Harmony Training Center

Time to get show on road, rubber hits road, etc.

And so, last Fri. eve, I drove to Claremore, OK.  In Claremore it's Will Rodgers Street, Blvd, Gymnasium, Auditorium, everything is Will Rodgers this or that--am taking it Will was from Claremore or thereabouts.

16 miles South is a bump in the road called Inola, OK and just south of Inola is Harmony Training Center 250 miles from KC.

I wanted to get to Harmony early Saturday morn. specifically to see whether anyone was using the track, and whether there were any "riders".  There was not, and weren't.

To my surprise, on a Sat. Morn that one would think of as prime training time, the 6f track at Harmony was  devoid of horses and without a single hoof print.  I asked a groom--"any riders here?"  He had to think a moment before responding that "yes" there's a big one and a little one.

The track itself--see vids below--is nicely railed 6f training track with a surface of the red Oklahoma clay.  Too expensive to water this, of course, and so, basically the track is of fine red clay dust.  Unkown what that's like to gallop on.  Other than good probably, although clay dust, as opposed to sand, might be just what the doctor ordered for #148's still healing heel bulb injury.

I wanted to document my visit with vids and then the Kodak Playful Camcorder shot craps.  Tried cell phone camera, and only could get "camera error".  Good grief.  And so, document with Harmoney's web site.  It's less spanking new then the web photos show.  Interior of barns are sort of depressing--dark--they keep the window webbing down, likely to keep out flies, saw dusty smell to them, only a few horses in each barn--but, the place is decent enough to do the prelim. work.  We are--provisionally, depending on getting some things done shortly--on the way there, hopefully by June 10.

Harmony Training Center:

http://harmonytrainingcenterok.com/photo_gallery/photo_gallery.htm

Batil Kat

How's that as a name for #17?

The horses have gone on with their riderless work while transitioning to full tack work.  Likely tonight was last riderless and will do only tack work from here.

 #17, Batil Kat, is galloping up the same hill as the riderless work.  #148 Tee Pee Minister is about to trot in space. Would have happened last night except for early darkness.

Misc

Hoof in shoeing bucket breaks two (instead of

one) rasp.  #148 as prime suspect.

 I am in this trailer.  Now what.

 Food please.

Last night's warm up heat. Lack of light after 8 pm. scotched the others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYN40bfG_gY

Preakness After Thoughts

Real trainer of CA Chrome--Sherman?  Delgado?.

--Lucky Pulpit + Not for Love (instead of A.P. Indy/Smart Strike/Giants Causeway/Unbridled Song/et. al.
Backyard breeding on the comeback? Dam of Chrome first bred to Redattore. Foal died.

--the roustabout good ole boy owners (unable to keep their mouths shut).  this group might turn into a vodka glass before this is all over.

--track conditions--superb. Horses getting easily getting superior lift off track.  Social Inclusion in the stretch, less so.

--Bayern--badly stumbled out of the gate/then smashed by Ria Antonia/and again by Ria. Napranik declines riding aggressively (good.  Horse stumbles out of the gate that badly--rider should protect the horse and self --and play havok with RR exacta.)

--Chrome and Ride On Curlin--the two best trained horses + Bayern finish one/two.  How often does that happen?

--Perfect ride on Chrome!

--Social Inclusion trying to take a bite out of Ride On Curlin down the stretch. Hey, I see it everyday.  Horse racing to a horse is prevention from being passed by whatever means.  The preferred method (instead of just speeding up) is jousting with your pursuer.

--Social Inclusion  as a good/great horse--several nice pre-race vids of this horse.  Looks good instead of great horse.

--Social Inclusion folding up like a tent in the stretch--predictable.  Can horse breeze 4f one time in 19 days  and be prepared to go all out for 1 3/16th?

--Chrome and his two mile gallops.  They're going to breeze the horse one time in three weeks and expect a TC in a 1.5 mile race.  While Art Sherman frets over how "tough" it is racing again in "three weeks" woo woo, today's vids show Chrome fresh as a daisy walking the shed row.  Personal experience -- two mile galloping (as opposed to 1.5 miles or 1 3/8 miles as many do) produces superior fitness.  They go around there in close to :15s, get in several :14s, and we may bet that Delgado, the exercise rider of Chrome, is really the trainer of this horse in any event.  Delgado will get in appropriate speed work while Sherman is gossiping with the connections.  If Chrome stays healthy, are they on the right track doing 2 mile gallops for the 1.5 mile Belmont?  Many ways to peel the apple.

--How good is this story for the horse side of the sport? Would our journalists, Blood Horse/DRF/TDN/Paulick publish on the impact!

Handicapping The Preakness

PPs show strong potential Chrome/Bayern/RideOnCurlin Trifecta box with Q, which one will prevail. ROC  insufficient as a horse imo and will have his tongue flapping all the way around.

