Miscellaneous

We cancel training only after careful consideration. This was the weather two miles from the farm last night as I was driving back to check whether the rain was as heavy there as downtown. And, indeed my inspector Rolling Rodney the cat was surveying the scene. But, the feet sinking a little too deeply in the mud was the final indication that we'd either risk losing multiple horseshoes working in the paddock or we were left to squish through the pasture.

The final decision: cancel. But, the sun is back today, and we'll be able to gallop, do a few short zips on Friday and on to a breeze with a couple at Eureka on Sunday.

Today's Training:
5/28/07 Mon Day 3 Burch 2x1f and 2x2f at about 80% speed due to footing.
5/29/07 Tues Day 1 Burch: Off
5/30/07 Wed. Day 2 Burch Off due to weather

Weather

Looks familiar. So much for tonight's training. We're on the bullseye of every front that's gone through for nine months. This is really tough!

The Merry Month of May

Just a few pics as I'll take it easy today. As it seems with every May we've had a good month training wise. The older horses are ready to begin serious race prep. It's raining in Eureka today and tomorrow, but, hopefully we'll be there Friday or Sunday depending on how the breezing at the farm goes.

The first picture shows the clouds near the farm last night, a daily scene for the last five days. But, the rain held off again and we did a nice breeze for our six year old Acesmash--the big horse pictured without saddle. It's getting late for Ace. He has to win by the middle of July or he's off to another career. Also pictured, the lower barn. They're letting it go instead of painting it. The bulldozers are to the edge of the property, and everybody knows this will all be "affordable housing" soon. Pictured also from another day, Nob preparing his mount.

Today's Training:
5/27/07 Sun. Day 2 Burch: 10 min riderless trot-gallop slow with older horses.
5/28/07 Mon. Day 3 Burch: 2 x 1.25f riderless at 80% speed. Aborted due to lack of traction, then 2x2f at 80% speed. 10 min tack walk.
5/29/07 Tues. Day 1 Burch: Off.

Back In Business

With much gratitude to this fine fellow for inventing the internet we're back in business sooner and quite a few dollars to the better than we might have been.

"Donny" called me on Memorial Day from Midway Ford requesting permission to send out my radiator to be "rodded" to remove corrosive build up he'd witnessed as the coils became visible on draining it.

Since I'd googled the subject, as diplomatically as possible I explained to Donny that in our case the overheating was sudden and dramatic instead of gradual over time which is what you see when corrosive build up causes the problem. Explained to big Don that I was glad he called my attention to the corrosion, but, since my pockets are more lined with lint than money, and we do need our truck this week, would he please follow directions and just drain and flush and replace the thermostat. Will do, said Don, but, it's still going to overheat.

This time I might have the last laugh. I picked up the vehicle and the gage on the 20 mile drive home was stuck on the "r" on NORMAL the whole way. Knock on wood we have the truck back. Thanks, Al Gore.

Yesterday, Memorial Day, was the fourth day in a row I drove to the farm with a dark cloud right over the top. Our prior three days training all had a rain shower either before or during. But, yesterday the rain held off and we got in some really good work. The oldster's all did 3 x 1.5f breezes--about all I can get away with with the grossly overweight Nob.

Thanks to Lynda for the Northern Dancer comparison. I've been suggesting that to Art. Hope he's listening!

Today's Training:
5/26/07 Sat. Day 1 Burch: 5 min riderless slow gallop, mostly play. Tack work rainout.
5/27/07 Sun. Day 2 Burch: Rained lightly right before we started making everything slick. All horses including Art trot-galloped riderless off and on for 10 min. Tack work again rained out.
5/28/07: Mon. Memorial Day, Day 3 Burch: With everything appearing to be dried out from several very light rain showers over the last 4 days I wanted to do 4 x 1.25f riderless at near max speed. Here is what we did: 2 x 1.25 f at about 80% speed. The horse is completely failing to get a hold of the track. Two stumbles in the process cause me to abort. Must be slippery under the surface as Art is holding back. Decide to use the speed he's comfortable at and finish with 2 x 2f at about 14 sec/f. riderless. 10 min walk under tack. We should be trotting shortly.

Catching Up

This diagram illustrates what I've been about the last few days as I've been distracted from the blog trying to get my various vehicles up to snuff. Old equipment produces sudden repair problems, and this time problems with car, truck and tractor have struck simultaneously.

With the truck it's the cooling system as shown in the diagram. There's a lot of possibilities there for a highly expensive repair job. But, thanks to the info available on the Internet I'm able to instruct to Midway Ford specific trouble shooting instead of giving them carte blanche to charge me whatever they please to find the problems.

So far we've by-passed the heater core (see diagram) which was leaking. This failed to solve the overheating, and so today they're draining and flushing, and checking the thermostat. The order taker assured me they have a technician who knows both that you drain and flush engine and radiator, and also how to do it. I'll have to take that on trust, and am waiting for their call as I write.

While I'm waiting a few thoughts:

1. Good to see 60 year old Early Fires in great form in Hashin at Arlington, which was also a really nice race on the new polytrack, which looks great. Early still looks like a kid on board, and since I'm a little too close to that exact same age it does the heart good to seem him still going strong.

2. Will polytrack overcome mindless idiocy: It seems otherwise as we have the example Great Hunter out of Belmont. Let's see: Derby 5/6. Next breeze is on 5/24 in 1:00. Injured. What a surprise. But, you can still maintain a trainer's license even with this sort of unbelievable stupidity.

3. How is little Art doing? In a word, well. The training is set out below. Let's say that in terms of natural ability, we're in this thing. The young fellow flashes it every day. Typical Storm Cat--strong shoulder, perfect rear end, nice balance, lots of natural energy and speed. Now, if he'd just grow. We're back to 15' 2.5" at the moment. The height seems to fluctuate day to day.

Today's Training:
5/22/07 Tues. Day 3 Burch 4 x 1f riderless at about 90% speed. Looking good.
5/24/07 Wed. Day 1 Burch: threat of rain. all horses off.
5/25/07 Thurs. Day 2. Burch: 1.5 miles riderless gallop intermittently about 2f at a time. Nob rides three a day, and this is Art's scheduled "off" from tack work.
5/26/07 Fri. Day 3 Burch: 4 x 1f riderless at 85% speed. Was looking forward to this one sincce we just replaced the queens plates with level grips. But, after the nice fast work Tuesday, the horse looks flat today. Whoops, forgot to pick the hoofs before the work, and mud is packed in there, which explains his lack of footing. Too dark for tack work,
5/27/07 Sat. Day 1 Burch: Scheduled day off, but with incoming weather all the horses are bouncing including Art. So, let him gallop in the paddock on his own, and he motored around there riderless for about 5 min playing all the way. Loves to run. Started raining just before the tack work. So, again, no tack. We've had about 7 days of scheduled rain and got very little.

"To Bring To Fruit The Most Exalted Plans"

"One mind is ample for a thousand hands". Quoting the one hundred year old Faust, ever the eternal optimist. Mephisto, however, sees things quite differently:

"With all events in souring ferment, from first immersion to interment, till life becomes a shadow throng, parading between ding and dong."

