2008 Thoughts

Thoughts first coming to mind: horse racing 2008:

--Big Brown, the near perfect specimen.

--Jeff Siegel calling BB's performance in January.

--Ignoring the rap sheet, Dutrow as a breath of fresh air.

--had their trainers trained them instead of relying on their natural talent and what might have been, Curlin and BB.

--damage to horses done by anti-slaughter.

--trainer of Eight Belles receiving a year end award.

--Ravens Pass, Santa Anita and a good show!

--NTRA showing signs of life before disappearing, again.

--goodbye, Woodlands, Eureka and a lot of memories.

--Optimism and qualms. The good stuff has yet to be done, but, anybody left standing to get ''em done?

--for my stable, weather. It could have been better.

All history now.

For any reader stumbling onto this site, hope 2008 was kind, and best to you in the coming year!

Hennig Concluded

Unfrozen in KC today and we're back to (considering) serious horse training. Yup, I'd agree, to that commenter last post that horses tend to run to their recent training, but as soon we say it, some nag yet to see the track in a month wins going away.

And, have to take note of the fellow at left with the red helmet since jocks going down gets my attention. Sam Thompson Jr. who had a horse fall on him at Los Alamitos on December 20th apparently was educated and smart. He also had verbalized immortal words every rider understands, that if they die on a horse they'll die happy. I feel sure Sam died happy.

This post concludes Hennig, and after New Years, brief looks at McGlaughlin, Reade Baker and Bruce Jackson, and thereafter some conclusions on what these website show about injury prevention.

I looked closely at several more Hennig horses. Here are their breeze/race/month averages for the entire year or to the point of injury:
Morning Gallop 2.52
Pay What you Owe 2.42
Sway 2.6
Drama Lady 3.2
Wesley 3.2
Shining Sea 2.9
Peach Flambe 2.95
Marquis Diamond 3
Better Again 2.75
Hepcat 2.9
Savor it 3.86
Atwell 3.4

All Hennig horses looked at average 2.98 breeze/race/month. Can we round it off to 3, and note that in any 30 day period therefore, we'd expect a Hennig horse to have one race and two breezes. They seem to want to give a 12-14 day break from speed work post race, and therafter commence a once a week (7 day) breezing schedule but they're highly inconsistent with spacing which can range anywhere from 5 days to 14 days. But note that the spacing never seems to exceed 14 days nor ever more frequently than 5. Also note we're declining at this point to look at breeze/race spacing in terms of performance since we're dealing with injury avoidance at the moment.

Hennig's breezing tends to be 4f in :12.25 with occasional 5f work and sometimes they go in :12s. 6f and 3f breezes are once in a blue moon. The most puzzling, irrational, inexplicable part of Hennig's work involves their "last breeze to race" frequency which ranges 5 days to 12 days but more frequently 9 to 12 days. To any exercise physiologist this long a gap is obviously stupid in terms of performance, and would tend to undermine the rest of Hennig's program. But, you say, perhaps Hennig sends them maybe coming home in :24s or :36s on slow day galloping during this gap, or as Bill the commenter noted last post there are "unrecorded" works or near works that frequently take place. Does Hennig do such quality slow day galloping?

I think not. As indicated by this photo showing Barcola in Dubai. Photos can lie but this seems other than a picture of a horse that does a lots of hard slow day galloping. The horse seems more fat and exceptionally unmuscled, ie. exactly as you'd expect a horse to look that gets but 3 speed works per month.
So, what do we conclude re Hennig: His training injures by our sample 57% of his horses per year, or turn it around and you have a 43% survival rate for the year. How many of the 57% that get hurt are career enders? Probably a significant percentage, but we'd be without any way of knowing unless we continue to follow the whole sample.

I will decline for the moment to put the 43% survival rate in perspective. Let's call it neither good nor bad for the moment, note that these horses did mostly get in a lot of races, and wait until I do a post comparing all these trainers looked at and their methods.

But, let's note one more thing about the sort of minimalist training that Hennig's website "seems" to indicate. I quibbled with Hennig's spacing and inexplicable gaps over the short run with several horses. However, looking at Hennig's horses you are particularly struck by the long run consistency of the whole program. Hennig's horses that run, run a lot, they run throughout the year, and they almost never vary their approach. It's cookie cutter, one size fits all training, and so you'd know exactly what you're getting and your odds with Hennig as your trainer.

Training:
12/29 Horses were walked under tack. Ground so wet we were unable to trot either in deep grass or on the wood chips--the horses with their hoofs sinking 2-3 inches refused--, which bespeaks how horrible ground conditions were over the weekend, when we had to pass on training.

More Hennig

Bob Black Jack at left showing attention to detail in his attire. Left click and see a neatly fitting, unobstructive bridle, perfectly measured bit, balanced jock, aero silks, and tied hair for wind resistance above the browband. Contrast this photo with the mess on the horse's head, last post.

One further aside before getting to Hennig. Too bad about Indyanne yesterday. To me, Albarado did what he had to with that lead change in the stretch even if he executed too sharply at speed. As lightly trained as these horses are, we know that few survive injury going a half mile on one lead. And so, it's good to see major jocks finally acknowledging the importance of the lead change even while the results here "seem" disastrous. Query though, watching the race on the backstretch and around the turn, knowing what's coming, does the horse show some body language that something is amiss??? And then thereafter--preceding the "bad step"-- she had refused the lead change.

But, back to Hennig, and unknown whether its my usual stewing over the weather but, I'm in a particularly foul mood looking this one over. Hennig is a major east coast trainer. His website shows 370 horses. He trains primarily on dirt. His operation possibly provides one more model of what accommodating and cow towing to these huge training operations is doing to the sport.

As my focus is injury prevention, and I'm avoiding editorial comment until the end, I will leave analysis of these large "numbers game" operations and what they do to others while noting that what I'm seeing is possibly highly unhealthy for the sport of horse racing. I've trumpted the "trainer problem" as one of our two or three biggest problems. Owners, if we are to have any, need some place to go. Doug O'Neill and Mark Hennig probably are nice guys. But, would you want them training your horse?

The importance of Hennig and his like cause me to take a particularly close look here, and so, to confirm what we saw with Make It Come True and Barcola, I've decided to look closely at one more Hennig horse. This time it is Datts Baby Salina, picked at random as the next of the group of survivors to pop up on my list.

DBS raced every month of the year through September. Without any racing gaps we assume this horse was injury free, and so a superb example of what the Hennig barn does in terms of breezing racing/frequency. Again, I believe Hennig probably does more frequent than average slow day galloping, though I doubt his slow day work is anything exceptional in terms of development or injury prevention. (I'll support this view, next post).

