Derby Training

The horse at left ran such a nice race in the KY Derby you wonder had Louis Roussell only breezed the horse 4 days out instead of 8 days whether Recapturetheglory might have sustained his run and beat Big Brown to the wire. With slightly revised training might we be talking about Roussell's horse for the TC instead of the questionable connnections we have now?

I'll render my opinion that Louis Roussell, for whatever reason, completely clutched in his training of Recapturetheglory, and had Roussell adjusted things correctly the horse would have been competitive all the way around.

What Roussell did: Roussell had the horse on a program of infrequent breezing but numerous and vigorous off day slow gallops many at distances of 2 miles. The photo above is one of the slow gallop days which shows the horse obviously into his two miles at a two minute clip.

Rousell wanted to breeze 7 days out from the Derby on Saturday, but feared the Saturday rains, and so decided on Friday instead. The horse thereafter galloped 1-2 miles per day into the Derby.

What Roussell should have done: the question is why would Roussell have chosen the last breeze 8 days out (due to weather) instead of 6,5 or 4 days out as every known principle of exercise physiology dictates as preferable? Recapture faded because that last breeze was too far out, and the horse was insufficiently tight on race day to maintain his front running style.

The picture below shows two gentleman who probably never have been involved in athletics as participants at more than a junior high school level. You can sort of pick this up from the photo, but it's easier to believe this when you see the men on video.
In this sense lack of being tuned into basic exercise physiology with their horse is more understandable. After all, there are numerous coaches and athletes with similar deaf ears to the science. And though things are changing rapidly with humans, in horse racing, I fear, we still have people more attuned to throwing horse feed than understanding athletics training for the Derby.

Of course, breezing days out from the race is but one aspect of performance and injury prevention. When I look back at the Derby training there are numerous other what if's. Had only this or that horse done this or that, Colonel John comes to mind. Was this really such a weak field of horses or were we merely missing Carl Nafzger and a couple of others? More next post.

Training:
Thurs: 5/28 Both horses did slow riderless work for about 10 minutes basically 3f at a time with short rests. Art then trotted a mile under tack and again responded appropriately when asked to gallop. Nob said the soft ground made for very poor training conditions, but the horse did gallop without incident almost 75 yards. Rod, the two year old also did some tack work, though Nob declined to get on in the first under saddle work in a week.

How TheyTrained For The Derby

This was the first Derby where we had comprehensive written and video reports of the gallops right up to race day. And so, for Derby 2008 I faithfully charted it all for every horse.

By Derby morning I was anxiously waiting to compare results to my pre-race gallop charts that were scattered all over my desk. I decided, regrettably in retrospect, to toss these charts in the wastecan thinking I could remember it all. I've a pretty good memory and was planning the posts for the very next day.

Then came Eigh Belles, and by the time the blog got off that subject, I'm afraid the place of the RR brain where the gallops had been deposited is now gone. All I have lefts is a general picture of what each horse did instead of the exact specifics.

Luckily in terms of remembering it all, in this Derby all of the horses trained in very similar fashion with a variation here and there. Thus, recalling it generally even now is easy, and I'll post these results in the coming days.

If we knew the training, could we duplicate the performance. And, I guess, for most of these would we want to?

Training:
Tues. 5/27 Art trotted 1.1 mile under tack with a few strides of gallop. Both horses did 5 minutes of riderless play in the mud.
Wed. 5/28 Art trotted 1.25 miles under tack and did his maiden voyage of galloping when being asked--the prior galloping had been with the horse breaking into a gallop on his own. This date Nob asked him and he went off flawlessly. Nob is happy with the horse and says we should be seriously race training within two weeks. Both colts then did a snappy riderless 3f x 2 x2 x 2.

More TC Musings:

I watched and recorded the Derby training in detail. Hoping to learn something, and I'm trying to put it together and form some conclusions. Meanwhile a few more thoughts on the TC. At left a fellow who makes smiling look painful, and hence one of my favorite trainers, Barclay Tagg. Looks pretty good for a seventy year old dude!

And, just this morning Tagg's quoted in the Blood Horse "no wonder I'm always in a bad mood". Tagg and I would get along perfectly.

Tale of Ekati managed a 1:18 and change Monday. Let's give Tagg some credit for trying. Was it bad jock work Monday or the horse? I've seen both. Preston Burch's horse would be ready to go again tomorrow. With Tagg and the like they'd pee in their pants before breezing two days later. But, we'll see how Barclay handles this one. Tale of Ekati is (was) my horse to take on Big Brown.

Then there's this fellow who smiles maybe just a little too easily for my taste. Unknown how much I'd be smiling had I ruined as many horses as Zito. I guess he's happy about that 4f sub :48 breeze for Anak Nakal Monday. Does the distance of the race ever matter with respect to Zito's 4f breezes? It seems otherwise. Too bad for a nice horse.


I hardly mean to pick on Zito, but, it's so easy. Take a look at his horse Stevil pictured below. Focus in on the hoofs. You'll see a set of toes way too long. While I'd have thought that long toe-low heel shoeing has gone the way of the dinosaurs, looks as if I'm wrong again.

And, on the Big Brown front Dutrow continues to inspire my lukewarm confidence, which is more than I can say for most of them. My own feel would have been to do exactly what he's done--off since Friday, and then send the horse out to trot asap even before you get final farrier approval. Needed to do that....and he did. Will be interesting to follow BB from hereon if the QC holds.

And for Bill's comment a couple of posts ago. Great minds think alike! Bill keep us up to date on your work!

Training: 4 straight days of rain, but way far short of the continual monsoons of a year ago. We're back to normal weather wise in KC since February. So, it's other than complaining. Art did 1 mile of trot sloshing through the pasture course with a few steps of gallop trying to buck Nob off the whole way. Nob's report, nice energy, should be galloping by the weekend, weather permitting. Too muddy for Rod, but we were backing off due to shin heat. Maybe a little chance to grow taller during the rest period which has now gone for three days with Rod.

Some TC Asides

With the BB quarter crack announcements, Dutrow's slightly defensive manner (see the Dutrow live on Yahoo Sports), and that BB will have two days of trot in two weeks prior to embarking on a week where he will breeze/race three times, I'm packing it in as far as analysing this, at least on the basis of posting the analysis in this blog.

So, for this post a few miscellaneous observations:

1. What sort of trainer is Dutrow: I've posted that it looks as if Dutrow's the best available on the East Coast. There's probably an unknown or two that can train, but one of the things we learn by the comprehensive reporting of Derby training is that all of these East coast trainers are strictly conventional soft core type trainers except Dutrow. So, whatever's left of Dutrow's brain, give him credit as far as that goes. Dutrow sends his horses to the track every day and with BB(up to the Derby) correctly spaced and timed works. That's more then you can say of the rest of them. How Dutrow has handled BB since the Derby would be a different question.