Unsure which way I'm swinging today after yesterday's Eureka trip was aborted a quarter of the way in due engine problems.

Pictured above the 1979 Ford F-350 and the 1975 horse trailer. They've seen better days. The dent in the roof of the horse trailer is from some long ago collision with a low hanging roof at a Holiday Inn somewhere off the interstate in Illinois. To compound the situation we suddenly have a "grass problem" at the farm as a metal part supporting the tongue of the brush hog has broken off the 1966 Allis Chalmers D-17. Also pictured is our oblivious and messy eater Amart just before his evening breeze.

So, today it's off to Midway Ford in hopes they can get to the truck back sooner than the 30 days it took them last time. I pretty much know the verdict will be a cracked block, but, I'll wait to hear the mechanic's report before actually contemplating suicide.

As for the tractor, that's another really tough one. Where do you find somebody to repair broken unweldable medal on a 1966 tractor?

The "exalted plans" are on hold, temporarily. Better news soon equipment wise, as it could hardly get any worse.

Today's training:
5/21/07 Mon Day 2 Burch: 1.5 miles riderless slow in 2f heats. ten min walk under tack.
5/22/07 Tues. Day 3 Burch: 4 x 1f heats riderless at 90% speed with the fastest older horse leading the way. 90% is about as fast as it gets running in a circle with 25 yard straightaways. Art could have done more, but, think we'll stick to this a couple more times for tissue strengthening purposes. Without rider last night as Nob disappeared after the Eureka thing. Weather coming in. We'll see about tonight.

X'd

When you drive 28 year old equipment(see photo) there tends to be a bit of continuing tension as you may keep yourself entertained contemplating the parts of truck and trailer that may momentarily fail and leave you stranded the middle of nowhere in who knows what kind of conditions with four horses on board fighting heat and flies.

I'm other than the type, but, when I'm transporting horses there's always that little knot in the stomach based on anticipation and past history. I never know exactly when and where the hammer will drop, but, it seems, trips to Eureka have hardly ever been dull.

Such it was this morning when the little knot started forming as I was topping off the radiator of the 1979 F-350 and it took two full gallons, what the heck?!

Just for clarification, I recently conducted a $3000 maintenance job on this truck, and I've been test driving it for the last two weeks without problems. We headed out just before sunrise and less than 3/4 mile a hissing. Lift the hood and vapor emanating from the engine block. Cracked block maybe? But, it stops as I'm watching it, and then, except for wall to wall morning rush hour traffic, we have an uneventful 40 miles to Olathe, Ks. At that point I see water vapor on the windows, shortly followed by the vapor smell. Nothing wrong this time except the radiator lost all it's water. Luckily I have 3 gallons on board. This trip obviously is over. Small stuff really in the horse racing scheme of things, and we head back with $30 worth of Quick Trip anti-freeze in tow. Only as I'm driving into the farm do I realize for the umpteenth time I've confused the oil temp. gage with the water temp, which has the arrow on high explaining suddenly also the strange noises from the engine. Lucky we made it back. The horses are thrilled.

I got into a tussle with a neer do well trainer back in 1998 at the KY Horse Center. This idiot was just in from Belmont Park and was ridiculing my equipment. Little did this fellow know that for what I've spent in horseracing I might own a fleet of 30 to 40 brand new F-350s. Personally, I prefer to put my money in horses, though I'll confess the old truck and trailer that have served us so well are getting a little long in the tooth. Shall we say, the day is coming. Maybe it was today.

Oh Well! Farm breezes tonight, we'll sleep all this off, and then on to Plan B in the morning.

Today's Training:
5/19/07 Sat. Day 2 Burch: 1.5 miles slow riderless gallop done intermittently and 10 min tack walking.
5/20/07 Sun. Day 3 Burch: 4 x 1f riderless speed work at 90% speed. 10 min walk under tack.
5/21/07 Mon. Day 1 Burch: Off.

Eureka Downs

Here it is. The site map to "The Racing Capital of Kansas". If you search the map carefully, just east of Wichita you'll see a pink star indicating the location of the Green County Fair, and Eureka Downs on U.S. 54. When we enter the stable gate we like to see the "Track Open" sign. When there's a threat of three drops of rain it goes the other way.

The location of my farm is just north of Kansas City where the black dot for KCMO is. A 175 mile trip in all at 7 miles/gal. for the old '79 F-350 and 1975 Homemadehorse trailer, which is actually a converted stock trailer with a solidly reinforced floor. We travel down I-35 and then catch Highway 75 to 54 at Yates Center, then 30 miles west to Eureka.

We'll be heading that way tomorrow or Wednesday making our initial foray. I'll only take a couple as little Art has yet to beintroduced to the trailer.

Eureka is only racing one day a week this year. Hard times I'm supposing. We'll see what things are like when I get there. I'll breeze my two a couple of furlongs, then, in the trailer and heading back to KCMO. I'm hoping for a mid to late June 4f race for three of them. I have a six year old unraced horse for whom time is getting short.

Today's Training:
5/18/07 Fri. Day 1 Burch: 10 min walk under tack.
5/19/07 Sat. Day 2 Burch: 1.5 miles slow gallop riderless 2f at a time. 10 min walk under tack.
5/20/07 Sun. Day 3 Burch: It went something like this: 3-4 min of warm up and then 4 x 1f heats at about 90% speed. The horse was galloped for about .5f into the heats then driven the furlong. The little fellow is quick and effortless. Nice work! Ten min walk under tack in area where he'll soon be trotting and a little first trip out of the training paddock.

Beat By A Late Lead Change

Faust: "How can I rid myself and breath? The bell but tinkles and I seethe."

Mephistopheles: "Of course such chief annoyance must turn all one's life to ash and dust".

The devil making fun of Faust reflects the small irritation that will stick in Carl Nafzger's mind when he fully analyzes yesterday's race. The "chief annoyance" in this case will be a late and skillfully corrected lead change by Curlin which allowed that horse enough energy to catch Street Sense in the stretch.

Let me explain this. For at least a decade I have preached to my jocks what seems utterly logical. After you turn into the stretch instead of automatically changing to the right lead at the 3/16 if you'd wait another two strides to change the lead, would you have more horse at the wire?

Horses change leads because they tire on one lead and go to the fresh rear leg. I've always figured that in the hard charge down the stretch the right lead will start to severely fatigue just short of the wire, and so, if we delay the lead change a little we'll have more horse at the end.

In practice I was never able to get a jock to try this, and, when Nob started riding I learned that really it's the horse that decides to change the lead at the 3/16. Despite Nob's best efforts we have never been able to get a horse to delay the lead change with any consistency.

In yesterday's race this happened automatically when Curlin's positioning prevented a lead change at the normal spot and Albarado skillfully corrected Curlin in midstretch. From there on it was other than a fair fight with the tape showing Curlin bouncing off that late lead change and running down the tiring Street Sense at the wire.

