The No Brainer Derby Pick?

Well, seems close to no brainer.

Eliminate some more:

Stately Victor: man among boys/and girls. who might be logical choice on a fast track. Michael Maker has come to the fore of late with decent training compared to these plus some big red flags also. Due regard to Haskin and his mudder theory based on pedigree, can we predict this late closer will hit the quarter pole with 30 lbs. of water and mud wrapped to him. And, big hoofs navigate poorly due to greater heaviness in mud. Love the horse but strictly other than a mudder to me..

Devil May Care: Plecher sans steroids. Nice build for off track. possibly sentimental owner type entry.

Dean's Kitten: I avoid in general being influenced much by pedigree, although it is sometimes a factor, but, Ide-El Prado for the
Derby seems stretching it to me. Beat horribly trained field inj Lane's End. Record fails to inspire.

Awesome Act: I am underwhelmed.

5 to go

Threats:

Looking at Lucky

Conveyance

Line of David

Sidney's Candy

Mission Impazible

Each should be tough,although Lookin at Lucky and Mission Impazible are near the middle (instead of at the top) of the speed work furlongs and numbers for the year. I'll decline to let Mission past this hurdle since it's Plecher. Lucky has Baffert and we know Baffert ratchet's up for the Derby. Lucky also is likely due to body build to be a very decent mudder. Throw out Mission due to insufficient work.

Line of David I really like despite what some others thought of that last breeze. He looked pretty good to me in a brief glimpse on Paulick. And he's near the top on works. Sydney's Candy has a heavier build that I fear will compromise on heavy going. I'd have expected a bit more energy from this horse in, again, a brief glimpse of vid. Thinking Lucky will pass these two somewhere if only on sheer class and experience.

BUT, it hardly matters because all of these are likely to be looking at the rear end of the no brainer pick. Whatever your own choice, consider. This horse is going to exceptionally tough to beat:

CONVEYANCE

1. he'll travel easily through the mud. 2. Best trainer. 3. Look at the record, good grief. 4. Near the top by margins in numbers of speed works and furlongs for the year. 5. Was it Holy Bull, the brood mare sire, that could run all day? 6. Look at those pre-derby breezes. This horse might win by daylight.

Final thought that I am always worried about synthetic track horses switching to dirt, but especially on the off track. We recall Pioneer of the Nile and thinking Sydney's Candy has had the least experience on dirt and is also a heavier bodied horse that will create more concussion.

Derby Rankings

Will be interesting, at very least, as to who emerges as winner from group below. I might get time for actual handicapping before the race, which I'll post. Can we guess that big heavy horses such as man among boys(and girls) Stately Victor will be without any chance? We know that Calvin Borel instead of Todd Plecher, has been training Super Saver of late. This speaks well for that horse, although, given his lack of work, could Borel do anything at this point which would stick? Maybe.

102 Conveyance

100 Line of David

90 American Lion

89 Dublin

88 Make Music For Me

86 Stately Victor

84 Sydney's Candy

85 Awsome Act

85 Dean's Kitten

78 Homeboy Kris

75 Discreetly Mine

74 Lookin At Lucky

74 Devil May Care

74 Back Talk

73 Mission Impazible

70 Jackson Bend

68 Ice Box

66 Paddy O Praddo

62 Super Saver

58 Noble's Promise

Number of timed speed events (works/races) for the year:

18 Conveyance

17 American Lion

16 Line of David

16 Make Music For Me

15 Sydney's Candy

15 Stately Victor

15 Dean's Kitten

15 Dublin

14 Devil May Care

14 Lookin At Lucky

14 Mission Impazible

14 Back Talk

14 Homeboy Kris

13 Ice Box

13 Jackson Bend

12 Paddy O Prado

12 Super Saver

11 Noble's Promise

14 Discretely Mine

Unknown--Awsome Act

Training:

Thurs. 4/29: 15 min intermittent spurts riderless + 10 min walk-trot under tack.