2. Does Dutrow care about missed track work? Dutrow's statement that's he's unconcerned about BB's missed track work due to the latest problem merely reveals the priority or lack of priority that conventional trainers in general give to track work. What we have currently in most of American race horse training is "minimal" track work both in performance and injury prevention. These trainers have learned what they "can get away with" in terms of doing as little actual training as possible, and it seems that none of them choose to rouse themselves to do more. This is an interesting state of affairs for us little guys. As they're currently observing on the baseball blogs: "it sure was easier when the big money teams where dumb." In horse racing they're still dumb, and thus there's hope yet for the small fry.

3. Here's a sequence purely for the curious. On May 3, 2007(Derby post) I posted:

"The Final Turn Gallary photos show an out of shape female exercise rider on Stormello, the same one on TTB Times video, conducting a questionable gallop. I've had girls riding for me with more ability". Elsewhere I noted the DRF clocker's comments about Stormello's "disjointed" gallop."

One year later quite by accident I run across photos of that same gallop, and, who would be in the saddle?
Here's a closer look:

CLOSER:












Notice the contrast in form and strength a year later:


We combine the above to that hillarious 2008 video that captured the moment with Dutrow standing just outside Michelle Nevin's office, Nevin seated at the desk, the two arguing about something and Dutrow turning in disgust to the cameraman and muttering "Broads" under his breath.

I do feel for Dutrow. Here he's in the TC with his exercise rider packing 15 more lbs than before the Derby and fighting with him to boot. I've been there, albeit on a lesser scale.

Training:
Friday 5/23 riderless 2 x 1 mile and minimal tack work due to mud.
Sat. 5/24: continues to rain. Too wet, though RR fails to rouse himself to work in the bad weather. Bill O'Gorman wrote best to go out and work on those bad days because it might be worse the next day.
Sun 5/25: indeed it's worse. Raining buckets. Off.

Dutrow's "Methods"

Big Brown's non-training since the Derby continues with the announcement today that the horse has a new quarter crack on the left front discovered Friday 5/22 supposedly resulting from an abscess. Numerous questions of course on which one might write a book, to include the particular treatment for the quarter cracks, the use of glue on shoes held on the quarter area of the hoofs by a copper strip and epoxy, as well as general theories on treating quarter cracks, and last but hardly least, Dutrow's (ignorant imo) statement that he's unworried about missed training that could carry into Thursday 5/29 exactly 9 days pre-Belmont (June 7).

This news changes the whole tenor of this post as I was preparing a somewhat humorous rendition of the dynamic between Dutrow and his exercise rider Michelle Nevin, and what they were (were supposed to be) doing with this horse.

After Eight Belles the entire country has awakened that vis a vis horse racing something is rotten in Denmark, and my own post Derby mood hardly improves by watching the powers that be deal with every peripheral issue except what really counts which is the preparation of the horse through training and pre-race diagnostics.

Now, due to luck or questionable practice, we have a lightly raced and trained colt going into a 1.5 mile race with one planned breeze and another "blowout" on race morning presumably under a 150+ lbs. When Dutrow says that he's unconcerned about missed training could he possibly be thinking "cannon bones" or Eight Belles, or that we know through research that there is significant bone loss/resorption that results from three weeks of bed rest. With bone like musculature its "use it or lose it". I'd have been far more comfortable to hear Dutrow say this morning, "I'm very concerned."

My own point of view was that after Eight Belles they should have cancelled this year's Triple Crown. They'll go on with it of course, and I still will hope to be proven wrong and that Big Brown, like War Pass, Rags To Riches and countless others will survive the race after training or lack of training on the bare edge of structural soundness.

Unknown after today's news whether I'm in the mood for light analysis of all this, or any analysis at all. Pondering.

Training:
Fri: 5/23 both colts riderless 2 x 1 mile in mud though the surface was ok. Art was then walked under tack in the paddock as we're trying to avoid a cuppy surface on our pasture track. Rod took his maiden voyage under tack walking about 50 feet whereupon Nob promptly jumped off and declared that was enough walking for tack work day #1. I'd prefer Jerry Bailey, but for us Nob will have to do. The 2 yr. old is showing some slight cannon bone/shin heat that without a doubt results from a too fast workout a couple of cycles back where I'd planned 90% speed and allowed 'em to go all out. Violation of my own rule--never exceed the plan particularly for speed. This is minor but we'll back off slightly with Rod in the next days.
Sat. 5/24: Off due to weather. First one we've missed in a while.

Dutrow

Our stumbling, bumbling sport has as trainer of its next TC winner the trainer pictured at left, other than a choir boy, but, Dutrow:

1. Won NY training title 3 out of last 8 years and finished 2d or 3d the other years.
2. 2008 record 25% winners from starters (68 for 284) and 60% in the money.
3. 2007 record 25% winners from starters (166 of 659) and 7th in national trainer rankings.
4. Trainer of: Sis City, Silver Train, Offlee Wild, Love of Money, St. Liam, Silver Wagon, Kip Deville, Diamond Stripes, Benny The Bull and Big Brown.

What does one have to do to get some respect?

People speak highly of Dutrow. You see it on occasion on the Internet chat boards: "good barn", "heart of gold", Bobby Frankel likes him, "I'll do it for him because he'd do it for me" are some of the things I've seen posted.

So, can we ignore the usual overreaction by certain of our journalists and fans who prefer to dwell on Dutrow's suspensions as further evidence that the backstretches are overrun with drug dealers and mobsters? I believe so, though, per usual just guessing.

Dutrow's horses were probably tested about 300 times in 2007 and you'd guess the same rough number in 2005 when he received two suspensions. Since the Dutrow reformation from substance abuse in the late 90s the suspensions have involved:
Lasix
clenbuterol--broncho dialator used to treat bleeding.
phenylbutozone
oxyphenybutozone ( bute derivative)
mepivcaine--nerve block

The scarce info available on these suspensions indicates(to me) more misadminstration and carelessness than intent to violate the rules. In fact, what might possibly be Dutrow's motives from intentional misuse of the above drugs each of which involves universal treatments ubiquitous in our sport? Each of us training race horses understands the fine lines involved in adherence to the many established rules and regs. Just look at the NCAA rules to understand the difficulties, and then think of a junior high grad such as Dutrow attempting compliance.

Maybe Dutrow is the confirmed cheat. Personally I'd doubt it. I see Dutrow more as a fat Tom Smith (Seabiscuit), a fellow that by birth loves horses, and whatever you say about his training, knows a thing or two about getting performance.

This is backed up by certain things that Dutrow says and the way he says them. When you've been around sports as long as I have you pick up on this stuff, and for the most part I'm fairly impressed. (emphasize "fairly"). After the Derby he said he'd look at his horse one day at a time. Dislikes galloping in the mud, sends his horse to the track most days, etc. And, of course, we may look at his horse and see a rather well cared for animal. You may look at photos of Big Brown and compare them to the stall bunnies produced by the likes of Reade Baker, Paul Lobo, or Zito and see the difference for yourself in care and training.

