Eating The Crow

Eating crow would be defined as making a serious error and acknowledging it humbly. Congratulations to Kiaran McGlaughlin and his great horse!!!

The Nice Folks At The Track

When I first got into horse racing in our area in the mid-eighties there were a lot of blockheads and basic jack asses on the backstretch. And, this would be human asses instead of horses, mean, stupid people with multiple personality problems--not everybody, but, enough of them to make you uncomfortable.

I spent a little time in my early years wondering what sort of person would hire what I was seeing to train animals, and how some of these owners possibly would survive in the sport. With the advent of the three new midwest tracks in Des Moines, KC, and Oklahoma City, we were getting people on the backstretch who viewed horses as a commodity and racing as something to be exploited.

As the years passed indeed most of these sorts were evicted from the game, some forcibly, some went broke, and others just quit for one reason or other. I got a pretty good laugh a year ago when rich oilman former big shot and Oaklawn Park trainer Mr. X was denied his 20 stalls because he'd finally gotten under the skin of even the management, and was then relegated beside me to the ship in barn.

By the mid-nineties I began to notice a change in the atmosphere at our tracks. All of the sudden, it seemed, more and more people were "nice". As more time passed just about everybody you'd meet was that way.

I remember my seminal moment in this at Lincoln State Fair Racetrack in Lincoln, Nebraska in 1999. I was noticing all of the trainers and owners and track people, men and women, were the nicest, kindest, most helpful people. Nobody could afford worker's comp, so the backstretch was becoming a family affair, with kids, uncles and everybody helping out. People were visibily hanging together in this tough sport.

My time in Lincoln was such a sharp transition for me from the basic AHs I'd run into at the Kentucky Horse Center in Lexington the year before. And, to my pleasant surprise, the Lincoln experience was as we transitioned into the 2000s becoming the rule at all the tracks in our area. I was and still am able to talk definitively about the nice folks at the track.

Now, I'm sure any reader is asking, what is the point here? Well......the blog is about to get down to the business of relating injuries to training, which sina qua non relates injuries to trainers. Since a trainer or two occasionally stumbles on here, before starting out on this somewhat delicate subject, I'm sincerely hopeful that discussing training and it's affect on injuries, which is the substance and central element of our sport, can be done professionally without impugning anyone's integrity. I've posted here what I think about the people I'll be writing about, and everyone's methods are up for discussion, including my own.

Today's training: to be posted--i'm checking the forcast...omg.
Today's training: The farm is under water. putting the best face on the state of affairs-- rain 4 days out of 7: the wind is blowing hard enough to dry it out.

Can Kiaran McLaughlin Train?

My personal contempt of this roly poly, personally appealing Irishman as a horse trainer I've expressed repeatedly including several times on the blog. And, yet, unknown. About trainers and training we have incomplete information and draw conclusions from sporadic circumstantial evidence. Does a soft conventional trainer with a talented, successful horse deserve to recognition as a "good" trainer? Well, at times, perhaps.

In McLaughlin we have a fat, stubby, sawed-off non-athlete with some obvious intelligence and apparently multiple health problems in the ridiculous position of training horses for the sheiks. What is a fellow without the knowledge or motivation to take care of himself physically doing training race horses?

McLaughlin's example to me speaks of the state of training racehorses generally. The sport is infused with horse people instead of legitimate coaches, managers, trainers or exercise physiologists. To illustrate the point, how many of these people understand that, yes, it is possible to move a great athletes such as Invasor or Discreet Cat forward by increasing the length and speed of their breezing and galloping. Very few is probably the correct answer, though I'm suspecting we're starting to see this sort of thing from a couple of the noted trainers, including Nafzger, who I notice is giving Street Sense immediate works after his race as opposed to waiting three weeks like most of them.

In the case of McGlaughlin we have a fellow despite having numerous highly touted horses to train has accomplished almost nothing with them until Invasor. We also have the fact that basically Invasor's accomplishment has come in the wake of a very weak crop of older horses last year, and by the standard of most years a substandard field in the Breeder's Cup, as it turned out.

So, I'll be tuning in this weekend for the Dubai Cup. If McGlaughlin wins it, I'm prepared to eat major crow as this race stacks up as one of the better in recent memory. Suspect though the crow will wait for another day, and I look for Premium Tap or one of the non-Arab horses to run by Invasor and Discreet Cat in the stretch.

Today's training:
Wed. 3/28/07: Day 3: 5x2f riderless sprints at less than full speed on hard ground. 10 min under tack.
Thurs. 3/29/07: Day 1: 15 min. walking under tack. The first walk in a circle.
Friday. 3/30/07: Rained out. 4th rain day out of six though the prior rains were light, today a monsoon, and tomorrow too, I guess. terrible for the oldsters we're trying to get ready for the track. for the little guy, he was acting a bit worn, so, ok. and, he really is little. I can see them checking now in May 2008--when did the last 650 lbs horse win the Derby.

Today's Training

3/27/07: Rain out.
3/28/07: Day 3 Burch: 5 x 2f riderless sprints at less than full speed in smaller dirt paddock for concussion. Ten min under tack. One short straight walk under control.
3/29/07: Day 1: 15 min walk under tack. Nob accomplished circles today for the first time. Progress. On the bad news front, I measured the horse. He has shrunk back to 15' 2.5" Size is becoming a concern.

Today's Training

3/26/07: Day 2: Crisp riderless gallop off and on for 10 min. 10 min walk under tack.
3/27/07: Rained out.
3/28/07: Day 3: 5 x 2f riderless sprints at less than full speed in small paddock. 15 min walk under tack. Improvement in tack work though still yet to get to were we were in mid February. This was 4th tack work of the month. At the end Nob did get a 20 yard straight line walk away from the other horses. Small breakthrough as horse pays attention to aids. The real second birthday is today.He looks a little taller, maybe?

Relating Injuries To Training

Just as I was getting on this new subject down goes Ravel with a problem area on the condylar aspect of his cannon bone. Unknown which front leg. For those unfamiliar, the condylar area would be the area where the bottom of the cannon bone meets the fetlock (ankle). It is the larger, more porous area that supports the base of the bone. You may visualize a part of the condylar aspect breaking or disintegrating at speed causing the main cannon bone to displace or slide across the fetlock producing an instantaneous and spiraling catostrophy.

Unknown which goes first, the sesamoid or condylar or that it matters. Either way, after the developing fracture gives way, you might get a change of angle as the leg hits the ground, if you want to replay Barbaro whose just operated on right hind is pictured-- P1, sesamoid and condylar fractures. And then there is the Pine Island-Go For Wand thing where you get a break in the cannon bone itself and the leg snaps. Horrific stuff!

In the case of Ravel, if I read correctly, Pletcher caught the thing before there was a full blown fracture. They apparently found a spot on the X-Rays. While the horse being "off" on this leg gave them a hint, how many trainers would this have passed by? Just a rhetorical question. Nice job by Plecher!

BUT, and this is our quandary, BUT, how does this happen????????????????????