More Derby

2007-2009 analysis analysis indicated that although high number of speed works for the year/speed furlongs for the year type horses might finish behind the winner, by and large they're in the race gate to wire compared to their less exercised peers. For 2010: total number speed work (races/breezes) furlongs for the year:

90 American Lion

85 Awesome Act: estimated--they seem to breeze once a week.

74 Back Talk

102 Conveyance

85 Deans Kitten

75 Discreetly Mine

89 Dublin by D.W. (I don't work horses, Lukas). Close exam shows how competition these

days forces Lukas's hand, and how he literally outsmarts himself in trying to prepare his horse.

"Dublin is a little better than people think" by Lukas. May be. May be.

78 Homeboy Kris--query whether horses that have had problems should be running in the KY Derby.

68 Ice Box--consider whether a horse that has 4 speed works for the year in excess of 4f is a horse you'd want any $$$ on.

70 Jackson Bend. Easiest way to ruin a good one--politeness prevents an answer.

100 Line of David: are you surprised the highest worker won Arkansas Derby? Yet, i've seen horses looking as uncomfortable as this one in his last work there at Churchill. Probably something wrong. Hesitate to the windows on this one.

74 Lookin at Lucky: Baffert went light this year. Too light with Pioneer of the Nile, and even lighter this year. Baffert is getting old, or he knows something. Also possible a horse through a long campaign might respond. More on Lucky later.

88 Make Music For Me

73 Mission Impazible Typical Plecher undertraining

58 Noble's Promise Any surprise this great horse is hitting the wall? When you hire a trainer is it necessary to recognize the difference between a trainer and a used car salesman?

66 Paddy O'Prado (includes 12/31) Only 61 for the year. Romans is another of those on my "list".

84 Sydney's Candy

86 Stately Victor

62 Super Saver. Anybody think u can win Derby with nearly lowest # of speed F for the year?

There you have it. Rank 'em tomorrow.

Training:

Mon. 4/26. Off 6 days due to weather.

Tues. 4/27 10 min pasture romp as good as conditions allowed, which was very little, but a few slow spurts after the off time. 10 min tack walk.

Wed. 4/28 Paddock has blown dry in 30 mph winds. 10 min riderless play to bet back into it. Passed on tack work due to spook in wind.

Handicapping 2010 Derby?

Where to begin? By May 1, to be competitive, should a horse have 4 published works/races for each month of 2010? That would be 16. Below, a look at the numbers. At first glance there's very little to separate the field in terms of numbers of work, although our usual suspect trainers bring up the back end. Is it a sign of racing's demise that Rascal Flatts is singing the anthem? Good grief.

American Lion 17 works/races

Awesome Act foreign. unknown but looks to be every 7 day worker.

Backtalk: 14

Conveyance: 18

Deans Kitten: 15

Discreetly Mine: 14

Dublin: 15

Homeboykris: 14

Ice Box: 13

Jackson Bend: 13

Line of David: 16

Lookin At Lucky: 14

Make Music For Me: 16

Mission Impazile: 14

Noble's Promise: 11

Paddy O Prado: 12

Sidney's Candy: 15

Stately Victor: 15

Super Saver: 12

Tues. Misc.

End of April. Three dry weeks in KC in 2010 so far. 7 days into 4 days of rain, and we're still deep mud. Horses have been off. Begin again tonight. Multiple distractions. Maybe I'll take a look at Derby starting tomorrow. Bones, next week.

Sun. Misc.

How smart (dumb) is this? You take your synthetic track horse and breeze him 6f in the slop under 1:12 and 7f in 1:26 on Sat. before Derby when you might have waited all the way to Tues. for a better track.

From experience, the red clay KY tracks are very navigable in the mud at speed. Yet, we know: wet tracks cause geometrically greater concussion at speed. Add that Sydney Candy was conditioned on synthetics and the question becomes, can this horse survive such foolery in terms of any injury. Why would they take the chance? And, stop the questions on Sadler there. And, whoops. Just saw. Plecher horse out. Surprise, surprise.