A few miscellaneous thoughts on the Preakness:

1. Curlin had the far better jock in this race--smaller, creates more efficient stride, much better timing of the moves. Albarado corrected incorrect leads not once but twice. Did you see his skillful change when Curlin stumbled onto the wrong lead coming out of the gate. A lesser jock would have allowed the horse to go right on with the left lead.

2. Car Nafzger is a great trainer. But, if you want to win the Triple Crown do you need to pay attention to the little stuff? Here are some things I noted:

-- No aerodynamic silks for SS. They say the aerodynamics create half a length.

-- Different style shoes on fronts and rear. Unknown what Curlin wears, but, you watch the two horses, Curlin has the smoother more efficient stride.

--The strong gallop the day before the race under a 155 lbs exercise rider--and I guarantee that with the weight of the jeans and boots it's every bit of that, taking unnecessary energy out of the horse. I'm ok with the gallop, but, where was Borel?

--The 7f gallop out on Tuesday--too much too close to the race for a horse trained like SS.

--The trot the morning after the Derby upset the whole schedule between the races. Without that trot Nafzger might have planned the training itinerary much more effectively. I noted the negative body language as they were leading the horse out that morning. Mental fatigue--horses get it too.

--I have no argument with the use of Calvin Borel. He's a good jock and decent guy, and probably the one that is available to Nafzger. However, Calvin might run this race quite differently with 20-20 hindsight. Faulty, questionable race strategy between jock and trainer? Why let a horse of this ability fall that far behind and then essentially have to make a 5f move to get in position. Those sorts of things can get you beat.

As to the winner, in my prior post as to Asmussen I fudged my negativity by including an "Unknown". We'll see how this progresses with this nice horse?

Today's training:
5/18/07 Fri. Day 1 Burch: 10 min walk under tack.
5/19/07 Sat: riderless gallop in the paddock by himself for the first time. Horse handled being by himself like a seasoned vet and did not diverge from the directed path to seek the other horses but once. He was slow galloped in heats of 2f at a time with short rest periods for about 8 minutes. I'm guessing he galloped all told 1.5 miles. Nice moving horse with a high cruising speed. 8 min walk under tack.
5/20/07 Sun: Day 3 Burch to come.

Preakness Biorhythms

John of "The Race Is Not To The Swift" blog recently had a post on "biorhythms". Any effect here on the Preakness?

To achieve the moment of peak performance do we want the biorhythms--whatever that term really is--optimal and aligned? Put another way, a perfect training job may still in the end be affected at race time by the mood and bodily systems all coming to naught or fruition at the whim of the horse. And so, considering the Preakness we might wonder in what sort of physical condition and general mood today is Street Sense and his competitors?

Those who train horses would, I believe, understand the point to be made. For myself, I have two racers. On race morning they've been as different as night and day.

When I get to the barn Saturday morning on race day my Aylward invariable is whinnying at the fillies on the walker, and generally bouncing off the walls. I observe this with the satisfaction of seeing my carefully planned physical, nutritional and mental "peaking" working to perfection. No way this horse can lose today, at least based on his attitude and energy level this morning.

My Groovin' Wind undergoes the same pre-race week routine as Aylward, and yet, as sure as the sun will come up, on race day, when I get to the barn, this high energy horse will exhibit dull behavior. He's just standing there batting an occasional fly, dull eyeball, refusing feed and generally appearing as if he needs a good night's sleep. What gives in the race day demeanor of these two horses?

I'm still trying to figure it all out and of late have added in my own knowledge the endocrine system, thyroid, pitutiary, adrenal and so on, to the equation.

And so, will our Preakness competitors be affected by time of day, time of month, differences in time of racing and training, gut bacteria level, the carbohydrate cycle, travel, lasix, and whatever the trainer might be injecting or feeding, and so on? A definite yes, by my experience, and part of what makes training a horse interesting and perplexing! Let's hope today that everything is aligned for each horse, they're all "up", and we'll get to see them all perform at their physical, mental, and biorhythmic best!

Today's Training:
5/17/07 Thurs. Day 3 Burch: 3 x 1 f riderless nearly full speed.
5/18/07 Fri. Day 1 Burch: 10 min. walk under tack around outside of paddock. Nob says he's got a little more work to do before we're confident trying to trot. Small, potentially dangerous horse here due to size, and we have a "no risk" riding policy.
5/19: Sat. Day 2: yet to come. to post later. Plan riderless slow galloping and tack work.

Preakness Ponderings

Just a horse, right? Such a fine line there is perhaps between the magnificent performances of Street Sense and the inherent vulnerability and fragility of this species. Street Sense probably has little understanding of his unlikely position as potential winner of the 2007 Triple Crown. Like any horse, he just runs, and maybe more than most due to his excellent training, he's able to do so without undue stress even while his connections may fret at this schedule which forces a tough race two weeks from the last.

Carl Nafzger seemingly has done almost everything right. From the start of January perfectly spaced breezes gradually strengthening the horse without any real pressure, racing when the horse was fit, and conducting the time between races with an instinctive sense of what it takes to win and also preserve the animal.

I have only a few disagreements with Nafzger's handling of Street Sense. That trot 15 hours after the Derby was highly questionable. and, I wonder about the fairly hard gallop today one day before the Preakness. I'd have preferred this gallop take place Thursday, but, you can sort of see Nafzger's thought process here. Tuesday SS breezed 6f in 1:12 3/5 where the TT Times video stopped and probably was heading to 7f in 1:26 or 1:27. Nafzger, like any competent trainer is thinking "cannon bone", and after the Derby, then this Tuesday work probably a little farther than he wanted, Nafzger would have been going "oh,oh" better take a couple of days off and let the bones recover. Likely, correct and right on, but, now he's in the awkward position of having to gallop day before the race. A lesser trainer would have avoided the track altogether--think Larry Jones---and, for myself, I'd have to think carefully about the absolutely correct galloping schedule here.

Fran Jurga's blog revealed that Street Sense is wearing St. Croix racing plates--normal grips on the rear and low toes on the fronts. You can see my opinion about using different "styles" of shoes front and rear, and my opinion of the brand "Thoro'bred" racing plate low toes at

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2007/04/toe-grabs-conclusions.html

Two observations:
1. The St. Croix low toe, unlike the Thoro'bred, seems the same style shoe as the regular toe with simply a lower toe. The Thoro'bred low toe is a much thinner lesser shoe than the Thoro'bred regular toe. Thus, it looks like--from the St. Croix website--that the St. Croix low toe gives sufficient protection instead of being a "non-shoe" like the Thoro'bred low toe.
2. The above referenced post notes my dislike for different styles on the front and rear. Watch Street Sense carefully--you'll see that slight imbalance in his stride that comes from different rates of turnover for front and rear caused by the different style of shoe. You can especially see this in the TT Times video of the last Churchill Breeze.

Finally, a word about Hard Spun and his trainer Larry Jones. Jones is a totally opposite personality from myself, but, I really identify with a trainer riding his own horses althewhile volunteering that Mr. Nob is so much better a rider than Jones. L. Jones is a likable sort of "good old boy". However, there are deficiencies here in basic competency compared to the competition that Hard Spun, to his detriment, will have to overcome.