1:03 1/7
1:03.8 1/14 the seven day gap.
.50.8 1/21 why only 4f? 7 days again.
.50.4 1/28 7 days
RACE 2/7 They wait 10 days to race. Why 10? Seemingly questionable logic in the
handling? Again? Finishes 8th in a Msw.
What now?
:47.6 2/19 12 days later in sub :12s?
1:00.2 2/26 7 days later. They speeded up her work tabs.
.50.2 3/10 12 days now.
RACE 3/16 In 18 days before this race this horse has one slow 4f work. Can we possibly expect a performance? Hmmm.... Wins Msw.
:49 3/27 9 days.
:50 4/4 8 days.
RACE 4/11 7 days. They've done a decent job since last race. Result: 5th in turf allowance at Gulfstream
:50.4 4/22 11 days. This horse has less gaps Race to next breeze than the Barcola or Make It Come True.
:50 4/28 6 days now
RACE 5/10 12 days(??). Delaware Allowance. 3rd.
:47.6 5/23 13 days
1:01.8 5/30 7 days
RACE 6/6 7 days. While the spacing and planning seems much better with this horse than the last two, again, things fail to pay off. 6th in Monmouth allowance.
:50 6/18 12 days
1:02.6 6/26 8 days
1:02 7/11 15 days. Did the barn foreman forget about the horse again?
RACE 7/18 6th in Monmouth allowance.
:48.8 7/31 13 days
:52 8/8 8 days
:52 8/17 9 days
RACE 8/21 5 days. finishes 3rd in Monmouth allowance. Shorter spacing, better performance? Again, decent since last race?
:49.8 9/2 12 days
1:02 9/11 9 days
RACE 9/19 8 days 4th in Monmouth allowance.
The horse is having very little racing success. From here on to 12/17 they only breeze the horse. Sometimes in 7 day spacing, other times inexplicable 2-3 week gaps consisting primarily of 4f works in about 12.25/f.

DBS does 3.1 breeze/race/month. She to me shows a fairly conscientious training program. There's more consistency with DBS than with the prior two horses looked at though the inexplicable and unexplainable can be seen throughout the schematic. The horse survives the year on this program. Also noteworthy, with a horse struggling with its races this major trainer plods along with his program. I'm unable to see innovation to improving performance with DBS. A few guesses: I'd doubt Hennig supervises this questionably performing horse directly. However, DBS might have a more conscientious sharper barn foreman than Make It Come True.

Training:
12/25 both horses trot one mile after 6f pasture romp.
12/26 late arriving office client cancels our training.
12/27 good intentions gone afoul. It rained all night. Foot of water in the buckets, and then the ground froze. Impossible today. So, 2nd day off. Again, this two week slow period due to weather I'm ok with--a well planned break, IF we can avoid a January repeat. Weather gets better 12/28 on.

Barcola

Reddam owned, Hennig trained Barcola above in the Stephen Foster at Churchill. How to judge trainers? Little stuff. Note the bridle set up on the horse with the strap that will be flapping near the nostril.

Hope you had a nice Xmas. Here its right back to trainer number crunching with the current subject, former Lukas Assistant Mark Hennig. As an aside, yes, we do take note of another Reddam trainer, Doug O'Neill and the current self described "hot streak" where win percentages have gone from 14% when the blog noted O'Neill to 15.7% presently. Maybe worth a revisit to see what's going on. And congratulations to Stormy Jack, standing at Harris Farms, Inc. for $2,500.00 and the sire of Bob Black Jack.

Barcola(Old Trieste-King Mambo 26-7-3-2, $500,000 career earnings.) raced March through September 2008 steadily regressing and has been off the races since 9/27 but returned to breezing. Nice looking horse!

Last post I speculated that Hennig claimer trainee Make It Come True is handled by a barn foreman to explain some of the inconsistency. We'll presume stakes performer Barcola is handled directly by Hennig and thus a good indicator of his program. With Hennig, as with any former Lukas assistant, it's necessary to factor into the injury preventing equation likely high frequency off day galloping. I'd noted on the Blog that Lukas slow gallops 17-22 days a month. That's a lot of slow galloping comparatively and probably serves to provide some basic fitness as well as possibly creating the misperception in the trainer's mind that the horse is doing a lot of race appropriate injury prevention work. Looking at Hennig's website and the results, and putting it all together I'd doubt Hennig equates to the frequency of Lukas slow day galloping while believing that Hennig probably gallops his horses more frequently than average.

2/3 52.4
2/11 :50 8 days
2/17 1:03 6 days--same inconsistent spacing as with Make It Come True
2/25 1:00.6 8 days
3/3 :59.8 6 days
3/10 1:00.2 7 days
3/17 1:15.6 7 days decent regular work so far. what now?
3/29 RACE they wait 12 days. Sounds like a plan. Finishes 12th of 14 in the Godolphin Mile. Yes. Dubai. Winner: Diamond Stripes (Dutrow) in 1:37.
4/21: :47.6 4f in sub :12s after 23 days off from speed work.
4/30 1:00 9 days
5/10 10 days wins Brandywine Stakes at Delaware as heavy favorite for only win of 2008.
5/24 :48.6 14 days
5/31 1:02 7 days
6/14 RACE 3rd in Stephen Foster. 14 days breeze to race. Same thing they did in Dubai.
6/28 :48.8 14 days more.
7/7 :48.2 9 days
7/14 :50.8 7 days. should set him up nicely (sarcasm).
7/19 RACE 5 days. Did they figure out to avoid 12 days last breeze to race? 3rd in Stakes at Philadelphia.
8/2 :48 the usual 14 days post race.
8/10 :1:02 8 days
8/17 :49 7 days
8/24 RACE 7 days finishes 10th in stakes at Delmar. fails to respond to a restoration of a regular training schedule.
9/8 :47.8 15 days this time.
9/15 :49 7 days
9/22 :50.4 7 days
9/27 RACE 5 days. 6th in Stake at Hawthorne. The horse has been on a regular schedule, fails to respond and now gets a break.
11/18 :37
11/27 :51.2 9 days
12/3 :48.6 6 days
12/15 1.00.6 12 days.

Barcola has averaged for the year 3.25 breeze/race per month. Works a bit more than claimer Make It Come True. Possibly a strong slow day schedule makes up for some of the irrational stuff we see in the above schematic. Primarily we note that Barcola is still at it, and this provides a little more fodder yet for the idea that 3.25 breeze/race per month might be close to enough work to keep a horse going.

Training:
RR Xmas trip postponed due to weather.
12/24 Rod walks a 1/2 mile in the snow with Nob trying to find some pleasure in trail riding.
Art: Trots 1 mile.
12/25: Both horses trot a mile in the snow after a 6f pasture romp that went as fast as expected on bumpy, frozen ground, i.e. relatively slow but we were glad to see them running.
12/26 Training scotched by a late arriving (paying) client. Start again Sat. morning in deep mud.

Make It Come True

Hennig trainee Make It Come True survived the year. MICT proves well named. I picked him at random out of the Hennig sample(last post) from the survivors, and he's the first one out of the hat.

MICT is a claiming turf horse racing on the east coast at various tracks with the superior line of 9-1-2-2 for the year, and significantly never out of the money for the year. This is the sort of performance from my perspective is always satisfying--forget the wins, they'll come and keep 'em racing and in the money. (Note--I failed in typing this to notice the 6th place finish on 8/28.)