 Chrome has failed to breeze since the Derby although he's slow galloped two miles almost every day, and would suspect the exercise rider likely did a few zips here and there when the Shermans were looking elsewhere.  The blog noted small read flags here and there with Chrome training and then a much bigger one yesterday when Chrome--one day before the race--is galloped two miles in the mud.  Two training violations there--1. galloping any horse irregardless two miles on a heavy hard surface, and 2. galloping two miles day before a race particularly when one intends to take the horse to the track the morning of race day.  Chances of Chrome completing this 2 mile mud gallop without straining or even pulling a check ligament?  High!
(Edit: I see that Bayern galloped 1.5 miles in the rain Friday. I'd be doing that 1 mile max and likely would trot instead.  As to mud caused injuries will just say--been there/done that. 1.5 miles would be the very edge of where I would dare to go on that type of surface.)

Pressey's blog raised the Q why the old time trainer fails to do old time training.  The oldsters did a lot more breezing.  The oldsters also never slow galloped their horses into the ground as has possibly been done with Chrome.  Thus, as Doug O'neil did with I'll Have Another, the Q raises it's head whether they've traind Chrome appropriately and whether they've done too much, this time with the slow galloping both in the mud and too close to race day.

In contrast is the near perfect prep of Bayern, and we have a Baffert vs. Art Sherman matchup.  Who wins that one?  This is a tough tough call after Bayern's brave 1:36.1 mile in the Derby Trial stakes.  The horse has got the stuff to press Chrome.

In the end, I'd think Chrome, despite lack of breeze work, with just two weeks between races and with an accumulating snow ball of success has enough bottom to prevail.  We've seen this sort of conventional training succeed with other horses such as Wise Dan and Zenyatta.  They get a certain momentum including the experience of winning and pressing themselves that Bayern, a weaker looking horse than Chrome, lacks.

My pick:  CA Chrome, with some trepidation.

And, a strong strong Chrome/Bayern exacta.  The other horses are without any chance imo.

More Trailer News

Looks to be about 7 feet, floor to ceiling.

 2014 Oregon foal by Gold Brush--a Broad Brush stallion that I once owned, sold to a vet in CO, rescued by a young lady in Oregon.

Look at rest of Gold Brush's 2014 foals, including foals out of mares by Awesome Again and Redattore, here:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dreamweaver-Quarterhorses-Thoroughbreds/1243043072503789

And Now The Question:

Will this horse:

Fit in this trailer:

Demolition Derby

By the finish line the first time. And, as glancing at the PPs would have shown, Chrome is sitting in the catbird's seat. Best horse, best racing foundation, best training, best position, and for once the Derby goes as scripted to the delight of almost everyone.

Some misc. thoughts:

Danza got knocked around like an equine bowling ball and still was coming on.  Seemed logical to me they'd hold him back (at first blush).  On more creative and deeper thought, should they have known that Chrome would run the speed off its legs and that all the speed horses would be backing up into anything running directly behind?  Possible of course Danza unable to get out of gate. Would like to have seen D side by side with Chrome.

--yet to see a Derby with so many traffic problems? Watching this race in slo-mo half the field is avoiding somebody and several on multiple occasion.

--Why the traffic problems in this race--possibly because this was a unique Derby where most of the jocks thought their horse might win.  Everybody making moves, many simultaneously, with Vicar's In Trouble and couple of others mucking up the stretch run of the rest.

--Calvin B-o-r-a-i-l--the most hilarious of these is poor Ride On Curlin who credibly ran almost two races. Borail kept squeezing his horse to the rail, several times failed at this before he finally got through brushing the rail only to be stopped in his tracks by the next speedster backing up, and finally gets ROC to the outside to finish strong.  Keep on with that horse. Looks like superior training job.

--Commanding Curve--Dream trip.  Nice ride under circumstances.  I'd looked at this horse as such a nicely conformed big strong horse with race results only explained by who the trainer is.  Sticking by that the trainer criticism.  Likely we've seen the best of CC.

--track conditions--looking closely at the way horses were motoring, this looks like a difficult slow deep track, to me. Good for injury avoidance.  Bad for any horse trying to make headway.

CA Chrome TC prospects:  The horse is the best of this bunch by far and for numerous reasons.  We'll now hold breath to see what the trainer does with Chrome from here through Belmont.  Let's observe that there are problems with Art Sherman, articulate as he is for a 77 year old dude with 20 horses in his barn. You need a sharp eye to see the "little" things that bespeak of bigger problems.  Some have been detailed here.  Another e.g. the Sun. Morn vid showing them hosing the horse's legs as if he were a $5,000 claimer.  Good grief!  You'd think in a KY Derby barn they'd know how to ice a horse's legs in ice tub or boots, and, if they're going to hose--the purpose being to freeze the surface of the cannon bone---do you, for crying out loud, squirt the hose as they did or just lay the hose on the surface and let the water flow down?  Idiot stuff.