This will be a really great race! Let's hope they all make it around safely and in good health!

Today's Training:
5/16/07 Wed. Day 2 Burch: repeated by mistake: 12 min of 2f slow gallop, rest and 2f more. 8 min walk under tack.
5/17/07 Thurs. Day 3 Burch: planned on 4 x 1f 3/4 speed riderless bursts with older horse. Here's how it went: before each 1f fast there was about 1f slow warmup into the heat. After 3 x 1f I realized that instead of doing 3/4 speed both horses basically were going near all out. So we had 3 x 1f at near full speed. Art between the heats instead of resting insisted on fighting with his buddy. Only way I could stop it was getting 'em going the other way for the next heat. After 3f of fast "and" the warm up preceding, it hit me suddenly that, given state of training, maybe i should stop. Since there was doubt in my mind, the RR rules required me to call it: "when in doubt always make the conservative decision". This was a nice work with the little fellow showing good speed without being at all hard on himself. It was done in the dirt paddock to achieve some concussion. Avoided tack work, we'd done enough!

The Preakness

The din of information overload makes analyzing anything just about as difficult these days as being without info in the first place. So, let's ignore everything, all the handicapping stuff, the Blogs, the Forum discussions, and also that excellent analysis by the blog and commenters on Left at the Gate, and look at the Preakness solely from the angle of the training. Even though there are numerous factors influencing any race including the sort of inexplicable type performances that horses occasionally put in such as I'mawildandcrazy Guy recently, it starts and ends with conditioning. How big a part does the horse's fitness for the event play in the final out come? My guess--about 75%. Of course, it's a relative thing. Depends on who you're running against, and the training of the whole group. With that in mind here's a look at the field and what we know.

1. Mint Slewlep shows 6 races or works in six weeks, but mostly at 4F. Earth to Robert Bailes (trainer): "the race is 1 3/16 mile.

2. Xchanger: the trainer, Mark Shuman (trainer for Michael Gill) admits and even boasts that he trains soft and that Xchanger has been trained soft. Since X shows 4 works or races in six weeks I agree. Caveat though--talented horse with nice 5f and 6f work last two weeks. I poo poo soft trainers and pay attention to the better among them at the same time. If the horse is competitive, it would be due to anything other than a rational reason. So, toss.

3. Circular Quay: 6 works and races in 6 weeks. Typical Pletcher. This is a nice horse, Pletcher trained. And, I put more stock in Pletcher training than most, from what I've been seeing lately. There's a Derby bounce and a nice :48.2 work 5/14. CQ qualifies as best of the rest.

4. Curlin: 7 works or races in six weeks on the surface indicate a conditioning trainer. But, too many 4f works in here for my taste which likely are predictive that this trainer is the brainless, mindless sort who fares well against competitors of his own ilk but is far outclassed in this group. Unknown though. The horse looks like he has enough talent to outrun his connections and I expect him to be on CQ's flank coming down the stretch.

5. King of the Roxy: same deal, Pletcher. 6 works and races in 6 weeks. Talented speed horse with 6f work 5/12. Legitimate threat to SS but for one thing. Last race on April 7. This horse will lack racing fitness and fade before the mile marker.

6. Flying First Class: 6 races and works in 6 weeks. This horse is getting in condition. He's large and heavy--the Hard Spun sort. I've theorized that the old softer trainers such as Lukas are unable to compete with the new guys without changing their ways. Has the old fellow changed his stripes. Doubtful. Expect FFC to run like Charismatic. Watch that Preakness and see if you can see any horse actually running coming down the stretch.

6. Hard Spun: Congratulations to L. Jones for belatedly understanding his horse needed some speed work before the Preakness. But, jeez. Can a guy who professes to be in horse training for 43 years figure this out before hand? Hard Spun has talent. Additionally the 180 lbs + exercise rider is a conditioning factor that on occasion probably provides Jones with a victory.
Can HS's Derby bounce be maintained on two weeks of 1.5 miles galloping slow under 180lbs and a :24 work. Answer: no. Up the track. On reconsideration--there's enough here for HS to compete with Curlin for 3rd. Too bad he's trained by Jones instead of Nafzger.

7. Street Sense: Charlie Whittingham training should prevail in this race. One worry. Nafzger said he was done as of Tuesday. That's a little early to be done, Carl. Before the Derby I observed if training means anything this horse will win in a runaway. That still goes.

8. C.P. West: trained by 4f Nick Zito. Nothing more needs to be said. Toss.

Today's Training

Quick post while finishing the "warm up" posts. Yes, we are heading to the track, presumably next week. Last Sunday one of the oldsters was galloped a little too fast. And then, the next day, I pulled a Carl Nafzger(Street Sense trotting 14 hrs after the Derby--very questionable imo.), and, instead of resting the horse I used him as a companion for Art's riderless gallop. The horse showed a little muscle tightness or soreness, and so on Tues. I declined the Eureka trip to breeze just one horse.

But, the itinerary is set. The replacement "trailer helper" arrived today, should we have a flat tire. The broken window on the trailer front is patched up with duct tape, tires inflated, oil changed on the '79 F-350, insurance purchased, health certificates and coggins have arrived. And, let's see, what else. Checking the bank account. omg. And, I'll have to e-mail Eureka and get ship in permission, and then, on their dark day on Tuesday hopefully the first trip. It's really come down to now or never for the Eureka meet which ends July 4, and then it's on to Anthony Downs (near Wichita) first two weeks in July with plans to break the maiden of my unraced, albeit very talented six year old. By mid July then, if all goes well, we should have some conditioned horses and a developing Art for the coming meets. This is the plan of the moment.

Once we get to Eureka the preference would be just to stay there, presuming help could be found to take care of the horses. We'll see on this as staying depends on a lot of factors such as stall availability, help, riders, and also avoiding anything that might hinder Art's development.

Today's Training:
5/14/07 Mon. Day 1 Burch: 2 x 8 riderless gallop at about 2:10/mi. speed. 10 min. walk under tack.
5/15/07 Tues. Day 2 Burch. Off. Rain.
5/16/07: Wed. Day 2 Burch: our "trainer" forgot we were in Day 3. Thinking it was Day 2: Continuous riderless gallop for about 12 minutes. A little more than planned. But, slow with the older horses and for 2f at a crack, then a little rest and 2f more back and forth, opposite directions. The horse looked tired. Lack of sleep suspected. An older horse bothers him when he tries to lay down, which is a problem. 8 min walking under tack without any horses present around the outside of the paddock. We'll be trotting in a few days. Unable to recall a youngster I've had less trouble with in the breaking process. Day 3 tonight.

Back On Topic And A Short Review

I began my posts on "Warm Up" on April 22 and then got side tracked by the Derby, the weather and also my reading of Woody Stephens Autobiography "Guess I'm Lucky" and Jay Hovdey's "Whittingham." Since this is a blog I feel a constitutional right to get distracted from the topic at hand, but, that's all done now, and I'd like to conduct a short review of what I'm trying to do, and then get on with it. Of course, the Preakness is coming up, and I do have some thoughts on what looks to be a real nice race!