What does Hennig do with MICT in terms of breeze/race frequency?

1/6 RACE finises 2d. Hennig's website fails to show distance or purse.
1/17 :50.8. 11 days (less time than we've been seeing.)
1/26 :49.2 9 days
2/2 :50.8 7 days
2/9 :50.8 7 days
2/16 :50.6 7 days
3/1 :50.4 13 days forgot about the horse possibly. or weather, transport. who knows.
3/9 :49.6 8 days
4/10 :50.4 32 days. Injury? What's going on?
4/18 RACE finishes 3rd. Races after one :50.4 work in 32 days.
How long do they wait?
5/7 RACE finishes 5th. Zero breezing in 19 days.
How long do they wait?
5/24 :50.2 14 days
5/31 :37.8 7 days
6/7 :49.8 7 days
6/13 RACE 6 days, finishes 4th
How long do they wait?
6/26 :49.6 13 days
7/3 :50.2 7 days
7/11 RACE 8 days, wins. Note the horse (5/24 to 7/11 has 7 speedworks or 1 every 7 days.
They wait?
8/2 :50 21 days.
8/13: :49.6. 11 days. Why 11 days, we ask Suddenly in 32 days the horse has but 3 fast works.
8/28 RACE 15 days. Is the pattern rational? Horse finishes 6th.
9/16 :51. 19 days. The riders are on strike, perhaps.
9/23 :51.6 back to 7 days.
10/3 : 49 spoke to soon--10 days.
10/11 RACE 8 days, finshes 3rd.
10/31 1:01.6 20 days and they do this in :12.25s
11/7: RACE 7 days finishes 2nd.
11/23: :50.6 16 days.
12/3 :49 10 days
12/12 RACE 9 days finishes 5th.

Analysis: The racing pattern above is fairly consistent being about once a month and never more than once a month. I'll add that this racing pattern seems to be what Hennig does. I only in extreme rarity saw any horse racing more than once a month and they all tried to race once a month till injury. MICT averages for the year 2.73 breeze/race per month, but again, we have the pattern of primarily giving two weeks off from speed work after a race. Nevertheless 2.73 is among the lowest we've seen.

Speculation: Were I paying $100/day for MICT think I'd be furious. But, that's me. The largely irrational pattern of the spacing of this horse's fast work bespeaks more of handling by some barn foreman/ jr. h.s. graduate type, than Hennig himself. They basically take the horse's ability to perform away from him by their inconsistency. Caveat that this is based only upon what we see on the website.

Significantly MICT survives.

Training: might be back at it today. We'll see.
Later: Travel postponed to next week. 12/24 Tack work at 20 degrees. Rod walks 3/4 mile in the snow. Art trots a mile.

Hennig Revision

Reading my last(now deleted) post, the weather is getting to me, or worse. Let's try again. Hennig the subject. Hennig's work is a little harder nut to crack than some of the others, and I'm enjoying trying to make some sense of this 370 horse stable.

The Hennig sample of 35, last post, expands to 43 by adding the non-maiden horses that raced in July. 43 horses non-maiden racers out of 370 thus racing in the prime racing moths 5/1 to 8/1 which is 12% of the stable. I'm thinking--that's horrible. Then I remember. Is it but 20% of any foal crop that ever wins a race, and 10% win two races? Hennigs stats in this regard probably are close to average.

The key Hennig stat for the subject at hand--injury prevention-- is that 43% of his 43 racers survive the year on the website. I will give Hennig very little rope with the sample as these were other than the sort of horses that would be moved or taken out of racing unless there was injury. We'll stick Hennig with a 43% survival rate for the year putting him midway between Doug O'Neill's (godawful--can we say it now?) 21% and Catherine Day-Phillips real decent 65%.

Hennig training methods that get these results, next post.

Training: still off with the weather. With all the precip coming in I'm preparing an Ark, but early January weather is looking good.

Hennig

Another of the Lukas training progeny. Hennig sounded quite intelligent in a recent video. His website shows a lot of horses racing primarily on the east coast:

http://www.hennigracing.com/trainers/hr/index.cfm?menuid=99

We look at Hennig training in terms of frequency of breezing/racing per month. The questions:

How does Hennig train.
How many last the year.

Hennig has so many horses we're able to eliminate the maiden racers in the sample and look only at winning racers. The sample initially consisted of all such racing in the month of May 2008 or 21 horses, but to verify those results I looked also at the same sort of horses that raced in June.

I received an initial shock when 8 of the first 11 horses I looked at made it through the year. This proved the peril of the small sample, but Hennig's percentage is relatively high.

The results:

35 horses. 14 last the year for 40%.

I'm running out of time today. I'll flesh this out in terms of number of races per horse and how Hennig trains, next post.

Training: With brutal weather we're still off though I feel a bit the softie since the Chief's game went right on as scheduled. Another reminder that life can be short. Came home last night to see Rolling Rodney the 3 year old big gray tom cat laying dead in his recently purchased bed. Rod was in the house with his little 19 year old buddy female cat due to the weather. For the last two days before his death Rod had mostly lain in that bed acting ill as a human might with a touch of flu. Unknown how or why he died. When he arrived at the farm deposited by somebody on the road he was diagnosed with carrying the feline leukemia virus. Might have finally got him. No signs of struggle. I think he died peacefully in his sleep. Rod liked people and would constantly roll in our presence. He endeared himself by loving to watch the horses on most days. He'd follow us to the mounting area and often would perch himself up on the mounting stand and watch the proceedings. R.I.P. to Rolling Rodney the cat. We'll miss him!

Day-Phillips As A Benchmark

I treck on with stats begging everyone's patience as the blog ferrets out "some stuff". These days the RR thoughts and puzzlings of two+ decades as to what really goes on out there, now it's all on our screens.

With a few revisions in these websites to include slow day galloping and explanations of why horses disappear we have potentially an invaluable injury prevention gold mine. Think I'll look at Hennig and Stewart and then conclude.

Today the Catherine Day-Phillips finale. I revisited the original sample of racing horses, found only 16 instead of 17 in it this time, and looked at the workouts.

Combining workouts with the racing, one is struck at the consistency of this lady's work. In my parlance, they go out there every day. You will see below that the sample averages 3.54 breeze/race/per month AND that is with two week layoffs from speed work after racing. Subtract those two week layoff periods and C. Day-Phillips works her stock once a week. It's Todd Plecher training with significantly less off time from speed work.

The result, and again this really strikes you when you combine looking at breezes AND races, is that almost every horse in the sample races consistently either through the year or to the point of dropping out. Though 8 of 16 horses failed to make it through and a three others obviously were injured and came back off layoffs, almost all of them made it a good long way. You notice in this stable absence of the common hit and miss racing and quick exits prevalent in the other sites.

Day-Phillips's consistency provides a benchmark. She breezes 4 or 5f in :12s or a little slower every 7 days except after races when she gives her two weeks off from speed work. 50% make it through and of the 50% that failed I'd guess 2 or 3 stopped for reasons other than injury. This makes for Day-Phillips a 65% percentage in terms of making it through one year. For as consistently as they race, this seems fairly decent by itself and extremely good when compared to other sites.