Just today on the Pedigree Forum somebody posted that the current California Horseracing Board Veterinary List has on it an entire back stretch of horses. How's it happen????????????????????????????????????
( note "anonymous" comment on this in comment section, please)

And, here's an even more interesting question. After we determine the ailment, can we find the cure?

3/24/07: Day 3 Burch: 4 x 2f riderless heats :12-:14sec/f approx. speed.
3/25/07: Day 1 Burch: Some slight tendon filling front legs. Ten min walk under tack.
3/26/07: Day 2 Burch: Filling gone, but we're wary. The horse seems a little out of sorts today. Keeping my eye on it. He's getting bullied by all the oldsters now. Gave banamine for possible colic as he's ground pawing. Galloped riderless a little more crisply than I cared to given Day 3 coming tomorrow, off and on for 10 min. Fairly tough w/o. Then Nob and 10 min walk under tack, much more open and away from other horses and big improvement over yesterday, though still balky.

Blogus Interruptus

Amid chaos, confusion, disorder and turmoil, a slight interruption in the RR thought process. Order soon to be restored. Training, however, continues:

Burch Days Three since commencement of training on 3/12/07 after 17 days off due to abscesses:
3/13/07: Day 3: Several 1f riderless near full speed sprints.
3/17/07: Day 3: 3 1f riderless bursts near full speed then jump fence.
3/19/07 Day 3: my description was: several strong fast runs in Astride paddock with oldsters (after light Day 3 two days ago.)
3/21/07 Day 3: 4 1.5f riderless sprints a little slower, but moving.
3/24/07 Day 3: 4 (approx.) 2f riderless sprints in the Astride paddock over soft ground. I considered this the last strengthening work after the layoff. After today, forward training begins. The horse this date was into it. He was put into the Astride Paddock with an older horse who is a self starter. The oldster pretty much led the way to a distance of about 2f for each heat. These are guided pasture springts. The speed varies as the horses burst here and there then slow down. Within each 2f several all out bursts with overall pace maintained in range (estimated) :12-:14 sec/f. A strenuous workout. Too much really and violative of the rule that you always go conservative. Result: slight tendon filling. Skipped in conditioning today from a to c. Bad day for the trainer, but, we'll get away with this one this time.
3/25/07: Tack work only. second time this month for tack work. Since horse is conditioning otherwise for the moment we're unconcerned over the slowness of the breaking process. Horse in a 20 mph wind was giving Nob plenty of trouble, but, walked under tack for about 10 min.

Derby Analysis 2007

I want to seguay occasionally to Derby analysis. That's 2007, instead of 2008. We're getting close. Time to stick the neck out before all the favorite's establish themselves in the coming big races. I'm without a clue as to who'll win the Lane's End tomorrow. I've followed only Hard Spun. Helen Pitts = Woman Trainer. She might win a race at some point, but it will be nothing consistent based on her pre-race comments.

Phew! Maybe it's been since Spend A Buck and company that I've seen a Derby field with this depth and quality. How do we know? This year any set of functioning eyeballs can identify several exceptional horses: Stormello, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Cobalt Blue and the recently departed Ravel, who might have added even more athleticism and speed to a dangerous bunch.

Below this upper echelon, Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Ketchikan, Curlin, Adore The Gold and King Of The Roxy showing plenty. The other contenders I throw out for various reasons. One example: Let's see, according to the Bird Blog, Bird is done breezing in prep for the Illinois Derby. Mind you, McPeek will change his mind on that, but, need more be said?

Considerations:

1. Training and conditioning; the fittest horse or horses. The on going process of filtering out what the trainers are doing is but guess work as to the future. Certain trainers shy away from conditioning after racing begins, and Nafzger is one of those. But, let me observe, last year all the Derby trainers breezed and raced fairly consistently and logically right up to Derby time. We're seeing even more appropriate conditioning this year to the point it's hard to sort them out. Just a few observations: Scat Daddy had a first slow breeze 3/17 after the Fountain of Youth. Is one more breeze enough going into the Florida Derby? Against Stormello, I doubt it.
My opinion, and it's guessing, Stormello's conditioning and racing is a cut above the rest. Pick Stormello here. Predicting Nafzger will figure out, too late, his horses needed another race. Nice conditioning job to date on Street Sense. But, since I know Nafzger lets up and that's just the opposite of what this horse needs, predict Street Sense will be subsumed in the stretch of the Derby.
2. Jockey. This is big, but, I've been doing other things besides handicapping jocks.
3. Talent: Natural speed, stride efficiency (throw out head bobbers like No Biz), stride length, natural stamina and acquiescence. Cobalt Blue and Stormello seem to have such in abundance. The jury is out on Street Sense. He looks smaller as a three year old.
4. Experience: Unless you're Michael Matz training in company every day at Fairhill, this is necessary. I think it takes three races. That would be Plecher, but, we'll see.
5. Intelligence of the trainer: big factor! nutrition, timing of the works, understanding exercise physiology, down to simple things as assuring your horse sleeps the night before the race (amazing how many trainers fail at this.), etc. Any of these trainers a little sharper than the rest? Pletcher, perhaps. He's imipressing me.
6. Genetics, Breeding, Auction Price, Breeder, Owner, everything else: Minor factors, though the background strength and mental make up of the horse may tell in tight situations.

Conclude: Way to close to call except on a hunch. Mine is that Currin will take advantage of Pletcher's Rabbit, King of the Roxy, and train his horse to go on. Stormello, despite lack of racing this year, stands out in both talent and training. I'm going to avoid hedging. Stormello will win the Derby.

One more note: few injuries to date. Applaud Pletcher for catching Ravel's problem before he became another Pine Island. Few injuries indicate good training. Will it last?

Today's Training:
3/21/07 Burch Day 3 several 1f riderless springs in Astride paddock at :13 to :13.5 speed.
3/22/07 Day 1: Off due to weather
3/23/07 Day 2: This is what I like about Burch training. Everything is a mess with 1.5 inches of rain. But, with speed work tomorrow, I can take the day off without too much fretting. Never could do this with Ivers where every missed workout was a mini-disaster. Hopefully we can go fast somewhere tomorrow.

In Horse Racing, Imagine If...

On tomorrow's Blood Horse cover page we have a photo of Mr. and Mrs. Joe Schmo with one arm around each other and their remaining talons held aloft clutching a fist full of thousand dollar bills, with the following caption: "Recent Beulah Park Sale Topping Buyers Turn A Profit"

Then we turn to the full article concerning the Schmo's which includes several large color photos of Joe and Mary and their four purchases from the 2006 sale happily chewing at their green hay nets in their stalls at Aqueduct. The article in fact uses the Schmo's merely as an example of a sudden and exciting new phenomenon hitting racing: owners are actually making money! The new Blood Horse Stats for the year 2006 just past show that 63.2% of all yearling auction buyers for the year 2004 turned a net profit of more than $10,000.00 for the year 2006. Moreover, a full 17% of these buyers earned over $75,000.00 net profit form their racing operations alone.