I started this blog with a view to training my new yearling for the Derby. That's other than to say that we'll actually make it to the Derby, the odds being what they are. However, I see zero reasons to train a horse for anything else than the very best. And so, there's two questions for us with our new now two year old horse named Amart: 1. can we muster the considerable effort that it takes to get a horse in the staring gate, and 2. how do we train this horse.

Number 1 above as to my energy and carrying things on is a work in progress that I'll comment on from time to time. Anybody that has ever trained a race horse will understand where I'm going there.

On Number 2, the training, I'm looking and still learning to conduct the best training program I can put together. I stated early on that I was trying to duplicate the training of Preston Burch as expressed in his book, and then I set out to explain why that training instead of so many other possibilities. And, of course, with my recent reading of Whittingham, we have yet another and very effective training program to consider.

I began posting on why we're doing Burch by first discarding other available programs. The first program looked at was traditional conventional training: defined, described, and pros and cons. I concluded that this style of training is uncompetitive and injures horses. I'm presently describing exactly how conventional training injures horses, and I've reached the point of describing the "warm up" which I will continue with from April 22 next post.

How is our training of Art going? The present status might fairly be described as the "it's one thing or the other syndrom". Mostly it's been the weather, but Art, unlike my older horses, has also been plagued over the last two months with hoof problems. I could dwell on the weather situation, which was unusually horrible this year, but, my tendency is just to go on.

We trained as much as we could through the problems, and, the horse while far short of where he might have been, has made some progress in general strengthening and conditioning. There is now a base to build on, and, I believe, (knocking on wood) that we'll be making fast progress from here.

So, next post it's back to warming up and how conventional training, specifically, injures horses.

Today's training:
5/12/07 Sat. Day 2 Burch: riderless gallop slow in the paddock and 7-8 walking under tack.
5/13/07 Sun. Day 3 Burch: 7-8 min riderless work in paddock with older horse--mostly play, but several short 3/4 speed bursts. Avoided pressing horse today. 10 min walk under tack.
5/14/07 Mon. Day 1 Burch: The speed work yesterday was light, and so, it was decided to do some serious slower galloping today given the state of training. This is the first day since the recent layoff that I've done serious work instead of just play. The horse in the company of an oldster was driven around the paddock in 2f heats as follows: 8 x 2f at continuous riderless gallop at about 2:10/mile speed. But, speed was maintained all the way through each gallop instead of playing around as in prior days. Horse looked a little weak doing this. then, 10 min. walk under tack. Horse is doing a nice job with his tack work.

Imitating Whittingham?

"It boggles my mind that other trainers do not follow Charlie's lead."

Chris McCarron's quote deserves a little closer look. The same sort of thing appears in Staaden's book "Winning Trainers" concerning Tommie Smith who won Sydney's premiership 33 years in a row with the question being asked why other trainers were failing to duplicate the methods of T.J. Smith.

There is also an interesting blip in Staaden's book when Whittingham was told of T.J. training, which involves three breezes or a race per week that Whittingham would just shake his head in disbelief.

Both of these trainers, Smith and Whittingham, were "conditioners". Though Hovdey's book omits the details as to frequency and speed of gallops, you get the impression of Whittingham relative to his contemporaries as a "hard" as opposed to "soft" trainer, and that he won races simply by having his horses fitter than the opposition. This is exactly the method of T.J. Smith.

And hence the question, were are the imitators?

At some point in the future I'll take a close look at successful trainers, managers, and coaches and what characteristics they share which makes them successful, and by the same token the characteristics of the unsuccessful trainer-coach. For this post I will simply observe that imitating a successful trainer, even if you know exactly what they do, simply hardly ever happens. Why?

We can get a hint at the answer if we widen the view just a little bit and consider coaches and managers of human athletes. How many for example duplicated the efforts or the training of Lombardi, or Don Shula or Tony LaRussa. Even Shula's son was unable to produce what Shula produced, just as Michael Whittingham, Charlie's son was unable to duplicate his father.

Duplicating someone else's successful training methods will get you to a certain point. I'll leave it to a later and larger series of posts as to the sorts of qualities that allow the conditioning coach or trainer to translate the fitness of their athletes to actual winning of the event.

Today's Training:
5/11/07 Fri Day 1 Burch: Off
5/12/07 Sat. Day 2 Burch: slow riderless gallop in paddock for about 7-8 min and ten min. walk under tack.
5/13/07 Sun.: Day 3 Burch: Fast riderless work around the paddock with an older buddy. This was a bit of a blurr because every time they stopped the two would commence fighting and playing, so, there were never any real rests. But, we got in probably 7 or 8 minutes of this stuff with several little short 3/4 speed bursts, which is enough at this point. Walked ten min under tack.

More Charlie Whittingham

"Will you be running that horse next week?"
"None of your god damn business"

"Charlie will drive agents crazy sometimes..most trainers, they work a horse a half, a couple of 5/8ths, then 3/4, blow them out and enter. Charlie gets up to three-quarters, then he works a mile. then another mile, then maybe another mile...then, one day, he'll walk up...and say, 'I put that filly in'".

"As the winter of 1973 progressed, Cougar's workouts became special events. He was put under the clock every five days, rain or shine, with exercise rider Emilio Iglesias at the controls. in late January, Whittingham began to send Cougar on a series of longer, more demanding moves, beginning with a mile and eventually stretching out to the full (Santa Anita) Handicap distance of a mile and a quarter....Charlie wanted him to really finish strong that last quarter of a mile...No matter what the final time looked like, every one of those works had a great last quarter."

Ferdinand:
"Whittingham was not even fazed when the colt came up short a few times at Santa Anita that winter (two year old)."

April 24 nine days before the Derby Ferdinand works 1:38 2/5 in company of stakes filly Hidden Light.
April 29 four days out Ferdinand and Hidden Light work :58 3/5.

"On the morning of the Derby Ferdinand was out for an easy jog".


So, there you have it. The training of Charlie Whittingham as described in Hovdey's book, "Whittingham: A Thoroughbred Racing Legend".

Has Carl Nafzger been reading this book?

Today's training:
5/11/07, Friday: Day 1 Burch: Took this day off. Got a call at 5:00 p.m. in the office, horses out on highway. By the time I got there after a 90 mph drive visualizing all four on the rampage, there was just one, our Acesmash, 16'2" big athletic fence crashing horse too smart for his own good being held by a passerby. By the time I treated him for his injuries (minor) and walked the fence looking for holes, it was nearly dark. So, Rested today.
5/12/07 Sat. Day Two Burch: riderless gallop with other horses around the paddock. He lost a shoe in the mud in the process, and when he started limping we quit. Got most of it in. 10 min under tack--other horses in barn--walked around outside of the paddock without any problems. Given the inconsistent tack work, this fellow is doing very well!

Charlie Whittingham

I'll try this one again as I seem yet to master the art of spacing photos on the blog.