Dutrow's methods are likewise "of interest", and I'll take a look at this next post.

Training:
Wed: 5/21 Another superb night weather wise on the Preston Burch training "fast day". Of all the methods I've used, this so far seems vastly superior. Art did a mile under tack with some gallop. Nob says we're close to commencement of galloping. Nob also got on Rod for the second consecutive night, though since Nob was solo and the youngster had his back up a bit they have yet to move. lol. Presumably we'll get a step or two under tack tomorrow. Then for both colts riderless after warm up 4 x 1f at about 90% speed. Both are showing good strength with this, and it provides a nice way to maintain condition as we transition to full tack work.

Big Brown's Pedigree

A few more tidbits as "Dutrow-Nevin" training post is under construction. Here is another horse sired by Boundary:
A little similar in the legs to BB, eh, but, in any event, a nice one! Here's more on Boundary from the NY Times, May 29, 1994:

"Belmont Park ran up the curtain on a glittering holiday weekend with a ...winning streak: Boundary, the undefeated but lightly raced son of Danzig made it five straight when he outran the favorites and won the Roseben Handicap by nearly three lengths.

It was the first stakes performance for Boundary, and he took the step upward with grace...the winner ran the six furlongs in 1:09 3/5. The 4 year old colt is owned by Mrs. William Haggin Perry and the Claiborne Farm and trained by Bill Mott., and he has raced flawlessly since his debut 13 months ago. His timetable was interrupted by knee surgery last May, and he stayed on the sidelines for seven months."

And please, before you pedigree types immediately declare the line "unsound", consider:
1. Lots of Danzigs have good knees.
2. Maybe just maybe something caused this other than genetics.

Nevertheless, Boundary was a good horse, quite obviously, but, on Boundary, that's all I could find.

Training:
Mon. 5/19 horses were off after their Sunday fast work.

KEENLAND 2007: Two year Olds In Training (Sale)

IEAH purchased Big Brown at 2007 Keeneland April Two Year Old in Training sale, Hip 21, and, before I get back to Dutrow and Michelle Nevin, here's a quick look at the OTHER graduates of that sale.

What sort of horseflesh will $100-500,000 get you these days? Or, just as interesting, what results from these presumably first class pedigrees? Are these other buyers similar to IEAH now able to smile like the chesier cat over their hips? Here they are:

$90,000 Mr. Greely-Keepondealing Dogwood stable--trained by Leigh Delacour, one start 9/2707, finished 7th.

$90,000 Officer-Native Hanna Dogwood Stable--trainer Frank Alexander 11-0-2-3 earned $18,140.00.

$200,000 Tale Of The Cat-Pretty 'n Smart Dogwood stable--trainer Mark Hennig is 9-1-2-2 (pretty good, considering) earned $50,000.00.

$250,000 Grand Slam-Quimper Dogwood Stable--trained by T. Pletcher is 4-1-0-0 earned $12,405.00.

$440,000 Elusive Quality-Light Of The Moon Alan and Sandra Kirkwood--trained by Timi Yakteen is 5-1-0-1 earned $37,280.00.

$275,000 Include-Mattie Kate Centenial Farms--trained by Rodney Jenkins is 3-1-0-1 earned $19,260.00.

$240,000 Cozzene-Mudslinger Jill Heeresperger--no trainer--unraced BUT has five recent breezes.

$260000 Came Home-Rajmata D.L. O'Byrne trained by Todd Pletcher is 6-3-0-2, earned $157,000.00.

$525,000 Hussonet (Huh?)-Reina Victoriosa Michael Stedham trained by J. Frankel is 3-1-0-1 earned $28,050.00.

$270,000 Point Given-Runaway Chanel Vern Winchell trained by S. Asmussen is 6-1-1-2 and earned $29,320.00.

$210,000 Pure Prize-Sassy 'N Proud John Fort is unraced and without a listed trainer.

Phew!

Training:
Sat. 5/18 the next cycle begins. Both colts riderless 4 x 1f pretty much full tilt. This was after warm up and with some warm down. 5f were planned, but called it after 4 because they were going faster than planned. They carried the speed the full 1f each time. I figured that's enough for the immature two year old, and indeed he was carrying slight cannon heat from the hard ground afterward. Passed on tack work afterward to avoid overdoing. Good work for us.

Big Brown

Big Brown finally get's a photo here, but would you breed to this horse?

They're saying now BB's a freak outrunning his pedigree. In my years in racing a few horses have caught my eye that I'd breed to if I get the chance. Four I like to this day: Lear Fan with his perfect balance for his size, Nureyev for athleticism, Damascus for speed, Round Table for stamina. Left click on BB's pedigree and see they're all there. Damascus twice. A grand dam that set a track record. Could we say this is as solid a pedigree as we'll see in our sport? I believe so!

And if only were Dr. Dewitt Owen alive to comment on this conformation. A perfect horse? I might have imagined shorter cannons in relation to the forearm. But, perhaps I'm incorrect on that. A slightly larger more powerful rear end? Remember that they have to lug "larger" around that race track. Maybe, just maybe, the lighter rear permits the power to be generated forward instead of keeping a heavier rear in the air?

What really strikes me about the photo is the perfect pastern angle combined with perfect pastern length with perfect cannon bone diameter. When we see imperfections in the legs of our own horses, is this what we're imagining. I find it very difficult to fault any of this horse. Congrats to Robert Clay.

The BB connections, IEAH Stable, Paul Pompa, Dutrow and Michele Nevin (are horses the products of their riders? This is a very good one. A little heavy but perfect balance over center of gravity, superb athleticism, superior technique, she hones that bounding stride!) seem exactly what we need more of in the sport. They're less than perfect of course, a bit oblivious.
Forget Dutrow's past, the brutal and unfortunate truth seems that Dutrow's the best available to IEAH on the east coast and so they did make the correct decision in trainer selection.

I want to do a few posts on Dutrow's handling of the horse and my conclusions on KY Derby training, and then back to the crucial topic that we'll be watching as the Belmont approaches--spacing of breezing and racing for injury prevention--can Dutrow get this lightly raced horse through the Belmont in one piece, a huge question!

Training:
Wed. 5/14 Riderless 90% speed 5 x 1f + tack work.
Thurs. 5/15 Off.
Fri. 5/16: 10 min trot for Art, bellying work for Rod.
Sat. 5/17: Art trotted the course for 1.25 miles. Rod did 1 mile riderless slow + bellying. Nob's said he's about to get on.

Preakness Day

"The man that once did sell the lion's skin while the beast lived, was killed with hunting him."

Food for thought to Big Brown connections from Mr. S.