The reader might be thinking RR is being too nice here. It's Xmas, right? Let's wait till the blog gets to "performance" before we lower the boom on Catherine Day-Phillips. I suspect we'll see some holes. But, in terms of injury prevention, some quibbles, but best comparatively to date.

Here are the stats. The number to the left of the horses name is the average number of breeze/race/month for that horse either through the year or to the point of injury. C. Day-Phillips horses average about 5.75 races per horse per year, and that includes the injured horses. Again, seems very decent.

These horses lasted the year:
3 Runoff to La
3.3 Natural Mystic
3.4 True Jean
3.3 Short Shorts
3.8 Long Pants off a layoff
3.1 Van Lear Rose
4.25 Cianorte off a layoff
3.61 Victory Pass--back working after a layoff, yet to have recent race.

3.47 average of breeze/races/month for horses that last the year.

These horses failed to last the year:
3.7 Soul Rebel
3.25 Red Raffles
3.5 Read The Stars
3.8 Bold Suspect
3.8 Parlour Time
3.75 Fashion Jenny
3.76 Wovoka
3.2 Snow Delicious

3.6 average breeze/race/month for horses that dropped out.

Sample average 3.54 breeze/race/month

Training: We're planning to work. Depends on ground conditions. Will post.

Van Lear Rose

Day-Phillips trainee Van Lear Rose was commented on by KH last post. A smallish two year old filly, VLR gallops on the outside in the photo. Again I'm struck at how comfortable the Day-Phillips horses look in the photos.

VLR won a couple of stakes at Woodbine then a weak 6th in the BC Fillies Juvenile which shows best on the NTRA (non-importable video) website:

http://www.ntra.com/videoarchive.aspx?year=2008&page=3&type=

VLR looks anything but comfortable in the BC. She gallops along mostly 4th or 5th, is without any response at the quarter pole and holds her own against tiring horses at the finish.

Giving credit the horse made it through the year. We've seen on these Trainer website an average 30% for the year survival rate. Possibly we see a training pattern with VLR for bare minimums necessary for survival. Notice how persistent they are with their schedule.

:13.6 2/1 She starts out in Ocala.
:13.6 2/7 same exact time as 1st, lol, and six days later. Possible growth and knee concerns this time of year.
:12.6 2/29 Indeed they wait 21 days to go again.
:12.4 3/7 7 days.
25.8 3/14 7 days, nice logical jump. notice it's longer and slower.
:26.4 3/21 7 days.
:25.4 4/19 They wait almost a month. Injury or more growing?
:25.2 4/26 7 days
:37.4 5/3 7 days
:37.2 5/10 7 days
:47.6 5/17 7 days. this is a big jump. Wisdom might depend on the off day work.
:51 5/24 7 days. what they should have done on 5/17?
:50.8 5/31 7 days.
:50.4 6/7 7 days. Nice consistent training to date!
:47.6 6/17 7 days.
RACE 6/19 Msw 5f finishes 4th.
What now?
:101 7/5 Do you do zero speed work for 16 days then run off a 5f in :12s with a two year old. Ignoring the lesson of Afleet Alex after the Belmont perhaps.
RACE 7/13 slight redemption in terms of timing this 7 days after the breeze. The Shady Well Stakes, finishes 3rd.
What now?
:48.2 7/26 13 days later. They're consistent with their timing!
1:02.2 8/2 7 days.
RACE 8/9 7 days. Second in a 7f Msw. Decent work with this horse to date imo. Less than great. Decent!
Two weeks?
1.02 8/23. Exactly two weeks.
RACE 9/1 8 days wins the Muskoka Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.
1:01.2 9/20. They change up their pattern and wait 19 days at a crucial point and begging for trouble again with :12s after almost 3 weeks since speed.
1:04 9/27 7 days. Note the slow time.
RACE: 10/5 Wins 1 1/16 mile Mazarine stakes.
They're thinking BC? How do they prepare. Since its 10/25 are they going to wait two weeks for a breeze? Without looking, I'd predict so. They have a method.
1:02.6 10/17 They wait 12 days lol. Probably getting nervous, + it's 7 days per their usual mode to the Cup from here.
RACE 10/24 6th in the BC which might be predictable with the slow breeze 7 days out. If you want to (really) compete with Stardom Bound, as opposed to just showing up, do you do a 1:02.6 7 days out for a 1 1/6 mile race?

Analysis: They're bringing along a youngster as well as preserving the horse. The former affects the latter. I agree with KH comment last post, comparatively, solid, if unspectacular, training by Day-Phillips. Might we be more comfortable with this trainer than some of the others looked at on the blog? Probably, but there's a little more to look at, next post.

Training:
12-15-17 off due to weather.
Thurs. 12/18 Over 3 inches of snow horses do 3.5 continous riderless miles in the regular paddock spurting occasionally to :17/f on the hard underneath ground. 2 miles of this was continuous slow gallop then trot-gallop as the horses preferred. We're in a holding pattern in the weather with the conditioning.
12/19 Off as overnight freezing rain turns the farm into an ice sheet.

True Jean

True Jean pictured, a Day-Phillips trainee that lasted the year and had 10 races all at 6f mostly in allowance and high claiming. Looks at this moment in time a decently put together and conformed chunk of a filly, a bit fat possibly, a characteristic shared by my own horses and all the Day-Phillips horses in her photo gallery: http://www.catherinedayphillipsracing.com/trainers/cdp/public/gallery/index.cfm

The photos show a well cared for bunch very comfortable in their work.

The first TJ workout is 3/1, the latest race 12/4, a period of 8 months approx. The horse shows 17 breezes and 10 races for 3.375 works every 30 days. The 3.375 average would be higher but they declined breezing the horse between 10/17 and 12/4 though TJ raced twice in this period.

TJ had a nice year, seems well handled with a few RR quibbles noted below. TJ probably is typical of what Day-Phillips likes to do when things go well. Here's TJ breezing/racing step by step:

The first race 4/18. Again, good job of first race preparation:

:36.6 3/1
:38 3/6--this is the first five day interval I've seen on all websites to date.
:48.4 3/13 7 days later
:48.4 3/20 7 days again
:49.6 3/29 9 days here, but 5 works in March. First time I've seen 5 in one month.
1:00.4 4/5 7 days later
1:00.1 4/12 7 days
RACE 4/18 6 days post breeze finishes 3rd in $69,000 allowance. Decent showing for any Race #1.

What do they do post race?

1:03.2 5/3 They waited two weeks per all the websites looked at to date.
RACE 5/11 8 days after last breeze. The horse has one slow breeze in 3 weeks and is asked to race. Hmmm.... Finishes 3rd in Allowance nwx

What next?

RACE 5/25. Two weeks no breezes. Do we predict a poor finish due to even further detraining. Result: 2nd in $62,500 claiming. Possibly more missed opportunity here. Horse responded ok. We start to see a reason for fat horses in the photos.