For us, once again. About 2 inches of precip over 3 days and another 3 days to dry--a lost week, after 3 good weeks. How this will rate out depends on what follows. The horse has been off since Thurs. due to deep mud. Good Sunday to all!

Thurs. Misc.

Does hoof strike at speed press and adhere bone fibrils together? Or, tear them apart? I am having some trouble constructing an answer. Hence, another short post on our training + today's photos for the diary. The new 5 mega pixel three hundred dollar phone camera continues to disappoint with blurry photography.

Training:

3 weeks of good weather, and now 3 days of rain. Will weather undo us again? But, of late there's a feel of return to normal. We'll see. A good month of May could translate into summer racing.

Tues: 4/21: late to the farm. 10 min riderless spurts + tack work which Nob aborts due to spooking. Zero risk riding. Must start earlier in sunlight with this spook ball.

Wed. 4/22: Arrive in time for sunlight, but, today dark/overcast. 10 min. short riderless spurts + 10 min of trot-gallop weaving our way through usable parts of the egg carton pasture. Limited gallop, Nob gets at least 5 spooks in the overcast going. Blinkers possibly. Would like to avoid and hope horse will grow out of this. Misbehavior can be handled. Spooking with a high center of gravity 6'1" rider and horse turning on a dime, dangerous.

Thurs. 4/23. Rain, but normal off day.

Every spring a problem with the tractor. Hydraulic fluid has leaked into the oil pan over the winter.

This morning's overcast pastures.
The aging resident of honor. Lawnmower, at left.

Tues. Misc.

Our training, while I'm putting next one together:

Sat. 4/17: 10 min riderless bursts in paddock + 10 min trot-gallop. 25% gallop.

Sun. 4/18: 30 min of trying to catch 'em. Never did. Lots of riderless runs with a few spurts and yours truly getting a whole lot more exercise than the horses. I am imagining things in that it seems to take me longer to get from one end of field to other than it used to.

Mon. 4/19: 10 min trot gallop. About 50-50. 3 weeks of decent weather now!

Theories

Theory 1: equine speed work presses on bone fibrils, reducing spacing between them, and possibly causing fibrils to adhere together.

Theory 2: adherence would be caused by 1. the crystal calcium blobs joined together(were the image clearer, this is highly organized material)and 2. bone glue proteins located in nano spaces between fibrils.

Theory 3: Theories 1 and 2 are incorrect. During equine speed work there is an accordion effect on fibrils whereby with each stride fibrils come together and then separate again as hoof leaves ground and becomes air born.

Theory 4: there is no spacing between racing equine TB fibrils since pre-race speed work has already eliminated (over time) any inter-fibril nano spacing that may have existed in the unexercised horse. In this sense the fibrils have already optimized in terms of density by the time we get to the race.

Weighty questions!

The below representation from Hansma meant to demonstrate bone glue sacrificial bonds during fracture also shows inter fibril nano spaces(unfractured fibrils at the left). These were measured by Planck as 2nm. The image e.g. is probably about 500 nm.

To consider the 4 theories we need also consider the organization of fibrils and fibril arrays into the larger structures called osteons. Note below on the above right "collagen fiber orientation":

The above image shows the manner and position of fibrils in the osteon. Visualizing this organization during speed work, is it a reasonable supposition that pressure on the osteonal structures would extend to individual fibrils and fibril arrays? The same process would work on the non-osteonal cortical bone outside the fibrils that extend to the bone's surface (the shins!).

If indeed speed work would press the fibrils together, how might this effect post-race damage, remodeling, strength, etc.?

Training:

Mon. 4/11: Off.

Tues. 4/12: Dry all week. Unable to believe it! w/o aborted after 15 min intermittent riderless bursts on craggy ground due to sprung shoe. Lucky for once, as horse this date is scheduled for shoeing, as opposed to a" newly applied" sprung shoe that would have ticked me off severely!