Indeed, what is the world coming to with a scenario described above.

Well, you surmise, this does require a rather wild imagination. Particularly in view of the discouraging posts of late at the Pedigree Forum where one C.A. Michael and Dray 33 have skillfully argued over which type of sale--yearling or two year old--produces the bigger financial disaster.

Without recounting the stats that have been posted at Pedigree Forum, let's just ask the question whether it is possible for anyone other than those struck by blind, dumb luck to expect auction purchases or any other racehorse to actually earn money. Can I realistically go to Keenland next fall and buy something that will act on my pocket book in other ways than completely depleting it of all reserves?

I'm very much an optimist despite extraordinarily gloomy statistics. I believe you can stay afloat financially in the game of horse racing for a very basic reason that it's fairly easy in this game to be the exception to the rule. Please let me explain.

Almost every horse loses money because they all get hurt, and most of them quickly. Yes, there you have it. It's other than that most horses are unable to run, or race or win. Fact is, most of them, handled correctly (in the present environment) would earn net money. But the truth is, and this is what the stats show, almost every horse loses money, and it hardly takes much off a look at the stats to see that the reason for money losing is injury.

Since I am asserting on this blog that injuries are unnecessary, that your horse can earn money, that you can keep it racing, I first have to deal with the real world statistics which suggest otherwise.

To do this we have to identify the cause of injuries. And, just to open it up, it's such a broad, complex topic I almost hesitate to dive in. The difficulty of relating cause to effect here can perhaps most easily be seen by the obvious that every injury has it's own cause, and that "causation" by definition can involve anything from micro to macro, specific to general, science to philosophy, and numerous other variations.

First question perhaps is, what do we mean in horse racing by the term "injury" and then what are we talking about in terms of "cause".

Today's training:
3/20/07 Day 2 Burch: 10 min. tack walk + 6-7 m riderless slow gallop.
3/21/07 Day 3 Burch: 6-7 riderless sprints at :13.5 (estimated) 1f each in Astride Paddock.
A strengthening workout after layoff.
3/22/07 Day 1 Burch: Off. I'm hesitating even sticking my neck out to look at the rain gage. it will be other than pretty.

Before Moving On, A Short Summary

I'm posting these February photos as my reminder of winter 2007, the first one in 15 years and may the next be in 15.

The bottom photo shows the 75 x75 paddock were the horses exercise riderless and where Art works under tack. The outlines of the track can be seen. The track is covered with typical muddy depressions filled with water or ice.


With the pasture frozen solid, the paddock was all we had for day on day. It was passable by the horses, barely.

Since I'm a bit muted working on 3 hrs. sleep today, I'll just post a brief summary of what I've done on the blog before beginning the next topic.

My next topic, and it's incidentally interesting that Ravel was diagnosed today and is off the Derby trail, is to relate injuries to training. How exactly do the injuries happen?


This is all part of where I've been going with the blog. I started by explaining the training of my new then yearling Art. We're doing Preston Burch type training, or trying to.

Anticipating criticism for our training method, I set out to give the whys and wherefore. Identifying conventional training, producing a fair amount of proof that conventional training is non-competitive and horses in those stables get hurt. And then the qualification that some off the top new-old trainers seem to seguaying away from strict conventional training as I'd identified it.

But, it's one thing to observe and record that horses trained by conventional public trainers get hurt, and completely something else to relate the injuries to their cause. If you've read very carefully you'd note that on the blog I have yet to say that conventional training itself "causes" injuries. I'm about to do that, so stay tuned.

Today's Training:
3/19/07 Rest. RR traveling
3/20/07 Day 2 Burch: 6-7 min riderless in the above paddock. and ten min walking under tack.
3/21/07: Day 3 Burch: Significant day. First time I glanced at the horse and he looks like a horse instead of an overgrown weanling. Art has suddenly, seemingly overnight, morphed into a 15'3" "horse". Fairly impressive looking for $2600.00 purchase price, I must say. Still in process of strengthening after the 17 day layoff. Art was put in the Astride Paddock after the older's breezed, and they ran a little more with Art. Art was hardly into it today on the soft ground (rain), but, he did get probably 6-7 full one furlong spurts, I'm estimating at :13-:13.5 speed. This is our version of the two year old sales works. I held back a little and avoided driving. Worried about the detraining and effect on splint, sesamoid and knees. Have to be careful here all the time.

"Weather Conspiracy": The Smoking Gun

While the blog has taken on something of the form a weather report as this part of the central USA gets belted with system after system, a reader or two may view this as RR bellyaching, exageration, or down right nonsense, maybe a pre-ordained excuse to stumble on the way to the winners circle first Saturday in May, Louisville, KY, 2008.

For anyone possessed of such an erroneous view please glance at the above pictured Accuweather precipitation map for this very day. The little green bullseye sits right over my farm hillariously illustrating what I've been griping about.

Really! This is too much! Just look at that map! How do all those little moisture atoms cruising around the jet stream coalesce in this manner? I've never seen anything like it! I'm really truthfully laughing as I write this. I should be crying. For just as we're revving it up again after the Jan-February weather disaster, here we go again. Three straight days of lightening bolts threatening to wipe out another full week to ten days.

I believe somebody with a current good connection up there in the great beyond has it in for us and is trying to sabotage one of the 2008 competitors. Todd Pletcher maybe. Yup, Pletcher. That's got to be it.

Today's Training:
3/18/07 rested> RR travels>
3/19/07 Day 3 Burch: a quick riderless workout in the Astride Paddock
3/20/07 Day 1 Burch: 6 or 7 min. riderless galloping slow around the small paddock with the Oldsters. Nob walked him under tack for about 10 minutes. Fighting the bit today.

Excuses, Mea Culpa's, Excuses

The fizzing sound would be the air going out of all four tires. But, do last Saturday's RR prognostications- in which I whiffed zero for three -affect me in the least? Please note the usual array of excuses. Let's take 'em one at a time, and thank KH and anonymous for their comments, though that equibase thread failed to come up:

1. Street Sense: Correct, almost. Wonder if I've ever seen a track record achieved in such non-chalant fashion. This was a fairly easy race for Street Sense who just galloped along till the 3f pole then put in a fairly nice 3f run to the wire. The powder puff horses (the power puff trainer's horses) were all done by the 3/16 pole, and Any Given Saturday was pressed to the limit to keep up with Street Sense breezing the final 3f. The race was entertaining, but, I'd avoid putting too much stock in it. Slight miscalculation by RR on this one. Emphasize "slight". They probably needed the 3f run from Street Sense. Any Given Saturday? I'd love to have him. He's that trainable sort that could go on. It'll be interesting how both Pletcher and Nafzger proceed. RR kudos on the preps for this race to both trainers. There's a new-old gang in town.
2. The Rebel: . My qualification on this race, I thought Curlin was the Lukas trainee. I really did. Just from the pre-race mug shot I'd surmised Curlin head and shoulders above the Oaklawn contingent. This race I did call despite my mix up in identifying the trainer. Please note my thoughts on Asmussen and his "last year's" Derby preps below. There may be a little more to Asmussen than meets the eye. Would love to root for Teuflesberg, but the handling is suspect. I place little stock there. Curlin in average fashion beat a field that was done at the 3/16. Nice, nice ride by Alberado.
3. San Felipe: Very impressed with Cobalt Blue even considering the slightly odd action. O'Neil has been identified as a dangerous trainer--part of the new-old gang. This is a strong, fast horse that looks to be tough. nice training job. Text message to Bob Baffert: Bob, you might want to study these new-old guys. Pass it on to Zito and Lukas.