Here is Dutrow working out at Gold's this morning:

The master-blaster inspiring himself I'm supposing for the Big Brown Preakness morning 2f blowout. Did it actually come off?

What was Dutrow thinking planning a breeze on race day? Whatever, query whether it had anything to do with exercise science, or common sense. I'm amazed the powers that be would allow it and fail to intervene.

With the sport hanging by it's toenails, TV contracts in danger, investigations pending, do we read this morning in the Blood Horse one word about injury prevention, special pre-race diagnostics or of any steps to protect these horses? I saw some handicapping tips and that's all.

I'll post a few thoughts on Big Brown training tomorrow and how Dutrow has handled things. Hopefully they'll all come out of this ok and that the jocks will protect this weakly trained field.

Thanks to Bill for the Interval Training comment last post. Probably little has changed since Ivers. But, it will.

Training:
Wed: 5/14: Off
Thurs. 5/15: riderless 5 x 1f at 90% speed + 10 min trot under tack for Art.
Fri: 5/16 Art: had his maiden voyage around our "course". Encountered two deer that he handled well and a few strides of gallop. Rod did his first steps solo walking while being bellied.

Colonel John's Run

A word about the Preakness tomorrow, but now some more on the inexplicable Derby performance by Colonel John as well as the puzzling decision to take CJ off the TC trail.

One can see from the photo that CJ is the one horse (still alive) that has the size, strength, bearing to take on Big Brown, and a look at the PPs and those You Tube CJ videos shows a training regimen that should have clicked in big time had they chosen to go on, particularly with the post Derby near non-training job being accomplished by Dutrow.

I noted last post that they made a few mistakes with this horse, and that the training, though very good, was short of perfection. And so my reaction of incredulity when the horse basically froze up at the quarter pole. This was totally unexpected given the prep.
You can see from the stretch photo below (shortly before the 1/8) that CJ (white cap and shadow roll on the outside) is but three strides from Big Brown who then spurted away.
We're without any spurting here from CJ. Why?

Could have been anything, of course, bleeding, injury, anything but exhaustion unless you look at it very closely. As usual, there's an explanation.

First, a look at the trip, and then some of the niceties of CJ training compared to Street Sense.

CJ was trained "similar" (I put it in quotes for a reason) to Street Sense and most obviously had a trip planned in advance exactly like Nafzger's (and Tafel's) horse. Unlike SS however, CJ came out of the gate on the bridle, very eager(interpret: failed to train for the trip that resulted), received a bump or two and had to be restrained due to traffic. My guess that CJ expended himself down the lane the first time far more than SS a year ago. Simultaneously, due to the mistake in planning lady luck left Cory Nakatani almost hopelessly behind from the get go given his horse's training.

Like SS CJ began a (obviously planned) drive down the back stretch. Unlike SS I believe (he was out of the video) CJ started his run before the 5.5 pole, whereas the SS run basically began at the 5f. CJ was thus asked to run almost a whole furlong sooner than SS, which proved a fatal error.

Moreover SS was on the rail and CJ was strung out wide for his whole run creating at least a 1/4 furlong deficit in distance by the quarter pole. But, there's more. I timed the inside SS move from the 5f to the 2f at :37.5. The similar CJ outside move was 34.4 by my rough calculation.--at least a :35. CJ was flying whereas SS was merely galloping fast. SS was :23 between the 3f and the 1f because there was something left after the slower run. CJ due to his longer and faster run and greater early expenditure of effort was done.

CJ by his training had become a machine of a horse. We might have expected CJ to endure this move and go on. Believe he failed for a few reasons:

1. SS had been primed for such a move since early January by his trainer and jock. CJ was not. The Santa Anita Derby shows CJ midpack and the run in that race was 2f at the most instead of the 6f he was asked for in the Derby. CJ had never remotely done anything either in his training or racing that he was asked for in the Derby.
2. SS by his training was an extremely conditioned fit animal. The moxy to go on at speed had been trained into the horse (though Nafzger fell short on speed training which cost him the TC in the Preakness). CJ on the other hand basically did the same workout every day which was far superior to other Derby trainees, but in terms of creating strength and bottom for this long a race and the move asked proved insufficient.

In short, CJ was asked for a long sustained speedy run in the middle of the 1.25 mile race. We have it on video that the training for this fell short. Such you get imo with a trainer that runs horses with their tongue flapping.

I think it's ludicrous they failed to continue with this horse. They did all that work, the nice regular breezes. This is the one horse with enough bottom that with some intelligent work to the Preakness would have run down BB given what Dutrow is about. Disappointing, with the caveat that I am only guessing about this decision made by people that deserve respect.

(Postscript: please note zero words re synthetic surface. Probably takes different muscles. Migh have had an effect. Training failure to get on dirt sooner after Santa Anita Derby?)

Training:
Tues: 5/13: riderless 5 x 1f about 80% speed. Tack work.
Wed. 5/14: Off
Thurs. 5/15 riderless 5 x 1f about 90% speed. The ground is hard, so we're getting bone development without pushing them. Each run is basically 2f by the time they go in and out. So, about 10f of riderless work with speed in the middle. Art did 10 min. trotting with a few steps of gallop under tack afterwards.

What Happened To Colonel John?

The RR Derby pick Colonel John tanked which requires explanation, at least to myself since I'd rated this the best Derby training job. With some talent and superior training generally we'll see a good performance, and thus, in this Derby the Casner horse appeared a bit of an obvious choice.(In the photo Susan Casner holds the bridle.) But, CJ finished up the track, and so I've reviewed my thoughts and comments and replayed the Santa Anita Derby and the Derby multiple times focusing on CJ. A few musings on these races vis a vis the training follows.

My 5/1 post evaluated training jobs. Eion Harty received an "A" but relative to the field. I was grading on the curve. I had some quibbles with Harty and posted a few of them. I was foremost concerned with possible lack of attention to detail by a trainer who races a horse with a flapping tongue. Sorry to make such a big point of this one small/big issue. What this indicates to me is a trainer/coach/manager who for all his IQ in this particular endeavor possibly fails to think things through.

We are just now coming to fully understand there's very little room in that equine mouth. With a view to this in the last few years we've seen coming on more humane bits with flat as opposed to bumpy joints between the snaffles. Anybody who puts on a bridle on a daily basis understands you're unable to put too much in there or you will get that tongue flapping.

The flapping tongue may also be something as simple as tying the tongue tie too tight or positioning it improperly. In any event it's a bit hard for me to fathom a major trainer sending his horse to the track day after day (see Pyro) with a flapping tongue that is such an easy thing to remedy with different equipment.

That's me of course. I'd like to hear Harty's take on it. But, regards Colonel John's performance it's a red flag. When I move from the Intermediate Chess room to the Advanced the ducks need to be aligned or my head winds up on the platter.

