Thoughts On The Florida Derby

This race had me scrambling to open a Twin Spires Account as, without the Danger To Society wild card, the Superfecta had turned into another handicapper's dream with the order of finish of the first three virtually pre-ordained, and Stately Character, if you look at the training, being easily identified as"best of the rest". Alas, I'd forgot the necessity of Equifax approval before account activation. Oh well!

The race was certainly enjoyable with Quality Road flashing the speed of his sire (see Elusive Quality and his 1:07.2 6f on You Tube), and Dunkirk as every bit the clone of Unbridled's Song. And then, humor post race with a constipated Plecher complaining about the track while he might instead have explained the 37 cents worth of training he's given with his 3.7 million dollar colt. What where he and Gomez thinking to allow a speedy front runner able to hold his speed on this sort of track to get that big a lead?

But, we nit pick. Do these boys really want to get Dunkirk into the Derby or are their public goings on just for show to buttress up the value of their investment? First they buck the horse's shins where for 3.7 mil they'd might have brought in Nunamaker himself just to avoid. And, surely $150,000 earnings will get them into the Derby field where Dunkirk, probably coming off three powder puff Plecher breezes would be expected to run down the buzz saws developing on the West coast. The Derby has been a graveyard for many a high dollar Keenland purchase, and I'm recalling Momba and Cowboy Cal as well as Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat etc. You'll see their training or lack thereof documented on the blog.

The more interesting story here is Quality Road and whether we're getting a typical fan overreaction to a winning performance or whether this is indeed a superior horse. QR seems a very good horse, but we're going to find out whether Jimmy Jerkens can train with Dutrow and Nafzger or whether he's merely a Zito, McPeek, Shug McGhaughey, Mott conventional light trainer from the East coast now operating without their steroids.

Finally, I've been watching The Pamplemoose. There's something unwell developing here and I'm wondering if this horse will even make it to the Derby. The videos show a horse, kudos, breezing once a week but who otherwise gives the appearance of getting maybe a gallop a week and questionable husbandry. If you watch the handling in the videos, the details show, BUT we'll see how this one turns out. Back to bones on this blog, hopefully tomorrow.

Training:
3/27 and 28 Sat. and Sun. Off in the snow and mud. We've lost tack work in 2 out of the 4 weeks in March, but are ok with good weather blowing in.

Florida Derby

RR picks in order:

Quality Road by daylight
Dunkirk
Danger To Society
Theregoesjojo

Recent PPs too similar to separate on training alone. Relevant factors: QR as the best horse, concerns over Jerkens, McPeek training styles, D's training style in view of bump in class. Here are PPs (speed work) since 12/31/08

Number of works/races--horse--total furlongs of works/races

11-Quality Road--59
10-Dunkirk--59
9-Danger To Society--52
9-Casey's On Call--48
8-Stately Character--50
8-Theregoesjojo--46
8-Toby The Coal Man--46
8-Europe--37
6-Sincero--38

Training:
Thurs. 3/26 Riderless work in the mud due to weather: 5 x 2.5 all out.
Fri 3/27 Weather again. Horses surprise with energy after yesterday. 2 x 1 mile in :14s with full recovery rest between and warm up and warm down.
Sat. 3/28 Off. Lots of rain.

Best race ever?

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling II

On with the metaphysics of equine bone remodeling. Speculation as a manner of inquiry began, after all, with Socrates. We presume the stars are all aligned, and the biologic materials will react in an ordered universe just as God intended.

So, if as Remodeling I hypothesized, there is more to equine bone remodeling than human, and that one of the results from the speed event is a compaction of bone glue material leaving behind nano spacing, how long before those atomic size vacuums are filled with new bone glue, and, just as interestingly for the subject, after they have filled in, under what circumstances will they stay that way?

Anyone that's filled a grease gun or dealt with one of those machine grease canisters understands the powerful resistance when such material has sufficiently compacted. You can only squeeze the canister closed so far before the grease starts pushing back. And so, we may imagine, do bone glue proteins buttress up our mineralized, non-mineralized or partially mineralized collagen cells in that the greater the density the stronger the FR.

Hansma (to review--see images at bottom of post) puts this in perspective:

"Our findings so far on fracture resisting properties of adhesive noncollagenous bone proteins are, in summary, that they exist as substantial contributors to the overall fracture toughness in bone"

Let's us note that I've read nothing in Hansma about a "buttressing effect". Hansma deals more with the bonding of the bone glue, but he's looking at humans instead of horses.

But, we do know from Hansma and other research how bone glue proteins are layed down. Essentially this organic material bleeds out from the capillaries and then reacts enzymatically with other substances at the molecular and atomic level which creates its character. I'm sort of considering that bone glue might be the muck left over when the other chemical-atomic processes of collagen formation and mineralization have taken place, which would be a reason that bone glue is omnipresent throughout the molecules.

If you think about how the material gets to its location in the first place, and what process probably stops additional material from arriving, some probably sound conclusions are possible.

We may imagine that all this material arrives within the bone by leaking out from capillaries. But, as spacing fills, the leakage decreases as pressure from without starts to equal pressure from within. At some point the process of (physical) equilibrium is reached and further material can leak out only where additional space is created.