My overall conclusions: Most talented horses: Cobalt Blue, Street Sense, Stormello (look out for him), Scat Daddy, Ravel. Best trained horses: see above, and all others trained by Pletcher and O'Neil.

And how about the Winstar Derby where the whole field including the winner barely made it to the wire!

Conclusions from examining last year's Derby Past Performances--I looked at number of breezes, distance and speed, and races from March 1 to the Derby. Obviously the galloping info is ommitted: Soft trainers: Albertini, McGlaughlin, Holthus, Matz--look at Lawyer Ron's training to explain the performance. This horse was a man amoung boys and ruined by his trainer. Most consistent, logical training performance to produce the fittest horse: Baffert, Asmussen. Barbaro's training is the head scratcher here. Most of the trainers last year were breezing or racing once a week, which I consider interesting. The frequency was appropriate. The length, time, distance, and probably off day galloping frequently was otherwise.

Today's Training: and, let's make it official. the first little tick buddy of 2007 has just been flicked off the RR forearm. This was after the first insect sighting of the season on 2/26/07.

3/17/07: Day 3 Burch aborted due to horse jumping fence. 6-7 min walk under tack.
3/18/07: steam emanates from the RR ears. Stayed up too late Saturday night and got up too late Sun. morn to do the training and keep other commitments. Had to take the German visitors on down the road. The RR personal discipline needs to be tightened considerably if we're going to make the derby.
3/19/07: Day 3 Burch: The horse was placed in the Astride paddock with two oldsters and got in several strong riderless runs. As noted a week ago, the little dude (like a lot of small horses) is quick and fast. He was removed from the paddock after I thought he'd gotten enough work due to the conditioning. Passed on tack work after driving all night which is part of the chain of events caused by the aforementioned discipline problem.

Today's Derby Action

With three Derby prep races on the card today I'll give my little comments for what they are worth. As everyone else, I enjoy the racing action, but I also follow the training and preparation since that is my interest. Let's say that we continue to keep an eye on the competition.

Just yesterday I logged onto the DRF past performance of last year's Derby entrants, and in detail noted the several months pre-race workouts of each contender. I've noted previously on the blog that I'm seeing a different pattern this year than last year and in other previous years in that horses "seemed" to be breezing more frequently. My look yesterday at last year's past performances going into the Derby provided a little more fodder.

Let's first observe what I consider highly regrettable, which is the lack of information published on top horses in training. I'm talking here about breezes and gallops primarily including distance and times. It's other than that this information is unavailable. In fact, publications like Thoroughbred Times have given us breezing information on most of the top Derby contenders.
However, the information the Times provides is inconsistent and ceases at the whim of whoever is responsible for the page. E.g. Stormello's work before the Fountain of Youth is well documented, but, nothing since. Teuflesberg, a major contender, gets a write up but nothing about what he's been doing on the track. And, the Blood Horse is much the same. The point is that since we get only "some" information instead of "all", for anyone interested in the training we're left to piecing it together and guessing about what's omitted. Because of this, as an example, I'm without any idea on the preparation of Teuflesberg since the Southwest stakes. I could pay for DRF pps, but, I'll decline that charge at the moment.

So, where are we today? I just read Carl Nafzger's Blood Horse Transcript. Nothing about the training of Street Sense. Carl seems a smart guy and highly competent as most of the top conventional trainers, but, he is a conventional. This is well documented in his book.

Tampa Bay: Street Sense has received unconventional preparation. The only info directly available is his breezing. But, since I know what Nafzger does from "Traits of a Winner" I can guarantee a lot of appropriate two mile galloping along with the frequent breezing. To date, it appears, Nafzger has done a bang up job. He additionally, imo, has a horse that's a step above the rest in talent. Those being noted, this is a first race after a long layoff. I disbelieve they will really be pressing the horse today. Todd Pletcher will be trying to win this race imo partly to keep his streak alive, but, mostly because the horse Any Given Saturday needs to step up. I believe Pletcher will win it today barring the emergence of an unbelievable talent in Street Sense. The latter is possible, but imo doubtful this would appear just today.

The Rebel: I'm throwing out Teuflesberg due to my prejudice against female trainers (as trainers). Jamie Sanders' spiel right now is the typical you hear from female coaches before their athletes compete. Ms. Sanders says her horse is really into things mentally. n That's great Ms. Sanders, but, what about the physical preparation. As per usual, no word on this from Ms. Sanders. It's a matter of misguided priorities. Since reports on Teuflesberg track works are zilch, that's probably where it's at for this horse, so today, suspect we'll see the Lukas horse step up and win.

San Felipe: My infor too incomplete to hazard a guess. I've seen Cobalt Blue galloping. Something to dislike a little there. But, O'Neil is a great trainer. I go with Baffert's horse here. Baffert steps up.

Today's training:
3/15/07 Day 2: 10-15 min pasture romping on his own while I was retrieving a fence jumper. Unknown how hard he worked.
3/16/07: Off
3/17/07: Day 3 (sort off): This was to be a fast day under Burch training. Stepping it up a little today was planned. Horse was put in the Astride paddock with another horse, and got in a little work, some of it fast, but then jumped the fence again. Decided to call it there. We'll repeat tomorrow. Tack work: Nob walked him under tack for 6 to 7 minutes. Reported we seem to have the turning thing, and stopping and starting down.

Luck Of the Irish

Finally a post on that subject that never escapes me, and St. Pat's a good day for it. Pictured, a pot of Irish gold, and may it one day sit on your mantle piece.

Actually, just for a change I'd like to have a little of the Todd Pletcher karma rub off on my stable. You know what I mean! It's having Circular Quay, Cow town Cat, and Scat Daddy in the same shedrow with Ravel and Any Given Saturday in reserve, each to race next week, against either of a bunch of training idiots or some others that, well, best of luck to you, with horses in less than top form. Nice to run against horses where Doug O'Neill is cogitating post race "well, I should have had him a little tighter (Liquidity). That's the good luck for St. Pat's Day.

But, seriously, what good is anything one observes, writes about, or does with horses unless we take into account the impact of luck. And just to save you having to look up the term on Wikepedia, we're talking here about the unexpected, happenings beyond our control, or the influence of almighty, or whatever. I'd give you a list of my racing luck over the years, but, you already know it's a long list and calamitous. One thing I believe every horse person would agree too, Pletcher included, whatever sort of luck you may expect in horse racing it's certain to operate along the lines of Murphy's Law.

