Tues. Misc.

Getting to computer again too late for anything complicated.

Training:

11/26: riderless-- 4f full speed + 5 or 6 2f heats full speed. Stopped w/o short of maxing out.

Sat: 11/27: Off

Sun. 11/28: As it worked out, planned slow day quickly evolved into riderless all out sprinting as horses again 36 hrs. post last w/o into it on a brisk/windy day, boogey man out/Mr. Nob refuses to get on. Decision made, speed today OK. 1 mile + 1 mile farlek. Each mile included 5f full speed. Horses still hepped then, 2 more miles on their own--:15s and :16s. Nice w/o.

Mon. 11/29: Off.

Sat. Misc.

Bone post under construction.

Training:

11/24: Off

11/25: Off. Thanksgiving.

11/26: Client kept me late in the office and too late for tack work. Probably fastest riderless speed work this night that has been accomplished in the paddock. The horses were into it in ideal ground conditions. The first heat was a full speed 4f. Thereafter we did 5 or 6 2f heats all out. Nice w/o just short of a max type w/o. In August two of us were driving the horses through this for a full mile. Unable to do that now because it's just me, and I am unable myself to drive the lazy one full speed for a whole mile, although my sprints back and forth are getting stronger. Hence am settling for shorter heats that I can get accomplished alone. 36 hours to the next. Am very pleased with the athleticism and speed being shown by the horse.

Frequency Conclusions III

"Strength and toughness depend on....."

Posing the question--when the elements come together what are the causes, forces, designs in nature which form materials, in this case bone, bone toughness, and strength?

In the medieval era on back the unseen hand of God provided explanations, and this is still used by many of our trainers. Then, late 15th century, Francis Bacon in Novum Organum finally shifted the focus of these questions from religion to science. We'd prefer then in our era to look for discernable explanations.

In the case of bone material they characterize these in terms as:

self assembly

size and arrangement patterns

orientation

shape

Research I noted somewhere stated "strength and toughness" depend on the size/arrangement pattern of the fibrils.

The Max Planck Institute Research on this blog late 2009, early 2010 showed the above statement as simplistic in terms of bone. There's more to strength and toughness than size and arrangement patterns of the fibrils, although the concept of that is what is being talked about.

In terms of calculating minimum frequency of speed work necessary for FR I have summarized this particular aspect as:

realignment of fibrils/osteons and rearrangement of materials in optimum directions.

You will understand realignment and self arrangementt by running or walking an appreciable distance and focusing on the sensation in your knee caps. You can almost feel the strain of the knee bone materials orienting into the direction of force. This is particularly noticeable launching up a flight of stairs.

This arrangement of bone materials--the fibrils, fibril arrays, osteons and so forth is illustrated below which shows indeed there are different arrangement patterns possible:

The middle left photo shows arrangement from ordered to random. Exercise tends to bring order to the arrangement. Again, Nunnamaker noted that arrangement of bone tissue organizes itself along the lines of stress.

The blog has previously explored this at length identifying rearrangement/reorientation as thee most significant of the various processes contributing to fracture resistance. Keep in mind this involves both the HA nano mineral crystals inside each individual collagen fibril, the fibril arrays, and even the larger osteonal structures. Presumably the greatest amount of reorientation will take place, per Nunnamaker, along the angles of greatest stress.

So now, the conclusion, how often must the horse do speed work to counter the inertia that will cause the fibrils to revert--after the race--to their less organized state i.e. keep them in their optimal positions for FR, and make this a permanent part of the structure.

My best guess is that there is a tiny little bit of nano movement with each work and that immediately post work the materials will tend or be pulled back to their pre-work shapes.

Imagine an individual collagen fibril moving slightly in response to concussive force from racing. For 48 hrs. post race there will be significant heat and circulation more easily permitting movement. However, water will fill up the nano-spacing created by this movement causing pressure that will tend to keep the newly oriented fibril in space. By the end of 48 hrs. this heat has subsided, water temp. goes down, there is less pressure, and other forces will tend to reverse the movement of the fibril. I'd think by day #3 post race the fibril will be significantly relaxing and reverting. By day #4--as just a wild guess--this fibril is likely to have reverted most of the way back to it's original position. There may be some residual positive effect in day #5 that could still be reinforced on that day. By post race day #6, I am thinking there would be but a precious few fibrils to reinforce in terms of new orientation other than those fibrils that have been "stuck" in new positions.

Thus, day #7 on outward, I'd think you get very little fibril rearrangement effect. Conclude: for realignment of fibrils/osteons and rearrangement of materials in optimum directions the minimums require speed work by 5 days post race.

Training:

11/25 and 11/26 Thanksgiving the horses were off (55 degrees down 18 around here).

