Post Breeze/Race Remodeling VIII: A Review

Officially back on subject. How can we make this more grave? Injury prevention, nuts and bolts. Derby and Preakness distractions over, we're back on here with the real stuff as we continue to consider Priority #1 for performance: keeping our horse running. Can we use Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird as examples!

To this effect I had postulated a model involving bone soundness and fracture resistance, and how we achieve those important goals. And, yes, we will be avoiding any lecture on the subject from Larry Jones. Sorry to pick on this soon to be retired trainer, but is that a case study in what to avoid when training horses? And, just as interesting, what does it say about the current state of pre-race diagnostics when they discover 2 fractures in Friesan Fire after the race.

The last post on this was 4/24 or so. To review, I'd concluded that to achieve race appropriate fracture resistance(FR) there needs to be minimum breezing/racing work for a distance of 4f at a speed of :12.5/f. Going slower or less distance may fail to get what we need.

The next question involves the minimum frequency necessary at said appropriate speed and distances to get and keep FR. I'd begun to look at this at the cellular level speculating precisely what occurs during and after the breeze. Technical stuff, as I read back, but some interesting points for anyone wanting to slug through it.

Were was I, exactly?

I'm going to run out of time here, and will be out of town for the weekend, so this will continue on Monday. We're training our two at the farm. Rain this week, but we've had a decent May to springboard into June. I'll review that next week and hope soon to have on video of one of our track gallops.

Farm News

The photo at left taken sometime in early May exemplifies our training situation. Left click to see the city.

There's been a constant dome of wet weather over KC extending all the way back to March 1 where system after system came through here, seemingly each one worse than the last for our training.

Over the last two weeks of April we had about a foot of rain at the farm. In early May at one point we had some rain 7 out of 8 straight days.

On the blog I simply got tired of posting our constant weather related attempts to catch up or keep up with our training. There's plenty of posts on that, and after 2.5 years of this stuff it started to get silly to make the same weather dodging training posts day after day.

In April in addition to the weather we had, unbelievably, hoof sole problems with both horses.
Rodney's shows at left with spray bandage over the exposed laminae. We just needed two days of dry to get it to kerantinze. Never happened, and we dealt with this for a month.

But, with happy local frogs and lush vegetation, it's now the month of May. Since May 3 we've been able to get out there on a consistent basis, and May 15 we actually got our track back(due to mud) for the first time since mid February.

How are the horses doing? In mid-April I posted they were going backwards due to weather, and through the end of April from there it was so wet we were unable to do anything at all.

Thus, in terms of race preparation, as of May 3 when we were able to start again, the horses are nowwhere. We will be in catch up work through the middle of June, and then, hopefully, be ready for a race prep. But, we have a nice track now with a soft carpet of grass, and the horses have been training. Photos below from 5/22, and a report for posterity on each horse:

The above is our three year old, Rollin' Rodney. He's nearly 16'1" now, and although Nob has been giving rave gallop reviews, this horse has some problems that make him a problematic race horse at best. Rodney has an odd breathing problem that causes him a lot of trouble at the trot and slow gallop. The good part is that once he gets going, he seems to have superior air intake. But, Rod has trouble breathing at the trot. He has to elevate his head, and in the first 5 or 6 strides taking off into the gallop, often he's unable to breathe at all. His problem seems to be that he is a "heaver" in that he has problems with breathing "out". We've yet to do enough galloping with him to see how this will work out, and Rod is making some adjustments to his problem as he goes. This all explains what we had at one time perceived as laziness. I've yet to see any horse with the slightest air problem as a competitive runner. They protect themselves and other than jousting with their buddies really are without the natural desire to run that most horses have. Since Rod seems to be able to breathe normally at the fast gallop we'll continue to work with him. He luckily likes tack work. Nob says the early gallops show an effortless powerful weight carrier who seems to have a little speed.

Amart, age 4, is pictured on 5/22 below:
Art some how has shrunk from 15' 3.25" back down to 15' 3". Big difference in scope. He's a little fellow with some speed and athleticism and superior breathing that should make him competitive at some level. Art likes to run, and so is a pleasure to train. Below is a photo that shows part of our track cut out of our pasture with the tractor in the middle, out of gas.

Thurs. Misc.

Trouble finding time for the computer this week, and so a more brief Preakness wrap up than planned. The mystery of Rachel's performance for me was the faster, extended stride carried all the way around the race track without injury. Reasons? Hopefully explained in detail when I get to performance. Let's for now be assured there are reasons. Talent alone will fail to explain a cruising speed that could have been maintained by any colt in the field had they only been trained. Bill Pressey has already beat me to the punch on the Borel factor:

http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com/2009/05/genius-of-calvin-borel.html

If there were other performance variables for Rachel besides the Borel factor, can we say the jock's contribution hardly hurt the performance. Mike Smith and Borel reversed on their horses might make an interesting race. Of late, Borel seems to be riding to win.