Now, since this is a training blog, please know that I am doing here other than rambling along about St. Patrick's Day, which is a day on which I always recall that great filly at Ak Sar Ben in the mid eighties trained by Herb Riecken, a Dr. Stat chestnut filly named St. Paddy's Day. Wonder whatever happened to St. Paddy's Day, and what she might have produced for Riecken down the road?

In thoroughbred training we do have to factor in the concept of "luck". But, this would be a different sort of luck than would be experienced by your average lay person. We have in horse racing a breed and variety of luck that I've never seen elsewhere in the rest of my existence. It's simply that the most amazing things happen, and they happen all the time.

Would it be possible, for example, to go out (true story) and buy four new tires for your horse trailer for a 17 hour mare trip to Texas, load your mares and their foals on at 7 a.m. the next morning, and walk around the trailer and see one of the new tires as flat... But, then, just as you're changing the tire the skys open and it starts thundering, lightening raining like cows pissing on concrete and foals bouncing off the trailer walls. Those that in such a situation would stoically commence changing the tire without raising a hair getting battered with raindrops the size of machine gun bullets understand racing luck.

In horses, "good luck is what happens when bad luck could have been worse" is the definition of good luck that I've developed over the years. And so, when an untoward event happens in this business, which it will as sure as the sun rises, I'm generally happy, thrilled, ecstatic since we know that whatever it was, it could have been worse.

Training:
3/14/07: Day 1: light tack work.
3/15/07: Day 2: 15 min. riderless slow gallop pasture romping.
3/16/07: Off--we'll commence early tomorrow. giving an extra 12 hrs off to allow final tendon healing after slight heat two days ago. Day 3 speed work in the morning.

RR Misses The Workout

Between a visitor from Germany and office chaos reigning, I've had very little time to be blogging, but, the training continues, even though i missed today's work when one horse jumped the fence toward the street just as Art was starting his work.

3/13/07 Day 3, Burch: multiple riderless heats at speed after the layoff. horse looks good, but, too fast.
3/14/07 Day 1 Burch: reintro of tack work. Horse does well, nice temperament. Mild tendon heat from yesterday.
3/15/07 Day 2 Burch: Taking care with the tendon heat that still is present. Art again placed in Astride paddock after oldsters had done some riderless breezing. The new paddock at 175 x 100 yards is perfect size for driving horses with the whip from the ground. And, the neighbor's mares are right across the street, and so, with two 12 yr. old stallions, unnecessary to stir them up when they go in. They are hepped, and it's been easy to produce riderless races in this paddock. However, today, just after Art entered, up and over the fence went one of the stallions into a deeply wooded area. Art appears to have exercised himself in the 15 min. I spent extracting the oldster from the deep brush. They were all very warm to the touch and still trotting around when we reappeared. This serves as additional strengthening after the 17 day layoff.

Today's Training

I'm running short on time for "serious" blogging. Will get back to Pletcher and Birdbirdistheword in due time. Great that Bird made it through, though.

Today's training:
3/12/07 First day back after 17 day layoff due to abscess: 10 min off and on pasture romp, mostly slow.
3/13/07: Day 3 Burch: Art by himself for the first time in new Astride paddock 100 x 175 yds lined by trees. Thinking he'll do a little more riderless being by himself than with the tired bunch yesterday. Instead, he does several near full speed sprints, on his own, then, ooops, last heat and he's over the fence. And, back to the barn all by himself. Looking flashy and fast over the grass today, quite a change from a few months back.
3/14/07: Day 1 Burch: carrying a little tendon heat from yesterday's too fast off the layoff. We reintroduced the tack and Nob did four fifty foot walks. First tack work in four weeks, and shows nice disposition. Where's the mud and snow? Its all dry for first time since November.

Todd Pletcher and Racing Luck

It's finally starting to look like spring around here, and it's actually possible to imagine some training ahead. We've gone from a sixty day deep freeze almost directly into summer, and, with daylight saving time giving so much more light in our training time, St. Pat's Day around the corner, and all abscesses clearing up, well, can it get any better?

I wanted to comment about the Todd Pletcher phenomenon we're seeing on the Derby trail, and, it is really phenomenal what this trainer has done. I'm unable to remember anything similar.

Of course, it hardly hurts to have good horses supported by big money. However, lots of good horses and money race at this time of year, and so you have to look elsewhere to find reasons for Pletcher's success.

What does he do? By now, based on various record keeping, we know he breezes his horses once a week generally four or five furlongs. Of course, Ken McPeek does that, and we saw last weekend in Louisiana how far that gets you. What you notice about Pletcher's horses is that they seem, unlike the rest of the fields, to be the only one's running at the end. How does this happen?

I think we can extrapolate that the strength down the stretch for Pletcher comes from a couple of things:
1. What the horses do on their off (non-breezing) days--i am surmising long gallops at a crisp pace and at least one two minute lick per week thrown in between the breezes. Has to be. You are unable to get horses as fit as Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat, and Circular Quay without something similar. (Compare this to the off day "loping" that I saw on the Birdbirdistheword Blog.)
2. The racing strategy. Part of beating the training establishment as it presently exists is to develop a training strategy more intelligent than the run of the mill. Unfortunately, Pletcher has beaten me to the punch. Notice what Pletcher's horses do in almost every race: (a) they are not hustled out of the gate or expended early. They all just gallop along until the 6f pole. (b) the acceleration begins with the change of leads into the back stretch and consists of a slow steady acceleration. Simultaneously, they keep the horse competitive by gradually passing horses. When they hit the turn, again, instead of spurting and quickly building up muscle paralyzing lactic acid, they continue a slow acceleration to gain position, and the horse spurts only after it passes the 3/16 pole, where, having avoided expending itself earlier, it has plenty left. Compare this with the usual of coming out fairly quickly then just maintaining position and spurting into the final turn trying to run all the way to the wire.

So, who'd a thunk it, fit races horses combined with a racing strategy consisting of eminent good sense.

Is Todd Pletcher lucky, good, or simply outsmarting a bunch that is hardly all that difficult to overmatch? Pletcher's training has plenty of holes, and we'll see whether the old cagey one presently preparing for Tampa Bay can find them. More on racing luck coming up.

Our training:
3/12/07 We're back in business. This day Art does a run on his own in the new Astride paddock, riderless with the oldsters after they had breezed. The horses exercised themselves for about 15 minutes as expected when little Art was introduced, galloping and cavorting around the 175 by 100 yd soft grass paddock, here chosen for softness due to the bad feet. Nice first day after a 17 day layoff due to abscesses.