And, when you consider, the action of the forces of the breeze upon the bone materials at the microscopic level will create spacing in two ways: 1. by compaction, and 2. by heat expansion.

The compaction effect has been discussed. What about the heat effect which presumably might thin the bone glue aiding in its contraction? But, we'd expect the opposite effect of heat on the harder/hardened mineralized and non-mineralized collagen in that heat would cause these materials to expand.

AND, since this heat effect of expansion will last 12 to 24 hours and sometimes longer post race (feel your horse's cannon after race), which might also have the effect of expanding capillaries and speeding up the flow of material, can we think that much more material is going to be deposited from the capillaries into the nano spacing immediately post breeze than when the whole thing cools down.

AND, after the cool down there will still be an accelerated deposition of materials out of the capillaries because the spacing previously created will lower the pressure surrounding these blood vessels which will have thus accelerate depositing until an equilibrium again is created.

Thus, I'm thinking that fairly quickly post breeze/race there will be additional materials present in newly created spacing which will combine with the bone glue muck already there. And, let's put this in %. Let's say the existing bone glue post breeze will contract and everything else expand due to heat leaving 5% spacing that will quickly be filled up (within 48 hours). The 5% of new material then would combine with the old by OSMOSIS to create another equilibrium (materials spread throughout the medium in equal amounts), SO THAT THE BONE GLUE POST RACE WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO ITS CONSISTENCY PRE-RACE EXCEPT THERE WILL BE MORE OF IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There. Asked and answered. Next (after the Florida Derby, of course): How long and under what circumstances might increase in bone glue volume last is next.

Training:
Thurs. 3/26. After 2 days off we'll be back at it. Trailer in the shop for major surgery. An adjustable coupler on the tongue will be installed to cause the trailer floor to parallel the ground. The 18 inch wheels (as opposed to 17) on the new truck combined with an extra inch on the heavy duty gooseneck caused the trailer to sit at a 20 degree angle from the ground.

Below some Hansma images of bone glue revisted. Notice the 500nn size. This is large. Hansma's website has images all the way down to 50nn.
"A" shows collagen fibrils filled with bone glue.
"B" shows unmineralized colagen fibrils.
"C" shows mineralized collagen fibrils.
"D" shows crack formation in the "non-fibullar organic matrix.

Wed. Misc.

But, what a Santa Anita Derby shaping up training wise! Has this happened before in my lifetime? Although I previously fretted over lack of Pamplemoose activity post last race, they're obviously back on schedule and doing again what brung 'em. Chocolate Candy unfortunately probably will need the race, but I hope that Dorf keeps on with him regardless of finish. In the final analysis would you bet against Baffert?

Simultaneously Beethoven is sent out for a :59 and change after 3 weeks in a stall. I read a blurb a week or so ago by John Ward that B requires only light training.

Training:
Tues. 3/24 Off. The good news, it only rained 1/2 inch. Bad news: 5 of next 6 days show rain.
Wed. 3/25: Off. 2 off days planned after a hard week last week in anticipation of weather.

As The Crow Flies

How nice would it have been to be lined up there along the rail at Turfway Saturday watching the post parade for any last minute handicapping tips, and seeing walk by the most impressive specimen (if the photos are true) since Bellamy Road and Unbridled's Song in Hold Me Back, followed shortly thereafter by a second physical and breeding standout, Flying Private, who has the most speed furlongs for the year in this field. Was there anything more obvious in Saturday's race than to put an exacta on those two and then maybe another $10 on the same, and if you can make it back to the windows, $50 more? Handicapping heaven!

For this blog, of course, there's the question whether the close training look at the field accomplished anything. Well, possibly Flying Private at 24-1 might have aroused our interest a bit and we would hardly, with the Claire Novaks of the world have written that F.P. was an "even greater surprise" than Hold Me Back. Hold Me Back was a surprise for those with their nose stuck in the form, but Flying P was just an unexplainable oversight...Query whether a faster breezing would have allowed F.P. to hang on?

The training analysis otherwise seems upside down as all the horses truly trained finished in reverse order. My explanation below. But, for the period when the blog gets to performance is it an interesting question why horses such as Parade Clown, Orthodox, and Proceed B, who put up such a spirited performance around the final turn, fail to go on? We'll never know whether these horses would have run to the wire had they been a bit more stoutly trained. That is, of course, the question. Can we train lesser horses such as Orthodox to run with the likes of Hold Me Back trained presumably (and, hopefully) far softer?

A.P. Arrow and Bittel Road. I am without any explanation, althoughthe connections, you'd think, know what happened.

Avoid belaboring further for now except to note immodestly my "Conclude:..." final paragraph at the end of the last post proved spot on. More similar training analysis hopefully in the future. Methodology needs some tweaking perhaps. For now, the horse the analysis identified having the most speed furlongs for the year, Flying Private, was right there at the wire.