Since I'm "borrowing" photos out of Jay Hovdey's book "Whittingham", I've been reading up on the copyright laws. Seems it can be criminal to steal for profit in certain circumstances and only a civil penalty in others. I have yet to see any penalty on borrowing photos just for entertainment, but, I'm still reading up. For the time being then, I'm hoping Jay Hovdey will appreciate that I'm promoting his great book.

Hovdey calls Whittingham a Thoroughbred racing legend, and, indeed he was. I might add that C. Whittingham seemed also a live wire with a large amount of intelligence and also unusual intuitiveness as to what it takes to win on the racetrack. And, of course, the horses he trained to greatness seem almost endless: Cougar, Pretense, Ack Ack, Ferdinand, Sunday Silence and on and on.

But, my interest in Whittingham is in the training. I've been disappointed in reading Baffert and Woody Stephens book since they omit largely the training. What about Hovdey's book?

It was a pleasant surprise! While Hovdey, unlike e.g. Ross Staaden in "Winning Trainers", fails to include specific times, distances, frequency or the like, Hovdey describes Whittingham's training in enough detail that we can figure out pretty much how those horses were developed. Let's say "it's a revelation"!

Best to communicate this with some excerpts from the book:
"Whittingham's true organizational genius lies in his ability to provide each horse with a specially tailored conditioning program within the strict framework of the daily routine. Although there are certain fairly standard features in each program--the two mile gallops, the depressurizing strolls through the paddock--no two horses will ever be on identical schedules."

"It boggles my mind why other trainers don't follow Charlie's lead, said Chris McCarron." (Mine too, Chris.)

"A deep track can be tough on soft tissue--ligaments and tendons, Charlie said. Real hard tracks your going to get fractures, sure. The worst is a track that changes from day to day". (nice to hear Charlie stating standard stuff.)

"If a horse has not raced in a while--say a month to six weeks or more--there will be a stern work of one mile seven or eight days prior to the race, then a quick little spin to open the pipes right on top of the race. However, if the horse has been in steady training and racing. . .he will use a 5f work 4 or 5 days out. A clocking of 1:00 is usually what Charlie requires".

That's enough for one post. More tomorrow. And, yes, Whittingham in the book does send horses to be pinfired.

Today's training:
5/8/07 Tues. Day 1 Burch: 7 min trot-lope in the pasture under 30 lbs astride.
5/9/07 Wed. Day 2 Burch: Rest. 7 min tack work.
5/10/07 Thurs. Day 3 Burch: This was "fast twitch" day. Decided to do it riderless in the paddock with the older horses. Started off with the Art limping slightly at the trot--low grade limp, I call it, you can barely tell. What's going on??? Looks like a developing abscess limp. Hardly a surprise with all this mud, and no other explanation. I've seen enough of these to identify them. So, I decided to go on and get the fast work before treating the abcess, fully expecting the work would make him more lame. I got most of it in before he started limping medium grade and I called it. Got in several moderately fast short spurts. Very appropriate for "state of training". Art was not limping at all this morning, so, I'm staying tuned on what is going on with the limp.

Miscellaneous Stuff

I keep getting distracted by really important stuff, and so, before getting on with my posts on Warming Up, I'll try to tie up a few loose ends that keep coming to mind.

--Today's KC Star headline "A Break In The Rain Is A Blessing To Some". Amen! We missed the last three days of rain, and the forecast looks good! (and, good grief, just as I'm writing this I look out and it's raining.)

--Are we "backyard trainers" in the Janet Castillo mold? I enjoyed Ms. Castillo's book, and, sure, we identify with her situation, but, there's little other resemblance in what we do. Hopefully as the blog goes, we'll soon be showing gallops at the race track. The plans are to train off the farm this year, purchase Derby prospect 2009 at Kee Sept., and then train primarily at the track next year. As usual when you have little hard cash, circumstances will buffet us about, but, if we could get a horse or two to cooperate, things might get interesting.

--2007 Derby postscript: I followed the training day to day as the info dribbled in . My two picks along the way Stormello and SS performed as expected. When you've been at it as long as me you recognize visually a horse in light training, and so Stormello. What was Currin thinking. I know, but will reserve that discussion for another time and training failures generally.

The rest of the field? It was a tiring track favoring the rail on a heavily humid day with Hard Spun carrying the entire field (except SS) a little faster than their comfort zone in these conditions. All the pacesetters faded, and all the horses at the rear seemed to be flying at the end but were only passing tired, stopped horses. Hey, it was a competitive race if you had subtracted the only two who's training made any sense--SS and Hard Spun.

As to Pletcher, first, his horses breezed 7 days before the Derby and did little from there to Saturday, which is a prescription for disaster when you're going against horses trained like Hard Spun and SS. Unknown the effect of moving from the polytrack, and, I'm suspecting something wrong in the race with Scat Daddy who is too good a horse with a great jock for that performance.

--Preakness: Beware. Pletcher will be back. King of The Roxy will be a real threat. I'll be interesting to see what Larry Jones does with Hard Spun. Another fast work the Monday or Tuesday preceding is definitely required and lot's of galloping. We'll see what he does. (and, just as I type that L. Jones says he will "not" be breezing Hard Spun before the Preakness. Toss Hard Spun in the Preakness.)

--Nafzger cost Unbridled the Triple Crown--something I always knew, but, he finally admitted it this week. Did you catch Nafzger's comment that he trained Unbridled very light before the Belmont and he recognized afterward if he had just kept up the pre-derby training Unbridled would have won the Triple Crown? Carl, your post-Derby trot Sunday with Street Sense shows you still ignore basic exercise physiology, but, we're glad you're coming around with this training. Hopefully some of these guys and gals are smart enough to be listening and watching!

--Teufelsberg: I love Jamie Sanders, but will somebody please send her an email on how to train a horse.

--Charlie Wittingham--I just finished Jay Hovdey's book. I'll report on it tomorrow.

Today's Training:
5/7/07 Day 3: short riderless pasture sprints.
5/8/07 Day 1: Art trotted and loped under the 30 lbs Astride for 7-8 minutes on very soft giving pasture. He was unhappy and trying to buck it off, which explains why we postponed tack work for another day.

Today's Training

5/7/07: Day 3 (Burch): slight change of plans. As I considered it after yesterday's post, decided I'd like to get some speed instead of weight carrying. So, ditched the Astride and lunge line plans with Art, and put him in the pasture by himself for some riderless work in the same area where he used to run carrying the Astride back and forth. Art remembered the game, and basically conducted a self directed workout. I let him go as he chose, and the result was running back and forth over a 2f course up and down a hill with the depression right in the middle. He'd run down and then up, rest a bit, and turn right around and repeat. This went on 8 or nine times with me standing near the middle some distance away cracking the whip where appropriate. All this resulted in a bucking and sprinting display over several of the heats with the young now right at 15'3" fellow for the first time showing a stride. Instead of bounding and pogoing along as formerly, yesterday he was showing a nice racing stride, which I'm surmising may be the difference between watching a youngster sprinting with open knees as opposed to closed. There were several full speed 1/4 to 1/2f full speed sprints, probably 4 altogether which he did completely on his own without any driving by myself. This was all quite enough for the state of the training, and a real nice totally unexpected workout.