The Abscess Saga--The Vet Called In

At left a diagrammed hoof to illustrate our Art's current "condition". The original problem (right front) showed as an abscess fissure to the right of the frog on the bar near the frog apex. Said fissure was treated, drained, and a boot put on with Epsom salt paste and plans for overnight recovery. We had a fissure, after all, but, best laid plans go awry when buckle on boot breaks and boot lost in deep mud. A few curses for "Davis Boots" and then various cotton,vetwrap, duct tape bandages are also lost in the mud, and the present infection develops. We are without stalls.

By 3/7 a new boot arrived.The horse seemed to have a silver dollar size sore area to the right of the frog in the area on the diagram marked "2/3". This area was warm and sore, being located right in front of the seat of corn (just above the black circle on the right). Nob (the farrier) opened up a little area right in the middle of this. But, instead of abscessed fluid we got only blood. Nob additionally searched for a fissure on the white line at the quarter by digging quite deep into this area, but nothing there either.

By March 8 Nob wanted to dig a little channel from the white line into the sore area, and also from the fissure on the bar into the sore area in hope of locating an abscess pocket. The horse foiled this plan by refusing to hold still for the trimming. What to do? Was it time for the vet and anesthesia?

First I checked the "Farrier and Hoofcare Resource Center" which contains a farrier forum participated in by some of the top farriers in the country. I googled "abscess" on the site and got a number of abscess posts over several years, but, the posts showed the farriers with little more clue than Nob as to what to do when we're unable to locate the abscess. The dominant theme here was "don't dig you'll make it worse", a rather ridiculous assumption by a bunch of professional farriers. My take--you either dig and find it, or you've off two months while the unlocated abscess finally resolves itself. Additionally, my experience is that the exposed laminae from digging very quickly keratinise. There's some risk in digging of course, but, imo much less than just leaving the abscess to fester.

Dr. Jackson, my excellent Vet was called in on Friday 3/9. We had to get the horse to hold still. Additionally, the Doc would be less reluctant than Nob to dig into live tissue.

The horse was put under general anesthesia, and I requested Dr. Jackson to first cut a channel from the fissure on the bar into the sore area. This cutting revealed a completely resolved abscess explaining why the area ceased to drain.

Then the doc cut a channel from the white line into the sore area. This time we got only blood and exposure of the digital cushion--the laminae. Conclusion, there was no abscess. Diagnosis, the horse is sore due to inflammation and swelling of the laminae which might have had a number of causes given the history including running on the mud ball stuck in his shoe. The Doc wrapped it (way too much wrap--I removed the Doc's wrap as soon as he left, and applied my own.), left a more cushioned boot, left some antibiotic and bute.

The Doc's visit was really interesting. Once again, while I knew what to do, I had been unable to resolve the situation without assistance. By myself with the aid of bad weather we went from one calamity to the next. The Doc only did what I asked, but, it was that little bit of medical knowledge that ended this. The Doc made the "inflammation" diagnosis and this really explained everything. A couple shots of bute and some antibiotic and he'd be fine. On the morning of 3/12 Nob applied a new shoe, and we should be back in business for tonight's training.

Training 3/11--after Vet's visit on 3/9 we're walking without a limp in boot.

Abscess Report: The Vet Is Called In

The agony of de feet as Tom Ivers used to characterize it, continues for our two year old Amart. We have followed up two weeks of relative inactivity due to weather with another two weeks+ resulting from abscesses to both front feet. And, yes, it's a bummer. RR is hardly what you'd call happy about this revolving course of events that probably causes us to lose a couple months of training by the time we get back to where we were.

Of course, we're in good company. The Cliff's Edge was scratched from the Preakness due to an abscess, Real Quiet visits the Vet Hospital with abscesses in both hind legs, and the worst of all, my thought that it is a stupid abscess in the right hind leg that might really have done in Barbaro.

Any owner of a horse recognizes immediately the severe lameness resulting from the relatively benign hoof infection that we call an abscess. In the case of Barbaro, things were going so well in mid December 06. They then decide to bring in the outside expert to wrap one of the hoofs and things immediately start to go South.

I initially was very wary on Barbaro about the efforts of Scott Morrision DVM in wrapping the foundered leg in late December. But, in retrospect, what really may have been happening, unknown to everybody, is that the lameness developing after Morrison's wrapping in fact was a developing abscess in the right hind. How many times in a normal horse do we have trouble determining which leg is lame? If you look at the videos of Barbaro and the twisted condition of that right hind along with founder in the left hind, a developing lameness in the hinds from an abscess migh have been extraordinarily difficult to pinpoint. Knowing the dynamics of a developing abscess, it makes you even sicker to realize that given the condition of the horse, they simply could not have known what really was happening, and may have made all sorts of incorrect judgments due to the developing but hidden abscess.

Obviously, once they diagnosed abscess in Barbaro, they were unable to locate it. That's the thing about an abscess--if you find it, no problem. If you're unable, then in a sound horse it's a major headache--see Amart--but, in Barbaro, a nightmare and probably near worst case scenario.

I am taking them at their word and that they put the horse down because laminitis began in the fronts. This would be so much better really than that they threw in the towel with the abscess as the final straw. We'll never really know, but, it'll be a puzzler for me for a while.

Well--I got sidetracked. More about our abscess tomorrow, and then I'll conclude on conventional training and injuries, and get to what I really look forward to, which is relating injuries to training.

Today's Training:
Recovering from yesterday's vet visit on abscess. We should be back in business soon. More on this next post.

Training That Gives Pause For Thought

For all the would be Derby trainers out there, yours truly included, how about the training of this guy, Barbaro, for the 2006 Derby?

Going into last year's Derby before I became plugged into racing on the Internet, I knew next to nothing about Michael Matz and his horse except the two race prep and that they then disappeared to a place name Fair Hill somewhere near the Atlantic Ocean. Before the Derby and based on my limited knowledge, which I then believed included powder puff training, I thought Barbaro would be injured along the way. He was, but, I believe now for reasons other than his training, except possibly as it relates to surface.

As the Derby unfolded and since from bits and pieces that I've strung together it became gradually clear that this was a bang up training job, and that whatever they did, it was highly effective. The first indicator to me was the Derby itself. A horse never dominates a field like that without some pretty good work done by it's trainer. While that Derby was hardly a fast performance, it was very strong by an obviously fit racehorse.

Since the Derby I've looked at the pics on the Barbara Livingston website ("Goodbye Barbaro") such as the one above. Yes, Marge, you can tell by looking at the specimen. The above photo shows B galloping under Peter Brett at Churchill, and, again you notice this horse is put together. Such an appearance happens for a reason.

Then there was Steve Haskin's offhand remark in one off his columns about B's "layoff" between the Florida Derby and Ky Derby, a characterization quickly challenged on the Tim Woolley website direct from Fairhill Training Center that Alex (the author) failed to recall a "layoff" and that Barbaro was "in training" in this period. What precisely B was doing, Alex cagely omitted.

But, we can make an educated guess based on what we can see. It is the training between 4/1/06 and the Florida Derby and the 5/6/06 KY Derby that would be the question. If you look at the Florida Derby you'll see B going all the way around at right on :12 sec/f. Well, I have horses that can do that, even while we'd concede that any 1:36 miles is impressive. They did an easy Florida Derby with B, and so, some significant training must have been done after Florida D. to get that Derby performance a month later.