Training:
Fri. 3/20 Off
Sat. 3/21 Art: 60 days before the planned for first race Art accomplishes his first official breeze as about 1.5f in :13s. Went 3x2f with trot backs along the course in the 3/16 video as much of our track remains muddy from the foot of rain 2 weeks ago.
Rod: First gallop since Tues. goes 3 x 2f along same course fastest in about :17.
Sun: 3/21: Sticking our necks out a bit as the horses wind up doing more than planned, and probably a little more than they should, which violates every RR rule. I "think" they can do this workout, whereas the rules require 100% certainty that the horse can survive the workout.
Art: Trot, walk, slow gallop about 10 min. after yesterday's short speed work. He'd have an off day, but lots of rain coming in.
Rod: wanted to breeze, but this horse needs more practice before we call what he did today breezing. Rod has regressed again. 3 x 2f with trot backs fastest in about :15.
I was unhappy with the tack work and with rain coming in and the horses fat due to eating grass, I thought neither horse had done enough. Both horses then were driven riderless for a volume of about 3 miles in about 3f segments at 85-90% speed. I was redlining here, particularly with Art who has been off. Decidedly other than smart, and I was besmirching myself for this improvising on the fly idiocy the rest of the evening.
Mon. 3/22: We've now missed three days of predicted rain, and it's dry into evening with rain showing every day for the next 5. I drive to the farm and drive them riderless, just to get in some work, slow about 3 miles total volume with a bit of rest in between.

More Lane's End

An intriguing race is shaping up. Will The Lane's End results have any relation to analysis of training? Only part of the training shows, and there are other factors. Shipping, Garrett Gomez rides Bittel Road, A.P. Cardinal has a lot of natural talent--watch the Sam Davis, etc.

But, give it a try, and away we go.

The West Side Bernie love is hard to fathom. Last post throws him out along with Hold Me Back for insufficient general fitness.

What about recent work from 45 days out? Several of these suffer questionable recent training and seem fairly easy to throw out based on too little or poorly spaced recent work. As a e.g.,Proceed B nicely won his last race on 2/28, but can he maintain this performance with one breeze in :50 in three weeks against much better. Doubtful? Toss Proceed B.

On the same analysis toss: Bruce N. Autumn--no chance, Dynamite Bob, Parade Clown, Jack Sprat.

7 gone. 5 left. Bittel Road has the obvious class advantage, and the videos show some talent. Although BR has only 42F for the year, 18 of those furlongs are squeezed into the last 4 weeks with very decent speeds and spacing.. Seems it would take a well trained animal to beat him.

Flying Private--we know he probably gets the most work of the bunch. This horse is a throwback to D.W. (I don't work horses) Lukas of the early 90s. But, its 2009. Breezes too slow. He'll hit the wall. (and maybe then again, he won't. F. Pegasus + Unbridled. $700,000. Scary.).

Loch Dub is cranked up, and has some bottom. A threat.

Orthodox. Ditto. Very decent training job here.

A.P. Cardinal--Ok spacing, comparable bottom, shorter distances to his recent breezing, and one of the trainers on my personal list. Can A.P.C. hold sway with ability, and 4f type works?

My intuition says A.P. Cardinal, but

by training the picks, in order, are:
Bittel Road
A.P. Cardinal
Loch Dubh
Orthodox
Flying Private

(Edit at 12:50 p.m. KC time: The Lanes End field ranked by most number of speed furlongs 45 days out:

Number of works/Horse/number of furlongs
7 Orthodox 35
6 Flying Private 32
5 Proceed B 31
5 Bittel Road 27
5 A.P. Cardinal 26
5 Loch Dubh 26
5 Jack Spratt 25
5 Hold Me Back 24
4 Parade Clown 25
4 Bruce N. Autumn 21
3 Dynamite Bob 22
3 West Side Bernie 13

Is the critical period the training 30 days out from the race? Here they are ranked for the last 30 days 2/20 to 3/21, with comments:

Number of breeze/races/Horse/Number of Furlongs/Average Speed Per Furlong last 30 days

4 Orthodox 21--12.34/f--weird breeding, primed comparatively, but is going to get outgamed.
4 Flying Private 19--12.79/f--will slow volume still work. Doubtful. Note Bill's comment last post.
4 Bittel Road 18--12.05/f good, but it's all breezing without racing.
3 Proceed B 18--12.47/f after 2/28 they just quit with this one.
3 Jack Spratt 17--12.55/f easy to throw him out.
3 Bruce N. Autumn 17--12.31/f work spacing questionable. Dale Romans.
3 Parade Clown 16--12.39/f Same as Proceed B. Trainer we like to run "against".
3 Loch Dubh 14--12.03 Nice but its all breezes.
3 Hold Me Back 15--12.51/f Why is he in here?
3 A.P. Cardinal 13--12.23/f Again all breezes, but TALENT!
3 West Side Bernie 13--12.06/f--but last work is 9 days out. Loses the benefit!
2 Dynamite Bob 14--12.89/f No chance.

Conclude. None of this training overwhelms in any way. Certainly Bittel, Road, Flying Private--if he gets that superior warm up, Orthodox, and Loch Dubh stand out somewhat, but insufficiently to ignore talent. The last 30 and 45 days training in this case remain fairly consistent with the long term training and fail to change my earlier predictions of finish in "bold" above. Would strictly handicapping this race change the selections. Possibly! Will be interesting whether they run to training or something else.

Training:
Sat. 3/21 Now the crucial 60 days out from first planned race. Weather holds. Light breezing tonight.

Fri. Misc.