Break Through(?)

The epiphany occurs. Uncertain just when. Things (may) have come together, finally. What is happening post race in those very warm to the feel cannon bones? Maybe we're a little closer to understanding.

This requires some technical explanation with aid of a few oft repeated images. Way back when the effect of speed work on a crystal lattice (right) was conjectured as having a compressive effect whereby lines connected by the blue dots would at the location of the blue dots slide together for a distance of half a nano space. The image, for purposes of discussion, consists of one bone cell, the though being if all the bone cells in process of speed work contract ever so slightly the entire bone will be contracted into increased density post race. This contractive effect at the molecular level was thought to be temporary, and was followed by a bounce back effect over a few days that would restore microscope bone to it's original pre-race shape and position, unless followed within a certain time by a 2nd speed work--or so it was speculated.

Since those suppositions much new research info has been added. E.g. the idea that mineralized bone lattice resembles in any way the crystal lattice of the material "glass", which is represented by the image, above right, is obviously incorrect. The bone lattice at the nano level looks nothing at all like the crystal lattice.

Instead, our bone cells are Type I Bone Collage Fibrils as imaged by Hansma, below.
The blue dots are the HA mineral platelets, and instead of being connected by lines, they are inter spaced with water and organic material. Moreover, we discovered these fibrils self arrange in bundles, as represented by the image from Planck, below:
but, these fibril arrays, instead of the organization above may be in various diffuse patterns noted in the image from Planck below which is identified as "level 4".
If I could blow the above up a bit, the pink image at the lower right shows the spacing in nano terms. How this may appear in real life terms is shown in the image that follows, a Hansma blow up, presumably fairly live cortical bone from a cow. Notice the spacing between the fibrils!
The experiment involving the above is to question what occurs to this tissue as our horse motors down the track at speed, exerting 12,000 lbs/sq. inch of pressure on these molecules/bone cells, which is about three times the pressure exerted on the tibia of a human sprinter. And, please note that the present analysis involves a possible effect on calcification from this. I'd previously hypothesized an effect contractive effect (see above), and a "rearrangement" effect on organic bone glue proteins with both of said effects providing over time and upon reinforcement by subsequent speed work--an effect of density, buttressing and strengthening. Will get back to the calcification part, shortly.

How does this all come together into a reasonable conclusion?

The key could be, as I am considering, to understand the structure of fibril arrays, and the nano-distances involved.

First, please note that the distance between two adjacent fibrils in those banding arrays is infinitesimally small--2 nms nano distance- there is spacing between the fibrils albeit microscopically tiny in the extreme!!!

May we thus suppose that under pressure of 12,000 lbs./sq. inch and the heat which that generates these fibrils would be pressed together during the speed work so that perhaps there is zero distance between the fibrils after a sufficient number of strides, and that post race, due to this pressure and heat build up the fibrils have adhered together eliminating nano spacing between them??

Significance/ramifications, next post.

Training:

Sun. 4/10: Third dry day of the year. 10 min. riderless spurts. Farthest these last due to conditions is 20-25 yards. Tack was 10 min trot were we stop on the turn arounds. Trotting Big Rod--pure torture. He can gallop, though, and we're into that soon.

Growing Legend Of Z

Circa 1983 I placed my first live bet on a horse race. My fat secretary was heading up to Ak Sar Ben for the weekend, would I like to bet on a horse? I instructed Ms. Sherry, who dutifully complied, to place a $2.00 win bet on the largest horse in the field. The horse came in second, and my handicapping career was born. Am thinking the huge Zenyatta provides a recent example of the big horse advantage With her stride gobbling up 1/8 more ground, at least, than the opposition, and a very decent training job, she's tough.

And, the TC races. Oh my! I'd noted from a cursory look at Arkansas Derby PPs the only training job had been done by Sadler. We know e.g.Lukas for this day and time fails at galloping and breezing at sufficient speed, and a few other instant calculations.