I still have mixed feeling's about Rachel's presence in the race, and would avoid being overalarmist regarding entry of fillies in major televised races. Yet, if they're going to enter fillies, I do believe that racing needs to get a grip on these owner/trainers and avoid letting somebody enter a horse for the reasons given in this instance. For the temporary positive jolt of Rachel's victory, horse racing assumed a tremendous risk at the whim a fellow who made his money selling alcohol, won a steroid tainted horse of the year title, as it now comes out, has a trainer fighting his lastest prevocaine violation, and "he" thinks this is good for racing. Query whether the Jess Jackson's of the world need to be making these types of enormously important decisions.

Mon. Misc. Hos Epi To Polu

PREAKNESS:

Rachel Alexandra is certainly a nice horse. And yet, on this blog, RA was a pre-race throw out:

"...(s)he also has the weakest contender training Oaks to Preakness, basically runs :12s, has already undergone one operation, and has numerous obvious disadvantages going into the race. Borel will drive her, beyond her capability based on training imo. Out."

And so, the logic and observation by which this blob(blog) arrives at first principles requires some examination, at least with respect to Rachel Alexandra. What was going on here where a filly that "runs :12s" suddenly was running :11.8s on a "deep, heavy surface"?

There was a (mis)interpretation of RA PPs. I posted the horse appears capable of laying it down but has never been trained or raced to do so. The following video shows the error of this conclusion:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=36372

Rachel next meets the Pocahontas winner, the speedy Malibu Moon filly Sara Louise in the Goldenrod on 11/29/08, showing again the rough same fractions established in the Preakness, and also the Calvin Borel strategy in its development. Borel establishes a faster than the field cruising speed that cooks them by the quarter pole:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=36679

And, hence the RR error. By the time Rachel had reached age three and in the Fantasy at Oaklawn and in the Oaks, Rachel was so good it was unnecessary for her and Borel to "lay it down", "drive" "extend", however you refer, as she was achieving roughly the same fractions with a more upright bounding style. Instead of that she "was unable" due to training, the driving stride shown in the 2 year old races simply was unnecessary.

I was indeed aware that the above was a possibility given the fast fractions of the Pocahontas (which I'd discounted), but I conjectured that it had been so many months since those races that Rachel would be unable to instantaneously summon that same driving stride for any appreciable distance. I was incorrect in this, and will provide more explanation next post.

I'd also figured the colts in this race as capable of much faster than what showed in the race, and calculated that Rachel would wither in the face of a colt onslaught that never materialized at any point in the race. For this group of decently trained colts, none of them had the ability to quicken with Rachel past the quarter pole per the photo. What happened?

I notice three things:

1. The Borel ride from the get go that immediately got his filly into the race and competitive. You see this in Rachel's demeanor on the back stretch. She was racing, all the colts merely running. Personally I was shocked that none of the trainers chose to press this filly. I'm sort of gathering that Baffert did but the Pioneer failed to respond. Something happened injury wise to that horse.

2. The fractions, though just fast instead of suicidal, were at a cruising speed that took the colts out of their game. Rachel had been trained to do this by Borel, and it worked to a charm. The colts, most of them were done at the quarter pole. See Big Brown's Florida Derby to see the same phenomena. Credit the horse with the speed, but really its hardly all that overly fast. This is, again, Borel and what "racing" instead of running a horse along the backstretch at a steady speed will get you.

3. The unknown but important factor may have been the track surface. Another relevant RR excerpt:

"Rachel has ability and a weight advantage that becomes geometric on a heavy track."

The colts both intrinsically weigh more and also carried more lead, a combo that on the particular surface took its toll.

4. There's also logical explanation(and nice call) here for some of them:

http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com/2009/05/preakness-picks-based-on-synthetic-to.html

And so, congrats to all that picked the filly. The blog will be satisfied for its dismal handicapping with the hedge provided by Aristotle for ferreting out universal truths, given their difficulties and our limited abilities. We got it right Hos Epi To Polu "for the most part". More on Rachel Alexandra and the race, next post.

Handicapping The Preakness

RR pick! (dry track)









Handicapping, with quibbles.

1. Lukas horses out. Flying Private has talent.

2. Expect Musket Man and Take the points to stop and take a nap at the quarter pole. The Saturday (middle of the night) shippers. Out. I've seen some dumb stunts at Eureka. This ranks right up there.

3. Big Drama beat West Side Bernie by a length. Need more be said. Out.

4. Lesser training, lesser talents are out. Terrain, Tone It Down, General Quarters (though sensing an effort here.)

5. Five left standing: Rachel,Pioneer, FF, Papa, MTB.

6. Friesan Fire: The Derby was a nice prep, but objective/comparative view of his videos show a lesser talent. Out.

7. For the rest: compare speed fractions(the horse's probable best effort at each call). Rachel e.g. has run a 1:35.1 mile but failed to win that race. Her probable best effort is a 1:36:3 by this definition.). Rachel's bests show as 23.2,47.2, 1:11.4, 1:36.3.