Maybe we avoid giving up on Papa Clem just yet as he ships to Oaklawn, and Gary Stute persists with his horse! Unfathomably, they steered Papa C inside in the mud with Friesan Fire getting the dream trip on the best part of the race track. You could interpret that Papa C was pinned in there by FF, but, maybe Stute and the jock would strategize to avoid their horse and his slightly inefficient stride on the heavy inside. Then Papa C in the stretch steers to the outside and holds 2d. Inside horse in the mud never has a chance? Street Sense and Curlin at Monmouth.

And meanwhile down in muddy South Florida, Jerkens with deep sympathies from KC, misses two works with his talented horse due to a mud, and makes observation that paddock schooling is as good as galloping over a muddy track. Now I know what to do if it rains around here.

Out west, by Mary Forney's ever helpful video, I was underwhelmed by The Pamplemoose 3/18 breeze. Naggy, small and possibly irrelevant but the horse in the saddling area seems a little sleepy and nonreactive. You notice the same in his track walk offs that Mary Forney specializes in. The little clip of the actual running shows the weak gallop of a talented horse that sees the track very little. Some T.P. red flags!

And then, The Lane's End:

1. Number of breeze/races for since 12/30/08 ranked first to last followed by number speed furlongs that show:

11 breeze/races-Flying Private 62F
10-Loch Dubh 51
10-Orthodox 45
9-A.P. Cardinal 49
9-Jack Sprat 47
8-Proceed 52
8-Bruce N. Autumn48
8-Parade Clown 45
8-Bittel Road 42
7-Hold Me Back 31
6-West Side Bernie 32
5-Dynamite Bob 44

Most of these did between 42 and 51f speed work since 12/30. Can we regard 9F difference (between 42 and 51f) in almost 3 months as insignificant in view of other factors that may apply, and say that in terms of general fitness for the year these are about the same. Maybe the Lukas horse, Flying Private stands out a bit, and we can eliminate the bottom feeders, West Side Bernie and Hold Me Back, although we should in terms of performance take note of the important periods 45 days, 30 days, and 7 days out. A further look tomorrow.

Training:
Fri. 3/20: With weather blowing in and we'll pay the penalty for last night's improvisation. Should have gone slow as planned so we could breeze tonight, before the rain. Instead, they're off with hopes of getting in the breeze work before the rain tomorrow.

Post Breeze/Race Remodeling

The "newest" (equine bone) studies by Robin Peterson DVM turned out merely to be further discussion the Maryland Shin Study.

There seems to be little new that I am able to find, but the nice Doc Peterson summary of Nunamaker presents some interesting points even if Nunamaker's whys and wherefores are growing a few whiskers in light of recent human research.

Nunamaker's concludes that fracture resistance (FR) depends on exercise load, and, interestingly, that a small increase in bone quality, size, density, etc. provides a geometric addition in strength. Dr. N notes: Appropriate speed exercise "stimulates" bone remodeling that is "quick" and "immediate" (as opposed to slow and long term), and the initial process (at least on the surface of the cannon bone along the angle of strain) involves the laying down of weak "fiber bone" (as Dr. N. terms it) under the periosteum that may be damaged in the form of bucked shins by a questionably conceived program.

I'd probably reword part of this summary from Doc Peterson by noting the remodeling processes (instead of remodeling) are engaged quickly and immediately. A fine distinction, but necessary to understand that surely Dr. N. was not claiming that fiber bone was laid down under the periosteum by the next breeze 3 or 4 days hence!.

Thus, it is the remodeling processes that we are interested in post race, and how they will work with passing time. And please note that for my example we are in fact dealing with an appropriately trained horse up to the speed event, and that the speed event was carried out appropriately to in fact engage these remodeling processes, which means that it had to last 4f and go in :12.5s for race appropriate FR.

I am continuing to think this through in a busy personal schedule. To date, I've come up with this as #1.

Post race as in humans at some point, however long it takes, osteo blast/clast remodeling will commence along the angle of strain just as Dr. N speculated. But, in horses, probably, there is a lot more happening post race in addition to osteo blast clast remodeling, and possibly these additional processes indeed occur quickly as Dr. N thought.

If the mineral lattices macro and micro compact and gird themselves against impending force during the breeze, post breeze they will rebound probably back to their original size. However, there is other material within the bone that also during the breeze suffers compaction.

Let's begin with the more malleable bone glue proteins that encase each cell, and consider what occurs when this substance that possibly has the consistency of very dense Vaseline compacts during the breeze. The nature of the such material is such that we may believe it will fail to rebound back to it's original volume. This has two important consequences: 1. the material will be more densley pressed against the lattice and presumably remain that way (although Hansma notes that the sacrifical bonds that tighten and shorten in response to applied force will lengthen again and relax on release of the force.) and 2. This squeezing and compacting of material will leave some micro or nano spacing behind, a vaccum if you please, TO BE FILLED IN BY NEW AND ADDITIONAL BONE GLUE YET TO BE LAID DOWN.

This two fold process, I am thinking, that leaves existing bone glue pressed more firmly against the lattice and new glue laid down into the spacing left behind will within a reasonably short period provide a slightly heavier bone more densely and solidly packed with bone glue. How quick, next post.