I do believe that we see lack of attention to detail in CJ's performance. It begins with a curious choice of post position for a horse that fails to break well. For what possible reason would they choose post 10 where the slow breaker IS going to get accordioned from both sides? If Eion Harty failed to watch the exact same thing happen to Kudos in the 2002 Santa Anita Derby in "On The Muscle" you'd think Susan Casner had watched that video a few times and figured with a slow breaking horse you pick anything but the middle.

Choice of post positions was exacerbated because they also had on board a jock who seems a bit shy in getting position at this stage of his career. You see the lack of "getting position" both in the Santa Anita Derby where Nakatani allows CJ to be shuffled back around the final turn, and in the Derby where he needs to come out hard but completely fails and gets shuffled back an insurmountable distance right off the bat.

After being left in the dust the first time down the straightaway there was little Nakatani could do except what subsequently happened. But, before taking you around the Derby track with the horse (which explains the result), another question. In planning strategy for this particular Derby, is there any way to beat Big Brown except to stay close from the get go? Seems obvious from the Florida Derby on, and that you thus train your horse in that direction. Never happened, nor did these folks (apparently) plan the race that way. We'll see why next post, and will query whether CJ might have run the best race in this Derby.

Training:
Tues: 5/13: Both colts did riderless short spurts, maybe 1/2 F with gallop outs. Did 6 or 7 of these. They are fliers and looked good. 10 min tack work with Art who for the first time started to trot the training course as step one to commencing to gallop. More bellying with Rod.

How'd They Do II?

Here they are again:

Big Brown B+
Eight Belles B
Dennis of Cork B+
Tale of Ekati B-
Recapturetheglory C
Colonel John A
Anak Nakal D
Pyro A-
Cowboy Cal C
Z Fortune C+
Smooth Air no grade given
Visionaire C
Court Vision C+
Z Humor C+
Cool Coal Man D
Bob Black Jack A-
Gayego C-
Big Truck B-
Adriano B-
Monba C

The aim in the training grades (based strictly on appropriate training for performance instead of injury prevention) was to correlate performance with the training. Was there any such correlation? It seems so!

First, we throw out the last six horses from this analysis. We're unable to judge training effect unless the horse runs all the way around. These last six for whatever reason were not persevered with, and so we're unable to make any analysis. Probably the usual reasons, injury, breathing or lactic acid lock up, or merely the jock trying to protect the horse after a game effort as with Bob Black Jack.

But, for those finishing ahead of Cool Coal man, we see fairly consistent results with a couple of exceptions. The middle group from Cowboy Cal down all received grades of C+ or lower. And from Cowboy Cal up, all Bs or As except Recapturetheglory and Anak Nakal.

On these latter two, note:

RECAPTURETHEGLORY: On 5/2 I wrote that he "could be right there or he could fade out of sight". On 5/3 I wrote "I doubt the 2 mile work will rescue him". This proved incorrect. On 5/2 I'd written that Recapture is a fit horse, and probably had done more volume galloping wise than most of the field. Should have stuck to my guns and expected a big performance. But, do you wonder what Recapture might have done had Roussell thrown in a few more breezes and conducted that last one 4 days instead of 8 days out? The mind of the trainer perplex's a bit, and now, too bad for everybody, he's out of the Preakness. Given what Big Brown is up to these days, Recapture might have made that race very interesting.

ANAK NAKAL: I was wrong on this one. Should have believed my eyes. I was so down on Zito after War Pass that I might have ignored that Zito did a fairly solid job with this horse. When I did the final training grade for Anak and Cool Coal Man I lumped the two together in my mind. My Pavlov reaction to grading Zito would be an automatic "D" at this point. But, had I heeded my own notes of 4/26 and 27 I'd have recalled that in works/races for the year Anak Nakal ranked an impressive 6th, and in furlongs traveled 9th still solid. Most importantly in my final grade here I ignored the pre-derby video of Anak which shows a really nice horse reasonably fit and galloping well. Again, query, had Zito breezed this horse 5 days before the Derby instead of 9 days out...?

The mystery of Colonel John's performance, next post.

Training:
Monday 5/12: time's flying, but we're back in mode. They've worked 4 days now out of the last 6. Riderless with both colts for 10 minutes without stopping that went roughly 4f slow galloping without any urging, a little trot then back into the gallop. Tack work with both: Art walked 7 minutes for the first time into the pasture areas frequented by deer and other little wild interlopers and handled it well. Bellying work with Rod the two year old.

How'd They Do?

RR slips yesterday into some sarcasm concerning Eight Belles and what's going on. Hopefully today I've regained my composure and will be able to muffle and keep the blog informative instead of hypercritical. Grouchiness from creeping age serves as good enough excuse + I have to watch this stuff for 20 years and still hear freak accident from Larry Bramlage and the Editor of the Blood Horse, bringing to mind, why all the hub bub over an accident?

More Eight Belles later in the coming summaries on injury prevention and trying to make some sense out of all this, but, for now, how did they do in the Derby vis a vis the training grades from the May 3 post?

My grades tended to by higher for the harder trainers, lower for the powder puffs, but numerous factors were considered. Google shows I visited the KY Derby website 48 times. Lol. And, again the disclaimer that the evaluations were in terms of getting a Derby "performance" instead of injury prevention. The latter would have required application of different parameters that I never looked at. Should have done it, in retrospect.

Here is the order of finish in the Derby followed by the grade from the May 3 post:

Big Brown B+
Eight Belles B
Dennis of Cork B+
Tale of Ekati B-
Recapturetheglory C
Colonel John A
Anak Nakal D
Pyro A-
Cowboy Cal C
Z Fortune C+
Smooth Air no grade given
Visionaire C
Court Vision C+
Z Humor C+
Cool Coal Man D
Bob Black Jack A-
Gayego C-
Big Truck B-
Adriano B-
Monba C

Some thoughts on these results, tomorrow.

Training:
Sun. 5/11: after 2 weather days off we recommenced. Planned a light riderless work in the mud but both colts showed a lot of energy and ran much harder than I wanted. Extremely energetic work with some speed. We'll have to lighten it a bit this evening.

Appropriate Response (Sunday Edition)

I became a participant in horse racing in 1983. Since that year I've seen break down after breakdown at all levels of racing, and just this week we have a Blood Horse Article titled "Catastrophic Injuries: What We Know" summed up (with RR editorials) as follows:

1. A "voluntary" on track injury reporting system that indicates the fatality rate is "extremely low", "only" 1.5 per 1000 starts (never mind the 10% that limp back to the barn. How do I know this, anyway?)
2. It is "unclear" whether racing fillies against males is an issue.(Is that still unclear?)
3. Youngsters are "not" injured more than older horses. (the injury rate for both is horrendous.)
4. "Once horses with an increased risk of injury are identified, it will be possible to intervene and potentially decrease the number of race track injuries." (Huh? Dr. McIlwraith please consider instead identifying the horse "not" at risk. It's a much smaller number.)
5. We now have a serum bio-marker test to predict pre-fracture injury (that no one associated with the 2008 Derby ever heard of, apparently.)
6. McIlwraith "envisions" future pre-race diagnostic scanning. (When, in 2108?).
7. The TB industry is "dedicated" to race horse safety evidenced by:
Barbaro Fund
Medication and Testing Consortium
Education services provided by Am. Assn. Equine Practitioners (vets).
Aggressive efforts in the field of joint disease (really?)
Active charitable efforts (SC Equine Foundation)
Synthetic Surfaces
The new Jockey Club Safety Committee (first meeting ever 5/14/08.)
Regular meeting of Welfare and Safety Summit.