9. FF shows best at 23.1. MTB shows best at 45.4. MTB shows best at 1:10.1. Papa C shows 1:36. Rachel at 1:36.3. Pioneer and MTB show 1:36.3 bests. FF worst at 1:37.3

10. Rachel has ability and a weight advantage that becomes geometric on a heavy track. She also has the weakest contender training Oaks to Preakness, basically runs :12s, has already undergone one operation, and has numerous obvious disadvantages going into the race. Borel will drive her, beyond her capability based on training imo. Out.

13. MTB Preakness training puts most of the others too shame. But they crossed the line. Too much. Out.

14. The real second place finisher (but for the Pioneer bump/cutoff) of the Derby and deepest trained horse is Papa Clem. The videos show that Stute has trained the horse from an early lesser talent to a horse that will run wire to wire with max effort. Tough call if it in fact comes down to Clem and Pioneer. Photo above is talking.

More Preakness

RR streak of never being ill came to an end. I spent the last couple of days staring at a wall as the only thing I was capable of. To keep up the blog, a few thoughts after reading Preakness articles and seeing the videos:

1. Friesan Fire: Watching him gallop, does he seem a little short on ability compared to some others?

2. Papa Clem: Right in there.

3. General Quarters: Grossly undertrained. Talented though!

4. Flying Private: The quote was to the effect: an unusual Lukas breeze between Derby and Preakness. Lukas responding to competition, perhaps. Fluid moving, graceful striding colt. Unless he has a breathing problem, would he at some point show something?

5. Luv Gov: 10 races, a pre-Preakness breeze. Ok, developmentally.

6. Musket Man: Would they make a bush league trailer trip from Monmouth to Pimilico at 2:30 a.m. Saturday morning (night) if they intended to win this race? Sleep. Throw him out. Too bad. My other thought: surely the time posted for that trip was a misprint.

7. Mine That Bird: So now Woolley claims holding MTB back in the Derby was his idea. It's possible. Watching the MTB races he has that quick spurt, but has trouble matching strides with larger horses. Seems then the available spurt needs to be well timed. Can Mike Smith accomplish the task? BUT, if Woolley does another 2 mile gallop under 175 lbs Friday morning its academic. Will fail to recover. Same mistake as Nafzger 2 years ago. Should sanity prevail and they do something race appropriate the day before, MTB (very) competitive?

8. Pioneer Of The Nile: Visually looks less tight than might be expected. Nagging, minor concern.

9. Rachel: predict she'll be outkicked in the stretch. Caveat: same as the RR 8 Belles prediction. 8 Belles to me had more talent than this horse. Watching Rachel gallop she has that nice classic flowing ground flicking stride. I had one like that once. They bounce across the track. But, this all changes in the drive as a different stride is required there. Since this filly has never been trained to "drive" you'd question whether she'd be able against this sort.

10. Big Drama: like FF, a little short of these.

11. The rest: there's one in their by an obvious training idiot(edit: who I just saw on video as a heck of a nice fellow. wish them the best, but calls 'em as we sees 'em.). Stall's horse looks (way) short of having done enough.

Preakness?

One year after 8 Belles, history repeats. But, that's just me. I know a lot of people are excited about the race. I'd be unsurprised if Jess Jackson declines to enter. There's nothing for them to gain and everything to lose. Rachel Alexandra will run about a 1:38 mile, whereever that puts her. She'll look a lot smaller against those colts. I like my crow warm, but will expect to be saving it for another day.

My Preakness pick? First, I am encouraged by the training these horses have received. The low of Preakness training came a few years back with Brother Derek who galloped exactly twice between the Derby and Preakness. This year's bunch of trainers seem more to understand that exercise makes horses stronger instead of weaker . Friesan Fire and his 58 and change? Since he never ran a lick in the Derby probably due to eating mud the whole route, that's fine, and I'd be surprised if FF was anything but tough on Preakness Day. There are 4 or 5 very good horses in here any of which might win. As such, will it be a rider's race? I like to give the nod to Baffert as the best trainer in this crew. I may yet have to take back what I posted about Bennie Woolley Jr. Seems to have done a super job.

Briefly tomorrow, what the RR stable has been up to with photos, and then on this blog its back to injury prevention.

Derby Results And Recent Speed Events

Does speed work close to the event affect performance? It would seem so, but is there evidence?

This post contains the small sample of the last two Derbies. Unfortunately my charting was inconsistent year to year. For the 2008 Derby the only thing charted was "number" of speed events 45 days out. For the 2009 Derby I wanted to chart for the 30 days pre-derby (on the theory that the last 30 days training is crucial) but charted 35 days since much of the field breezed or raced on 3/28/09.

You will notice that the training for these time periods horse to horse is quite similar in terms of what these simple stats show. Yet, these charts, and also the year to date chart last post do show some general correlations:

1. Working your horse may or may not succeed, although the horses that worked the most were all competitive.
2. (The anomalies of Big Brown and Eight Belles aside) The horses that worked the least were guaranteed to finish up the track.