And there is Odysseus trained by an idiot finishing about were expected. May we safely label as a certifiable idiot any trainer entering a Grade I race with the last speed work 10 days out?

I've made a bit of a break through in my thinking on bones, and will post that next.

Training:

Fri 4/9: 10 min of short riderless spurts in slightly better conditions. 15 min of tack walk in pasture too soft and wet to trot.

Sat. 4/10: After two days of speed work, confine to tack. 2d "dry day" of the year. 15 min. walk-trot with our stumbling spook bunny who is embarrassed by our neighbor on a T. Walker and sans helmet and vest extended trotting along the fence line beside us. They made quite a scene, although I was considering, in a professional sense, the folly of the attire in these ground conditions. I guess they made it back.

On With Bones II

Onward and yet closer to the crux. Take a bone collagen fibril by the tail, sling it x number of times at y amount of force. Vary this. What happens and when?

Whether anything happens at all we solve by slinging into perpetuity and presuming at some point there will be an effect. Each micro-point along the way we increase force from zero to infinity and measure both the effect and at what specific point the effect begins. We are materials scientists, and so we take out our calipers and scopes to obtain data which we then put into our calculations to make sense of a large and confusing number of possibilities.

From the information we extract the common sense and obvious assumptions which apply to our horses, as follows.

This all begins, of course, with a version of primordial soup that make up bone tissues. These are being acted on by slow moving physical and chemical processes until that moment that we take up and start to sling the fibril. We may suppose that our slinging either accelerates or damages processes that migh have taken place in any event, or possibly create new processes.

First we recognize what forces are applied to the fibril by our slinging. In addition to physical force there is heat build up as is normal with application of pressure and movement upon any chemical material. Electrons speed up, temperature rises, pressure increases, etc.

May we suppose the interior of the fibril--the white in the image, which is water/organics/cell components-nucleus, mitochondria, etc. might experience the effect we get churning a glass of heated water. The semi-liquids rearrange, materials such as calcium salt ions disperse accelerating to equilibrium etc. Might the (blue) HA mineral platelets push against each other and move as a group toward the opposite end from our grip?

What, in practical terms, might be the effect of all this? I am thinking

1. Available materials such as calcium are more evenly dispersed hence more available to mineral platelet growth.

2. Might vascular circulation increase causing a materials/calcium dump into the cell interior leaving material behind for construction/reconstruction?

2. More space is created, temporarily, in the cell interior permitting possibly additional newborn platelets to occur that might previously have been crowed out. According to Planck, mineralization is good (for strength).

Consider also what might be happening to those mineral platelets coating the outside skin of the fibril. (These fail to show in the image probably because the Hansma lab stripped them to isolate the single fibril.) I'm supposing constant slinging at sufficient force will also move those coating blobs closer together creating more room for additional blobs, but perhaps more importantly "rearrange" the mineral lattice of each blob "ad hoc" to force being applied--i.e. instead of random organization of calcium lattice, might we eventually get very pointed and organized calcium within each blob, and also blobs organized in specific patterns???!!!

Continue next post.

Training

Tues 4/6 Off, rain.

Wed 4/7 Off, rain. probably 1.5 inches total.

Thurs. 4/8 pastures too wet for anything productive. Riderless play in muddy paddock for 10 min. spurting where we could. Horse into it in nippy temps. Where is "lazy" Rod these days?

Tues. Misc.

Video 4/4/10. How bad are ground conditions? One has to watch were one walks in our riderless paddock now days. While filming the ground I got idea to film the whole workout, and forgot to shut the gate. That was after spending 10 min to get him in there. Pardon my french. Tried to run around barn to cut him off, but, he gone.

Training:

Sun. 4/4: Big Rod "recaptured". 10 min riderless play work with 25 yard bursts on the good part of the course. Tack was 15 min of walk-trot around divets in still very wet pasture..