That's it folks, as written by "Dr. Stacey Oke". Presume that he/she is a vet, and that the article is Exhibit 1 as to why veterinarians should be removed from being in charge of race horse welfare. That's all he/she could think to put in the article. Anyone see any substance whatsover in the above. In short, according to the article, we know nothing presently about catastrophic injury, even though I've been personal witness to one after another for 25 years.

The truth is, the article is bunk. It is merely further evidence of the mind numbing gobbledygook we've seen come out of the Eight Belles tragedy and the disconnect between those at the highest level of the sport and the real cause of race track injuries.

To prevent excessive length I will here succinctly type up an appropriate response to Eight Belles, and anyone may comment and denounce and berate me severely if they choose:

1. ACKNOWLEDGE THE CAUSE: 95% of race track injuries including catastrophic breakdowns result from training negligence or misjudgment and insufficient, inappropriate warm up.
3. OFFICE OF EQUINE EXCERCISE PHYSIOLOGY: Establish one headed by Exercise Physiologists instead of Vets, and commence forthwith to relate equine injury to equine exercise science.
4. STATISTICS: yes, continue them, expand them and make them mandatory. Every trainer keeps a daily training log, time, distance, frequency.
5. STEWARD'S INVESTIGATIONS: every race day breakdown. Give 'em something to do. Report results to Racing Commission and Exercise Physiology Office at Grayson Jockey Club.
5. PROBATION: Trainers of horses suffering catastrophic breakdown put on immediate probation, produce their logs and suspended if negligent--my personal guarantee that this will end 75% of breakdowns.
6. TRACK SURFACES: Commence serious research. How hard is it really, if you put your mind to it, to come up with one?
7. MANDATORY ENTRY STANDARDS for TC and the Breeder's Cup in terms of prior racing and breezing.
8. WARM UP PROCEDURES: Research and set minimum standards.
9. PRE-RACE (and post-race) DIAGNOSTICS FOR TC and Breeders Cup, comprehensive, immediate, and to include scanning.
10. STAGGER THE TC RACES: The TC races were scheduled in an era of tough training. In an era of powder puff training, we need to reconsider the schedule.
11. CANCEL 2008 Preakness and Belmont till we get a handle on this thing. These races are fraught with risk. Dutrow wants to avoid running. There's a reason for that.

Notice specifically there's nothing above about whips, genetics, two year old racing, drugs, horse rescue, etc, worthy issues in their own right, but none having anything whatever to do with Eight Belles or the immediate necessity for action. I will be in complete shock if they fail to improve pre-race diagnostics for next week's Preakness.

Training:
Sat. 5/10/08: The 2 hour rain delay at Royals Stadium also applied to us. Rain out. Today, however, wind and sun, so we should be back in business tonight.

Saturday Morning

and I'm taking a personal time out from horse racing. Into the mild for a few hours. I hope to take a look at Derby performances in light of pre-race training next week, and maybe some final thoughts about Eight Belles and the reaction and happenings, including lack of Big Brown sightings the last couple of days. Good weekend to all from KCMO!

Training:
Frid. 5/9: decided to take the day off due to weather in hopes we'd have a perfect surface for speed work Saturday.

Appropriate Response (continued)

Looks like it's happening from what I'm reading today. One can imagine the phone call from Dell Hancock to Dinny Phipps, "Dinny we've got to do something." Has Eight Belles achieved what Barbaro, Pine Island, and George Washington were unable, and gotten their attention?

Recapturetheglory trotted a mile and galloped a mile this morning. Big Brown trotted only a mile. Why the difference? Do either Roussell or Dutrow have the resources from the NTRA or the Jockey Club or from anywhere to determine what they need to do to avoid another disaster in the Preakness? The sport seems to be working on this at the same time we're looking at a 46 million dollar first quarter loss by Magna. My word.

I'm trying to put together the next post, and thanks for the nice comments. Thought I'd post today the training of "Bold" for the Preakness by Preston Burch. Then "Assault" by Max Hirsch. You may contrast it with today's training and wonder why they were sounder "back then":

BOLD in 1951:

to May 1: Bold had 31 breezes (no races) to May 1 though he was off with bruised feet from 2/19 to 3/19.

May
1: 1 mile in 1:40 2/5 at Belmont (1:55 4/5 for 9f).
4: 5f in :59 (6f in 1:12).
8: 3f in :35 (4f in 47.3)
9: First start of year, 1 1/16 mile allowance, won by 12 lengths.
13: 3f in :35 (4f in :48.2)
14: Preakness Prep Purse, 1 1/16 mile, beaten by a neck.
15: shoes pulled due to sore feet.
18: 5f 1:02
19: Won Preakness.

After the Preakness Bold ran a prep race for the Belmont and found to be suffering from a sore shin and splint (did they do a little too much). Was turned out and killed by lightening while in a paddock at the farm--so writes Preston Burch.

ASSAULT in 1946:

May 1: Assault breezed/raced 39 times for the year to May 1.
April 30: finished 4th in the Derby Trial Stakes
May 3: 4f in :48
4: Won Kentucky Derby
8: 3f in :40.
9: 8f in 1:45
11: Won Preakness

In the one week to the Preakness Assault breezed twice. He breezed 9 more times between Preakness and Belmont on June 1.

Training:
Wed. 5/7 Easy 10 min riderless with both colts, though there were a few short play sprints involved. With the 3 year old we're trying to maintain fitness in the transition to galloping under tack. 10 min tack work in the pasture with Art. The gentle Art is a handful in the saddle. Needing to be careful. Nob reports yesterday was a baby step backward.

Appropriate Response

"The native hue of resolution is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
and enterprises of great pith and moment, in this regard, their currents gone awry,
do lose the name of action."

from Mr. S came to mind as I was sitting in traffic this morning providing me ample time to consider the implication of Eight Belles, the response, and what I have personally invested in the sport. With a lot on the line for us in racing, anger has commenced to be my emotion of the moment.

Great horses lately dropping like flies, it all began with Charismatic in 1999, to two on consecutive days over the weekend, is it time to call a halt? Fair warning that this post becomes rather opinionated about Eight Belles.

For those convinced this was a freak accident of the sort that "just happens" in horse racing, see if you've the same conclusion after putting this to the microscope.