Both BB and 8 Belles' essentially made up what they missed earlier as their work was crammed primarily into the last 5 weeks pre derby as the charts below show.

Results ranked highest number of works to least:

C=Competitive in the race
NC=Non-competitive in the race.

2008 Derby

Number of speed events (breezes/races) in the 45 days pre-Derby:

C 8 Colonel John
C 7 Big Brown
C 7 Bob Black Jack
C 7 Pyro
C 6 Eight Belles
C 6 Dennis Of Cork
C 6 Tale of Ekati
C 6 Anak Nakal
C 6 Recapture The Glory
NC 6 Smooth Air
NC 6 Court Vision
NC 6 Cool Coal Man
NC 6 Adriano
NC 6 Momba
NC 6 Z Humor
NC 6 Z Fortune
C 5 Cowboy Cal
NC 5 Gayego

2009 Derby

Number--horse--furlongs

C 5 Papa Clem 33
C 5 Chocolate Candy 31
C 5 Pioneer Of The Nile 27
NC5Flying Private 27
NC 5 Mr. Hot Stuff 25
NC 4 Mr. Advice 26
C 4 Musket Man 25
NC 4 Desert Party 23
C 4 Regal Ransom 23
NC 4 Friesan Fire 23
NC 4 Dunkirk 23
NC 4 General Quarters
C 4 Join In The Dance 23
C 3 Mine That Bird 22 (counts 3f of gallop out with last Borel work.)
C 3 Summer Bird 20
NC 3 Hold Me Back 19
NC 3 Atomic Rain 17
NC 2 Nowhere To Hide
NC 2 West Side Bernie

Derby Training And Results 2008-2009

For the 2008 and 2009 Derby fields I had made up charts as follows:

number of speed events (breezes/races) for the year
number of speed furlongs for the year.

I had also charted recent speed events in the last 45 days pre-derby for 2008 and the last 35 days for 2009. The summaries of year to date charts appear below ranked most to least.

Also listed, was the horse:

C = Competitive
NC = Non-Competitive

2009 Derby (speed events/furlongs for the year):

C 17/107 Chocolate Candy
C 17/103 Papa Clem
NC 17/98 Flying Private
NC 16/97 Mr. Hot Stuff
C 16/88 Pioneer Of The Nile
NC 14/82 Dunkirk
C 14/75 Join In The Dance
C 13/75 Mine That Bird
C 13/75 Musket Man
NC 13/71 Advice
C unknown Regal Ransom
NC unknown Desert Party
NC 12/64 Nowhere To Hide
NC 11/61 Hold Me Back
NC 11/68 Friesan Fire
NC 11/63 Atomic Rain
NC 10/62 General Quarters
C 10/60 Summer Bird
NC 9/55 West Side Bernie

For 2009, high correlation with year to date work/results. A little less so for 2008 as several of the "Cs" appear at the bottom of the list:

C 18/96 Pyro
C 18/81 Tale Of Ekati
C 17/88 Colonel John
C 17/88 Bob Black Jack
NC 17/90 Z Fortune
C 16/80 Anak Nakal
NC 16/94 Big Truck
NC 16/101 Smooth Air
C 14/79 Dennis Of Cork
NC 14/64 Cool Coal Man
NC 14/60 Court Vision
NC 14/60 Adriano
NC ?/74 Visionaire
NC 13/74 Gayego
NC 13/63 Momba
C 13/57 Cowboy Cal
NC 13/? Z Humor
C 12/71 Recapturetheglory
C 11/56 Big Brown
C 9/52 Eight Belles


2008 and 2009 combined:

C 18/96 Pyro. (barely competitive. He did make a run.)
C 18/81 Tale of Ekati
C 17/107 Chocolate Candy
C 17/103 Papa Clem
NC 17/98 Flying Private
C 17/88 Colonel John
C 17/88 Bob Black Jack
NC 17/90 Z Fortune
NC 16/97 Mr. Hot Stuff
C 16/88 Pioneer Of The Nile
C 16/80 Anak Nakal
NC 16/94 Big Truck.
NC 16/101 Smooth Air.
NC 14/82 Dunkirk
C 14/79 Dennis Of Cork
C 14/75 Join In The Dance
NC 14/64 Cool Coal Man
NC 14/60 Court Vision
NC 14/60 Adriano
C 13/75 Mine That Bird
C 13/75 Musket Man
NC ?/74 Visionaire
NC 13/74 Gayego
NC 13/71 Advice
NC 13/63 Momba
C 13/57 Cowboy Cal
C unknown estimated Regal Ransom
NC unknown estimated Desert Party
NC 13/? Z Humor
C 12/71 Recapture The Glory
NC 12/64 Nowhere To Hide
NC 11/61 Hold Me Back
C 11/56 Big Brown
NC 11/68 Friesan Fire
NC 11/63 Atomic Rain
NC 10/62 General Quarters
C 10/60 Summer Bird
NC 9/55 West Side Bernie
C 9/52 Eight Belles

More MTB

The Mine That Bird story certainly is interesting in its various details. In full speculative mode, consider, e.g. the significance of one of the owners being a respected veterinarian. I was mulling this remembering a conversation that took place in the Prairie Meadows kitchen circa 1990:

RR: (brand new owner in search of the worst looking trainer on the grounds, and, spotting him): "Excuse me, are you a trainer."