We trotted the older horses 1.5 miles through the mess, squishing along. There was just too much water on the grass to gallop safely, but, we've persevered through the wet weather for 3 days out of 4 now, and, as usual, it was less horrible than anticipated. We made it through, and the horses will be much better for it in the coming workouts than if we had just layed off, even as I wonder as always whether the trouble was worthwhile in terms of really getting us closer to the racetrack. Looks like we're missing the next three days of predicted rain. The stars were out last night, and sun today. And so, the first Eureka trip is again on the horizon, hopefully for next Monday.

Next post I'll get back to warming up and how training produces injuries.

"It Never Stopped Raining..."

The weather is the story here in KCMo. The quote is from Woody Stephens when he was training Devil's Bag for the Derby, Aqueduct, 1984. Eight out of the last eleven here have been rain days, and hardly a small amount. Since April 24 Accuweather reports six inches of rain dropped on Kansas City. The Missouri River which flows though the middle of town right by the downtown airport is nearing flood stage.

I wonder how they calculate rainfall because my feed buckets contained six inches of water just from Sunday. If two inches on the Accuweather gage equal six inches in the buckets, I'd say we got two feet since April 24. It all stops Wednesday, for two weeks at least.

Through my days of serious training I always worked the horses right through the weather when we could. Many times of course we're at the track and they close it for rain. For the last five years though, as the horses aged my former determination has flagged quite a bit, the training less serious, and I prefer to save the pastures than gallop in the rain. Unfortunately this wet pattern has lasted most of the last three years, and training wise, it's been a bummer.

But, for this year with the arrival of young Art the motivation is returning, and though I've let things ride through this weather primarily due to Art's hoof problems, in fact we've reached "dam the torpedoes" time with the older horses to race them this year and we're getting darn close if we're going to race Art this year at all.

So, Friday and Saturday the horses were trotted a couple of miles. We rested yesterday in driving rain. Tonight, rain or shine we'll commence multiple hill gallops through deep grass with the oldsters and I'll start to train Art to the double lunge line with the Astride till the running paddocks dry.

Traits Of A Winner?

Carl Nafzger and Francis Genter after Unbridled won the 1990 Derby. The 93 year old Ms. Genter had been in racing most of her life, but this was the first time she won the Derby. Ms. Genter died a few months later. Who ever snapped this photo should be in the photo hall of fame.

About six months ago I tossed Carl Nafzger's book "Traits of a Winner". I'm other than a collector, but, I'd had this book on my shelf since I read it around 2000. Figured I'd internalized sufficiently the training of Unbridled. It's a good book, but mediocre. I praised Nafzger elsewhere for putting it all together. He is after all a horse trainer instead of an author.

"Traits of a Winner" describes fairly closely the training of Unbridled. The obliviousness of conventional trainers such as the Nafzger of the time is illustrated by such comments in the book--and I'm quoting from memory--as "I gave Unbridled a series of strong two mile gallops". Such statements really say very little, though we get the idea Nafzger felt he was training Unbridled harder than he did his other horses. And, indeed he was, for Nafzger in the book makes a big bfd as to how you are unable to train lesser horses as hard as he trained Unbridled. Suffice to say though that the book fails at specifics, such as how frequent were the two mile gallops, the breezes, the length, the speed, etc.--the usual lack of detail and info, it's just unimportant to these sorts.

However, my feeling is that the Nafzger of 2007 has progressed way beyond the training of Unbridled. In the training of Street Sense we see more the echos of Charlie Wittingham than Nafzger in 1990 struggling to get beyond his own soft conventional training background with Unbridled.

While finding out what these trainers do with their horses is as usual like pulling teeth, enough came out about the training of Street Sense that you can put it mostly together. Everybody had privy to the published works, but, what was Nafzger doing with the horse between breezes and races? Absent daily reports (and one does wonder--where is our racing press on what these athletes are doing in their day to day training), you can put it completely together just with what Nafzger did with Street Sense this last week.

Of course there was the Tuesday breeze in about 1:01 with the clocker's comments that Street Sense crossed the finish line hugging the rail and continued right on to where he was timed for a 1:42 mile on the backstretch. Did Nafzger let up on the horse after this breeze? On another day--and this must have referred to before May 1--there was Street Sense out galloping around, and then he went around again--i.e. a two mile gallop.

This was followed by Steve Haskin's Blood Horse column on Friday, May 4 that Street Sense was out this morning galloping two miles through the mud and that he "steamrolled over it". Now, this must have been in error. Nafzger did not steamroll his horse two miles in the mud one day before the Derby, so this gallop must have happened Thursday morning, perfect timing with 56 hours to the Derby--plenty of recovery for this from the Tuesday breeze and a superb additional conditioning work prior to the Derby.

Then the Derby itself. What a wonder that the entire talented field except one all but dies at the quarter pole with the sole horse trained for the distance running by them like they were tied to a post. Hard Spun did what you'd expect off that nice :57 and change breeze on Monday, if only his trainer like Nafzger had the prescience to understand the Derby distance. You feel a bit sorry for Hard Spun and Stormello and all the rest, and wonder what they might have done had they been in Nafzger's barn.

But, the true test of Nafzger is yet to come. Hopefully somebody will deign to publish what Street Sense does on the track in the next month. Will Nafzger put him in a closet as was done with Brother Derek next year. Will Nafzger be afraid to breeze the horse, as happened with Barbaro? We got a clue today when Street Sense took to the track. It should be interesting!

Derby Day

15 No Biz Like Show Biz
14 Street Sense
14 Tiago
13 Curlin
13 Zanjero
13 Bwana Bull
12 Stormello
11 Hard Spun
11 Circular Quay
11 Any Given Saturday
11 Sam P.
10 Cow Town Cat
10 Scat Daddy
10 Great Hunter
10 Liquidity
10 Teuflesberg
9 Sedgefield
7 Storm in May
6 I'm A Wild and Crazy Guy

Will the fittest horse win the Derby? Maybe. The above indicates the NUMBER of works AND races each entrant had since January 26, 2007 as a measure of fitness of each horse. There are of course many things which affect fitness besides just the "number" of the works and races, such as quality of breezes and races and also the speed (Asmussen doing 4F on Monday, but Nagzger on Tuesday getting a mile in 1:42 on the gallop out.), and also what is done on the off days (SS galloping 2 miles Thursday through the mud while the rest stayed in their stalls or trotted a mile).

But, what is measurable over time and what we are able to analyze simplistically to determine fitness is the total number of times the horse ran fast since 1/26/07. Notice: No Biz worked and raced 15 times. I'm A Wild And Crazy Guy worked and raced 6 times. May we ask a simple question: what is the trainer of Wild and Crazy Guy thinking? Does I'm A Wild And Crazy Guy or Storm In May have any chance against No Biz or Street Sense based only on the number of works and races. The answer is "of course not", which brings to mind the same question for all the trainers who horses worked or raced 10 or less times in 3.5 months.

I throw Todd Pletcher out of this analysis. I've written several times that I'm trying to figure out what Pletcher is doing with his horses. Let's just say its more than the published works or races because it's impossible for Pletcher to consistently have the fittest horse in every race based on what we see published. There's something going on there, and I'd like to know what it is.