Of course, the Fair Hill work was unpublished, and to my knowlege Matz ain't talking. May I make a surmise, however. I believe the sort of Derby training we're seeing this year, frequent and fast breezes, and staged in such a way to produce logical strengthening and speed began last year with Barbaro. Matz trains at Palm Springs in the winter with all those big trainers, and, I believe the word is out. Coaches, trainers, managers have always been expert copy cats. We're seeing this year a duplication of Barbaro training, and this is what gives RR significant pause for thought.

Why? Well, suddenly these soft conventional trainers seem to be morphing into real trainers and thus beating them no longer becomes a slam dunk. When you take a talented animal such as Ravel or Street Sense or Stormello and actually "train" him instead of converting it into a stall bunny (see Brother Derek last year), then, well, I'll concede, winning the 2008 Derby is going be tough.

Today's training:
The vet came for the abscess. Interesting story, next post.

Something's Happening Here--For What It's Worth

All this blogging on conventional training and I'm rudely interrupted by the unusual preps of this year's Derby prospects. Anybody notice a difference in handling of this year's crop compared to the recent past?

First we have the talented Street Sense breezing every four to six days in a logical progression of gradual strenghtening by the same trainer (Carl Nafzger, pictured) who wrote "Traits of a Winner" which by my memory listed single breezes for Unbridled (between every other day two mile gallops) every two to three weeks.

Then there's my favorite conventional to pick on, Barclay Tagg breezing No Biz both six days and two days out from the race. What has gotten into Barclay lately?

And, good grief, this one takes the cake! The word on the Bird from the Bird blog--at Palm Meadows the Bird breezes regularly every six days, never mind that McPeek seems to think the Derby distance is six furlongs. This would be the same Ken McPeek who in past years breezed once a month, if that.

And, it's pretty much the same with all these Derby contenders. The conventionals are going a little unconventional on us. Suddenly, they all think they're Charlie Wittingham. Again, what the heck's going on?

But, there's more. Are these old eyes playing tricks or in the last year do horses at the upper levels just seem a little more fit than in former years. That long move by Scat Daddy in last week's Fountain of Youth could never be made by an unfit animal. Maybe I'm imagining this, but, I'm seeing fewer dying quails in top tier races and a larger percentage running all the way to the wire.

Todd Pletcher is setting the pace right now, and, though it pains me to write it, this former D.Wayne Lukas soft training protege seems to be producing fit race horses. Is Pletcher training like Lukas or has he learned something?

Conversely, and perhaps notably, much of the old guard soft puff conventional trainers disappear from the scene. Where are Lukas, Baffert, Mott, Zito, McGaughey, et. al. that dominated racing for so many years. They're all still training. Have they been eclipsed by new trainers using more effecting methods or are there other explanations?

What's happening here? Perhaps, as I speculated earlier in the blog, soft conventional training at long last inevitably in the course and flow of competition gives way to tougher training that produces better horses. In that speculation I stated that this would happen, has to, and that it's just a matter of time. Maybe just maybe right at the moment we're in a transition stage in this very process. I'm without any hard evidence, but, the training of this year's Derby prospects gives pause for thought.

The pause for thought? I'll elaborate next post.

Our training:
On 3/6 I was ready to pronounce Art's abscesses healed. Overnight he lost his bandage again, and was limping this morning. He might actually have two abscesses in that one foot. The one near the frog seems resolved, but there's another in the heal area between the bar and hoof wall where we're unable to locate a fissure. When it refuses to fissure, that becomes a problem. I'm waiting for my new rubber boot to arrive, and then we'll figure out something. Right now he's rewrapped with more epsom salt.

Back To The Matter At Hand

What's wrong with this picture? There stands the DEFENDANT with Sir Tristan Antico and Comely Girl who just won the 1988 AJC Sire Produce Stakes at Randwick Racecourse in Sydney. The little runt on the right holding the umbrella would be the legendary T.J. Smith.

Before I was sidetracked by Derby doings, and this year is looking to be really entertaining, Malcom Johnson, an ex-stable rider of Smith's was quoted couple posts back accusing T.J. of playing the numbers game. He weeds out horses with rigorous training and sends the injured one's home because he can. And so Mr. Johnson provides a perfect definition for the numbers game played in the public stable concept.

Now, I happen to greatly admire the training program of T.J. Smith. Later in the blog I plan a large presentation of the method's of Tommie Smith. But, this section is on injuries, and regrettably even the great T.J. played this game. More T.J. and numbers:

"TJ has a reputation as a very hard trainer, THE hardest. He's a butcher. He just trains the hell out of them all and races the survivors." (unknown trainer badmouthing T.J.)

Dave Johnson DVM: (about horses tried out at TJ's) "They come and some of them are only there for a matter of weeks. They go and they seem to disappear off the face of the earth."

Mick Dittman (one of Australia's top jockeys about TJ's training): "Training horses hard, you do seem to go through a lot of horses..."

So, what's missing in the picture--all the horses injured to produce one Comely Girl. Is there a defense for this great trainer? I've considered some possibilities. See if these have any weight with you:

Defense #1: Everybody does it. It's ok. It's racing.
Defense #2: Malcom Johnson is a doleful, back-biting malcontent, slandering hang dog.
Defense #3: Stay with T.J., and you'll make money.
Defense #4: Horses get hurt irregardless. It's assume the risk.

I go back to our mythical auction buyers Mr. and Mrs. Joe Schmo. They might hire T.J. Smith and buck the odds. Myself, my few horses and precious resources, we'll have to find something else other than handling injuries through the numbers game.

Today's training--from bad to worse. Finally we have good weather but no horse. What a comedy of problems. I'm normally well equipped to handling the abscess, and we have the abscess expert in Mr. Nob. This sequence of events since a week ago Friday for Art: abscess right, apply boot and epsom salt paste.

Monday, abscesses left--we have only one boot to fit--think right hopefully ok--has to be in the six inch mud, and put boot on left. buckle breaks on boot so horse loses boot. It won't stay on. But, left seems to be ok by Friday. Have now lost epsom salt paste. A horse ran off with it. By Sunday he's lame again on the right. Take off shoe, and this one's a doozer. Covers whole area of sole from right of frog to hoof wall. By today the whole back one half of sole on the right is spongy to the touch and very sore. There's a big fissure right on the bar (luckily--without a fissure it would be even worse.) Absent the boot, I've tried various combos of vet wrap, duct tape and cotton along with moisted epsom salt. He keeps losing them in the mud. I'm always afraid of a big wrap on the hoof cutting of blood supply. Tonight, since the fissure is on the bar, Nob applied a shoe and we rewrapped. The comedy continued when my top horse preparing for May 1 Eureka started limping with his own abscess. Could it be worse. Of course, and for that we're thankful.