GT: Yes Sirrrrr... I'm Griz Trittle

RR: I've got some horses for you to train.

GT (in shock): Weeelll...sure, whatcha got.

RR: Got three of 'em. Do you have stalls.

GT: (sensing a wet behind the ears owner): I've got a full shedrow(of quarter horses), but, whatcha got.

RR: Got three of 'em. You'd like 'em.

GT: What are they.

RR: TBs. I'll pay you $xxxx.00 per month if you'll train 'em.

GT: (eyes visibly bulging): Weellll....maybe a couple of mine could move off track?

RR: One more thing Mr. Trittle. I'll pay you that amount of $$$ on a condition.

GT: Condition?

RR: I have my own groom who'll take care of 'em, and you promise never to touch 'em except to saddle...

Omit the rest. Griz Trittle accepted the"offer" and RR stable with stealth employee-groom in business at PM.

The relevance to MTB? What are the odds that this vet, or any vet, places his $400,000 Canadian Champion two year old with a quarter horse trainer with a record of 1-32 for the year in typical hands off fashion with the trainer calling the shots? In contrast, might there be a variation of the RR-Griz Trittle model as outlined above, where Vet finds down on his luck quarter horser willing to follow instructions for $$$? Vet directs care and training and (important) diagnostics to extent of inserting in the shed row his own fresh off the ranch of partner Mark Allen rider/groom in the person of Charlie Figueroa.

Whatever the real situation, encouraging that they had MTB on the track Tuesday. Rushing things, maybe, particularly the post Derby Sunday trot. But, early signs, they're continuing on with training possible with diagnostics and directions coming from the owners. Speculation, of course. We'll see how it develops.

A comparison of Derby training--2007 to 2009, next post.

Mine That Bird Training

"MINE THAT BIRD--Mine That Bird, the 2008 Canadian champion 2-year-old, galloped two miles Thursday around 7:30 a.m. and gave New Mexcico based trainer Chip Woolley reason for optimism, despit a 50-1 morning-line assignment at Wednesday's post position draw.

"He went super and really got over the ground well today," Woolley said."

The above courtesy of the Downey Profile Thursday 4/30 Derby notes. And then the Derby videos, the prior race videos, today's (as usual) superb Haskin column filling in the blanks, we find out that Chip Woolley himself was the rider of this horse, and that after the accident some fellow named Charlie Figueroa rode the horse.

Well(!) it starts to come together. Some thoughts to chew over:

1. Note Woolley's 2-33 record for the year for wins. This is other than an accomplished trainer. I'll go so far as to say that I've seen the likes of Woolley at track after track and in general this is the sort of crew you'll see complaints about on this blog. One look at Woolley tells me that most of the horses in his shed row are probably in trouble, and that his record fairly accurately reflects his ability.

2. Enter Charlie Figueroa "top rate exercise rider" according to Steven Haskin. Here is the second thing I know about this ilk of the training establishment exemplified by the probable situation of Chip Woolley: Every morning they throw the rider up on whatever horse they happen to be galloping this morning, generally 20% of their shed row, and the instructions will be something to the order "just gallop him", or "gallop him and let him go down the lane a little". Intellectual stuff like that. Horse and rider head to the track, and trainer gets back to mucking stalls.

3. Figueroa, probably after the first gallop or two on Mine That Bird starts to figure out he's on the best horse he's ever been on, somebody tells him its the Candadian two year old champ, and suddenly the situation gets Figueroa's attention. Maybe he has some personal pride in his work, maybe it's just for the thought of a bonus out of a big New Mexico purse, whatever, Figueroa commences to really work Mine That Bird. As in most of these sorts of shedrows the exercise rider is the trainer in fact.

How do I know this is what occurred with MTB? I don't. But I know the probabilities, and my guess would be that Chip Woolley initially had zero idea the horse was being taken two miles every day, or the clip of the gallops. If Woolley did, and if Woolley planned it, hats off since it would be totally our of character for a trainer that dresses, talks, and acts, and has a training record, like Chip Woolley. And further, blog apologies to Woolley if this is off base. I feel pretty safe though.

So, enter Figueroa. Watch the clip and you'll see some nice work:


Looking at the clip you start to see what was going on in New Mexico. Heavier, balanced rider and a little horse that can handle it, obviously has been handling it, and is very strong as a result.

So, what caused the Derby win? Here is Mine That Bird's probable protocol indicated by info we do have, mostly from Downey:

120 days (in the year to the Derby) divided by 13 speed events (breezes/races) is one every 9 days or about 3 per month. The last pre-race breeze tends to be 4 or 5 days out which is particularly big since it was a mile Calvin Borel type breeze. The next breeze post race 10 days after the first 2009 race but 21 days after the second.