And, of course, an indicator that the cannons were warm after the race.  Hardly surprising but big red flag for a white stockinged horse.

Social Inclusion with his even more dysfunctional connections might await.  Will they wrap up on Chrome as Dutrow did with Big Brown, costing the horse the Belmont, or will they continue to train.  One would think Sherman, given his age, would have some training connections and wisdom with Sunny Jim Fiztsimmons and Preston Burch.  Will see.

Derby Pick

Vids give one thing, handicapping/ PPs often something else.   I tend to look for ability, attitude, appropriate strength and conformation, and also, handling in the vids.  E.g. Wicked Strong seems an unhappy camper to me, possibly due to lack of proper rest since he's right next to the track and listening to tractors working the track all night.  Wild speculation.  Who knows?

And from the PPs:   Danza and CA Chrome side by side with Samaraat in the #6 post position. The three legit contenders by their race records, then, come out of the gate side by side giving their jocks early opportunity for significant advantage.  Picture this going into first turn.  Surely Plecher and Violette horses will take back and let Chrome go, which we'd think he would do happily. 

The second handicapping angle is the speed in this race.  And also parts of PPs that may be being overlooked.  They go hand in hand here.  Who's the best current trainer?  Probably tie between Baffert and Plecher.  Who has the best PPs besides Chrome?  Take a look at Chitu!  4 races.  3 firsts and one second by 1/2 length all from the front.

Am unable to imagine Baffert doing anything with Chitu except going right to the front.  Baffert has been known for this in the Derby.  And, Chitu has that big body to intimidate those immediately behind.

Also out there should be Wild Cat Red.  Fairly obviously Chrome is going to behind those two and maintain a rational pace with Danza and Samaraat dogging his every stride.  Then there should be the rest of the pack each and everyone will be trying to close in the stretch.

Q in this Derby--will an "Orb" emerge out of the closer section to catch Chrome and Danza?  I'm thinking, no.  The three best horses, Samaraat, Danza and Chrome should be right there.  Danger to Chrome of course is that he's going to get tag teamed and wear himself out.  Surely the trainer and jock have figured how to handle.

Chitu fades late.  Samaraat and Danza right there, One of the other Plecher horses coming on.

Choice:  CA Chrome.

Rewatching The Derby Vids.

Thoughts that occurred on rewatching the vids:

Wicked Strong--giving off "unhappy" type vibes? Wash rack vid shows man among boy type. Absolutely perfect conformation and Jerkins has got the horse in good shape.

 Chrome--best looker, pound for pound.

Dance With Fate--insufficiently big enough/strong enough, possibly?

General A Rod--most appropriate looking horse in race in terms of conformation. They needed
to give this horse some speed work.

Vincearamos--unknown what happened to this fellow in the Blue Grass.  V gives very good appearance with his gallops!  Striking!

Ride On Curlin--every vid every day shows 2 min. galloping in the short clips.  This horse has done some work.  Another tongue horse.

Plecher--the human.  Does Plecher have this surface figured out better than the rest?  His horses just seem to float over the Churchill strip.  Subtle difference with the rest, but it's there.  Shoeing?  Riding for efficiency. Does Plecher's good mind and experience know something here?

The Contenders

PPs show one horse with recent blow away performances--CA Chrome--who also has a couple of stinkers in there-- verses a bunch of Pletcher horses all giving lights out type appearances, and a couple of others.  I rewatched all the Chrome vid, and actually found a site--the Thoroughbred Daily News--that has superb vids of all the horses from throughout the week.  There link is at bottom  of this post. Meanwhile, Blood Horse, DRF, and Paulick report continue to seem unable to figure the Derby vid angle.

My closer views of CA Chrome reveal a few more pimples the most significant being, imo, although Chrome looks good galloping at Churchill, he's motoring through that surface with more effort than a lot of these.  Some horses have a stride that gets lost in a deeper surface.  Watch his vids and compare to how easily in comparison all of Plecher's are getting over and through the surface.

Combine this with Chrome's less than stellar work schedule--he shows only 4f works, and at least the second to last of these show purely a 4f work without lenghty gallop out--one begins to conceive that this horse might be short at 1.25 miles.  Chrome red flags.

Possibly if this is correct and Chrome is taken down a notch or two by surface and inferior training, we have the type of evenly matched field that promises-as in 2013--another Orb flying out of nowhere. Since identifying this year's Orb is well nigh impossible given how evenly these show, the RR review will stick out its ancient neck and predict that one of the Plecher horses will win this race.

So, yes, I'm likely picking against Chrome.  Will make a final selection in the morning after handicapping the PPs.