Stormello

That was quite a race for early three year olds in Saturday's Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Based on my "Derby Predictions" post below I'll gladly eat a little crow on Bill Currin and Stormello (pictured).

Actually, I'd figured out the error in my post shortly after it went up when I saw Stormello's works before the race--one in :59 and then a mile in 1:39. Currin is only trainer of the "prospects" to use both fast works and distance works. After I saw that, only remaining question was whether Currin would be one of those idiots that wraps up a horse after the last work before the race and keeps it in its stall. That was unknown, but, has been answered. This horse was superbly conditioned, and Currin seems to have done a super job. Ditto Pletcher, much as it pains me to write that. No Biz looks as it he was indeed unable to overcome B.Tagg training, but, I'll wait another race before a final pronouncement. It may simply be that Tagg is looking at the long haul and going lighter presently. We'll see. Barclay has to prove it to me, from what I read in the Funnycide book.

Training:

More "Abscess" report: This section will be of interest only to me and to anyone that wants to read about what a struggle abscesses can be--a time wasting, energy sapping process to care for them. By Monday the horse had abscesses on both fronts probably resulting in mudballs stuck in the hoofs ( during Friday fast work) causing bruising under the sole. By yesterday, I thought we had both abscesses under control.

Today, the horse is limping again. I have a shoe on the right, and "had" a rubber boot on the left. The buckle on the boot broke two days ago, and by this morning he'd lost the boot completely. But, I quickly realized the problem today was the leg was on the shod hoot, the right leg that had the original abscess. So, shoeing wasted, shoe comes off. We have no other small boots, so i put on a too big ruber boot and put in epsom salt (i lost my jar of epsom paste two days ago), and leave the horse in small paddock to soak while another horse is shod. Older horse jumps fence into this paddock. Art goes craze and immediately loses the too big rubber boot. Oh well. Best laid plans. No soaking while we're shoeing other horse.

When i get to Art I realize the abscess on the right has reformed and is a doozer. It appears to cover on the right side of the hoof from the toe end of the bars near the frog all the way through the quarters and to the heel area. Wide area. Luckily there is an open fissure right near the frog. So, if I had a small boot and paste, could probably get rid of it in two days. I'm without either paste or small boot. Decision made to use cotton and vet wrap. I was out of duct tape also. Need to buy Duct tape, small boot, epsom salt paste. All this is so ridiculous. On top of this we're in deep mud and water all over the place. We are without stalls. Spent two hours on this today. Between the weather, ground conditions, and the abscesses, yes, I've been happier.

More Derby Talk

After yesterday's post I ran into the Stonewall Farms Triple Crown website that comprehensively discusses all the contenders. Really informative site which you can link off Thoroughbred Times. After reading it all all, add to yesterday's post, look out for this guy!

Today's training:
Abcess report: noticed the post stating Art abscessed in both fronts was never posted. This happened Monday. Nob got one right away. The other first showed in lameness Monday, and failing to find it with surface digging, we decided to let it develop for a few days--increases our chances of finding it. A fresh abscess needs time to develop a fissure. If you dig too soon you may never locate it and be off two months as it resolves. That's the danger. Nob retains his reputation as the abscess expert, he found it today and it popped. Should be back in training tomorrow, though we'll see how he does in the boot with Epsom salt overnight. Finished the Astride paddock today. Bigger more expensive job than I expected. But, another training option on the farm now.

Derby Predictions

A few Derby preps this weekend, so, interrupt the posts for some thoughts and what looks like another interesting Derby. I'm really unable to recall the last time there were so many potentially talented horses.

Steve Haskin today describes No Biz Like Show Biz as "man among boys". I finally saw a clip and would agree, and since I've had a couple of those "man among boys" types over the years I'm familiar how the longer stride and stronger more leveraged rear legs can power away from lesser physical specimens. Unable to tell you how many times I saw that happen in the pasture with my Smooth Machine and Gold Brush.

So, the question for No Biz, can he overcome the training of Barclay Tagg? Yes, I did read the Funnycide book and was fairly underwhelmed with the typical weak conventional training indicated by that book.

But, Tagg, like Baffert has to be respected. Tagg over the last 15 years produced a number of very good horses, and, moreover, Barclay may be learning something of late as I was extremely impressed with the performance and appearance of Showing Up in his last race.

Additionally, how characteristic is it of a conventional trainer these days to breeze a horse 4f on Thursday before a Saturday race as No Biz yesterday? You never see that anymore, and so, we congratulate Tagg for the important step of bringing a breeze closer to a race.

And yet, I'd have to have a talk with Barclay. What is he thinking? I'm reasonably sure that B. Tagg, as myself, through much experience knows that maximum recovery from a :12/f breeze takes three days instead of two. Why do this breeze Thursday when it should probably have been done Wednesday for perfect spacing? The only thing I can think of would be this: The breeze was done on Thurs. morning, the race is late Sat. afternoon. If you count the number of hours between breeze and race, then it really is almost three days. So, maybe Barclay is ahead of me here. We will see in the race.

Then there is Stormello, who I really liked in the two year old race against a very fast horse named Principle Secret who has some questionable connections. Throw out what you read about Stormello's pedigree failing to go the Derby Distance. Can we say Funnyside. And, if you look at the pedigree there's plenty of distance in it, and it's combined with speed. Were this horse trained for distance, he'd get it easily.

Unfortunately, it seems in Stormello we have that sort of questionable training and handling that you frequently see from unsteady trainers before the big event. In short, they clutch.

While No Biz was breezing 4f Thur. Stormello was in a little stall on a plane for 16 hours. This was followed apparently by a hard gallop today. Earth to Bill Currin, first, you do not do a hard gallop the day before a race. 2nd, if you're going to ship in from CA to FL had you thought about shipping far enough in advance to give your horse a chance to recover, or, just scratch it. It's a silly plan in the first place. Unknown how Currin trains, but, two things give a clue--1. the weak performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. and 2. a photo of the man himself, a non-athlete couch potato, the sort of trainer that only guess what an athlete requires because they are unable to relate athletic performance with their own experience.

Finally, there's Doug O'Neil, about whom I knew nothing 6 months ago, but, every clip I see and statement out of the man's mouth indicates he understands what "fitness" is and that he knows how to train. Right now, my pick for the Derby--any horse trained by Doug O'Neil, which I'll qualify by saying we should fear the man among boys if Barclay with his lesser methods can keep him sound. A whereisdabird word later about Birdbirdistheword and another "man among boys" named Ravel.

Today's Training:
Abscess report: This week another weather event and we're again in 4 inch deep nearly frozen mud. For Art, little difference, but, I'm starting to seriously worry about the May 1 first race date at Eureka for the oldsters. To refresh: by Sunday Art was showing abscesses on both fronts. By Mon., one had broken through and appeared ok, and the other was in a boot with epsom salt paste. Last night, no limping at all and I was ready to say the our abscess expert Mr. Nob had done another superb job. This morning the horse was limping so badly he could hardly move. Somehow lost the boot over night, the buckle broke. Developing.