There were only 2 races for 2009. One of those, The Sunland Derby was a heck of a race won by highly impressive performance by Kelly Leak were Bird faded in the stretch.

Every evidence is that MTB galloped almost daily. The distance is recorded in the Downey notes as 1/4 mile trot/1 3/4 mile gallop.. Haskin's got one thing wrong. MTB instead of just jogging at Lone Star galloped 2 miles according to a Woolley interview. The video shows these gallops to be productive heavy exercise rider conditioning gallops.

So, for MTB, and for posterity, it looks like:

G = 2 miles total volume
B= Breeze
W= Walk

R(3/28 Sunland Derby finshes 4th in Sunland Derby by 3 lengths to impressive Kelly Leak) W W W G G G W G G G W G G G G W G G G G G B(4/19 1:01) W T(4/21 travel) G (4/22 Lone Star), Arrive (4/23 at Churchill) G(4/24) G G B(4/27 1 mile 1:40) W G G G R(5/2).

Probably something like that is what won the KY Derby.

What next for MTB? You start to worry that Chip Woolley will now take over and start "not" training the horse. We'll see. I may have to take it all back. I hope so.

Sunland Derby appears below. Post on RR stable coming.

An Overlooked Training Job?

Had anybody spent the time, they easily could have ferreted out Mine That Bird. There's always the danger of becoming the idiot that spends way too much time on horse racing, which is where I was last week in taking a close look at the training, intending to take an equally close look at the intangibles, but stopping there with my Renee' Descartes post, and declining to review the videos, and consider the multiple factors that would affect the race.

But, it is all there for the asking, for anyone that did bother to check.

First, as Andy Beyer notes in his column, those New Mexico races are much more impressive than the PPs show. Mine That Bird suffered bad rides and competed gamely to the end. I suspect they also show a fast talented horse.

Then there is an intangible I occasionally look at very closely. Does anyone transport a horse 1500 miles without knowing something? They came all the way from Dubai to win. Do we think this crew came in for any reason other than to win?

But, it goes deeper, and it was there for all to see. Instead of being one of those insufferable quarter horse trainers/horse abusers, Bennie Woolley Jr., a fellow grouch, understands a thing or two about training a horse. This was a guy who detoured to Lone Star, spent the night and galloped his horse two miles. Shows some understanding and intent.

But, there's more, again for all to see. How many horses in this field did two miles/day on their slow gallop days? Jeff Mullins did a little of that. the other was Bennie Woolley Jr.(This shows in the Downey Profile Derby notes.) And, MTB, as the videos show, instead of just loping, which you see for most of them, carries a stout rider in those "slow" gallops at a pretty good clip.

The April 29 post here shows Mine That Bird to be in the middle of this field in terms of speed work for the year, and a little below average for recent speed work. If, however, you add the productive slow gallop work, you gain the understanding this trainer was the only trainer conducting race appropriate work with his horse. Add Calvin Borel to this mix, and the final mile breeze (how many of them breezed a mile as their final breeze?), and the focus sharpens up considerably.

There's MTB. How did the rest of them do relative to their training? See chart below for year to date and recent speed work volumes per the April 29 post. The missing #4 horse on both charts is I Want Revenge.

Please note that the last 4 or 5 horses were not persevered with. When you consider this, you will see for the remainder a fairly close correlation with training volume.

Horse--Rank (for #of works/speed events for the year)--comment

Mine That Bird 11th--possibly 1st if under the radar work factored in!
Pioneer Of The Nile 6th--Baffert said he trained soft. It showed.
Musket Man 9th --good trainer, good horse, good finish.
Papa Clem 2nd--oh had the last breeze been done a day earlier!
Chocolate Candy 1st why would they start far back with best trained horse?
Summer Bird 17th --One of those Birds.
Join In The Dance 8th
Regal Ransom unknown--will Sheik return? Different trainer, perhaps?
West Side Bernie 18th--game effort given his training.
General Quarters 16th--thankfully survived.
Dunkirk 7th--big horse had an excuse with the track.
Hold Me Back 15th typical Mott.
Advice 10th--a surprise to me.
Desert Party unknown
Mr. Hot Stuff 5th--refused to run, lol. Got one just like him.
Atomic Rain 14th
Nowhere To Hide unknown
Friesan Fire 13th-- Saez guessed wrong, the horse was fine, but congrats for protecting the horse! Learned a lesson a year ago, perhaps.
Flying Private 3rd--did his breathing lock up again?

Here is the rank per recent work(from 45 days out):

Mine That Bird--17th-add his productive slow days and he's near #1.
Pioneer Of The Nile 3rd
Musket Man 8th
Papa Clem 1st
Chocolate Candy 2nd
Summer Bird 15th
Joint In The Dance 14th
Regal Ransom unknown
West Side Bernie 18th
General Quarters 13th
Dunkirk 12th
Hold Me Back 16th
Advice 7th
Desert Party unknown
Mr. Hot Stuff 6th
Atomic Rain 16th
Nowhere To Hide unknown
Friesan Fire 11th
Flying Private 5th

Mine That Bird: A Debt To Carl Nafzger?