_________________

The serious contenders:

Samraat--After watching the vids I removed S from my throw outs.  Despite my prejudice against works 8 days out (how often is this training method successful against better--really?)--that last work was at a mile and in a decent time.  This horse just has too much 1.25 mile type talent to be a throwout.  He looks terrific, his gallops are strong which somewhat makes up for the inferior spacing of the speed work.  I expect S to be right there.

Danza--vids show him skipping over this race track.  High energy colt at top of his game. D lacks the 1.25 mile type conformation, and yet the horse gives every appearance of sitting on a big big race.  Expert trainer with good pre-race warm up.

Dance With Fate--another giving off good vibes, and yet, do we pick a horse whose trainer is unable to figure out how to keep his tongue in mouth. Last Derby winner that went around there with his tongue handing out?  Good horse at top of game.  Might be right there with good trip.

_________________

The Rest

Uncle Sigh--my personal sentimental favorite, being an Indian Charlie type as our #17.  Well put together horse, very decent training, and yet, gives feel--similar to #17--of being a good instead of great horse.  Add that Contessa and Violette have shown year after year that their horses tend to fade instead of advance, unable to see it, although must note that both these trainers as many others are experiencing a training renaissance likely from the pressure of competition.  Reluctantly must pass on Uncle S.

Candy Boy--dislike the handling this horse receives.  Appearance of horse seems other than KY Derby winner type. PPs show--stride for stride he's generally behind instead of ahead.  Developing horse that might be in there.  In this field, doubtful, imo.

Chitu--the good:  Baffert trained.  the bad:  too big and massive to compete at the distance.

Intense Holiday:  1.25 mile type conformation and stride.  IH stride also seems highly attuned to this type surface. Somewhat doubtful that this colt gives off aura of serious athlete.

Medal Count:  I've admired Dale Romans type training.  This horse, like Chitu, just too massive to carry his weight for the distance.

Closer look at PPs tomorrow.  Will CA Chrome get tag teamed into submission?

TDN (Thoroughbred Daily News) nice vids here:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9Pkkcii-bmKOhlobqJlug

The 2014 Derby Throwouts

PPs are out.  Unlike recent past days of the '90s or early 2000s'--all horses show decent, consistent works and races going way back into their late 2 yr. old year.  All give impressive performances and appearance on the track.  How to separate?  Surely blogger's superior knowledge and experience can ferret this out (despite blog's dismal prediction record--but, hey....we've been good here at identifying those without any chance--another stab here although more difficult this year.)

Tapiture:  horse has one soft :50 work in 12 days. No way he's tight enough to be competitive, and that's aside from fact that Asmussen is somehow permitted to train here by KHRC.

Commanding Curve--somewhere within this blog is phrase "Dallas Stewart can't train".  They never change their stripes even if this colt shows nice set of works.

Ride On Curlin--sticking my neck out a bit in observing this horse, despite nice breeding, physically seems a cut below to me. ROC also has proven fairly conclusively in his PPs that he's unable to compete stride for stride with the best.  Expect ROC to get shoveled way back by the end.  Note to trainer--doing 7f pre race is good.  Doing 7f in 1:29 as first and only work since 4/12--otherwise.

Wicked Strong--will expect him to be coming.  My faith in Jimmie Jerkens is close to zero.  I know.  Alan Jerkens type works.  Can anyone this fat and out of shape know squat about athletics?  Doubtful imvho.  Something in the handling and training will stop this one way short of the win.

Vicar's In Trouble/Harry's Holiday/General A Rod:  What do these have in common?  Clueless trainer judging from his interviews.  Nice set of works, as every horse in the field does.  So, it's something else about the trainer that will doom these against better trainers.

Samraat:  I like the recent stand trainer Richard Violette took re the JC. More that know what they're doing need speak out in similar fashion.  Unfortunately trainer Violette continues to breeze his 8 days out.  Too long out to compete.  The old east coast training fail. (Edit 5/2: S is officially removed from the throwout list and onto serious contender list. See 5/2 post).

We Miss Artie--I'm taking Plecher at his word on this one.  One more that has to go for this race to make sense.

Vinceremos--looks like decent Plecher horse.  How far in Derby History do we have to go back to see one that stopped in his last prior race come back to win Derby?  Never happened?  Ok.

Wild Cat Red--horse I liked--and yet, looking at him, seems to be going backwards instead of forwards.  A hunch.




11 pretenders out of there.  That leave 7 legits to try to catch CA Chrome.
Our Training:
Lousy weather reaching new lows around here.  We've been able to keep up our riderless work.
Latest:
4/28:  disappointing 5 x 2f effort.
4/29  Heavy rain and rest.
4/30:  Wow workout this time on only a day's rest.  5 x 2f mostly in :12s and :13s.