Now what?
:51 6/7 They wait 13 days--the two week wait.
:49 6/21 Another two weeks. Inexplicable to me, but you'd expect that.
RACE 6/25 6 days later. They change up the spacing. I'm again questioning the thought process. We're down to 3 breeze/race/month since 4/19. Result: Wins $62,500 claimer.

Ok. They're happy. Do they have their thinking caps on? What do they come up with?
Zero breezes in July, One race.
RACE 7/17 finishes 4th in $80,000 claiming. Moved her up in class after 22 days of zero works.
The 4th(or worse) is predictable based on the schedule.

:50.4 on 8/2 17 days later. They're starting to give even more time between race and work.
4f 8/9 time fails to show. They're back to 7 days. Did the 4th change their thinking?
RACE 8/16 7 days later produces a win in a $80,000 allowance.

Again, I'm intrigued. What next?

:49.4 8/30 two weeks later. Consistency. Imo they need another quick breeze, then race.
RACE 9/7 one week later produces a 7th in a nwx allowance. The 7th place finish seems to catch their attention.

:48.6 on 9/27 20 days later. Minor injury possibly? They thought the horse needed a break? With the 7th place finish, notice what comes next.
1:01.4 10/4 7 days later.
:49 10/11 7 days. Should be ready.
:48.6 10/17 6 days!
RACE 10/31. Another head scratcher as they wait two weeks. Result: 3rd in $80,000 claiming.

And, no more breezing for this horse hereafter.
RACE 11/22 finishes 4th in $62,500 claiming.
RACE 12/4 wins $32,000 claiming, as the favorite without a doubt.

How do we evaluate? Certainly on a comparative basis with the other websites looked at, the TJ training job was all in all very decent. The filly actually did some consistent work in spurts even as we puzzle over certain periods and their thought process. Day-Phillips would have to tell us what TJ did on non-breeze days, but we may surmise that if this horse did a lot on slow gallop days, i.e. they tried to gallop to extreme fitness--e.g. lot's of 2m work or 2 mile gallops--the stuff of Neil Drysdale types, we'd speculate a better race performance. My own best guess: they did just enough with this horse to avoid injury, barely.

Training: we're watching the weather. Will posted later.

Jim Day and Catherine Day-Phillips

Another one from the past. James Day. 1968 Olympic Equestrian Gold Medalist, trainer of Regal Classic and Dance Smartly, and father of Catherine Day-Phillips:



http://www.catherinedayphillipsracing.com/trainers/cdp/index.cfm?menuid=72


Txs. to KH for again steering me in the right direction. Training result here might be interesting!

The website includes results and workouts. Day-Phillips is college graduate, cute, married darn it, moderate number of stalls at Woodbine and South Florida, the usual puffing, develops young horses, etc. etc., Do you want RR snooping around ur site? We'll see.

My running comments as I look at the site:

Readers here know of my skepticism re woman trainers. No offense to the ladies intended since my own experience in girls basketball indicated that girls approach athletics otherwise than do the men and with different motivations--more social, competitive with some comparative limits. So in my experience is it with lady horse trainers. But, again, new site, open mind, and we'll hold her accountable for what she's posted.

Here's my running commentary as I look at this site. We want to know how she trains in terms of number of breeze/race/month, and her injury percentages over the year.

Woodbine trainer, it appears, and so instead of starting with the first 20 racers in January, brrrr, look at May instead.

Oh, Oh. First sign of trouble. There's Red Raffles racing a 2nd on May 4 and coming back on May 25 (nice spacing) with a 10th. Red flag.

Of the first 5 horses checked 3 are still going. The crow is cooking in the pot...

Red Raffles is injured 9/27. Came back decently though.

This trainer gets more races out of her horses....

I have to go from 5/1 to 7/15 to get a 17 horse sample. 87 horses on the site and just a few racing. Sounds like my stable. lol. Presume lot's of young 2 year olds here. Seems that sort of operation. To confirm this I went outside the sample and clicked on the first ten horses from the bottom. Only one race listed among them.

Results: 17 horses race 92 times for 2008 for a total of 5.4 per horse. 8 of the 17 are still going for 47%.(Note, I may revise this after looking at workouts to find any injured that may now be back.) Have to observe that 2 of these 8 have come off long layoffs to race recently, but, at least--unlike these other trainers--they are back. (Note that Doug O'Neill recently had a couple of his injured return--Mystical Plan and one other). Decline to give Day-Phillips the usual rope and increase her percentage. The website shows fairly true results since they enter frequently presumably when they are able. Thus, I'd suspect Day-Phillip's overall (i.e. other then career ending) injury rate at about 50% over a whole year. That's fairly decent, when you think about it. 50% of these frequently raced horses were without any injury at all. And, the horses that race the most get hurt less, a running thread on all these sites.

How does Day-Phillips get this lower than average (compared to the several others I've looked at) injury rate?It's a smaller sample, but, I'll look at her workouts and try to peg the training, next post.

Training: 21 degrees at 4:40 p.m. in KC. We decided to skip the 3rd day in a row. Could have and maybe should have gone, but declined.

Casse and Contessa

Mark Casse: Casse's website has Race Results, but lacks "workouts", and so instead of in depth look, the analysis was confined to how many Casse horses that raced in January and February 2008 are still going. There were 25 racers in those months. Of these, 5 appear to be still going. That's 5/25 or 20%. We are being generous to say a couple of these are still going as they've yet to be heard from in 1.5 months.

And, consider that several of the 25 appeared non-competitive and may simply have been retired or given a break. Estimate Casse has a true survival rate around 40%, maybe 50%, after we give him the usual due. Other than terrible, other than great, very average.

"You look at this jerk down there, Contessa. How does he set records? How does he do it?"--Richard (No Middle Name) Dutrow Jr. at press conference 6/7/08.

Indeed, though Contessa's win percentage of 13.6% pales in comparison to Doug O'Neill's lately burgeoning 15%.

Contessa's website also fails to show works, but shows results. As it turns out, after 15 minutes of searching through Contessa's results I decided he fails to keep his website up. The website is without correlation to horses listed compared to horses racing.

Grain of salt on Dutrow's opinion, red flag, or where does the opinion come from? Contessa, though, obviously fairly intelligent. I found an (extremely) interesting inside information Contessa video here:

http://www.brightcove.tv/title.jsp?channel=770142712&title=1150765047

In the other videos, interesting commentary from the jock.

Training:
12/15 to 17 will be off due to the weather. Temps hovering 5-15 degrees in KC with 3 inches of snow on the ground. Hope to be back Thurs. with a little work. Weather turn around coming, so we'll just try to maintain for now.

Bongo/Rush Rush Running Commentary

I've now looked at all the Bongo horses. Results below.

Bongo has a very consistent approach with their horses. You could call it "cookie cutter" as there seems little variation from horse to horse.