Frequency Conclusions II

Summaries of the trainer stats have now been inserted into that last post. Anybody interested where those came from may look at the detailed look at those trainers on this blog prior to 1/29/09.

And so--I am now ready to pronounce my personal conclusions, first with regard to each individual process that has been identified as playing a role in fracture resistance, and also then an overall conclusion that will represent my belief how often a horse minimally needs to do speed work to stay sound.

Begin with again listing each process, and the a brief discussion.

contraction/compaction (increase density) of the mineral lattice--this one has already been concluded--the minimum to maintain this is 8 days.

increase in bone glue proteins that hold everything together--this one also, the minimum necessary to maintain the effect is 8 days.

adherence between some fibrils creating a stronger structure--the basic idea here is that the pressure, force, and concussion of the speed work pushes certain fibrils closer together reducing the nano-distances between them until e.g. two bone fibrils essentially adhere as one. Larger groups of fibrils at locations along the angle of force may do the same, thus creating a stronger structure. Adherence is probably an important component of what happens in the cannon bone of horses that do frequent speed work and galloping. What happens then if the horse fails to go back to the track for speed work within a specific time. When 2 fibrils are squeezed together during the race, and then kept together post race by increases in heat and sticky bone glue proteins they will still have, by inertia, the tendency to revert back to their original positions. Adherence is one of of the properties that probably needs quick additional speed work to reinforce itself and cause the fibrils to stick together permanently. My conclusion is that the minimum necessary here probably is about 5 days. If there is no speed work within 5 days of the race, suspect the fibrils will simply return to their pre race spacing. If there is speed work within the 5 day period, over time there would be a tendency of certain specific fibrils to permanently adhere.

Continue next post.

Training:

Tues. 11/23: The 36 hr. rest between training is working out very well. It seems that the extra rest increases the "quality" of the w/o that is possible as well as the volume that myself as trainer feels comfortable with. The horses certainly are more enthusiastic than a daily grind, and wind up doing substantially more work in terms of volume. With this protocol I have been able without problems to extend riderless speed work heats over up to 4 miles. Were we somehow to be able to maintain this schedule at a race track, suspect the volume of speed work that is possible under tack could also safely be dramatically increased.

This date: 4 times up and down the hill, trot-gallop, about 15 min. under tack. The gallop was slow as the horse finally got into it middle of heat 4. Riderless in light mud, they were really into it on a brisk night--I lost count. There were a couple of full speed 4f heats with the horses chasing each other all the way, and several 2-3f heats a little slower as well as a final slower mile. Full rests between.

Mon Misc.

Just back from the trip and the new/old car.

Training:

Sat: 11/20: 3 times gallop up and down hill + 4f riderless at speed in slippery mud before they escape the paddock.

Sun. 11/21: Off

Mon. 12/22: Horse is skittish in the wind from the get go. Everything is swaying, and our Mr. Nob is other than in mood to become the next Calvin Borel and his multiple fractured jaw. Tack work thus was done with care--4 times up and down the hill trot with a little short slow gallop. Horse finally settles down in heat 4, and we could have gone on from there. Instead we do riderless play in slippery mud for 3 miles. Great late Nov. weather!

Frequency Conclusions

Horses need do speed work for race appropriate fracture resistance. This all agree to. How often, is the question. Plecher style training? Preston Burch? Somewhere in between? Or, will any of this do?

The blog has looked at:

1. Circumstantial evidence--individual trainer exercise protocols, and trainer injury avoidance success rates. Summary here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2009/01/trainer-summariesa-continuing-post.html

2. Bone physiology, which has been posted on ad nauseum.

Query whether what the circumstantial evidence shows will jive with conclusions concerning physiology! While we already know that speed work every 4 days, to the extent that is possible by an exercise program, will keep the horse sound, the inquiry here is as to minimums--what is the least amount in terms of frequency that is necessary? Is it every 3 days (Burch); every 4 days (Ivers); every 5 days (probably yours truly); every 6 days (Dutrow); every 7 days (Plecher, Frankel); every 8 days; every 9 days (Zito, Lukas and their ilk); or more (Mr.and Ms. conventional trainer).

First, what may we conclude from bone physiology. There are all sorts of caveats there including lack of any equine research short of Nunnamaker and his Maryland Shin study. After a too close a look on this blog, I will now add my suppositions. After that will see how this correlates with the trainers stats.

The first thing I ran into in the way of conclusions concerned Nunnamaker's trainer, Frank somebody, forgot the name. Nunnamaker and Frank decided the shin research pointed to doing speed work every 5 days, and Frank tried this with 30 or so youngsters with very good results. Unfortunately they declined to outline what happened to these horses in their racing careers, probably because the results were predictably terrible. Why? Because our trainers agree to do a program hardly means they really know what they are doing.