Training:
Wed. 3/18 Rod is off after his first official speed work yesterday.
Art: when will we get this horse's first breeze? The horse himself decides the question. This day with a cotton bandage protecting the frog Art is taken out for a 15 min trot-gallop as we continue to get his sea legs back, but Art takes off on his own and we get one nice 1.5f gallop in close to :13s with a nice lead change in the middle. Mark it down as Art's first official breeze.
Thurs. 3/19: Going fast every single night results in some rider fatigue so we decide on an easy riderless workout with breezing tomorrow. The best laid plans go awry again as Rod is really into it this night, and we decide to go with the flow: Riderless 4 x 2f all out. Will gallop slow tomorrow and have 2nd breezes Sat.

Training

I really am back to bones now, even though that next post will have to wait to tomorrow. Here's what our boys are up to:

Art: continues with his punctured frog that we've babied along with the saving grace that the horse has been able to work here and there with a cotton bandage. 3/8 to 3/12 was off for us due to a trip and weather. Art commenced galloping 3/13 to 3/17 with one day off. Accelerated on his own today, and the bandage seemed to protect the frog which has about 1/3 to the apex completely removed leaving only the very sensitive under-frog. The laceration that punctured into the laminae under the frog seems (finally) to have healed.

Rod: The silver lining with lazy Rod has been that he seems to enjoy his tack work. 3/1 to 3/7 with one day of rest in the middle, Rod did 3 x 2f with trot backs between the heats, gradually increasing his speed. 3/8 to 3/12 was off due to weather. Starting 3/13 Rod has continued with the same 3 x 2f. The video of 3/16 shows the final heat that day. 3/17 Rod does his first official acceleration some of which went at about :14 speed on the same 3 x 2f schematic.

Friesan Fire

How to extract myself from this one.

Look in the mirror and say, with the philospher of old:

I am wrong.
I am wrong.
I am wrong.

And, at least I'm right about that.

Who Will Win The Derby?

That time of year to stick the neck out a bit and display our Derby handicapping abilities, eh? Possibly being right is what really makes life worth living, and in this little horse racing lab we have the daily opportunity to test our abilities. I'm feeling pretty smug at the moment since I just finished picking a rather obvious long shot winner in tonight's third race at Los Alamitos at 4.5f. The 1/5 favorite carrying an extra 7 lbs was walked to the gate, came out 5 lengths in front of the field but predictably was run down by the entire field (which received more normal warm ups) when he totally locked up at the eight pole. My 5/1 long shot carrying 7 lbs less than field and receiving the best warm up got up at the wire.

It is with such impressive skills that I will now lay out my preliminary Derby choice, and I'm shocked that I've decided this year's Derby may be stacking up as much of a no-brainer as the last two. I'm equally surprised that my final deciding factor was a 5 second part of the HRTV Blood Horse video from today.

It's actually slightly more difficult this year as the February breezing schedule of several of these shows that Carl Nafzger disease is spreading quickly (and alarmingly for us small fry), and, as you'll see below, those trainers that ignore their recently sick peers do so at their peril. We'll probably see this play out in today's competitive LA Derby where you may expect several to run down Friesen Fire*.

First eliminate horses with insufficient talent. We subtract I Want Revenge who beat dogs in the Gotham, and, sadly, Papa Clem on this account. Also Friesan Fire although that horse has double grounds for elimination.

Some we can cross out solely based on who trains them. I'm figuring that if your training is unable to win with Hard Spun you're highly unlikely to do so with Friesan Fire or Old Fashion. There is, of course, that lingering question what daily slow gallops under 215 lbs. with an occasional breeze thrown in may accomplish, but, probably that was tragically asked and answered a year ago. Throw out anything trained by L. Jones.

Normally I'd eliminate Jerkens. But Jerkens has a very good horse, and is one of those Neo-Nafzgers by the breezing schedule. In the end I'm betting the Tiger will decline to change his stripes, and that Jerkens will be resting his horse into the Derby instead of breezing him, and so subtract Jerkens.

Hollendorfer? Reluctantly throw him out. I like Chocolate Candy, but that chestnut Dorf had a year or so ago that could do nothing outside Golden Gate nags. I calculating that the reason for Dorf's failures may be that he's one of those that works the heck out of them till 7 days out, pronounces them ready, and then keeps them in the closet the last 7 days before the race. Worked for Giacomo, so let's say this works once a half millennium. Throw out Dorf.

Can we suppose Plecher without steroids can win a Derby with his powder puff methods. Plecher with his intelligence is always a threat to wake up. I'm thinking next year, maybe (hopefully, for my choice)

Let's see. Who does that leave. Pamplemoose, Pioneer of the Nile, and Patena. Unable to comment on Patena as I've yet to see him. However, since Dutrow this year gets competition from the Neo-Nafzgers, throw him out. (Wild applause!)

Pamplemoose I analyze this way: Canani will most certainly screw this great horse up some way before the first Saturday in May. I already noticed P to show deteriorating musculature today. But, what if P really is being handled by Solis? P will remain the dark horse thus that could upset:

Pioneer Of The Nile. We learned how well Baffert is training of late in the Breeder's Cup. I'd doubt the rest of this year's Derby training academy at this point has the sophistication to deal with what Baffert is doing. But, what sealed the deal for me was that 5 sec. clip of Pioneer today on HRTV (Blood Horse) where he's seen bounding along at a slow gallop. Been a while since I saw a horse that bounds that well. Baffert + talent, I'm thinking, bodes trouble, and so, got to be, POTN!