We've seen that Birdstone/Grindstone act before. There were two Birdstones in that 2007 Oct. Fasig Tipton catalogue, as I'm recollecting. I would know, since I bought a horse out of that sale by internet-telephone bidding (thanks again to my Fasig Tipton phone bidder, Max.). My best recollect is that I (unwisely) scratched out both as potentially too expensive for further consideration, and also, if recalling right, for unraced dams, both Birdstones. Undoubtedly had I taken the (enormous) bother and traveled to Lexington for the sale I'd have spotted Mine That Bird but would have failed in the purchase as I had only $9000.00. (Note to myself--serious about the Derby, go to the sale in person.).

Can any sense be made out of this performance? Those of us who believe horses run for a reason will be looking for "causes" missed by even the true experts. For myself it all started with that April 25 video at KY Derby.com, the only 4 minute galloping clip of any of the horses, showing some horrible exercise riding (in initial part of gallop), so bad that I just flipped to the next video. I declined to watch what I considered as, understandably for MTB and his New Mexico trainer, the worst exercise rider on the grounds butchering a ride on a horse with no chance.

But, oh my! Now that I look at the whole 4 minutes, horse and rider recovered to show Mine That Bird both with "some stuff", and that MTB, unlike most of the rest of the field, was getting something out of his slow day galloping. This was other than a horse that was being trained out of his stall (check out 4/29 post!).

The second (rather huge) hint comes on 4/27 with the Calvin Borel breeze. Very decent coming down the stretch showing a strong, coordinated smaller horse who distracts with a surprise lead change before the wire, causing thought process: typically badly trained. What happens thereafter probably is crucial. As I continued to watch I had at the time the (fleeting) thought: Shades of Street Sense. After the horse crossed the wire Borel maintained speed clear into the back stretch were the video ends, but obviously was still going fast by the 4.5f pole. Same exact thing Nafzger instructed Borel to do with Street Sense in the pre-derby breezes. Clocked at 5f the breezes were in fact mile breezes. Borel had retained this and was still doing Nafzger training with Rachel Alexandra (who's last breeze shows the same), and his Derby mount. Essentially it was at this point that Borel had taken over the training. We may imagine the probable intellectual quality of Borel's pre-breeze instructions, undoubtedly instantly forgotten by Borel.

The Derby ride then proved to "out Street Sense" Street Sense. And again, analysis shows, this is other than an accident. MTB was tremendously aided by Borel's unwitting taking back of the horse in the initial stages. Out of the gate, just subsequent to their inappropriate warm ups, the rest of the field immediately worked harder than normal due to ground conditions. Borel, however unwittingly, took MTB back and just floated along slowly for 4f allowing Mine That Bird to actually warm up for his run.

By the time Borel took off at the 5.5 pole on the backstretch lead change, exactly as he'd done with Street Sense as taught to him by Carl Nafzger, the horse was physiologically ready, and the rest of the field well on their way to being spent due to lack of appropriate warm up. MTB at this point in the race is already working with a big advantage from the skillful ride.

The Borel type run (and, forget for a moment the rail hugging aspect of it) is going to be looked at more and more. It's actually a Nafzger run--I feel sure it emanates from him--I've long wondered why conditioned horses declined to start a long steady run at the 6f pole from the rear using the initial stages of the race as a further warm up. A trained horse can make a long steady, faster than the field, run. BUT there's a big big additional advantage to this--the concept of "passing horses". Horses love to pass other horses. They get a charge out of it. Passing horses on the back stretch--instead of running with the field--makes the horse competitive. In this type of run the horse has the dual advantage of proper warm up and being very "into the race".

This all still provides incomplete explanation as MTB also showed extreme speed vis a vis the rest of the field. Borel said there was a rail bias on Derby day, which, if true, would be huge. The remaining factor is that we know that big horses struggle in mud. Their hoofs pick up more of the wet heavy surface with every single stride than a smaller hoofed horse. The smaller hoofed horse has the additional advantage that its lesser weight causes it to sink less deeply into the heavy surface. This was a field of big (and several heavy) horses, many of whom slogged bravely through this surface. Where decently trained, superbly ridden MTB carrying Bill Pressy's heart rate monitor my guess--it would show MTB had a 25% "work" advantage on every horse trained by other than Zito and Breen strictly due to hoof size, horse size, and horse weight. The horse has a little talent too. He's a Birdstone. Everybody keeps missing that. Be interesting also to know the style of shoe that allowed that performance.

Congrats to Mine That Bird, Bennie Woolley Jr. and Double Eagle Ranch, Needam TBs and Lamantia Blackburn, and Calvin Borrell and Mr. or Ms. X who bought the horse out of 2007 Oct. Fasig Tipton. Forget odds, lack of faith and disbelief. Is that the most amazing Derby performance by a horse, ever???