4/5 Mon.: 10 min riderless with 25 yard bursts. 10 min trot under tack. First day of spring in KC, and ground hard enough today so we could weave our way through to some trotting, and with only one serious stumble.

4/6 Tues. Off

Sun. Misc.

Next week, back to work. How bad are things, training wise? Lol. When the best conditioned animal on the farm is the 20 year old cat, pretty bad. This also shows ground conditions, though I need to learn to focus this camera.

Training:

Fri. 4/2: Off. Rain

Sat. 4/3: on Wood and Santa Anita Derby day our conditions are wet, but we got in some riderless gallop in the mud with 30 yard spurts, and walked for 20 min under tack. too wet to trot.

Thurs.Misc.

Ready to roll, April 1, 2010.
Our ground conditions. Sample from section of the track we use for speed work. The whole 250 yards is like an egg carton.
An on board view . Other than green is a 1-2" divet.

I'm maybe slightly disappointed in this new 5 megapixel camera. Expected a little sharper imaging, perhaps. How bad is the ground? 25 year bad. I've never been anywhere as messed up as our pasture and running paddock are at the moment. Typical horse. Murphy's law. Terrible ground and lead footed horse problematic at the trot even on pristine surface. Big Rod is down right dangerous on this. Our rider is spooked with this stumble bunny. Plan is to get to galloping next few days, where he's very sure footed.

On With Bones

More than a year of bone posts and hopefully the blog has set out some basis for looking at FR. Per the February post I am ready to take the pictured collagen fibrils by the tail and sling them hard 240 consecutive times to simulate the horse foreleg striking the track surface during a race.

Can anything be learned from this concerning minimum frequency in getting and maintaining FR (fracture resistance)? Let's go at it, understanding in the image the blue are HA mineral platelets in various shapes and sizes and stages of development within a single collagen fibril, with the white being water, organic material, nucleus, mitochondria etc. These images are mature fibrils already primarily mineralized, as opposed to new borns that would lack the HA platelets.

We grab one end of this and sling. How much force to our effort? We will approximate that force with which the forleg strikes into the ground, but how much force is that? We have Tom Ivers' anomalous assertion of 12,000 lbs/square inch, yet, by our eyeballs is it really that much?

To get a true feel of how hard that "thud" is when hoof meets track in :22s probably you have to either be on the horse and feel the jarring that comes which each hoof strike at speed, or you need have a perfect camera angle to see the true force preferably in slow mo.

And, may I reiterate there is a marked difference in the amount of force as the horse increases speed. Somewhere between a horse doing 13 sec furlongs and :12s, the stride style transitions from ground flicking to ground pounding. This transition completes at :12.5 sec/ and force of what is now pounding increases with increasing speed into sub :12s, etc.

This attempts to convey that visually just looking at a race there appears to be far less force than there is. One ride on a horse at speed will quickly convince that this is optical illusion and that there's at least the equivalent force of a hammer striking the track surface somewhere between light and medium force with every single stride.

So, our "slinging" of the fibril is going to be fairly severe. I have equated this process with taking a half full 10 inch long oval canister of axle grease and slinging it hard 240 times. The grease inside the can will coagulate at one end and achieve probably it's near maximum density. With respect to a slinging a Type 1 Bone Collage Fibril in this same manner, we need take note of characteristics of the material compared to axle grease and then speculate on what may occur.

Training:

Left click to enlarge. This is our running paddock and shows the standing water ground conditions we've had in KC for the entire month of March for those times we had other than 6 inches of snow. This photo was taken 3/29 but this week we finally get some sun and wind, with rain holding off.

Mon. 3/29: This horse is going to kill somebody at the trot. Continually stumbles and falls on his face even over pristine surface. For Big Rod, impossible ground conditions. 10 min walk trot.

Tues. 3/30: Ground starts to improve a little, and able to do a little more trot. 15 min.

Wed. 3/31: 20 min walk trot. Ground is primarily dry but with egg carton ground conditions. pasture is going to require a lot of work to make our track gallopable.