Nevertheless, the 5 days thing coming from Nunnamker's work is interesting. My own work pointed fairly early concerning the bone glue and compactive processes resulting from speed work to believing that there was some positive effect all the way to 8 days out from the original speed work. This conclusion dealt with only two of the identified processes, all of which are summarized below:

contraction/compaction (increase density) of the mineral lattice

increase in bone glue proteins that hold everything together

adherence between some fibrils creating a stronger structure

realignment of fibrils/osteons and rearrangement of materials in optimum directions.

speed up of calcification/ossification/cell repair due to heat and dilation of circulatory structures,

Post race--a bounce back effect to pre-race conditions. We want to retard this bounce backwith timely subsequent speed work.

Each of the above was looked at in terms of how frequency of speed work would effect the particular process. These conclusions will now be summarized, next post.

Training:

Fri. 11/19 Off.

Sat. 11/20 36 hours after the 5 mile thing on Thurs: Tack work. Spook alert today which was hardly helped two dear rustling through the woods right beside the horse early, and--Mr. Nob miscalculates number of heats. Believe we wound up with 3 times, instead of 4, up and down the hill. Nob decides to call it after a second minor spook and duck in full gallop. Fastest in about :17s as the ground was too wet for speed work. The riderless work then was also aborted as the horses managed to escape the paddock. Nob forgot to tie the gate, and our 15 year old escape expert spotted it. No catching 'em then. We received the horse version of the fickle finger of fate as they galloped away. Did manage to get in 2 or 3 1f full speed bursts and one nice 4f burst in slippery mud before the escape. Off tomorrow to pick up the new car.

Fri. Misc.

Can see the planned frequency post requires more work. The blogger will be out of town tomorrow picking up a new car, which is viewed as important to get these horses to a race track since it's the wheels that allow us to do the back and forth. Thus, maybe back here on Sunday.

Training:

Wed. 11/17: Off. Rain.

Thurs. 11/18: Scratched tack work to avoid divets on wet ground. 5 miles riderless planned to let 'em go at their own speed after Tues speed work. Initial enthusiasm in brisk weather subsides about half way through for our lazy one and he had to be driven the rest of the way. Nice conditioning work for our big fat horse who was visibly skinnier this morning. I avoid bragging about volume since my training is more speed oriented.

QR, A Final Look

Here it is. 2010 BC Classic. Somebody took this nice shot after they crossed the wire with none other the QR trailing.

Rob comments the rail might have been dead. Unknown. Might think Plecher would have got his horse off the rail.

In any event, wondering. What would explain QR completely dying after a mile. They said the track was a tiring, and, without doubt, all of front 4 pack faded badly! Suspect QR jock simply declined to persevere after a breathing lock up due to lack of conditioning for the event. Dead rail might have contributed. QR last was asked for this kind of effort two months earlier. Can you get away with that for a race such as the BC Classic, given how Plecher trains?

And yet, there we see other Plechers winning races. How do you explain Uncle Mo?

Best guess--until blog gets to Q of "performance"--Plecher achieves a quantity of initial fitness in some way that is unknown to me. Subsequently Plecher training is rigorous enough that these great racing prospects maintain basic fitness and hence their speed for some time. Plecher's minimialist training style then eventually does them in and we get a QR in the BC Classic. Bears another look later in the blog. Frequency Conclusions tomorrow.

Training:

Wed. 11/17: normal off day after yesterday speed work. The inch of rain never materialized. About .02 inch maybe. Dawning on me slowly that the return to weather normalcy may be here.

Training

Driving into KC a couple of mornings ago, cloud bank hanging over downtown.(Left click on it.)

Our trainee from a couple of mornings ago preparing for the saddle.

Training:

Sat. 11/13: Off. Mud.

Sun. 11/14: Wet. Pasture romp.

Mon. 11/15 3 times up and down hill, trot gallop.

Tues. 11/16: One of our nicer w/os. Perfect weather, with ground conditions still muddy, but ok. 4 times up and down hill. Lazy Rod's redeeming quality, seems to love tack work. Mr. Nob reports enthusiastic trotting down hill to get back to gallop start point in manner of a kid running back up the water slide to slide back down--hey, this is fun. Was thinking, with good weather we'd have speed by Sunday, except this night Big Rod takes off all on his own without urging. A couple of speed heats, very wild with first tack speed work in 14 months. Mr. Nob get's off a little pale. It will smooth out in a few days. + riderless 5 x 3f as fast as they could go in light mud + 1 mile continuous in :14s and 15s.

Sun. Misc.

-- blurry video of farm living quarters from "5 pixel" Android phone. The blue house is vacant since Dick Zind moved out.