I've already posted 4/26 that EB had 9 works/races for the year in 18 weeks, and traveled about 56 furlongs at speed. Yet, this inadequate workload, less than every other horse in the field and half as many as a lot of them, only scratches the surface of the problem. (and thanks to Bill documenting this in the comments to my last post as I type).

Consider that EB worked/raced only one time each in December and January and twice February, four times in 12 weeks or once every three weeks. This light a workload is dangerous for any horse much less one pointed to the Derby. EB's pre-March schedule was insufficient for bone development and actually would cause resorption of speed specific bone. Every trainer knows, or ought to know that.

Every trainer additionally ought to know that you always (100% of the time) avoid surprising a horse with a sudden increase in workload--Mandella e.g. in On The Muscle, "the works are progressive" Yet, EB commencing 3/10 suddenly increases her work/race workload from once every three weeks to almost once a week. At this point Jones is just begging for trouble. He knows it, I know it, and everybody that trains horses knows it.

EB's works were other than progressive, the total work load was also insufficient to prevent a fracture. For further clarification please note-- Readers of the blog will understand that race specific "fracture resistance" requires the horse to travel at least :12.5/f in their works. Slower even carrying 215 lbs will fail to get the job done. The blog is just now on"frequency" and how often we must do this for fracture resistance, but confide that it's way more frequently than once every two or three weeks.

The above means that the race ready appearance and strength of the filly, due in all likelihood to what Jones was doing with her under 215 lbs. on off days, is irrelevant to EB's bone development. Regardless of how fit, cardiovascularly, anaerobically, aerobically, EB had gotten from Jones slow day galloping schedule, the schedule for Derby horse bone development was grossly negligent. And, again, to clarify, you are unable to get this bone development by suddenly increasing the schedule 7 weeks out.

Now, Jones claims his filly was in perfect health going into the Derby. Unlikely. I will guarantee with my last breath that after that :58 work on 4/27 followed by the 2 minute lick under 215 lbs 3 days later that this filly showed significant heat in exactly the area where she fractured. How do I know this. Again most trainers will understand you're unable to get away with this sort of back to back work unscathed. Never happens, and in particular would never happen with a filly this young, this tall, and this lightly trained. The probability: Pre-Derby this horse was showing heat in her lower cannons, which will explain why Jones went very easy from 4/30 to the Derby.

By Derby day with the light work the heat would have disappeared and EB's legs somehow passed State Vet inspection. Too bad they never put infrared thermography on her. I feel sure that those fetlocks and lower cannons would have lit up that machine like a Christmas Tree.

How we ougtht respond in my world, tomorrow.

Training: Art off. Light riderless work with Rod.

Preventing Eight Belles

Will we get any carefully thought out analysis of the extent to which horse racing screwed up this past weekend and what might be done to prevent? Will be interesting what we get from such as Dan Liebman, Steven Haskin, Tom Hammonds, Mike Battaglia. Alan at Left at the Gate who left a comment here last post is one of those with the ability to put this in perspective.

Interesting in my last post that we get a comment from a young exercise physiologist. I'd say Bill stated the general problem rather succinctly. For Alan, I feared that in the jumble of this blog my caveat on the trainer ratings would be lost. I should have repeated it in the final grades. In the 5/1/07 "Best Training Jobs" post I prefaced by noting "This post will evaluate performance potential instead of injury prevention". There's a (big) difference. Had I rated the training in terms of injury prevention, from what showed, Jones probably would have been last, though I've yet to look at that closely.

Preferring to avoid the blog becoming a siren to impending disaster except in situations of gross negligence (Rags, Eight Belles), I've declined to date to post my injury concerns before major races. I'll note simply my belief that had the entire Derby field been pressed to the extent of Eight Belles several others might possibly have gone down.

That's were horse racing is at right now. It's other than a Larry Jones-Rick Porter problem.

Consider:

1. War Pass in the Wood was a few strides from a similar disaster.
2. Ditto Rags to Riches in last year's Belmont where post race they reported a fracture in a hind.
3. George Washington was utterly unprepared for what he was asked to do in the Breeder's Cup.
4. Pine Island's pasterns were a disaster waiting to happen, and yet a top trainer and owner chose to go on with her.
5. Careful attention to the fact that Barbaro was failing to switch leads in all of his early races switched in the Florida Derby only when forced by circumstances should have alerted those connections to an impending problem.
6. Would you send any of these lightly trained colts to the Preakness without full diagnostic evaluation, nuclear scans, etc?

These disasters are other than a "deal with it situation". Horse racing despite it's lack of resources is able to structure itself institutionally to prevent 80-90% of these breakdowns, and it should never happen in a nationally televised race except to the extent that a breakdown would indeed be a freak accident.

Here are some random thoughts on what might be done:

1. Research begins on minimum training standards necessary to avoid injury.
2. Minimum standards established.
3. Transfer research from veterniarians to trained exercise physiologists.
4. Any trainer that has a horse break down in a race suffers immediate probation pending investigation of pre-race training, diagnostics, violation of established standards, and appropriate suspension where negligence is found.
5. Televised races would involve more stringent standards training. A George Washington should never get into the Breeder's Cup, nor an Eight Belles in the Derby.
7. State Vets need to be given additional pre-race diagnostic tools in major races beyond the use of their hands, including infra-red thermography, and certainly for such as the Derby or Breeder's Cup, nuclear scanning.
6. Horse protection needs to become the #1 priority: Stewards, Race Track Executives, State Vets, Racing Commissions, NTRA.

Training:
We've been at it. Nob reports break through tack work with Art last night.

Eight Belles And Probable Cause

Horse racing suffers another hard shot to the groin as we fathom the powers that be (are there any?) permitting this continuing parade of self inflicted suicide on national TV. My "Derby Worries" post of 4/29/08 stated my opinion of this vulnerable filly being entered in the Derby, and I stand by that. My purpose here is information instead of recrimination. I've lost a horse, one of my first. I know what's in Larry Jones' gut this morning, and despite the unrepentant remarks in his post race comments, this fellow seems to me one of the good guys in horse racing, and one of the candidates to be a leader in the sport. I feel certain that Jones is evaluating his own misjudgment vis a vis his owner. He's the one with the trainer's license.

I've reviewed the Eight Belles info available, race and workout videos, reports, analysis trying to fully figure out what happened here. Qualify everything below by "there's a lot that's unknown" which might change one's thoughts.

First we have Rick Porter's unfortunate pre-race comments to the effect that "every owner wants a Derby horse"indicating the decision to enter involved other than the welfare of the horse. There are Larry Jones comments about "we feel good about this", "we have considered everything", "she has the size to compete with colts" when in retrospect they obviously made a terrible misjudgment, failed to consider what is most important, and instead of reaching a responsible decision of running the horse in the Oaks or keeping her out altogether, got caught up in the emotion of the moment.