*quible by noting 2 recent (uncharacteristic) Friesan Fire breezes. Today, maybe. Fades in the Derby, if he makes it.

Il Divo

Yet to hear this, hold on to your hat. Back soon!

Friday Misc.

A few photos for posterity. Winter 2008-09.

March 1 at left.





The new/old rig.














Dick Zind's house at right.
Truck #2.

The new hitch.
Heading north.
The winter track. Deer ahead.
Art sporting his bandage about 2/25.
Rod doing what he does best.
Training:
Fri. 3/6 The big news tonight is that enough of Art's injured frog has been pared away to uncover a nasty small puncture that goes below the tissue of the frog near the apex. Galloping, unfortunately, is opening this up and preventing healing. Looks as if we'll have to quit now with him for 1 to 2 weeks to allow healing, although Art worked riderless tonight with hoof in vetwrap. We aborted when he started limping, and the extent of the laceration was discovered after this work. Rod galloped 2 x2 trotting back to the starting point. About a mile total. Then both horses did a riderless 1.5 miles with a lot of spurting.

Robin Peterson DVM Part II

Dr. Peterson's Article continued:

"Already armed with information resulting from the experiment with pasture horses, compared to those which galloped two miles nearly every day, Nunamaker was ready to launch another study. If as the first study revealed, long gallops did not strengthen the bone any more than roaming a pasture, there must be another way to get the job done. Nunamaker reasoned that the way to achieve stronger bones would be with short, fast workouts early in the horse's career.

(the four sample groups of the Maryland Shin Study described.)

The reason that speed work is so important, Nunamaker said, is that when a horse is going slowly, the principal angle of strain is about 40 degrees out of its vertical axis. When this happens, the bone is going to remodel in the direction of the magnitude of the strains. When a horse runs at speed the angle of strain is much greater. So, horses on long, slow works remodel their bones for that training, while horses that breeze more often remodel their bones for racing.

...A Thoroughbred will train while walking, trotting, and cantering. Rarely do TBs (in many conventional training programs) run while in training. They only run (fast) every 10 to 14 days. Therefore, the bone remodels to what it feels--which is not racing.

The amount of speed work required to stimulate proper bone remodeling can vary on a horse-to horse basis, and there is often a fine line between too much and too little.

The problem with recommending high speed work, Nunamaker said, is that if you tell someone they should do high speed work, and they go out and do it for a half mile three times a week, they're going to break that horse down.We know there is a fine line in the critical time frame as to what is too much and what is not enough.

Armed with the info from New Bolton, Vet-trainer Fisher set out to establish a specific training regiment that would stimulate bones to strengthen appropriately.

Two years later, he was ready to report that he had come up with a plan that worked for young horses. Today, he is still using the same basic approach, although it has been somewhat refined.

Fisher Training

Once the young horses are comfortable doing 1.25 miles per day, the speed work begins and continues during what amounts to 4 months prep before racing (120 days!).

He begins speed work by asking the young horse to travel at a 2 min lick for 1/8 mile TWICE a week.

Then 1/4 mile at speed in :15s. then 3/8s in :15s, and by end of THREE months 1/2 mile at 2 min lick. (Note, these are just turned 2 yr olds.) But at this point this speed work is done every 5 days instead of twice a week. (Ivers would say they need to dump their spleens more often!)

During the final month of pep, the young horse will be breezing a quarter mile twice a week.

In between speed works, the horse is galloped or rested.

The theory is that after a speed work stimulates the bone, it must be given time to remodel before being subjected to speed again (--note "theory"). When a bone remodels, large cells called osteoclasts remove the stressed bone. The bone forming cells (osteoblasts) fill in the area with new material.

Fisher also discovered that track surface figured into the remodeling equation. If his were to race on dirt--which they were--they had to be trained on dirt if there were to avoid bone injury. While the wood chip track at Fair Hill is more forgiving, it does not trigger the bone to remodel effectively for the stress and strain of running on dirt (see "Barbaro".)

Fisher said his approach works. he rarely had shin problems. And, he adds, he has not had an increase in ankle or knee injuries as a result of the speed work.

Once the bone has responded correctly to the stimulus and has changed its shape by adding more density at the points of stress for maximum strength, it will remain that way. This point generally is reached when the horse is four years old.

At this point, Nunamaker said, after bone has changed shape, you could take the horse out of its training program and put it in any training or racing program you want, because its bone won't change back again." (Really????--I think Dr. N is strictly speaking about bucked shins. Otherwise, I question this!)

Next: "Newest bone study".

Training:
Wed. 3/4 Our temperature hit 6 degrees on 3/6/08. This year, even with snow very cold weather of the last week we've been able to do riderless speed work every three days (since last Fri.) 70 degrees today. Snows melted. A mess. Winter over, hopefully.
Both horses did riderless speed work in 2f bursts with rests between (due to mud), with very short full speed bursts here and there. Nice for the conditions.
Thurs. 3/5 Rod does a mile of walk trot under tack. Art is limping. I take a look. The cut frog from 2 weeks ago oozing puss from way deep in with a suspicious hole the size of a pinhead. Vet tomorrow to see if anything is in there.