Rush Rush is another horse who seems to have lasted the year though he came on board with a breeze in late April. Rush Rush shows a typical Bongo pattern, as follows:

4/25 :36.2
5/2 :48.8
5/9 1.00.8
5/16 1:00.8
5/26 1:14.8 Suddenly a 10 day wait. Was the jockey ill, did they forget about the horse, did the owner fail to pay his bills???
6/3 1:14.8 back on the 7 day schedule he repeats the last work.
6/10 1:26 12 seconds/f for 7f is a 1:24. Were this my horse I'd be enthusiastic with the performance even if they rushed the horse a bit for my taste. Will they breeze again in 7 days?
6/19 RACE ooops. they decide the horse is ready and wait 9 days to the entry. Can a horse stay tight for 9 days after a work? Another head scratcher with this delay. The horse finishes 6th, but, it's race #1, and probably we have a reasonably fit animal as these things go.
7/4 :1:00.4 Two mistakes: 1. they've wait 2 weeks post race loosing a lot of conditioning. 2. they go right into 5f in :12s. Can a horse survive 5f in :12s after two weeks off. Russian Roulette in my book.
7/11 1:12 They're back on the 7 day schedule. 2 breezes in :12s in a row 7 days apart. This bodes well for performance under conventional training.
7/19 RACE Wins. What the heck and 8 days since last breeze.
8/3 1:01.8 Waited 2 weeks post race again. Same injury concerns as last time, but probably a fitter animal.
8/10 1:12 still ok, I guess.
8/20 Race. They wait 10 days again. Slow learners, possibly? 6th place but in a stakes race.
Will they give exactly two weeks now till the next work?
9/10: 1:00 They waited 20 days this time. Our injury concerns probably have come to fruition, though this is a nice work.
9/17: 1:00.4 Still going. 7 days.
10/3: whoops. scratched. BUT
10/6 right back to it 1.14.6 NOTE, we have now had 1 work in 26 days.
10/13 :1:02.4 slowing down a bit in his work but they're back to 7 day intervals.
10/20: 1:12 three works in 21 days now. fitness returning?
10/27 :59.8 fastest breeze of the year and 4 in 28 days now.
11/3 :1:03 and 5 breezes in 35 days. The horse has put in his most consistent work since race #1. What will happen?
11/12: RACE. Nine days since last work. Can a horse stay tight that long? RR looks at race finish: 2nd. If I were an owner I might shoot this trainer. I'd be tempted. What if they've breezed say 7 days out. Why, with a race pending do these jackals suddenly wait 8 or 9 days?
Is there more?
11/28 1:14.8 They wait the patented two weeks.
12/6: RACE. The patented 8-9 day wait to race. The horse has almost 4 works in a month but just two between the races over a period of 33 days. That's 1 work every two weeks. Are they expecting to win? The horse finishes 8th.

Summary: This is a typical Bongo horse. What's your opinion? Rush Rush since 4/25 breezed/raced 25 times for an average of 3.4 times every 30 days. 5 races in 7 months. The works were a little farther and faster than the average. They seems to like to work every 7 days after a two week rest for 3 or 4 weeks then they wait 8-9 days for a race. Unknown what they do with their gallops, but, I'd think this is the sort of outfit that probably tries to gallop 1-1.5 miles almost every day. This is similar to Lukas training, but maybe breezes a bit faster. My own personal opinon: I'd fear Bongo and their $75,000 horses but for reasons other than their training, which is Todd Plecher conventional but sharp and consistent in what they do. Fails to work though, it seems.

Bongo lists 25 horses that have raced. Of these 25, with 3 coming back off layoffs, 8 are still racing or 32% have survived the year. That's other than to say the remaining 68% were permanently injured. Let's estimate Bongo moved 4 horses during the year. This would increase their percentage of survivors to almost 50%. I'd guess the 50% comes from a little stronger more consistent training program that the blog has looked at of late.

Training:
Fri. 11/12: riderless 5x3f in the mud very fast on their own without being driven after 3 days off in 50 degree weather.
Sat. 11/13 Good weather continues. 1 mile tack work for each horse mostly trot. The horses then did 2 miles riderless at a brisk pace anticipating fast work tomorrow. A little too much probably.
Sun. 11/14: Bottom drops out of the weather. Cold arrives one day early. It's 20 degrees by the time Knob finishes shoeing with the ground freezing fast. We decide on an all out riderless workout. The ground is muddy-fluffy-deep. The horses do their toughest riderless work to date with warm ups and warm downs: 1 mile + 6f with a 5 min. rest between. This time they are driven and though the workout is less than 20 hours after yesterday's w/o, they chug all the way. Enough hopefully to last a few days through the 5 degrees we have as I type this.

Bongo

You can find the Bongo horses here:
http://www.bongoracing.com/
The website shows entries and results for about 31 horses puffing that they deal in $75,000+ types only, again reminding me of the joke of my old acquaintance trainer Robin Keller circa 1990 confronted in the Prairie Meadows kitchen by a fat short breathed owner in gold chains seeking expert advice on what he should do with his "$30,000 horse". Keller paused, long pause, and responded "sell him". I forgot the good fellow's reply, possibly total silence for a second or two and a few chuckles from surrounding tables.

Looking at all the Bongo horses they seem to lose value twice as fast as on of those spanking new loaded F-350s. Again, the disclaimer, we look at only what shows.

Weirdly, in this regard, if you look closely at Bongo they do, comparatively, a very decent job with their horses in terms of breezing/racing frequency. Of the websites I've looked at so far in terms of speed, distance, frequency, consistency, and good sense, the patterns that show impress a bit more than the others on the blog to date.

I looked at ten Bongo horses racing in order after 1/1/08 to see what they did for they year and how many of them are still around as follows:

Smokin Stogies 4 races for the year, last shows 7/5/08.

Mount Orient 8 races, last seen 10/9. Benefit of the doubt and say he's still going.

Debbie Ginzburg 2 races for the year, last shows 4/17.

Courtly Jazz 4 races for the year, last shows 5/13

Uffize 10 races for the year, still going.

Adhere 7 races for the year, last shows 8/24.

Bob Benoit 6 races for the year last shows 8/2.

Meet With Destiny 5 races for the year, still going but came back after a long layoff.

Manaman Mclir 2 races for the year last shows 4/19.

Starstruck Kristen 4 races for the year, last shows 6/3.

10 horses, 52 races for the year, 5.2 races per horse, 3 still going--the same 30% survival rate we're seeing on the other sites.

So, what does $75,000 with horses get your these days? With Bongo we need to consider that this active sales outfit probably looks to move horses at a profit. The 30% survival rate, thus, has possible inaccuracy as horses may have been sold instead of injured.

Some Bongo e.gs.:

Uffize raced 10 times for the year and is still going. I'll summarize the number of breeze/races per month from January to the present for Uffizi:

2
3
4
3
4
2
4
2
3
1
2

With Uffizi frequency does seem to correlate with performance, although there might have been an injury thrown in there in mid summer. U's best success rate is March to May when indeed they get him to the track most frequently. U's March to May performance results in the following finishes: 2,1,3,3. When they slack of with their work thereafter we get to 10/5/08 finishes of 6, 4, and 3. Possibly pure coincidence of course, but overall I'd say we can trust what were seeing here relating frequency to performance. Why do they suddenly reduce the horse's work? Unknown but also typical.

