefully the Zito horses make it through without breaking their legs. First Dude--Another to be victimized by a fellow I have previously pegged as a training idiot. Too bad for First Dude looks to have all the potential. Interactif by Pletcher--should see a game little horse using up what he's got from his training in the first mile or so.

On this basis then--throwing out those whose last breeze is more than 7 days out, we eliminate more than 1/2 the field Will see how this broad and general observation plays out in the race as a handicapping tool.

2. Take a look at those remaining that have a particularly logical work schedule. Note that I have declined to take a look in this mode of the prior throw outs above. I might take a closer look at them in terms of a well conceived program in the morning. The following horses, relative to the field, have superior programs as shown by PPs: Make Music For Me., Drosselmeyer, and Baffert's Game on Dude. These colts minimally should be running all the way around (instead of stopping at the quarter pole), and thus I'd hate to omit them from any serious exotic bet. As an interesting aside is Drosselmeyer, the Distorted Humor colt bought for $600,000 by Winstar at KE fall yearling sale a e.g. of the shenanigans that go on there, since they stand Distorted Humor, i.e. do the ridiculous prices paid for some of these colts reflect a true purchase?

Hoping for time to take a closer look in the morning, and then make some selections. I'm having trouble at the moment ignoring the talents of First Dude and Stately Victor.

Training:

Tues. 6/2: Normal off day. Rained.

Wed. 6/3 1.5 miles of walk-trot around the newly cut track with a spooky horse. Shys at every bird that flys up..

Thurs. 6/4: Mud from 1.25 inch rain Tues about half dried.. about 8 pm we start and voila, missing front shoe. By the time shoe is tacked back on its near dark and we get in only a 30f riderless work with numerous spurts as fast as they could go in slippery mud.

Wed. Misc.

The 1966 Allis Chalmers is back up and running, and cutting our turf course. And, slightly more entertaining than watching paint dry, there's a mowing video that follows. Now, good weather and our horse can gallop on it.

Horses were off on 6/2. Start again tonight after 3 hours of steady rain this morning.

Mon. Misc.

The bone post should appear shortly. I'll take note of the the exercise rider at Philadelphia Park who lost his balance Sunday and fell off the horse. But, in the process, one foot was caught in a stirrup and he was dragged dangling by one leg down the track apparently upside down, and he was killed. What happened to this fellow would be every rider's worst nightmare ranking right in there with falling and having the horse land on top of you. And, it's so dammed unnecessary!

R.I.P. to the rider, whoever he was. We know and fully consider the risks every time we throw the leg up. "No Fear", as Mike Smith has stamped on his exercise helmet in that Mandela DVD. This one has me again considering safety stirrups that release, such as these clumsy contraptions are available.. I've always avoided them because they add about 2.5 lbs to my rider weight whereas my plastic stirrups weigh a few ounces. But, thinking about this, and I've considered it plenty, how easily your foot can get caught, oh my...and also how pissed I am that the stirrup manufacturers continue to fail to make a true racing safety stirrup that would have prevented this death.

Training:

Sat. 5/29: 30f intermittent riderless which marks the end of significant riderless work providing the weather holds. We'll do a few riderless bursts every three or 4 days that will qualify as speed work till we can get the galloping going. The horse was then trot-walked for about 10 min. still spooking at everything and a few strides of gallop.

Sun. 5/30: 15 min walk-trot-and a few strides of gallop. Thunder, lightening but the rain held off we were unable to do much galloping with our spook ball.

Mon. 5/31: Horses were sent on several riderless spurts of speed of about 1-2 f each. Probably 5 in all. Then 15 min walk, trot, gallop. Was almost dark for the tack work, and this restricted the galloping on spook ball Rod.