A little late to this today after training, and too weary(lazy) to get back to injury prevention. Why? They continue to investigate the brain:

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/007642.html

Particularly explanatory for my hit and miss blog. Same site that posted, earlier, brain swarm theory--i.e. our brains flit back and forth on subjects much like bird flock flits about in the sky--they are led by whoever initiates the flight, and so our brains are led by whatever thought pops into them as sort of a relic of our primitive past. As brain ages process becomes more chaotic, possibly.

Of note today-- I stumbled onto possible explanation for Quality Road BC Classic performance: photographic evidence, Post that tomorrow and then on to QR and fracture resistance.

Training:

Thurs. 11/11: Riderless 2 x 6f near all out + 2 miles continuous, 1 mile :14s-:15, second in :17s.

Fri. 11/12: Rain. Off.

Sat.11/13 Off. Mud.

Sun. 11/14: Wet--to avoid divets everywhere including the riderless paddock we conduct pasture romp. Rod was into it, an impressive display of straight line speed and we see again why we keep at it with him. start speed work gallops tomorrow!

Fri Misc.

Am in the process of making frequency conclusions. Eye to Quality Road and Plecher trainer. Voila, of interest today--Team Valor/Barry Irwin horses to Graham Motion, a bit of a Plecher clone. Will they rue the day? Irwin somewhat known because he's been around a long time (congrats for that), and he is an occasional commenter on Paulick. Avoid offense. Truth is truth. Irwin seems the typical couch potato owner taking little cognizance of the "training" aspect of the sport. Hence, G. Motion, pegged in some prior post here as one of those many 1990s style light trainers. Digressions. See how it goes. Will be interesting with Team Valor, and, good luck to them and all their efforts in the sport.

Training:

Thurs. 11/11: Riderless 2 x 6f near all out + 2 miles continuous, 1 mile :14s-:15, second in :17s.

Fri. 11/12: Rain. Off. Privately, mark November 12 a significant day for us.

And, What Of Quality Road

One of the best built horses ever, holder of a track record for 6.5f, high profile (seemingly) able trainer. What's the deal?

The popular line on QR was that he was suited to shorter distances and was unable to run 1.25 miles. The punditry will without a doubt decide the 2010 BC performance confirms this view.

On this blog, dig a little deeper. The distance QR was able to get in this race was barely a mile, and then a dying quail despite ballyhooed training where Plecher noted that since early Sept. they were preparing the horse for the distance.

And so, the non-performance of QR in the just completed 2010 BC Classic is an interesting subject for analysis. Leave this for future posts when this blog gets to the question of performance, except for this wild guess-- that the horse was utterly unprepared for the racing distance, and what he was asked to do in the race.

Now however, back to the question of Plecher style training in terms of injury avoidance, Qs I posed last week. QR might have stopped in the race due to bleeding or injury. Most likely he simply stopped because his breathing locked up due to lack of conditioning. As I'd noted, QR seems to have done just enough that there is fracture resistance, and probably the stop was due to other than injury. Continue next post.

Training: drastically oversleep and on an ideal day for galloping have time only for riderless work. After 48 hrs. off after a rigorous training week, and with rain incoming, it was decided to do a rigorous riderless w/o, and this one turned into one of our best.

Thurs. Nov. 11: WU + 6 x 2f riderless spurts near full speed. Full rests between. On a brisk day the horses were into it. Followed by 2 continuous miles, first one in :14s and :15s, and then we hit the point were they were tiring and slowed, and so the last mile I let them go at their own speed, probably :17s. They traveled overall at least 4 miles and a little more. The horse version today of the body builder's training to failure (i.e. you are unable to again lift the weight over your head due to muscle fatigue). The horse limitation is heat build up. Post w/o/post bath videos below. We call him Rollin' Rod for a reason. Rod is the larger horse, momma by Arch.

BC Classic Postscript

As usual with all the big races the BC Classic is put into eloquent perspective by Steve Haskins Blood Horse post this morning. Interesting that this is Claiborne's 100th anniversary. I know very little about Clairborne and the Hancocks except they seem very decent people, and I personally have now had two horse connected with the Hancocks. One was my best racing animal by Northern Baby that I purchased at Kee Sept. from Stone farm for $13,000.00. Arthur Hancock's mantra at the time was to the effect "we sell a good horse", and that one certainly was. A brilliant career to be as it turned out short circuited by a kick to the nose and a later crucial scratch by now KY State Vet Bryce Peckam. Ya--that same Dr. Peckam that let Life at Ten into the starting gate. I can testify by the experience with my horse that Dr. Peckam does this other than lightly.