French philosopher Renee' Descartes, whose years were 1596 to 1650, coined the phrase "cogito ergo sum" (I think, therefore I am), and spent half of his life in bed.

Housekeeper: "Renee' what are you doing in bed until noon again?"

Descartes: "Thinking".

You see the relevance to this year's Derby. It would take almost a Cartesian thought process to sort out this field. Being somewhat short myself of that standard, nevertheless, a final stab to separate the nine left standing on this blog due to superior training.

9. Papa Clem: The stoutest trained horse in the field, and would have loved to see him run with the Thurs. breeze a day earlier. Believe they miscalculated and failed with rider control on the final breeze. As it is they're over the top both both for performance and injury. RR sentimental favorite

8. Flying Private--will pay the price for Lukas powder puff training.

7. Musket Man--a better horse than those behind him. The mud and the last work too far out will do him in.

6. Advice: (Big) Dark horse. I think he'll outrun Dunkirk.

5. Friesan Fire: fast turnover, ground flicking stride provides huge advantage in the ground conditions. Yet, unable to ignore the FF training substantially less deep for the year and recently than the competitive horses here. Other than a fan of 2 miles of Larry Jones clomp gallop since Monday. Horse unprepared for fast final breeze. Good run falls short.

4. Mr. Hot Stuff: You can tell by the handling that they're preparing for the Belmont. Had this monster been set out to win, he'd have arrived in Churchill sooner and we'd notice a more chilly Eion Harty demeanor. The one most likely to be compromised by the ground conditions and his trainer's self admitted lack of focus. Could also run away with the race, but avoiding this pick here.

3. I Want Revenge: Will in the final analysis pay for his trainer's late let up in speed training. (Edit after the scratch: and, apparently, two miles of work pre derby on a heavy track.)

1. Chocolate Candy: dead heat.

1. Pioneer Of The Nile: dead heat.

Pioneer gets the nod. Sophisticated, knowledgeable trainer with the mojo wins by photo. This should be a rider's race, and a "winner's race". The multiple winners will compete with very similar experiences. The money, in the end, should be on the two best conditioned horses with a healthy dose of respect for Mr. Hot Stuff.

Wet Derby?

Not To The Swift blog beat me to it. Weather Saturday changes everything. Horses carrying 20 lbs of mud and water, horses with flat feet, big hoofs, heavy horses, horses with big strides breaking away under the surface per Steve Haskin's piece, horses on the inside in deeper going, will be up against it, presumably. Trainers of the nine left standing on this blog (due to superior training--see last post), will plan for the weather with their trips. Interesting jockeying for position, perhaps. RR picks later.

Correlations Between Training/Injury/Results

The 2008 Derby results showed little correlation with pre Derby training in terms of training volume(breeze/races) for the year or recent speed work. Distracted by 8 Belles I never returned to look at possible reasons for lack of correlation between training and results in last year's Derby.

There was in 2008 high correlation between inadequate training and injury. Several of the 2008 Derby horses perceived inadequately trained exited the Derby with injuries, and all of the adequately trained horses came out healthy. In 2009, thankfully, fewer horses have inadequate training, though we have some of the usual subjects. The same outfit that gave us Momba's slab fracture and the George Washington tragedy now pushes late developing and very vulnerable Dunkirk into a race for which he both has inadequate racing prep, but also shallow training. Add Zito, as always, and General Quarters. Add to these concerns over change of surface from polytrack to muddy dirt for several. I have other injury concerns. My policy is to avoid alarums except in cases of gross negligence by my own perceptions(see 8 Belles).

But, on to performance. This post completes the analysis of the "training variable", and with hope of fine tuning in the other performance variables Saturday morning.

Group them in five tiers them based on PPs, and video observations:

Tier #5 (inadequate training)

West Side Bernie
Atomic Rain
No Where To Hide
Hold Me Back
Summer Bird
General Quarters

Tier #4 (adequate, average training with last breeze 4/25 (perceived as) too far out to make the horse competitive--talent could/might/probably will fail to overcome)

Musket Man
Regal Ransom
Desert Party
Dunkirk

Tier #3(Average training, could run, but other deficiencies, talent e.g.)
Mine That Bird
Join In The Dance

Tier #2 (Well trained or average trained with last work tab after 4/25, but without the particularly well conceived work tabs of Tier #1--i.e. "some" problems that might crop up to bite.)
Papa Clem
I Want Revenge
Friesan Fire
Advice

Tier #1 (logical, well conceived recent work tabs designed for performance on Derby Day)

Mr. Hot Stuff
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer Of The Nile
Flying Private

On a normal Churchill surface this Derby could set up to into an all time cavalry charge quarter pole to wire due to the number of similarly well trained colts. There's frankly very little difference between the Tier #1 and #2 horses except in the nuances, and to that we add Musket Man from Tier #4.

Separating these 9 colts on training is difficult due to similarities, but there's a high degree of comfort that the winner comes from these 9 related solely to their superior training. Other factors-variables that might influence, next post.