More Bongos next post.

Training for Saturday, to come.

Vladimir Cerin

College soccer player, kinesiology grad early '70s, grew up on a farm in Bosnia, worked with pro athletes, trained horses since 1978, Pacific Classic winning Student Council, Albertus Maximus, and a bit formidable looking, eh?

2008 Bayakoa Handicap, Briecat/Cerin. Notice the fractions:
http://www.ntra.com/videoarchive.aspx

2008 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Albertus Maximus/Cerin:
http://www.ntra.com/videoarchive.aspx?year=2008&page=2&type=

Skeptical of Bosnians at the moment--see Blogojevich--but these sort of horse results get your attention. My personal reaction to the BC mile: exactly the sort of strong performance I'd expect out of my own training. When you've been there, you have the fittest, best trained horse, really, this is the picture you come to expect of yourself.

And so, based on what we're seeing I'd like to know how these horses trained. Anybody know anything about what Cerin does? Other than intervals, lol, but, really, this was good stuff!

Additionally, expand a little on my opinion as to Cerin's comments on interval training. I'm a little bit qualified having done some form of intervals with horses for 25 years, even though I lack the racing of Cerin, I've raced some of them. Interestingly thinking back I mostly recall doing intervals for injury prevention. A first draft of this post contained my statement that I never remember doing intervals for performance at all. On reconsideration, I'm sure that is untrue, but only because we're always working for performance on the racetrack, whatever we do. Think probably for us the intervals never emphasized performance. I'm doubting that I've ever believed that multiple heats have anything to do with making the horse faster, and to a limited degree--jury still out--I tend to even agree with Cerin re the fitness aspect of intervals. Unsure really how much fitness Ivers really gained with 3 breezes in one day compared to what I've gotten with a whole lot less.

Thus, it is possible that Cerin's remarks on interval training were simply misunderstood. Readers of the blog know that I am doing other than strict interval training at the moment. My training emphasis is elsewhere. Though I do intervals for purpose of warm up, getting in more work, etc., I have essentially abandoned the concept in terms of performance. Without getting into deep psycho analysis or reviewing my whole history, there is a very good reason that these days I'm thinking other than intervals.

But, the blog hopefully will soon be getting to the subject of performance with the intent to conduct a comparative analysis of various training methods. First, I want to conclude the #1 priority, which is keeping 'em running. Wondering what Cerin's injury rate has been.

Training: Partly prompted by weather, but also because our athletes have had a tough two weeks of training, we decided on 3 straight days off. Bad weather is blowing in, and we'll have plenty of time soon to consider what to do about that, I fear. But, for today good weather. I arrived at the farm with a shoe hanging on a fence. Turned out to be the pawing Art's front right. Nob reshod taking a bit too much time with the contracted heels on this particular foot that we've been dealing with, and so too near dark to ride in mud, but ok since all we could have done was walk. What started out as a riderless play workout after the off time turned into 5 or 6 heats of all out sprints in the mud which they did on their own without being driven--an abundance of enthusiasm after the off time, as expected.

Training

I'll be back on topic soon. The story in KC is/was the weather, but, as you see below it went from veritable disaster to looking good:
Mon. 12/8: foot of rain then snow coming in tomorrow + Art's possible hoof bruise from galloping on hard ground causes us to do riderless speed work: 1.25 miles all out. Rod lagged a bit as well he should with the hard training of the last two weeks. As we finish this, with the forecast we're considering we might be done with serious training for the year.
Tues and Wed: 12/9 and 10: Two scheduled days of rest after tough two weeks of training. The weather forecast changes on the dime. First, instead of a foot of precip. we wind up with 1/4 inch only being grazed by the back end of two big systems. Then they take next week's foot of snow out of the forecast, and instead it's getting warmer. So, looks as if we're bobbing and weaving with the weather again, and getting some luck for which we were due.

Training

Bill--"everyone seems to be inconsistent with frequency"--it's looking a lot that way. I plan to include Bill O'Gorman's views on in season training of horses racing. As long as I've been at it I should know everything, lol, but possibly the answer on how frequently we need to go to avoid injury is an unknown that has yet to be established. So many things to consider obviously I'm going to try to stumble through this and come to some conclusions. Any insight you have is always appreciated. (unable to find anything on Abrams).

Meanwhile, another blow for expensive stallions as Briecat by Adcat (Korea) wins the Bayakoa. Does the appearance of this filly say anything about the training of Vladimir Cerin?

http://www.croatians.com/cerin.htm

Cerin is one I'd enjoy having a conversation with.

Back at ranch RR we're taking in the 40 degree+ weather over the last 4 days and bracing for what's coming in tomorrow. I'd at least like it warmer than Woodbine around here. I'll be doing an extensive report on my own stable soon.

Training:
Thurs. 12/4: Off
Fri. 12/5: Each horse does 1.7 miles slow tack work.
Sat. 12/6: Tack: Rod 1.7 miles of what passes for gallop at this point for the 2 year old. Art: 1.7 miles gallop but fails to switch to right lead on command, so, intermittent. Both horses then do 6f riderless speedwork all out. We limit distance with view to going tomorrow with good weather.
Sun: 12/7: normally would rest,but with weather coming in we decide to go on. Art: 1.7 miles gallop but again declines switching to right lead. Hmmm. We decide he possibly bruised his right hoof when we galloped on hard ground last Wed. Unknown. There seem to be no other problems but we're concerned about this easy switching horse suddenly refusing. Rod: does his best galloping to date 1.7 miles. Riderless, Rod only 2 miles slow. Art excused due to potential hoof problem.

Wild Again

"I might entreat the fleeting minute.
Oh, tarry yet, though art so fair..."
(Goethe)

Coming along in the early eighties, Wild Again brackets my own time in horse racing, and so a little personal nostalgia with his passing. Considering the great races, certainly 87, 88, 89 with Alysheba and Sunday Silence, but in rating them, all time, the little voice inside always comes back to: what about that first Breeder's Cup Classic with Wild Again?

Joan Scott

Another easy on the eyes trainer that I chose at random. Her stable sample is small, simple to follow therefore, and contains interesting photos of some of her horses that will be looked at. For Pics click on Home Page and photo gallery at:
http://www.joanscottracing.com/trainers/jsr/index.cfm?menuid=128

I'll again be looking at injury prevention instead of performance with a view to seeing how frequently Ms. Scott breezes/races and the results. What she does on slow days is unknown. However, the pictures seem to show some very decently conditioned horses. And so, without adieu, here they are:

(Sort of like my stable, hard to find a horse that has really raced. Ms. Scott is back at Tampa.Works start 3/7/08 probably when the website was started. Note, some horses, it appears were never brought north from Tampa. The Tampa horses are thus omitted.)

Conviviality: a maiden that seems to be going backwards. 3 races and 7 works since 6/13/08 and has yet to be heard from since 9/22. Injured, thus. Does 3 breeze/race/month appox.