I found it interesting Haskin's description of Clairborne's attempted "outcrossing". So important that somebody does, and is it surprising at all coming from the Hancocks? And then there is the stallion Arch with such a brilliant racing career and so overlooked for a modest fee. A little self congrats there as I recognized the possibilities on the spur of the moment in 2007 in front of my computer when I telephone bid on Rollin'Rodney, broodmare sire Arch. My 25 year in the sport intuitiveness recognized in the spur of a heated moment the possibilities, never mind that out of that same sale Dubai Majesty, winner of the filly and mare sprint RNA'd for $7000.00. Forgivable on my part since i had but $5000.00 to spend.

How good a horse was Blame? I thought his main talent was his ability to sustain rallies despite short training. The horse must have highly superior breathing. Additionally, and this is a little inside info, I find with my Arch that he tends to do exactly as asked without any protest at all. I can see that in the stretch even were Blame a little short on his training, he would keep going all out merely due to jockey request and that he was still getting good air due to his breathing ability, whereas many horses would cease paying attention to the jock once the lactic acid build up kicks in. Arch horses might thus have a little more proclivity to keep going. Also confide--my that is a sturdy legged line.

As to Z I can only visualize what might have occurred with a win. In 2009 one of my many reasons for projecting Z's defeat was that she would be unable to easily weave through traffic due to the giant Quality Road. That obstacle was removed at the starting gate. 2010, different story according to Haskin. The report is that Z had to momentarily back up due to the fading QR, although I fail to see that on the vid. Cost her the race, and so sad solace in this case for accurate predicting.

Training: after a rigorous 2 weeks Rod is getting 48 hrs. off. Recommence in the morning. Colder weather on the way.

Tues. Misc.--On the Farm

Last post, our would be Blame. From that angle a resemblance. From a different angle the voracious Rodney, 4 yr. old colt out of Arch momma, appears more a pregnant broodmare. As the BC vibrations for this year subside this blog will get back on track. The weather here has been suddenly dry. Six weeks now. After the constant monsoons I was a little slow to get into full training mode. We have been at it, and, if all else were ready would probably be about 45 days out from a race. As it is, one step at a time, see how it goes. We've been on a 36 hr. training cycle. This is working well. See a little extra energy with each w/o, and am more comfortable with high volume. Each w/o since last report has gone something like this:

15-20 min of tack work, walk-trot-gallop up and down the hill. Yest. morn. the gallops started to get faster. Followed by 3-4 miles continuous riderless gallop in fartlek style--i.e. with accelerations. Since the horse refuses now riderless to take off on his own at speed, we've taken to the strategy of driving him fast when he get's into it during this continuous gallop. Working fairly well, and both horses--conditioning-- back where they were end of August. If good weather holds, rapid progress!

"We Are Family"

Blame, at left. Posted before--we are ok with Arch colts winning big races. Uncle Mo below, broodmare sire, Arch.
Compared to our Arch in my pasture, observe that there is a family resemblance! I'd paid zero attention to Uncle Mo. When I watched the BC Juvenile with that huge rear end motoring down the track the fleeting thought was--looks familiar! Checked pedigree. Whoops. Arch.

Both BC horses are longer than ours and more athleticism. Rollin' Rodney (broodmare sire Arch) shares the strong leg structure and athletic powerful rear end.

Congrats. to Claiborne Farm and Ms. Dinschneider. Ironic. Blame it on Blame that legend of Z retires slightly tarnished.

Other BC thoughts:

1. Tremendous ride by Mike Smith. You'd have to be on a horse to understand how helpless you are when the horse refuses to run, as Z did after the start with sand obviously kicking her in the face. Happened again early backstretch when Smith was trying to rev. her up.

2. Great great race by Z and yet a little less than it looked visually. Though she was initially 18 lengths behind the front group, she was but 8-9 lengths behind the Blame group, and that's what she made up weaving through traffic.

3. The extra gear of speed Z needed in a championship race was absent. Training. Great job by Shirrefs except had noted--very little speed training. It's a speed game to win it all.

4. Blame---what of the training(?)--despite my historical disdain for methods such as Albert Stall--have noted what A. Stall has done/failed to do with many other horses-- Stall seems to have accomplished a decent training job with Blame. Note last post field PP analysis. Blame right there at the top in 3 month frequency of speed work, and near the top in the other categories.

5. Quality Road--bled, locked up his breathing due to lack of conditioning (likely), or was injured. To Plecher observers--expected.

6. Lookin' At Lucky--a decent instead of great horse, it seems. You expect a Baffert horse to be running, and he was.

7. Haynesfield--the thought of prior post--the weight would give him trouble, and the obviously tiring track and slow training since the JC Gold Cup hardly helped.

8. Espoir City--prominent and leading at the mile call!

9. First Dude--wish they'd give that horse to Baffert, or bring Nafzger out of retirement.

10. Fly Down--Zito training has increased in intensity--see PPs. Obvious response to competition.

11. Richard Dutrow--whoops--without a horse in the Classic. Why?

12. By my eyeball think I prefer BC raced on the synthetic to deep Churchill dirt.

13. Zenyatta: probably best ever.

2010 BC Classic

Late to the task again.. Did take a look at PPs for BC Classic, though way short of thorough handicapping job. Conclude, these horses are trained much the same except for two(Z and LLL).