Nunamaker/PETA/Dr.Peterson

As my search for optimal frequency of breezing/racing in terms of injury prevention proceeds--and note while I believe I know that speed work every three or 4 days will get the job done, the answer to the question in terms of minimal frequency i.e. the least we can get away with, remains unknown to me--I am, chronologically in terms of posting--at the point where we have the horse back at the barn after a race wondering how soon we need to go again for injury prevention, and how frequently thereafter.

Answering these questions presupposes an understanding of the bone remodeling process beyond my 2/19 post which summarized what happens within the cannon bone during the breeze.

I'd hoped to begin this with a summary of the present state of equine research, but was reaching a dead end as it seems we only have Nunamaker's work in the late '80s involving the Maryland Shin studies.

Eventually however the squirrel finds the nut. If you google, with low expectations, the subject: "Equine bone remodeling photos" you're as likely to find the name of Julio Canani's bail bondsman or a listing of this blog as actual equine research. Yet, this time, there embedded in of all things the PETA "Horse Lover's Forum" is a superb article by Robin Peterson DVM bringing up to date the work of Nunamaker et. al. regarding bone remodeling.

To avoid interrupting the flow of this article and its meticulous thoroughness, I'll print it in its entirety. It is long, but excellent. You may also follow it just by reading the highlighted bold sections and my comments in italics. There's some repetition here, but also much I've previously omitted that is new/old. Read closely e.g. and you'll get a scientific explanation of the grave danger of moving a horse trained on synthetics quickly to dirt.

Robin Peterson DVM
"The equine world is indebted to David Nunamaker, VmD PhD, an orthopedic surgeon and head of the University of Pennsylvania's New Bolton Center, for information on the role exercise plays in the formation of bone. Aided by grants from the U.S. Dept. of Ag., the New York Chapter of the HBPA, Grayson Jockey club, and the National Institute of Health (where are they now?), Nunamaker and his associates carried out in-depth research on bone development beginning in the late 1980s and continuing to the present (I clicked New Bolton and Nunamaker. Unable to see anything of note being carried on to the present.) that provided a great deal of information about the role played by exercise. Heavily involved in the early research with N. were Bill Moyer, DVM, formerly at New Bolton and today head of the Large Animal Medicine and Surgery Dept. Texas A&M, and John Fisher, DVM a horse training veterinarian (note Fisher's importance below.)from Maryland, who was the first to try Nunamaker's suggested approach for building strong bones in young racehorses.

The focus of their research involved bucked shins, but what they learned also provided enlightening information about exercise-induced development of bone.

(some bucked shin info omitted here)

Nunamaker's research revealed early on that casual, or light, exercise (she's calling 2 min. gallops light exercise) did not have a profound effect on growing and developing bone, but that more strenuous exercise did.

In an early segment of the study, four yearlings were purchased shortly before becoming two years of age. Two of them were turned out and never ridden. the other two were put into training that consisted primarily of two minute gallops nearly every day, but they were never ridden at speed.

At the conclusion of that phase of the study, the bones of the four horses were examined. There was no difference in the structure of the bones. The horses which had done nothing but roam a pasture had bones as strong as the horses which had galloped two miles on an almost daily basis. (Hence the term: RAFR, race appropriate fracture resistance.)

This indicated that galloping horses was not appropriate exercise to strengthen and prepare bones properly for the stress of racing.

Later research would reveal that working the young horses at speed periodically early in their careers would strengthen or remodel bone so that it could withstand racing stress. More about that later.

First, a look at how bones grow and develop.

Start with Cartilage.

Cartilage is a specialized connective tissue in which the collagen (a protein) matrix between cells is formed at positions of mechanical stress. In cartilage, the fibers are laid down along the lines of stressin long parallel arrays. This process results in a firm and flexible tissue that has great tensile strength. Cartilage binds together the bones that meet in joints, such as the knee and ankle.

Bone is a special form of cartilage in which the collagen fibers are coated with calcium phosphate salt. Healthy bone is a substance that is strong, but not brittle.

One comparison to bone is fiberglass (she's about to give a Paul Hansma type explanation). Fiberglass is composed of glass fibers embedded in epoxy glue. the individual glass fibers are rigid and strong, but they also are brittle. The epoxy component is flexible, but weak. The composite, however, is both rigid and strong. When a glass fiber breaks because of the stress and a crack starts to form, the crack runs into glue before it reaches another fiber. The glue distorts and reduces the concentration of the stress, and the adjacent fibers consequently are not exposed to the same high stress. In effect, the epoxsy glue acts to spreads the stress over the many fibers.

Bone is constructed in similar manner. Small needle-shaped crystals of a calcium-containing mineral, hydroxyapatite, surround and impregnate the collagen fibrils ) a small filament of fiber) of bone. Within bone, the collagen is laid down along lines of stress. No crack can penetrate far into bone without encountering a myriad of hydroxyapaite crystals in a collagenous matrix. Bone is more rigid than collagen just as fiberglass is more rigid than epoxy glue.

(an explanation of the structure of spongy bone at end of bones omitted.)