Yet, the decision here in some respects was a close call provided you ignored certain disturbing facts.

Jones had in his barn a horse which:

1. he trained.
2. he rode himself, huge in terms of judging fitness, cardiovascular efficiency and strength.
3. that in terms of talent seems a female version of Big Brown
4. a horse that seems comparatively easy on herself with a long flowing ground flicking stride.
5. that, as Jones correctly noted, was performance fit in all the various parameters. That judgment proved right on.

Thus, a horse that looks the part, runs the part and trains the part. Why avoid the entry? It seems the following were omitted from consideration:

1. The horse under any rational standard had insufficient works/races to have developed safe fracture resistance at max pressure of a 1.25 mile colt race.

Number of works/races for the year: EB, dead last with one half the work of the top colts. (see 4/26 post)
Number of furlongs worked/raced for the year: EB, dead last (4/27)

2. With a grossly insufficient foundation EB had her breeze/race workload doubled in the 5 weeks leading to the Derby in anticipation of the entry:

EB from 2/11 to 3/30, about 7 weeks, does 4 works/races. Between 3/31 and 5/3 i.e. in 4.5 weeks, she does 5 works/races. Between 2/11 and 3/30 she works/races 26 furlongs. Between 3/31 and 5/3 she works/races 32 furlongs.

3. EB's skeletal structure was utterly unprepared for the 1.25 miles of Derby pressure.

EB' races for the year were all but one runaways with a field frozen behind her. In those races the talented EB just lopes along. The one race with pressure involves only the final strides.

4. EB in Derby week exceeds the load on her lightly prepared skeleton.

EB does :58.1 on 4/26 and three and three days later is seen carrying 215 lbs in :14 to :17 second furlongs around the track. Those two workouts back to back would be enough to make me run for my Xray and thermography machines.

Final Thoughts...(Edited)

In general, this is the no brainer, see and believe your eyes Derby, that might be compromised by mud. This race contains zero dogs and 20 good horses with two exceptional standouts. If you're trying to distrust what you see and nitpick against Big Brown and Colonel John, cease, desist and do believe your eyes that these are two of the best colts that have been out there.

First, the final training grades. How'd the trainers do, relatively speaking?

A
Colonel John--parts of that last breeze were a 1:45 mile.

A- Bob Black Jack
Pyro

B+
Big Brown
Dennis of Cork (I will reduce this grade below.)(edit: track closed 5/3. DOC keeps his grade)

B Eight Belles (a lot is unknown, but you can judge by appearance here.)

B- Adriano
Big Truck
Tale of Ekati

C+ Court Vision--Mott's horses are downgraded due to weak training before April.
Z Humor
Z Fortune--too soft of late

C Visionaire
Monba
Cowboy Cal

C- Gayego
Recapturetheglory--I'm doubting the 2 mile work will rescue him.

D Cool Coal Man
Anak Nakal

No grade--Smooth Air.

How's RR see the race: Eliminate Zito's as graded too low. Smooth Air unfortuately is out. Dennis of Cork is eliminated and downgraded to C+ training due to that planned (ridiculous) 1 1/8 mile trot on Derby morning. Now we know why the horse was flat as a pancake in Illinois. Ditto Visionaire who's also trotting a mile Derby Morning. (Edit: Sat. morning the track closed due to weather.)

I expect effort out of Tagg's pair. I think they'll extend their gallops, but in the end believe they'll struggle like No Biz last year. Consistency. Adriano should be flying around the quarter pole before his training meets up with the stronger. By the 1/8 pole I'd expect anybody with a grade of C+ or worse above to have hit the wall in terms of lactic acid build up. The trained horses will go on--Pyro, Colonel John and Big Brown, (edit: Dennis of Cork), and quite possibly Bob Black Jack. BBJ will be physically out gamed, I fear, and Asmussen in the final strides might well finally pay for his powder puff stuff.

(Edit: Dennis of Cork? Kept off the track 5/3 he becomes dangerous. Only handicapping intution keeps me from putting this one right close at the wire. Enough talent and training to control the race but for the top two. This one should wilt under pressure from the top two.)

That leaves Colonel John and Big Brown. Dutrow has made some errors. Will BB pay for them in the end is the question. I believe so, and CJ will go on to win.

(As an aside: the crow is in the pot and will broil through the afternoon for possible consumption just in case any horse rated less than B- should win, including Dennis of Cork.)

The Rest:

D.W. Lukas Training:

1. COOL COAL MAN/ANAK NAKAL:

Works/races for the year: Average/Above Average
Works/races since 3/15: Average/Above Average
Furlongs: Below Average
Spacing: Ever 9 or 10 days + up to three weeks post race. CCN has only one :48 breeze since 4/12 and it was 9 days out.
Quality of work 10 days out: I've been pleased to see Zito galloping his horses on most off days. That's a relief in terms of injury prevention. Basically it looks as if Zito has morphed completely into a DW Lukas trainer with one exception, he primarily breezes only 4f. Yes, do feel sorry for the horse. They'll run out of gas about the 6f pole.

THE INEXPLICABLE/PUZZLING/QUESTIONABLE LUCK:

1. GAYEGO:

Works/races for the year: 17th
Works/races since 3/15: 4, way below average
Furlongs: about average. Several breezes were longer.
Spacing: Another colt with one breeze, albeit a good one since 4/12, but, 7 days out.
Quality of work 10 days out: exceptionally perplexing. This horse had but one short gallop after his 4/26 breeze, then they decided to take him out for a second gallop 5/2.

Analysis: you hate to throw this one out due to strength and talent. Obviously close exam relates the trainer is an inexplicable dead head. This stuff works in Brazil and Arkansas. Against Colonel John, no way. Up the track, and it's a shame.

2. RECAPTURETHEGLORY:

Works/races for the year: 19th
Works/races since 3/15: 5, below average
Furlongs: average
Spacing: Last one 8 days out on 4/25. That's nearly Zito like. They brag on his hard 2mile gallops. The video shows the horse loping along in 20 second furlongs.
Quality of work 10 days out: the horse worked down the lane as part of a one mile gallop 5/2.

Analysis: This horse has done more volume in his off day gallops than the rest. Thus, interesting conditioning. This is a fit, as opposed to unfit, horse. That was a nice race he ran in Illinois. This is the puzzling one for me. He could be right there, or he could fade out of sight.

3. SMOOTH AIR:
Near #1 in works/races for year, furlongs, works since 3/15. Lengthy works. I'm uncertain what he did in off days, but suspect it's decent. This is an example of how a couple of days off can blow your mind as a trainer. Stutts handled this horse so well before 4/23, but completely blew it thereafter. I feel for the guy and the connections. It's anathema, but, should have galloped right through a mild fever and done his stuff. Smooth Air might have competed. Now, I fear up the track is a certainty.