Is there any conditioning advantage to any of these? Close look shows the differences are very subtle instead of a wide advantage for any one horse. Take a look:

Ranked by number of breeze/races since 8/1 (the crucial 3 months conditioning pre-race):

No. of Breeze/Races:

12 Blame

12 Haynesfield

11 Zenyatta

11 Quality Road

11 Paddy O'Prado

11 First Dude

10 Lookin at Lucky (missed time due to illness)

11 Fly Down

9 Pleasant Prince

7 Etched

6 Musket Man

We see right away, we may want to omit the hard knocking Musket Man from consideration. His trainer exceeds being the typical idiot, though I'd identified some conceptual problems with him a year ago. Etched is merely a pretender based on works.

Do speed furlongs traveled since 8/1 tell anything. Ranking:

69 Zenyatta (Hmm)

68 Haynesfield

65 Blame

64 Paddy O Praddo

62 Fly Down

61 Quality Road

58 First Dude

57 Lookin At Lucky

54 Pleasant Prince

41 Etched

39 Musket Mann

Best horses get the most work. What a surprise! We begin to see maybe there's some over enthusiasm concerning Lookin At Lucky.

What of the crucial 45 day training period pre-race since 9/15. Does this show anything?

Breeze-races since 9/15/No. of Speed Furlongs trained

7/39 Lookin At Lucky (ahh-Baffert again ratcheting up for a big race!)

6/39 Zenyatta

6/36 Haynesfield

6/34 First Dude

6/31 Fly Down

6/29 Quality Road

6/29 Blame

5/31 Paddy O Praddo

5/39 Pleasant Prince

4/24 Musket Man (opposite of Baffert)

3/17 Etched

One other thing--the quality and speed of the works matters. I looked at speed briefly. The obvious recent standout is Lookin at Lucky with Z a close second. The CA trainers understand it's a speed game. The east coast mid America trainers are into Wood Stephens lighter training.

Other factors I looked at: Lookin at Lucky hasn't faced much. He's being overrated.

Surface: Yup. Watching Blind Luck yesterday. If a horse in the lead goes on, they'll be hard to catch. Based on training, that's likely to be Haynesfield. BUT, H is carrying a lot of weight for what he does.

The big Q in 2009 was can Z run with the boys? Still the Q, imo. Z is a well trained, giant horse with big strides that will be somewhat compromised by the surface. Blame at the glance looks as if he'd give some competition but will carry the weight of his trainer. I think Blame and Quality Road will be up the track. Why? Overall lesser training that ignores competitive factors. Believe we'll see Haynesfield and Z close to the wire with LAL in close pursuit. Best guess: Z will get it done.

Dubai Majesty

Filly and Mare Sprint Winner, Dubai Majesty: Click on "Auction History"!:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/dubai-majesty/2005?source=BHonline

Awesome Feather

Winner of Juvenile Fillies, by:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=5357284&origin=horseProfile

Blame's Barn

After morning training started late, am just getting to computer. Will try to set aside time to handicap BC Classic later today. Q a year ago was: Can Z run with males? Possibly that's still the Q. Info somewhere--Blame's barn parallels the race track. Blames "trainer" puts Blame in position where, guaranteed, the noisy tractors will be pulling right by his stall all night tonight working on the race track, decibel level being roughly same as 3 18 wheelers pulling by you bed every 10 min. I am ok with an Arch winning the Classic. Think we can just about eliminate Blame from consideration. I'll be shocked if the horse does anything but fade in the stretch after this nonsense. This is horse people. Churchill why do you stall BC horses right by your race track where it is well known their rest will be disturbed? Albert Stall is rapidly achieving the same esteem I have for Nick Zito. More later.

Training:

Fri. 11/5: 20 minute walk-trot-gallop under tack. Short rest, then: riderless 4 miles continuous with fartlek--i.e. short bursts of speed. Surprisingly the horse was somewhat with the program on a very cool and brisk morning.

BCIV

BC Classic week! For the reason of looking at Plecher's seemingly sensical program focus on Quality Road, above in a Plecher bridle, as an older more heavily bodied horse launching considerable weight around the race track.

Is Plecher's program a sufficient conditioning job to allow this big horse to go all out 1.25 miles? A brief look tomorrow at the"no brainer" view of who will win the BC Classic!

For now Plecher's program in terms of fracture resistance (FR). Plecher gives 2-3 weeks off of speed work post race ostensibly to permit healing mini stress fractures before recommencing serious speed work, with the idea to keep the horse running. Logical exceptPlecher has one of the highest permanent injury rates going. What's the explanation?