New bone is formed by cells called osteoblasts, which secrete collagen fibers on which calcium subsequently is deposited. Bone is laid down in thin concentric layers called lamellae. The lamellae are laid down as a series of tubes around narrow channels called Haversian canals, which run parallel to the length of the bone. The Haversian canals are interconnected and carry blood vessels and never cells. The blood vessels provide a lifeline of living bone-forming cells and the nerves control the diameter of the blood vessels and thus the flow through them.

With that rather pedantic, textbook explanation of bone as a basis, we can look into what happens to it as a result of exercise. We return to information provided by the New Bolton research.

Bone responding to Stress

In addition to learning that mild exercise had no real effect on bone development, the researchers also discovered that bucked shins weren't what many had thought the condition to be. The general consensus for years was that bucked shins were microscopic fissure fractures of the cannon bone that occurred when young, growing bone was placed under stress, such as race training.

Nunamaker found that bucked shins actually are the result of the bone training to respond quickly to the strains placed upon it. The result is that bone, when stressed, seeks "immediately" to form new a new layer of bone at the point of stress on the cannon bone. The "quickly" formed bone is periosteal or fiber bone and is more porous, and thus weaker, than the dense lamellar bone that is formed slowly over a longer period. In the process of the relatively rapid formation of bone, the periosteum is lifted and becomes inflamed and the horse is afflicted with bucked shins. (note importance of the words "immediately" and "quickly")

'We found that a horse chances the shape of its bone in response to training,' Nunamaker said, 'and, depending on what the training is like, you can just about change the bone in any direction you want. The way most conventional (race) training is conducted, a horse changes its bone in an abnormal way and not in the way it should change the bone.'

When you take a specimen of anything, he said and you cycle it for a long enough time, it eventually will break. this is called fatigue failure. When you take a piece of bone and cycle it, what happens first of all is that it starts to lose stiffness and bends more. As it starts to bend more there are higher strains on the bone, then suddenly something happens.

To accommodate the strains the bone tries to change shape and make itself larger. There is a fourth power involved in the equation here, and it takes only a little larger bone mass for it to become very much stronger. (Noted!!!!!)

Continue this next post.

Training:
3/2 and 3/3 off due to frozen bumpy ground and crusty snow. Luckily we were able to get in speed work on 3/1 and so, under Burch type training, if we can do more speed work 3/4 we'll maintain condition!

Derby Preps/Bone Remodeling

Pamplemoose's eyepopper reminded me, were somebody asks Jack Van Berg in his video, how we know if we have a good horse. Van Berg, eyebrow raised at the (dumb) question, "Well, if 20 horses are running and one of them is way out in front, you've got a very good horse or 19 others that can't run a jump." T.P looks like a good one, with some stride and action worries, though. Can we take it that Canani's primarily short (in distance) breezing program produced this result? I'm thinking there has to be more to the training than what shows, and that it would be nice to be informed of the whole program including the slow days. Will Canani now keep up the work, or back off as Dutrow last year. Should be interesting to dicey with this particular horse. Great story building, possibly.

And, nice race in the Fountain of Youth, but do little things tell for future prospects? Quality Road crosses the wire with the jock failing to change leads on the gallop out AND seeming for the distance of the clubhouse turn totally oblivious to the necessity. Result: Q.R. finishes his charge down the stretch with another 2+f on the same lead. Reminds of 2008 and lack of attention to detail by trainers B. Tagg and Eion Harty, good horses, sloppy work here and there. If Jerkins was cussing the jock post race for the oversight that would bode well for the horse. Otherwise, for me, avoid this bandwagon.

And, drumroll, it is now back to bones:

The 2/19 post summarized what happens within the cannon bone at the molecular level during the breeze/race. After the race, back at the barn, as we're confronting the flashing cannon bone heat and pondering the "what next" question, we transfer our concern to what happens with the bone remodeling process itself and how to get to point "X" RAFR (Race appropriate fracture resistance), and how to stay there with that process.

First question that occurs, is equine race horse remodeling similar to the above human illustrations showing remodeling primarily confined to osteoclast/blast destruction/reconstruction over time in response to events? So, is our horse post breeze/race remodeling process thus also limited to the osteoclast cells chewing away damaged bone cells here and there and the osteoblasts then coming in and building over time--probably 60 days--or is there something more to remodeling in horses compared to humans?

I came to a screeching halt in my analysis because the answer or even a way to analyze this is/was frankly unknown to me, nor was I able to find a quick answer at the Google. The horse papers mostly refer to remodeling as a process that just happens--a sort of mysterious event that we rely on as we go through training. Human papers concerned primarily with osteoporosis or fracture repair also provided little help, although finally I returned to Hansma's website and found some help.

And so, in fairly brief, and hopefully succinct terms over the next few posts, I'll post my thoughts on this and note that, yes,there's probably a lot more to race horse bone remodelling than what takes place in the human skeleton.

Training:
Fri. 2/27 to Sun. 3/1. Deep winter returns with 5 inches of snow. Both horses off Fri and sat. Sun. the snow was perfect for a riderless paddock run conducted to protect Art who's just coming back from his hoof problem-- turned out to be 2 miles total 4 x 4f with a minute rest between at 80-85% speed.