A Wee Gift: You'd expect the athletic horse in the photo to be decent, and she is. 10 races for the year with 2 wins and a second, but she was scratched from her last race 11/2. A deliberate pattern shows of racing this horse once a month. She shows but 4 breezes for the whole year. She's probably hurt now, but, we'll give benefit of doubt on this one and say she's still with us. 14 breeze race in 11 months. Barely 1 a month. She survived for a while on a well thought out schedule.

Bekagi: 2 races at Tampa in the spring. Probably left behind. This one will be omitted from the analysis.

Caught In The Middle: 4 races to 8/17. Another that's going backward. Shows 7 breezes since 3/7. So 11 works races to 8/17 in 5 months. About 2 breeze/race/month. This horse obviously is injured.

Charedi's Peak: 5 races 6/7 to 10/18. Again, approx. once a month. 12 breezes since 5/18. So, that's 17 breeze race in 5 months or 3.4 per month. We'd expect Charidi to have a better record based on frequency. Only one win though. But this horse had been racing tough. I'll pronounce her injured since we have nothing in 2 months.

Dixiana Darling: 4 races, 3 seconds, 1 win at Tampa. Brought to Keeneland for two works, then disappears. Injured. Good example of the training: 6 breezes/4 races in 3 months = 3.33 per month.

Donay: 3 races including a 1st and 3rd since 7/18. This horse shows a steady pattern of 3 breezes/month till she starts racing. Since 7/18 3 races and 3 works in 2 months = 3/month. Nothing since 9/18. Significantly, 16 days between last work and last race. Can you get away with that? Doubtful. Injured.

Dr. Zic: 1 race which she won. This horse shows 4 breeze/race/month. hmmm. And, still going. Just 1 in November though(???).

Glimmering Hope: 4 races to 5/18. 7 works to 5/18. She made it to Keenland then disappeared. Injured. This horse does 3 breeze/race/mo. after she starts racing.

Iron ID: Does decently in two October races. And shows all of two works. She probably just got this one in. But, significantly he's still going, though only 1 work since 10/22.

Lucky Flyer: Another once a month racer to 9/17. This horse gets but one or two breeze/race a month once it starts racing. Injured, obviously. Last shows 9/17.

Mistya First: will be a good example of J. Scott training since she's around from 3/6 till she disappears on 9/21. 15 breezes/5 races in 5.66 months = 3.5 breeze/race/month. Injured.

Need For Patience: Oh my! Nice series of 4 and 5f works before first race. They enter her on 11/14 in a 1 1/8 mile maiden where she finishes 7th. This horse works 5 times in October but her last work before the route race was 9 days out. This is what I refer to when puzzle of the doings, comings and goings of women trainers. There is simply zero thought process involved in the training of this horse. There's effort, and good intent, without a doubt. But the "be smart" part of the training awol. Still going though, for now.

Put Away The Halo: I'll stop here. Seen enough. 3 races commencing 8/2. 9 works since 5/28. Last heard from 9/22. That's 12 breeze race in 3.66 months or 3.27 breeze.race/month. Injured.

13 horses looked at. 4 still going. 31%.

This is a 3.25 breeze/race/month stable. That's one fast work every 9.5 days. Fails to keep 'em running per the other similar stables we've looked at. I'd like to have Ms. Scott's phone number but probably for reasons other than training horses. Next, the strictly male operated Bongo Racing Stable.

Training.
Thurs. 12/4: Off.
Fri. 12/5: Easy gallop day. Less anxiety(human) on these easy days. But a new problem rears its head in the 32 degree temperature. The ground is so hard the horses are short striding. We'll see how it goes with this weekend's melt. Each horse went 1.7 miles (2 times around). Art mostly slow gallop. Unable to open up due to the ground. Rod's first trip was problematical back to trying to figure out how to breath at the gallop, but, big improvement second go around that was mostly gallop. Nice day and got done what we planned.

Evidence Gathering Continues

Thanks to the commenter for the update on "Rexxy". Officer Sheila T. Rex is now at Fingerlakes and recently finished 2nd in a $7500.00 claimer. This is after my prediction that the horse probably was hurt in October with my prediction based what I saw on paper. I'll stick with my prediction since I'm most generally correct. How, you say? When you've been in athletics for 50 years you get a feel. Nothing special. It's just experience. But, let's hope for the new owners of Rexxy that in this case I'm wrong and Rexxy will go on to be a great horse for them at Finger Lakes. Best of luck!

As to Linda Rice and her training maybe a word more should be said. In the multi layered world of thoroughbred racing getting to the heart of accurate trainer evaluations are as difficult as anything else these days. Depends on what you're looking at, focusing on, and what's available comparatively.

Whatever you want to say here in the negative, there's also Russian Prospector racing 19 times for the year of which I'm fairly blown away. I took a closer look at the website. There's more there than bare stats. They all look good in the winners circle, but this horse is harldy in bad condition:
Less condition than you'll see with the next trainer I look at, Joan Scott. But this is other than a fat out of shape looking horse as the training might suggest. It's unknown (to me) what Rice does on off days, so you do have to reserve judgment just a bit on the trainer's overall program when all you have available is breeze/race stats.

Nevertheless, the inquiry here was other than to announce judgment on Linda Rice and her training. The idea was to find further evidence as to injury prevention, fracture resistance and the place of "frequency" of the breeze/race schedule. Think the blog has looked enough at the 8-9 day stuff to observe definitively, if you want to preserve your horse and keep 'em running you might want to look for a trainer that does speed work more often than every 8 days. Put another way: my opinion is that the horse needs to "average" more than 8 days for race/speed work for fracture resistance. Just an opinion at this point. I'll be looking at a lot more in support as the posts go on.

Next up two more stables whose stats are available. Joan Scott is interesting as a small sample size. Bongo Racing Stable announces partnerships in $75,000+ horseflesh. Hmmm.. I have an open mind as to what we'll find. Should be interesting.

Training:
Tues. 12/2: For both horses 1 mile trot under tack and a riderless continuous 1.5 miles in :15s in the mud.
Wed: 12/3: We move from the refrig to the freezer. All hope of a 40 degree December is just about gone. We do a test run at 30 degrees and are pleasantly surprised by Mr. Nob who says he thinks he'll be ok up to at least 10 degrees colder. Each horse does a mile of tack work with Rod mostly trotting with Nob letting him canter when he takes off on his own. Nob is letting this youngster dictate how he goes at this point. We're trying to teach him to like his job. Art trotted 1/2 mile and galloped smoothly and strongly the last 4f. I'm itching to get this horse to the track, but have to find time to fix several transport problems. With the track threatening to freeze we opted for riderless speed work for both. After a warm up and as fast as we could drive them with mud caked in their shoes it went 2f + 2f +2f + 4f. Probably about 95% speed with 60 seconds rest between. Nice work. Conditioning and toughness continues to improve.
Thurs. 12/4: After 2 hard w/os in a row we're off.