The problem, it seems to me, with Plecher's training schematic is that, although the post race period off from speed work is logical in a general sense, when this is combined with Plecher'sbare minimum program (see last post--and the numbers will be expanded upon next week), many horses--especially in the early stages of training, see Dunkirk, are below the minimum level of volume and frequency needed for FR.

What about QR. Is he likely another Plecher victim?

Looking at QR's specific program, if you grade it in terms of FR--my guess--QR passes. Another look:

11 July: 5f 1:00

18 July 5f 58.3

26 July 5f 58.4 (after exceptional work, they wait 8 days.)

1 August 5f 1:00 Only 5 days. Un Plecher like. Due to race coming.

7 August: Whitney 1 1/8 mile. All this gets them a second to Blame.

22 August: 4f: 51.4 over slop: 15 days later! Note that this speed is insufficient for

FR by my calculation.

29 August: 5f 1:00

4 Sept. Woodward 1 1/8 miles: twice in a row Plecher breezes the horse 5 days out from the race! A win!

25 Sept. 4f: 49.2 This time they wait 3 weeks.

3 Oct. 5f: 1.01.1

10 Oct. 5f 1.01

17 Oct. 6f 1:13.2 Nice work by the jock. Without a doubt Plecher instructed slightly slower that :12s, and that is what they got!

24 Oct. 1.01.2 BC getting close. Do they rachet things up as they did for the Whitney. Negative.

They're breezing slower now!

31 Oct. 4f: 48.3

We need look at QR's entire program. And we recall that QR was in Jerken's more strenuous program before hitting Plecher's barn. My guess, there were fairly sound legs there beforePlecher ever got he horse. Once FR is achieved it is harder to lose, and Plecher's bare minimums might well have 1. maintained what was there, and 2. added to it over time provided Plecher was meeting bare minimums with the horse.

The recent works above indicates that this may be exactly what has occurred with QR. The nice series of works between July 11 and the Whitney--unusual for Plecher in terms of frequency and speed--were probably enormously beneficial to the legs of QR. Thereafter, there was a fairly decent FR maintenance program. My guess-and will avoid the exercise--if everything were calculated--i.e. QR's whole program from the beginning of the year--QR would be one of those horses just barely on the good side of the minimums for FR. Thus, probably, it would be unnecessary to worry about a serious fracture for QR at this point. I say "probably" because will decline here to do the actual calculations. There is some concern because, again, this trainer even with this horse, is riding on bare minimums for FR.

Tomorrow: Who will win the Classic.

Training: Rod, the last few sessions has basically checked himself out of the program. Riderless he refuses to start, and when we finally get him going he pulls himself up unless I am right there beside him hurling clods. You always fear this with a lazy horse. We're trying to figure out ways to get him motivated again. Luckily he enjoys tack work. Last evening we needed a fast work, and decided to try one furlong bursts with rest periods. The idea was to get the horse competitive. Though Rod now refuses to run with his older companion, late in the speed work sequence last night he did get into it a little.

Tues. 11/2: Rod shoeing takes longer than expected. We wind up trotting for 10 min. in the dark.

Wed. 11/3: riderless--9 x 1f as fast as we could make him go, see above. Some small part of this was full speed. Due to 7:00 p.m. meeting insufficient time for tack work this night.

BC IIII

Quality Road as a foal looking like any other, sort of of! He's got legs!

We look at Plecher's pre-BC training for QR, last post, with the question has fracture resistance (FR) been achieved for the horse, and, if so, how does this square with Plecher's high injury rate? An explanation follows to be more carefully honed after the BC!

The first thing we recognize is that like chief competitor Zenyatta, QR has been at it a long time. First with questionably competent Jimmie Jerkens who managed to win over none other than Plecher and Dunkirk in the 2009 Florida Derby. And thereafter the horse was put into the Plecher barn with it's highly consistent program.

For 2010 QR first raced 1/3/10 at Gulfstream, and has been at it ever since. We'd hardly begrude this horse 2-3 weeks off after certain of his races, and, other than Plecher periods off from speed work, it looks as if the horse has been in training the whole year.

As previously noted, Plecher training qualifies for FR on the following parameters:

distance of the breeze--it is always at least 4f or more

speed of breeze--is it always at least 12.5 sec/f

frequency--it is always more frequent than 8 days apart.

The catch with the "frequency" aspect is those 2-3 weeks off from speed work. Frequency over time needs to be calculated in terms of averages. The Plecher "off periods" increase his average frequency between speed work, and hence, possibly, Plecher's injury rate problem.

Next, take note that though Plecher training satisfies each FR parameters, it does so barely. Dunkirk was a particular victim of this previously identified on the blog.