But, for the rest of them, I'll make the simple prediction that the horses half way down on the above scale (excepting Pletcher) will finish up the track, and the one's near the top should at least be competitive. I'm looking for a runaway by Street Sense down the stretch due to the overall training job, but, believe the above chart will identify those who just stop and those who have a chance because their level of fitness allows them to run all the way to the wire. I believe the winner will come from the group with 13 or more works and races since January 26, or from Pletcher's group who are flying under the radar.

See And Not Believe Your Eyes

"Lay a table for us hurry, in our little garden bright.
He will start aback and scurry, see and not believe his eyes."

Another one from Faust to tie in here. I'm hardly too proud to change my mind right at the last moment, and since there's so much information filtering in about my Derby pick Stormello, I've chosen to avoid the handicapping error of seeing and disbelieving my eyes through these trifocals.

Even before I read the Churchill Clocker's comments on Stormello's gallops I had seen the Thoroughbred Times video of his gallop and also his photos in "The Final Turn" Photo Gallery where I pilfered the above snapshot of Street Sense and Calvin Borel.

On closer inspection with Stormello several problems:
1. The horse lacks the physical scope of several of the other contenders.
2. Visually Stormello gives the look of having undergone a light prep instead of rigorous training. The question of what Currin has been doing with the horse is answered merely by his appearance, and its "not much".
3. The Final Turn Gallery photos show an out of shape female exercise rider on Stormello, the ,same one on the TTB Times video, conducting the questionable gallop. I've had girls riding for me with far more ability. Where is Desormeaux three days before the Derby if they're really serious.
4. Then there's the clocker comments about the questionable galloping and inability to get into rhythm.

Believe my eyes here instead of what I was hoping for. A last minute toss of Stormello.

Are the eyes even more important though regarding Street Sense. Little stuff just jumps out at you. If I could blow up the above photo you'd see a very in shape Calvin Borel. He's got muscles in his arms; not riding muscles, but workout, weight training type muscles. Nafzger has got both horse and rider "in shape."

Considering everything I'm trying to figure out how Street Sense short of bad luck can lose this race. Let's put it this way, if the best training job by leaps and bounds means anything SS will run away with this race. Every little detail covered down to the May 1, four day out breeze. It was Ivers who noted the ideal time to breeze a horse--four days out from the race. Following this example I've had lots of nice performances and never a bad one. The horse will recover perfectly even after galloping out to what according to the clocker was basically a mile breeze in 1:42. Unlike Asmussen satisfied to give his horses short "maintenance works" Monday, Nafzger is still moving his horse forward with this Tuesday breeze, which will give more advantage being closer to the race given track conditions Thursday and Friday.

And, there's talent, conformation, appearance, presence, rider, trainer, owner. With Street Sense is it time to believe our eyes?

The 2007 Kentucky Derby

Wow what a field! With regards to those who somehow see mediocrity here, I'm unable to recall a more competitive group of prospects. How can you bet this race where you have fifteen horses that conceivably could win? Neverthless, I'll try to sort through this bunch after watching the training very carefully and hoping we'd learn something for next year. Let's note also that I've never seen a better more consistent training job from more trainers. Times are a changing, and I believe the lack of injuries this year indicates that. Here we go:

1. Teuflesberg: my personal favorite. Hey, this is us! An affordable, carefully selected yearling with some breeding. Modest connections and an owner/trainer who also rides the horse. Ms. Jamie Thomas has gotten old and fat and she rides now like a sack of potatoes similar to our own exercise boy, Mr. Nob, but, she's definitely the blond that was breezing Zito's horses at the KY Horse Center when we were there in '98. Teuflesberg (Der Teufel--German for Devil) looked great breezing last Saturday, BUT, then it's the woman training thing again. Where is Ms. Sanders Monday when she should be out galloping her horse? She's in NY City. How can this be? It's Zito training, and how many horses does he have here. Throw out Teuflesberg.

2. Hard Spun: Ditto here. A trainer who rides his horse. Big advantage to that. But this one weighs 180 lbs and wears heavy waist to ankle chaps at the gallop. What's with the chaps Larry? Might you weigh enough without the 5 lbs. of chaps? I'm unable to think a man so vapid in detail will have his horse ready for the Derby. We'll post the grossly overweight Nob's near weightless riding wardrobe in contrast at a later date. Throw him out.

3. Throw out any horse trained by Doug O'Neil. Soft trainer over his head with this bunch.

4. Dominican. Same deal. Questionable trainer.

5. No Biz: From here down I give every horse at least an adequate for the training job. Two things though about No Biz: a) Barclay Tagg is a conventional and beats only conventionals. He will lose to this group, and 2) Even were the horse sufficiently fit, I've been unimpressed by his talent. Throw him out

6. Tiago: I still feel sorry for poor Giacomo in the Breeder's Cup. Nice training till 6 days before the Classic, and then not one single gallop between the last breeze and the race. Try sitting in a closet for a week and go out and run an 880 to get a feel for what Shireff's horses have to overcome. Nice training by Shireff as one of two trainers who understand the Derby distance is more than 5f. But, fear the Giacomo gallop pattern from last breeze to race. Throw him out.

7. Curlin and Zanjero: Asmussen I've identified as one of the new "harder" trainers. He conditions his horses. And yet there's something about this guy that rubs me the wrong way which just intuitively will doom these horses. Throw throw them out.

8. Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat--insufficient talent. These types require rigorous preps. What was Pletcher thinking? Throw them out.

9. Any Given Saturday or any horse trained by Pletcher: a threat.

10. Scat Daddy: If this horse were in my Derby I'd be worried. Scat flashed exceptional talent and conditioning in Florida. People tell me that Pletcher trains soft. Don't believe it. Your eyes will tell you otherwise, at least through the Derby preps. There are a few warning signs since the Florida Derby including the bar shoes. And yet, watching the Pletcher horses this year, everyone of them running gate to wire, this exceptional horse should be right there.

12. Street Sense: Picture Nafzger watching the stretch run on Saturday as reality flashes before his eyes. What a training job! Weekly breezing or racing since January. Two minute gallops, two mile gallops, everything seeingly done to near perfection but Nafzger's worst nightmare has come true. Street Sense fades near the wire due to lack of racing fitness, done in by a questionable campaign and two preps were the only running was the last 3f. All comes to naught as a certain liver chestnut storms to the lead at the 1/4 and holds them off at the wire.

13. Stormello: Nice piece on Stormello's groom today. Rubin somebody who confided how fat Stormello was at the Breeder's Cup compared to now. He implied that Currin was too soft prior to the Cup and the Fl. Derby. Currin let up on the training. I doubt he did that again, and suspect he'll have his competitive horse fast and sharp. While I might have preferred Currin condition the speed to just go on instead of trying to change the style before the Derby, I look for the best jock, Desormeaux, to just take off at the quarter pole and outfoot and outcompete Scat Daddy and Street Sense to the win. And, would I look good if it turns out just that way.