QR, unlike Dunkirk, has lasted well over a year, been on the program almost two years, and was in the more strenuous program of Jimmie Jerkens before that. I've speculated if, thus, we manage to keep the horse healthy and "in training" over 12 months, we may indeed achieve FR even though the training is on the bare edge of minimums for FR. A closer look at QR in this sense, next post.

QR initially was trained by Jimmie Jerkens, and a review of the problems with QR under JJ appears here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2009/04/narrowing-derby.html

Training:

Tues. 10/2: Rod shoeing takes longer than expected. We wind up trotting for 10 min. in the dark.

BC II

What of Quality Road, and Todd Plecher training? Take a look at the PPs.

11 July: 5f 1:00

18 July 5f 58.3

26 July 5f 58.4 (after exceptional work, they wait 8 days.)

1 August 5f 1:00 Only 5 days. Un Plecher like. Due to race coming.

7 August: Whitney 1 1/8 mile. All this gets them a second to Blame.

22 August: 4f: 51.4 over slop: 15 days later! Note that this speed is insufficient for

FR by my calculation.

29 August: 5f 1:00

4 Sept. Woodward 1 1/8 miles: twice in a row Plecher breezes the horse 5 days out from the race! A win!

25 Sept. 4f: 49.2 This time they wait 3 weeks.

3 Oct. 5f: 1.01.1

10 Oct. 5f 1.01

17 Oct. 6f 1:13.2 Nice work by the jock. Without a doubt Plecher instructed slightly slower that :12s, and that is what they got!

24 Oct. 1.01.2 BC getting close. Do they rachet things up as they did for the Whitney. Negative.

They're breezing slower now!

31 Oct. 4f: 48.3 This one is mind boggling. They have the horse set up for a fairly nice pre-BC work, and they decline. 4f in 48 would do hardly anything in terms of conditioning for a huge long striding horse.

Interestingly, before the Whitney they were letting the horse run in his breezes. They got beat by Blame and, apparently, decided the fast works were failing to cut it. Plecher thereafter reverts to his normal routine. QR has been trained per the usual Plecher the whole year: 1.01 breezes 7 days apart with 2-3 week gaps in speed work after races. Does this qualify for the minimum frequency in terms of FR would be the question. As to performance, will approach this with open mind as blog gets to performance. Doubtful to me this schedule does the horse any favors. Will need to compare QR schedule with rest of field and make predictions later in the week.

Training:

11/1: 4 miles continuous in 16s and 15s with several very short full speed bursts.

11/2: will go this evening 36 hours later.

Breeders Cup Week!

Time to focus on the Cup! And this will fit right in with what I am trying to do in summarizing what we know about frequency of speed work as it relate to race appropriate fracture resistance (FR).

The guinea pig this week will be Todd Plecher of whom I'd noted last post the contradiction in his training style between giving three weeks off from speed work post race to give unseen mini fractures time to heal and Plecher's high injury rate. As to the latter immediately coming to mind are both Dunkirk and Rags to Riches both of whom crossed the finish lines in their last races with serious fractures that luckily held together averting yet another catastrophe for the sport.

And so, this week, pay particular attention to Quality Road. And, given the 4f work for QR yesterday for a 1.25 mile BC Classic race can we also look at what Plecher does in terms of performance. My instinct is to wonder what a trainer might possibly be thinking to breeze 4f instead of say 7f or a mile wanting to get a performance in the BC Classic 6 days later. Let us reserve judgment and see how QR does. My initial guess would be: other then well.

That is performance, however. Will also closely watch the injury situation. Plecher 4 weeks ago said he would train QR for distance. Plecher's conception of training "for distance" differs markedly from my own. Again, reserve judgement. This will be a good test of the theory that what Plecher does is ridiculous.

Training: have been playing around with working every 36 hours to give a little additional rest. Thinking this would permit longer, more strenuous w/os, and horses might be more energetic work to work. Results so far, if I discount my suddenly extremely lazy horse, have been good.

Thurs. 10/28: 3.5 miles continuous in :14s and 15s with several short full speed bursts. Count this as speed work.

Fri. 10/29: Off

Sat: 10/30: 4 miles slow galloping riderless + 3 time walk trot up and down the hill.

Sun: 10:31 Off.

Mon. 11/1: Arrive and there's pink on a hoof. Oh Oh. Eye goes up the leg and Rod has a chunk of flesh size of a silver dollar missing just above his right knee. Good news is its superficial and mostly the skin peeled back. Almost zero injury into the muscle. Decide to go riderless and skip tack work to avoid excess pressure at the injury site: 4 miles continuous with several short full speed bursts. The work was fast and slow as Rod now pulls himself up unless force to gallop. This requires yours truly sprinting back and forth across the paddock. Need to get back in shape for that.